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Daily Archives: November 1, 2012
21 Business Blogging Tips From the Pros | North Salem Realtor
At American Express, Warnings About the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ | Waccabuc NY Realtor
2:14 p.m. | Updated
After the widespread (and highly visible) damage caused by Hurricane Sandy this week, worries about the fiscal cliff may not be at the forefront of most people’s minds.
The economic calamity is a lot less visual (though The Wall Street Journal did come up with this clever video), and the destructive force seems somehow in the faraway future.
But companies are already warning investors about the harsh effects of the fiscal cliff. American Express’s 10-Q quarterly report, which was filed Wednesday, included a new dire warning about the rapidly approaching year-end deadline.
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“The company expects that it will take some time for the U.S. economy to get back onto a steady, upward growth track,” the filing said. “Moreover, in the absence of legislative action, there continues to be growing concerns about the potential impact of the ‘fiscal cliff’ arising from scheduled federal spending cuts and tax increases set for the end of 2012.”
The statement goes into more detail than what the firm’s chief financial officer, Daniel T. Henry, said during the quarterly earnings call two weeks ago. Then, an analyst for the Telsey Advisory Group asked if there might be a larger impact, specifically in terms of the company’s spending on marketing.
“If things were to be better, we know exactly what we’d do. And if things were to be worse, we know exactly what we’re going to do. So we will monitor this closely,” Mr. Henry said, according to a transcript of the call. Marina Hoffmann Norville, a spokeswoman for the company, declined to comment beyond what was in the Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
American Express isn’t the only large company to mention the fiscal cliff in filings with the S.E.C. But others have been more nuanced or noncommittal on the effects. In its quarterly earnings release on Thursday, the payroll processing company Automatic Data Processing noted that “there is concern in the U.S. surrounding the fiscal cliff.” In its quarterly earnings release on Wednesday, Visa, the giant credit card company, included the “so-called fiscal cliff” in a list of economic factors that might affect the company.
Also on Thursday, Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor who just took over as president and chief executive of the Financial Services Roundtable, issued its own warning in a letter sent to President Obama and Congress.
“We urge Congress and the administration to deal with the fiscal cliff in a two-pronged approach: First, bridge over the fiscal cliff as soon as possible to minimize negative economic consequences. Second, address the federal budget deficit in a comprehensive and bipartisan manner in early 2013 to put the U.S. on a path for sustained growth,” Mr. Pawlenty wrote.
But if the Dec. 31 deadline moves closer without any indication of resolution, companies are likely to step up their disclosures in S.E.C. filings.
Michelle Leder is the editor of footnoted.com, a Web site that takes a closer look at companies’ regulatory filings.This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: November 1, 2012
An earlier version of this post misstated the fiscal quarters that were reported on this week by Automatic Data Processing and Visa. A.D.P.’s report was for its first quarter of 2013 and Visa’s report was for its fourth quarter of 2012, in both cases not the third quarter of 2012.
The Fiscal Cliff’s Threat to National Security | Cross River Homes
Both candidates for president of the United States are clearly mindful of the potential for a razor-close election next week. Mitt Romney has been talking more about his bipartisan credentials as governor of Massachusetts while President Barack Obama, out of the blue, said the automatic spending cuts set to take effect early next year “will not happen.”
This is contrary to many clear public statements from the president over the past year. Obama has repeatedly vowed to veto any legislation that would repeal the spending cuts if the deal does not include tax hikes on the wealthy.
But the president recently doubled down on his statement from the foreign policy presidential debate after his advisers tried to walk it back. Obama told the Des Moines Register, “I am absolutely confident that we can get what is the equivalent of the grand bargain…which is $2.50 worth of cuts for every dollar in spending, and work to reduce the cost of health programs.”
[See a collection of political cartoons on the 2012 campaign.]
Many in Washington, including Speaker of the House John Boehner of Ohio, had long ago written off the likelihood of any sort of major deal. But there have been groups of policymakers meeting to craft the outlines of any-sized bargain to avert the impending fiscal cliff. In the Senate, a bipartisan group of eight senators led by Republican Lamar Alexander of Texas and Democrat Michael Bennet of Colorado has been talking about potential frameworks for a deal targeting up to $4 trillion in debt reduction over the next decade.
One popular point of departure has been the Bowles-Simpson report, recently touted by Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois and Chris Van Hollen Maryland and Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona. One of the key tenets of their plan is a tax reform program that would lower rates while closing loopholes, thereby generating new revenues from the top income brackets while stimulating economic growth.
Despite this momentum for a deal, Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, chairman of the Senate Democratic Policy Committee, recently rejected this approach. He instead has called for tax rates upon the top two income brackets to be frozen in place after the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of the year. This approach—coupled with his plan to increase capital gains taxes—is likely to be unwelcome among Republicans.
[See a collection of political cartoons on Congress.]
If Schumer’s position is the default Democratic starting point in negotiations, prospects for a deal look bleak. Speaker Boehner is not optimistic, recently calling a lame-duck grand bargain “difficult” and “probably not appropriate” given the large amount of retiring members who would have a disproportionate sway on the future of the country.
All of this signals that any solution to the fiscal cliff would be complicated. Congress has been dealing with the same set of problems since the near-government shutdown in the spring of 2011. The reality is that even if Congress were to pull off a miracle deal, the military is still largely on the hook for more spending cuts. As Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin has proposed, defense dollars will surely contribute yet again to any new compromise.
[See a collection of political cartoons on defense spending.]
What would prolong the damage is a messy muddle through the fiscal cliff, not fully addressing it or not going forward with it. If Congress, say, tries to buy Washington extra time to negotiate a bigger deal, the economy will linger under uncertainty and consumers and business will continue to show they lack confidence. Punting on the fiscal cliff only defers problems. It does not address the fundamentals of the size, role, and scope of federal spending and debt accumulation.
Worse yet is the possibility that elected officials could choose to deliberately go over the fiscal cliff and then try to patch up the damage after the fact. This would be especially problematic for the defense budget as those in uniform; defense civilians; and shipbuilding, aerospace, and defense manufacturers would all be affected; costs for programs would rise anyway and not save any money; and some projects deferred would become projects canceled regardless of action taken later.
A common denominator in all these scenarios is that averting the fiscal cliff does not mean that things would automatically improve. The only silver bullet remains a comprehensive debt reduction deal.
via usnews.com
Rates stay low in Bedford NY – 3.39% average | Bedford NY Real Estate
Mortgage rates at 3.39%
Cinemek Storyboard Composer: Mobile Storyboarding iPad App Review | Bedford NY Realtor
One of the most important aspects of pre-production is to create a storyboard. While having a script perfected is important, it is just as important to have a storyboard before you start shooting so you don’t miss any essential shots. This will prevent you from wasting time and money. In this week’s Reel Rebel we look at an app by Cinemek to help you easily put together a useable storyboard using your iPhone and iPad mobile device.
Reviewing the Storyboard Composer App by Cinemek:
If you are an iPhone user, a great app to use for storyboarding is called Storyboard Composer by Cinemek ($14.99 in iTunes App Store). Storyboard Composer is the world’s first mobile story boarding application. You don’t need to know how to draw and there are no complicated programs to learn. It works with pictures from your photo library, so your first step is to take some pictures. Think about how you want your shot composed, set up a rough version of the scene in your home or on your location if you can make that happen, and then snap some photos. That is something you can handle on your own.
Then the fun part comes, you get to dive into the app. To load your pictures tap—Menu, New Storyboard, and select photo library. Then all you need to do is click on any of the pictures you want to load up for your piece.
When you click cancel to close the screen, you’ll now see all of your photos on the canvas. If they’re not in the right order, just drag them around until they tell the story properly. This isn’t difficult at all.
It doesn’t matter if there aren’t actors in your pictures. Just click on the photo you want to add someone to, click on these little people, and you have instant actors. Just fiddle with the settings at the bottom until they match your characters as closely as possible. Once you’re done adding people into your scene, add some motion to your shots.
Storyboard Composer has made it extremely easy to simulate camera moves. Just select your shot, pick what kind of move you want to add from the choices on the left, and adjust it intuitively with your fingers. When you play it back, magic happens. You see what your final shot should look like. You can even set a duration time to make sure you get the timing right.
When you get everything in place, you can playback all your clips in order and see a rough idea of what your final product will be. Make any final tweaks and then either export a movie file, or export a PDF to keep with you on set to keep you on track and keep you from forgetting any of your shots. You can have your first story board up and running in a matter of minutes. Storyboard Composer allows professionals and students to portray their vision to others in an easily controllable and transportable format. Overall, Cinemek has provided people who can’t draw at all an easy way to organize their storyboards so they can run shoots as professionally and efficiently as possible.
via reelseo.com
3 Ways Podcasting Can Land You Customers | Chappaqua Realtor
Is your Business Right for Pinterest? 5 Ways to Mold it to the New Trend | Pound Ridge NY Real Estate
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Bedford Patch Storm Hub: Schools Cancelled All Week | Bedford Hills Homes
Resources and Information
Bedford
As of Wednesday night, Bedford is still in a state of emergency and officials are requesting that no one travel on any town roads until further notice.
NYSEG has made limited quantities of dry ice available to municipalities. On the occasions that the Town of Bedford obtains dry ice, it is distributed at the Bedford Town House in Bedford Hills. These distributions are unscheduled and are subject to NYSEG making the ice available. Call 914-666-6530 or 914-666-4534 for availability.
Warming centers are available at each of the three fire departments. All non-essential travel on roads in the Town of Bedford is prohibited. The Town House will be closed this afternoon and Tuesday, reopening at 8:30am on Wednesday.
If overnight sheltering is necessary, the nearest Red Cross shelter is located at the Boys & Girls Club, 351 Main Street, Mount Kisco. Call 211 to make arrangements.
Pound Ridge
The town has dry ice supplies while they last; call 914-764-5511 to confirm availability. Follow Pound Ridge on Twitter https://twitter.com/PoundRidgeNY for the latest status updates. You can also visit their town alert page to see the latest notifications.
Lewisboro
The town is still in a state of emergency as of Wednesday evening. There are three hot showers available on Thursday and Friday from 9 a.m. – 5 p.m. at John Jay High School. Bring your own towels and soap. You can bring your devices to charge as well.
Town hall is being used as Lewisboro’s emergency command center; the phone number is (914) 977-8043. This number may be used for any to obtain information and to report such incidents as blocked roads. For emergency calls, locals are directed to use 9-1-1. If you are in need of alternate shelter, please call (914) 977-8043, and arrangements will be made for you.
Residents are encouraged to use the town’s website to obtain information and resources. In the event the host server goes down, an alternate website has been set up at lewisboroemergency.com.
Have photos of your neighborhood and Sandy’s damage? Share them here.
Road closures and power outages
Bedford Supervisor Lee Roberts said the town has not yet been assigned a dedicated line crew to work with Bedford highway crews to ensure live power is cut before trees are cleared. Click here for more on Bedford-Katonah Road road status.
Over 28,000 homes and businesses in Westchester are without power.
Click here for the latest press release from NYSEG, which says the wait for power will be “lengthy.”
Outages as of Thursday 7 a.m.
Town Number of Customers Number of Customers without power Bedford 6,657 6,650 Pound Ridge 2,365 2,361 Katonah 2,414 2,409 Lewisboro 5,461 5,448 Somers 9,087 6,079 Click on the NYSEG outage map for the latest in local power outages.
To report downled lines, call ConEdison – 800-752-6633 and NYSEG at 800-572-1131 (electric); 800-572-1121 (gas). To report a life-threatening emergency or no power, by telephone, contact NYSEG Electrical emergency at 800-572-1131.
Dial 211 for up-to-date road closure information. Bedford police request that locals do not call police to inquire about road conditions. Dispatch staff will likely be unable to commit time to discussing road conditions.
Cancellations and closures
- Bedford Central Schools and Katonah Lewisboro are closed through the end of the week. Follow Bedford Central at https://twitter.com/BCSDNOTES to stay on top of the latest news during the power outage. K-L will send out communications through its email/phone blast system.
- The Bedford Hills Turkey Shoot has been cancelled.
- The Lewisboro Volunteer Ambulance Corps Live Auction has been postponed until Nov. 17
- Candidate night at Le Chateau is cancelled.
- Ladies Night at the Vista Fire Department is cancelled.
- SAT testing at Bedford Central Schools is cancelled for Saturday.
- The K-L SEPTA “Differences Day” is cancelled.
- The Mount Kisco Medical Group is closing all offices and emergency care centers at 1 p.m. Monday; all patients should call 244Mkmg to check on their appointment status rest of week, and should call 911 for emergencies.
- Local libraries (in Bedford and in Lewisboro) are still closed.
- The Katonah Museum of Art will remain closed until Tuesday.
For more information, click here for our “who’s open, stocked, selling” list.
Check back with Patch Thursday for updates here.
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Four Sandy-related deaths in the region
Hurricane Sandy has claimed four lives in the Lower Hudson Valley.
A tree crashed through a home in Pearl River at about 6 p.m. Monday, killing a 51-year-old man and placing his family in the hospital.
In North Salem, a tree came down Monday evening, killing two middle school-aged boys.
A motorist on the Sprain Brook Parkway in Greenburgh died due to storm conditions Monday evening, as well, according to state police.
The storm—an amalgam of several foul weather patterns—brought its worst rains and winds through the region between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. Monday.
The National Hurricane Center was no longer labeling Sandy a hurricane as of 7 p.m. Monday, as it teetered on the edge of the northeast coastline—but the squall still held amazing power.
Nearly all municipalities in Westchester, Rockland and Putnam declared states of emergency, with evacuations in effect in Port Chester, Piermont, Yonkers and other villages and cities. Hundreds of thousands throughout the three counties will be without electricity for up to a week, power companies have said.
For the latest on everything Sandy, stay with Patch.
Patch’s full coverage
- Share Sandy Photos on Patch
- NYSEG Power Outage a ‘Long Duration’
- Volunteers are Tops in Sandy Recovery
- Who’s Open, Stocked and Selling?
- Road Closures in Bedford
- Bedford Declares State of Emergency
- Lewisboro Declares State of Emergency
- Flights Expected to Cease, PATH to Shut Down
- MTA Suspending Metro North, Subways, Buses as of 7 PM
- Red Cross Launches Multi-State Response
- AG Warns Against Price Gouging
- School Closings in the Hudson Valley
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Do you know of an event cancellation? Please add it to the comment section attached to this article and update the event in our free Patch calendar to notify the community.
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Home prices continue steady rise | South Salem NY Real Estate
The 10- and 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices posted monthly increases for the fifth month in a row in August, according to a report released today.
Seventeen of the 20 metros tracked by the index posted annual gains in August, with home prices up by an average of 2.0 percent from a year ago.
All but one of the markets tracked in the 20-city composite index posted gains from July to August. The 20-city composite was up 0.9 percent from July on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
A home price index maintained by the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed home prices up 4.7 percent from a year ago. That index — which tracks homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — showed home prices returning to June 2004 levels, but still down 15.9 percent from an April 2007 high.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index shows home prices approximately 35 percent below a June/July 2006 peak. But August’s numbers indicate to industry watchers a positive position for the housing market.
“The sustained good news in home prices over the past five months makes us optimistic for continued recovery in the housing market,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement. “Single family housing starts are 43 percent ahead of last year’s pace, existing and new home sales are also up, the inventory of homes for sale continues to drop and consumer mortgage default rates are reaching new lows.”
Writing on his blog, Calculated Risk, Bill McBride called the recent change to year-over-year annual increases for the Case-Shiller indices a “significant story.”
“The year-over-year gain is better than it sounds,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for home marketplace Trulia. Since the composite indices only focus on a few metros, some of which have been hard hit in terms of home pricing, the indices have actually “been understating year-over-year national price growth,” he said.
Source: Calculated RiskMetros in the 20-city composite posting annual declines were Atlanta (-6.1 percent), New York (-2.3 percent), and Chicago (-1.6 percent).
Metro area July 2012 index level Change from July Change from a year ago Atlanta 95.80 1.8% -6.1% Boston 158.27 0.7% 1.7% Charlotte 116.58 0.6% 2.8% Chicago 117.45 0.7% -1.6% Cleveland 103.04 1.0% 1.1% Dallas 121.34 0.1% 3.6% Denver 133.48 0.5% 5.5% Detroit 79.18 2.3% 7.6% Las Vegas 96.04 1.6% 0.9% Los Angeles 173.02 1.3% 2.1% Miami 150.12 1.0% 6.7% Minneapolis 124.65 1.2% 7.4% New York 166.32 0.7% -2.3% Phoenix 119.28 1.8% 18.8% Portland 140.80 0.5% 3.6% San Diego 157.84 0.9% 1.9% San Francisco 142.37 0.5% 5.3% Seattle 141.69 -0.1% 3.4% Tampa 134.91 0.4% 4.2% Washington, D.C. 194.00 1.1% 4.3% Composite-10 158.62 0.9% 1.3% Composite-20 145.87 0.9% 2.0% Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Fiserv.
via inman.com