Daily Archives: November 1, 2012

How Hurricane Sandy’s Aftermath Will Affect The Housing Market’s Recovery | Waccabuc Realtor

Hurricane Sandy pummeled the East Coast on Monday, leaving a trail of devastating destruction in its wake. Damages could run as high as $50 billion, according to Eqecat, and hundreds of thousands of homeowners are expected to file claims for flood and wind damage, according to the Consumer Federation of America. Roughly $88 billion worth of homes across eight states were put at risk by the storm’s surge, according to Corelogic.

Hurricane Sandy’s immediate impact on real estate in the hardest hit Northeastern neighborhoods is already painfully evident, from New Jersey shore houses completely swept away by the sea to entire neighborhoods like Queens’ Breezy Point tragically leveled to the ground. But this latest natural disaster won’t just affect certain ZIP codes, it will weigh on America’s housing market as a whole.

In many parts of the country housing has welcomed a nascent recovery. Nationally, home sales have been notably higher this year as compared to last. In September, existing home sales were up 11% year-over-year and pending sales up 14.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices have risen too, with the national median sales price $183,900, or about 11% higher than September of 2011.  Inventory has fallen drastically in many parts of the country, fueling the uptick in prices. The rising numbers have helped housing become a bright spot in recent economic reports, with analysts projecting that residential investment will positively contribute to gross domestic product this year for the first time since 2005.

Now that rosy recovery will dampen. “This will certainly create a negative in the short term,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. “The bottom line is we clearly anticipate a slowdown, but it will be temporary.”

Along the East Coast, expect home sales to trend downward in coming months, as sellers take their damaged digs off the market and buyers hold off on purchases. Pending sales will be delayed or in some cases collapse altogether as lenders insist upon new appraisals in areas battered by Sandy.  Yun expects the regional drop in activity to log a “notable, measurable impact” large enough to pull the national sales statistics down for November onward. Home sales typically begin to slow due to seasonality at this time of the year; the storm’s lingering effects will ensure that slowdown manifests more dramatically.

Even so, that short term pain may actually evolve into a market boost four-to-six months from now. “With past natural disasters, home sales pause but what generally happens is in later months, as insurance money begins to flow in, the housing market gets elevated to higher levels than before the storm,” explains Yun.

Interestingly, data tied to comparable natural disasters suggest that home prices tend to be inversely affected.  With inventory levels reduced, demand tends to outweigh the supply, causing prices to inch up. “Home prices tend to rise after hurricanes and other natural disasters because some homes are unfortunately lost and new construction is delayed so housing stock isn’t growing as fast as the population,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist of Trulia.com.

However, more drastic storms in areas more commonly associated with, say, flooding — like Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans — can have the opposite effect, pushing prices down in the long term as residents relocate to new areas altogether.

Hurricane Sandy will affect residential construction, which has modestly rebounded this year, in two ways. Remodeling activity will jump, as homeowners who sustained damage to their properties, particularly primary residences, hire contractors to make immediate fixes. “It’s bad news for homeowners, but it’s certainly an opportunity for workers who have survived a very down housing market to get back to work,” says Robert Denk, an assistant vice president of economics for the National Association of Home Builders. He notes that this dynamic played out after Hurricane Irene as well.

In the short-term the storm will stifle new housing starts. This will in part be due to seasonality, since new homebuilding tends to pause in the winter months in the Northeast, and in part be due to the fact that many of decimated coastal properties in places like the Jersey Shore tend to be vacation homes and as such, will not likely be considered immediate priorities in terms of repair. New home starts, like sales, will likely rebound in early spring to levels slightly higher than before the storm as owners start to finally rebuild those properties.

A subsection of the housing market now riddled with post-Sandy questions is distressed real estate. On Wednesday RealtyTrac reported that nearly 25,000 distressed properties valued at an estimated $7 billion sit in counties declared disaster areas. Daren Blomquist, a vice president at RealtyTrac, says the number is actually higher, though the California-based foreclosure site has yet to finalize and upwardly revised count.

“I think there is potential for people in the foreclosure process to now have less incentive to fight foreclosure on a home if it has been damaged,” says Blomquist.  In other words, some distressed homeowners may simply walk away from their preforeclosures altogether rather than try and work out a short sale or other such deal. With bank-owned homes, the question that arises is whether lenders will choose to pour money into renovations for damaged properties, especially since those REOs already represent non-performing assets.

New Jersey and New York have two of the slowest judicial foreclosure processes in the country. New Jersey has experienced 100%-plus increases in foreclosure activity this year, according to RealtyTrac, as lenders finally began processing foreclosures stalled by 2010′s robo-signing scandal. New York state has seen similar activity increases this year. RealtyTrac expects Sandy’s impact will cause a temporary pullback in the number of foreclosure documents filed in both of these states.

“This storm could slow down the foreclosure process and therefore the housing recovery,” warns Blomquist. “It will certainly slow down the pace at which the market will absorb these properties.”

County, NY state hit utility on complaints of slow restoration efforts after Cuomo order | Lewisboro Realtor

State and county officials had what appeared to be the first confrontation with a utility to speed up the restoration of power after the storm following Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s warning to companies to act fast.

State Director of Operations Howard Glaser said the response by New York State Electric and Gas Corp. to its customers without power in northern Westchester County was “silence, darkness and an utter lack of any NYSEG presence whatsoever.” Glaser then proposed a new motto for NYSEG: “Lights out, Nobody’s Home,” according to an email he sent to NYSEG President Mark Lynch that was obtained by The Associated Press.

“Any objective assessment is that NYSEG is by far the poorest performing utility in this situation in the state,” Glaser wrote.

An NYSEG spokesman said the utility was slowed by the number of trees downed during the superstorm, but more crews were coming in to help with its restoration efforts.

Cuomo and Westchester County Executive Robert Astorino were assigning monitors to watch NYSEG’s progress. Glaser said, if necessary, Cuomo would order another utility to take over the restoration effort for NYSEG customers.

Westchester County Executive Robert Astorino on Thursday said he and state officials met with the utility’s president Wednesday after residents complained. Officials said crews weren’t working to restore power the way other utilities were and the process was moving too slowly or was nonexistent.

Astorino says NYSEG also wasn’t communicating adequately. Public works crews were forced to wait to clear streets of trees and debris until they heard from NYSEG if downed lines were safe, he said.

NYSEG had about 114,000 customers without power at the peak, a tally that was down to about 80,000 by midday Thursday. The pace was similar to other utilities in New York: Statewide, the peak number of power outages was 2.2 million, down to about 1.6 million by midday Thursday. In a statement Thursday, the company said the majority of customers downstate should have power back by midnight Sunday, but some won’t get electricity back until midnight on Nov. 7.

The Cuomo administration said the volume of complaints from NYSEG’s northern Westchester service area prompted a tour Tuesday night, where they said they found none of the crews at work chain-sawing and splicing, as Consolidated Edison crews were doing. In addition, Cuomo spokesman Josh Vlasto said, NYSEG was singled out because it was slowest to return power the Metropolitan Transportation Authority needed to clear tunnels and power trains and pumps.

A NYSEG spokesman in Westchester didn’t immediately respond to questions about the meeting and the complaints, but a corporate spokesman, Dan Hucko, said the first essential task was to make sure the main transmission line was safe to handle power. That required walking and driving along the line and observing it by helicopter.

“That takes time, especially in Westchester and Dutchess and Putnam counties, because of the trees that were down,” he said. “It’s a pretty long, involved process. We have a lot of crews there and we are sending more crews down there on an hourly basis.”

He said crews from NYSEG’s sister company in Maine had completed restoration work at home Wednesday night and were headed to New York on Thursday to help out.

“I can imagine in some of the states and residential areas that people haven’t seen our crews because they have not gotten there yet, and there are other crucial elements.”

Astorino told the AP his meeting with Mark Lynch, president of NYSEG, was “very frank, candid and sometimes uncomfortable.”

“There was an obvious breakdown in communication between NYSEG and local communities that needed to be fixed immediately,” he said. “I don’t think there was a lot of lost time. There was some frustration.”

Astorino said he thought “things have gotten a little better” since his meeting with Lynch.

Low Rates, Tight Lending Spur Huge Year for VA Loans | Armonk NY Realtor

Need another sign that conventional lending is still tight?

Riding a surge of refinance loans, VA loan volume year-over-year jumped 51 percent in fiscal year 2012, according to recently released data from the Department of Veterans Affairs. Loan volume has soared 305 percent since FY07.

Military borrowers continue to flock to the program’s flexible underwriting requirements and financial benefits, which include no down payment, higher allowable debt-to-income ratios, no private mortgage insurance and in some cases refinance loans without appraisals.

Right now VA lenders are generally looking for a credit score of at least 620. In contrast, a recent National Association of Realtors survey found that the average FICO score on an FHA denial in May was 669, and borrowers with scores at or above 740 comprised 53 percent of loans in August.

Consistent growth

To get a sense of the recent rise, take a look at total VA loans since FY07:

  • FY12: 539,884
  • FY11: 357,592
  • FY10: 314,011
  • FY09: 325,690
  • FY08: 179,670
  • FY07: 133,313

This year’s total is the highest since 1994. Loan volume increased at least 25 percent in all 50 states, including significant year-over-year gains in Utah (98 percent), Hawaii (89 percent), Virginia (69 percent), Nebraska (67 percent) and California and Massachusetts (65 percent).

The recent growth of the program comes in the wake of the subprime mortgage meltdown and the lending restrictions that followed. Military borrowers have found it increasingly difficult to secure conventional financing, and even the minimum 3.5 percent down payment on an FHA loan can prove too much for military families.

That’s why this nearly 70-year-old no down payment loan program continues to make a tremendous difference for veterans and active military.

Refinance boom

Historically low interest rates also continue to drive the VA boom. The agency guaranteed nearly 340,000 refinance loans in FY12, almost double last year’s total. Purchase loans increased about 8 percent.

The VA’s Streamline refinance program allows qualified borrowers to take advantage of low rates with little hassle. Some lenders can offer this VA-to-VA option without an appraisal to underwater homeowners.