S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series, and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.4%, up from 12.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 14.9% year-over-year gain, up from 13.4% in the previous month.
Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in April.
Phoenix led the way with a 22.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 21.6% increase and Seattle with a 20.2% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2021 versus the year ending March 2021.
The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for Phoenix and San Diego.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively in April. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.6%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. In April, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
“Housing prices accelerated their surge in April 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index marked its eleventh consecutive month of accelerating prices with a 14.6% gain from year-ago levels, up from 13.3% in March. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 14.4% and 14.9%, respectively). The market’s strength is broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more in the 12 months ended in April than they had gained in the 12 months ended in March. “April’s performance was truly extraordinary. The 14.6% gain in the National Composite is literally the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data.
Housing prices in all 20 cities rose; price gains in all 20 cities accelerated; price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quartile of historical performance. In 15 cities, price gains were in top decile. Five cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – joined the National Composite in recording their all-time highest 12-month gains.
“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes.
April’s data continue to be consistent with this hypothesis. This demand surge may simply represent an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in locational preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. More time and data will be required to analyze this question.
“Phoenix’s 22.3% increase led all cities for the 23rd consecutive month, with San Diego (+21.6%) and Seattle (+20.2%) providing strong competition. Although prices were strongest in the West (+17.2%) and Southwest (+16.9%), every region logged double-digit gains.”
The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 14.6% annual gain in April 2021. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 14.4% and 14.9% respectively.
The following chart shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of April 2021, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are exceeding their winter 2007 levels.
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current Index Level, Date, Level, Date, From Peak (%), Level, From Trough (%), From Peak (%) National 184.61 Jul-06 134.00 Feb-12 -27.4% 249.04 85.9% 34.9% 20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1% 257.10 91.8% 24.5% 10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3% 270.21 84.5% 19.4%
Table 2 below summarizes the results for April 2021. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data. April 2021, April/March, March/February, 1-Year Metropolitan Area Level, Change (%), Change (%), Change (%) Atlanta 177.59 1.7% 1.8% 12.3% Boston 267.60 2.5% 2.6% 16.2% Charlotte 196.89 2.4% 2.6% 15.0% Chicago 160.29 1.9% 1.7% 9.9% Cleveland 147.79 1.9% 1.6% 13.3% Dallas 226.77 2.9% 2.8% 15.9% Denver 265.83 2.7% 3.3% 15.4% Detroit 147.70 2.2% 1.3% 13.3% Las Vegas 225.33 2.5% 2.3% 12.5% Los Angeles 339.18 1.8% 2.4% 14.7% Miami 287.84 2.4% 1.9% 14.2% Minneapolis 206.33 2.2% 1.8% 11.3% New York 232.01 0.8% 0.8% 13.5% Phoenix 252.55 3.3% 3.4% 22.3% Portland 283.79 2.1% 2.6% 15.4% San Diego 331.47 3.2% 3.4% 21.6% San Francisco 317.81 3.1% 3.3% 15.1% Seattle 324.88 3.1% 4.7% 20.2% Tampa 266.20 2.3% 1.9% 15.4% Washington 273.10 2.3% 2.1% 13.6% Composite-10 270.21 1.9% 2.0% 14.4% Composite-20 257.10 2.1% 2.2% 14.9% U.S. National 249.04 2.1% 2.0% 14.6%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through April 2021
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped in April as prices surged amid a tight supply of houses, which is threatening to slow the housing market momentum.
New home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. March’s sales pace was revised lower to 917,000 units from the previously reported 1.021 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, at a rate of 970,000 units in April.
New home sales are drawn from a sample of houses selected from building permits and tend to be volatile on a month-to-month basis. Sales surged 48.3% on a year-on-year basis in April. Monthly sales declined in the populous South, the Midwest and Northeast, but rose in the West.
The market for new homes is being boosted by near record low inventory of previously owned houses, especially entry level homes. The COVID-19 pandemic has fueled demand for spacious and more expensive accommodations as millions of Americans work from home and take classes remotely.
But the virus has disrupted labor supply at saw mills and ports, causing shortages of lumber and other raw materials.
That is limiting builders’ ability to ramp up construction of new homes to plug the inventory gap. The input shortages are raising new home prices as well. The National Association of Realtors reported last week that home resales dropped for a third straight month in April as prices surged to a record high because of the tight supply.
The median new house price soared 20.1% from a year earlier to $372,400 in April. Sales were concentrated in the $200,000-$399,000 price range. Sales below the $200,000 price bracket, the sought-after segment of the market, accounted for a mere 2% of transactions last month.
There were 316,000 new homes on the market last month, up from 304,000 in March. At April’s sales pace it would take 4.4 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 4.0 months in March. A six-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
About 73% of homes sold last month were either under construction or yet to be built.
Existing home sales fell 3.7% month-over-month (m/m) in March to an annual rate of 6.01 million units, a seven-month low, versus expectations of a decline to 6.14 million units from February’s upwardly revised 6.24 million rate. However, existing home sales were up 12.3% year-over-year (y/y).
Compared to last month, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said buying activity in all the major regions fell, but all regions rose y/y. Sales of single-family homes and purchases of condominiums and co-ops were both down month-over-month (m/m), but higher y/y. The median existing home price jumped 17.2% from a year ago to $329,100, marking the 108th straight month of y/y gains as prices rose in every region. Unsold inventory came in at a 2.1-months pace at the current sales rate, nudging off last month’s 2.0-months pace, and down sharply from the 3.3-months pace a year earlier. Existing home sales reflect contract closings instead of signings and account for a large majority of the home sales market.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, ” Consumers are facing much higher home prices, rising mortgage rates, and falling affordability, however, buyers are still actively in the market,” adding that, “The sales for March would have been measurably higher, had there been more inventory,” he added. “Days-on-market are swift, multiple offers are prevalent, and buyer confidence is rising.
U.S. Reps. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer on Thursday introduced the SALT Deductibility Act that would remove the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions imposed in 2017 under the federal tax reform law.
The SALT Cap was highly criticized by New York politicians, as well as the New York State real estate industry, including the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors.
“When it comes to SALT, if you think Westchester and Rockland families needed and deserved this money before the coronavirus took hold, the stakes are even higher now because the cap is costing this community tens-of-thousands of dollars they could be using amid the crisis… Double taxing hardworking homeowners is plainly unfair. We need to bring our federal dollars back home to cushion the blow of this virus—and this harmful SALT cap—has dealt so many homeowners and families locally,” said U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer.
The SALT Deductibility Act would remove the cap on the SALT deduction instituted in 2017 as part of then President Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and would allow New Yorkers to fully deduct their state and local taxes from their federal taxes.
“Donald Trump cut taxes for billionaires and big corporations and paid for it on the backs of hardworking families in Westchester and Rockland counties, where we pay the highest property taxes in the entire nation,” said Rep. Jones at a press conference announcing the introduction of the SALT bill. “That must change. Restoring the SALT deduction is a necessary first step to creating an equitable tax system – one where we put money back in the pockets of working people.”
Congressman Jones’ said the passage of the bill will bring needed relief to his constituents in Westchester and Rockland residents who pay the highest property taxes of any Congressional District in the entire nation, with Westchester ranked first and Rockland ranked second.
Others who praised the bill’s introduction were U.S, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who said, “The reinstating of the SALT Deduction will ensure that New York families have more money in their pockets, get much-needed tax relief and will once again be treated fairly.”
New York State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins noted that over the last three years, “Trump’s unfair attack on Blue States has cost New Yorkers over $30 billion, while wealthy corporations saw tax breaks.”
“I want to thank US Congressman Mondaire Jones for his work, in conjunction with US Senator Chuck Schumer, to restore the State and Local Tax or ‘SALT’ deduction,” said Westchester County Executive George Latimer. “This federal tax law is not only double taxation, but it also unfairly targets communities like Westchester County–and every homeowner in this county is a victim. In Westchester, where the average home is valued at $691,392.00, our homes are our greatest asset and this cap is a hit to our wallet. We cannot stand for this—and we will not. We won’t stop fighting until we overturn the SALT deduction cap.”
In other legislative news, Spectrum News reported that two state lawmakers had introduced a bill to tax capital gains in New York as a means to increase taxes on the state’s wealthiest residents. The bill backed by Sen. Gustavo Rivera and Assemblyman Ron Kim that would tax investment income could raise an estimated $7 billion in revenue for the state.
“Mortgage rates remain at record lows, resisting their typical correlation to Treasury yields, which have recently been moving higher,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Mortgage spreads – the difference between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury rate – are declining from their elevated levels earlier this year. Although today’s mortgage spread is about 1.8 percent and still has some room to move down if the 10-year Treasury continues to rise, it’s encouraging to see that the spread is almost back to normal levels.”
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.71 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 10, 2020, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.73 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.26 percent with an average 0.6 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.19 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
“Mortgage rates jumped this week as a result of positive news about a COVID-19 vaccine,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Despite this rise, mortgage rates remain about a percentage point below a year ago and the low rate environment is supportive of both purchase and refinance demand. Heading into late fall, the housing market continues to grow and buttress the economy.”
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.84 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending November 12, 2020, up from last week when it averaged 2.78 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.34 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.32. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.20 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully-amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
According to the data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), stucco was the most common principal exterior material on new single-family homes started in 2019 (27 percent), followed by Vinyl siding (25 percent), fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard (21 percent), brick or brick veneer (20 percent). Far smaller shares of single-family homes started last year had wood or wood products (5 percent) or stone or rock or other stone materials (1 percent) as the principal exterior wall material.
The Census Bureau’s SOC data is available by the nine census divisions and there are substantial differences in the use of siding across divisions. Vinyl siding was the most widely used primary exterior material in 4 out of 9 census divisions. In the Middle Atlantic and New England, vinyl siding was used in 75 percent and 68 percent of the new homes started in 2019. In the East and West North Central divisions, vinyl siding accounted for 62 and 44 percent respectively. You should head to the Quality Built Exteriors site if you’re planning to install vinyl siding for your home.
Stucco was the most common widely used as the primary exterior wall material in the Pacific, Mountain and South Atlantic divisions in 2019: 57 percent, 52 percent and 38 percent, respectively, of the new single-family homes started in those areas used it. Brick or brick veneer was the top choice in East and West South Central divisions. In the West South Central, 62 percent of the new single-family homes started in 2019 used Brick or brick veneer as the primary exterior material, compared to 44 percent in East South Central division.
The number of apartments for rent, or listing inventory, more than doubled over last year and set a record for the 14 years since data started being collected, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.
While hundreds of thousands of residents left the city in March and April in the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, brokers and landlords hoped many would start returning in July and August.
July’s weakness, and what brokers say is already a slow August, suggests that Manhattan’s real estate and economic troubles could extend well into the fall or beyond.
NYC apartment vacancies hit a new all-time high as renters leave the city amid the pandemic
The number of empty apartments for rent in Manhattan soared to their highest level in recent history, topping 13,000, as residents fled the city and landlords struggled to find new tenants.
The number of apartments for rent, or listing inventory, more than doubled over last year and set a record for the 14 years since data started being collected, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. As the number of apartments listed for rent hit 13,117, the number of new leases signed fell by 23%.
July also saw the largest fall in rental rates in nearly a decade, dropping 10%. Landlords are now offering an average of 1.7 months of free rent to try to lure tenants, according to the report, which is also a recent high. The top moments in business and politics – wrapped with exclusive color and context – right in your ears
While hundreds of thousands of residents left the city in March and April in the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, brokers and landlords hoped many would start returning in July and August, as the city’s lockdown eased and brokers could start showing apartments again. July and August are usually the busiest rental months of the year, as families get ready for school. But July’s weakness, and what brokers say is already a slow August, suggests that Manhattan’s real estate and economic troubles could extend well into the fall or beyond.
“The outbound migration is higher than the inbound migration right now,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and research company.
Manhattan apartment rentals are still far from cheap. The average rental price for a two-bedroom apartment is $4,620. Yet the so-called effective median rent — what people pay with concessions — fell 10% over last year, according to Miller. Aside from offering free rent, brokers are offering to pay broker fees, adding gift cards to Home Depot and other retailers, and offering initial cleaning services, brokers say.
All segments of the market, from the high end to the low end, saw declines. And all areas of Manhattan had a sharp drop in new leases. But the Upper East Side was hit hardest, with a 39% fall in new leases.
The surge in empty apartments in the nation’s largest rental market is likely to have ripple effects throughout the economy. Housing experts estimate that about half of Manhattan’s apartment rentals are owned by small business owners, rather than large publicly traded companies or the big, well-funded real estate families. As the small landlords lose income, they may be unable to pay property taxes, which is New York City’s largest source of revenue. A drop in property taxes could result in cuts to services, which could make New York less attractive to new residents.
“This could be a difficult couple of years for landlords,” Miller said.
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.07 percent, the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971.
“Mortgage rates continue to slowly drift downward with a distinct possibility that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could dip below 3 percent later this year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “On the economic front, incoming data suggest the rebound in economic activity has paused in the last couple of weeks with modest declines in consumer spending and a pullback in purchase activity.”
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending July 2, 2020, down from 3.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.56 percent with an average 0.8 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.59 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.18 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through April 2020 with forecasts from May 2020 and April 2021.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
April 2020 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.4% in April 2020 compared with April 2019 and increased month over month by 1.4% in April 2020 compared with March 2020 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.3% from April 2020 to May 2020, and decline 1.3% on a year-over-year basic from April 2020 to April 2021. 2021 will mark the first year home prices are expected to decline in more than nine years
“The very low inventory of homes for sale, coupled with homebuyers’ spur of record-low mortgage rates, will likely continue to support home price growth during the spring. If unemployment remains elevated in early 2021, then we can expect home prices to soften. Our forecast has home prices down in 12 months across 41 states.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
COVID-19 Impact on Home Prices
The home price acceleration in the April HPI was supported by increased homes sales in the first quarter of the year. Home price growth is expected to decelerate somewhat in May, with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast calling for a month-over-month increase of 0.3% compared with April 2020. Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts an annual price decline of 1.3% from April 2020 to April 2021. In 2021, home prices are expected to decline for the first time in more than nine years.
Home-purchase activity slowed over March and April compared to last year as shelter-in-place orders, and an unprecedented spike in unemployment, dented home-buying activity fueled by millennials. Nationally, the for-sale inventory of entry-level homes plummeted on average 25% in April. Should this trend continue, we may see an adverse effect on home sales in the near term.
“Tight supply and pent-up demand, particularly among millennials, provides optimism for a bounce-back in the housing market purchase activity and home prices over the medium term. The next 12 to 18 months are going to be very tough times for the broader economy. As employment and economic activity begin to pick up, as it will surely do, we expect housing to be a driver in a national recovery.”
-Frank Martell President and CEO of CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – April 2020
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, the year-over-year home price changed by 5.4%. No states posted an annual decline in home prices in April 2020.
The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Idaho (12%, Arizona (8.3%), Indiana (8%) and Missouri (8%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continue to experience price increases, with Washington D.C. leading the way at 5.7% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts a very high probability (above 60%) of a decline in home prices in Prescott, Arizona; Huntington, West Virginia; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and College Station-Bryan, Texas, over the next 12 months. It also predicts a moderate probability of a price decline (40-60%) in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida. Huntington, West Virginia, was hit particularly hard by the recent downturn in the oil and gas industry. Typical vacation spots, like Cape Coral-Fort Myers and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton in Florida, as well as Prescott, Arizona, are also expected to experience a decline in home property value as visitors stay home and vacation rentals are sold.
Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) Metro Area Maps – April 2020
The first map displayed is the HPI by CBSA for April 2020.
According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 40% of metropolitan areas had an overvalued housing market in April 2020, while 18% were undervalued and 42% were at value. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as “overvalued”, “at value”, or “undervalued.” These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10%, and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.
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