Why lumber prices have nearly tripled again since cratering a few months ago | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Simple economics popped the lumber bubble last year. Once the price of lumber topped $1,515 per thousand board feet in the spring, do-it-yourselfers en masse stopped buying. At the same time, sawmills trying to cash in on the sky-high prices increased production, contributing to prices plummeting by August to $389 per thousand board feet. Suddenly, lumber buyers, who were used to paying $350 to $500 per thousand board feet prior the pandemic, felt some serious relief.

End of the story, right? Not at all. Since bottoming in August, lumber has gone on another run that’s starting to look a lot like the historic run we saw last spring. As of Friday, the cash market price is back up to $1,111 per thousand board feet. That’s up 186% (or almost triple) above its bottom price in August.

But the dynamics pushing up prices are very different this time. During the last go around, pandemic lockdowns had limited production just as remote working set off a home renovation boom and recession-induced low mortgage rates spurred more demand for homebuilding. Instead of lockdowns, blame mother nature this time. The bad wildfire season this summer in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and British Columbia—the epicenters of North American softwood production—saw some sawmills curtail production. Meanwhile, mudslides and flooding caused by a record rainfall in November have delayed lumber shipments coming out of the Port of Vancouver. That supply decline is simply outmatched by high demand from builders who are still selling homes faster than they can build them.

As prices started to spike late last year, suppliers and homebuilders responded by increasing their lumber orders. Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, a lumber trading company, tells Fortune those buyers didn’t want to get caught off-guard like last time so they bought ahead “just in case” prices climbed back to the exorbitant levels of spring 2021. Of course, that influx of buyers only put more upward pressure on prices.

“Demand is phenomenal. We have been inundated with job quotes for the last two months, and have booked record amounts of future business. Buyers don’t want to get caught flat-footed and have the market run away from them like happened a year ago,” says Michael Goodman, director of specialty products at Sherwood Lumber.

Where do we go from here? Industry insiders don’t foresee lumber over $1,000 per thousand board feet as the new normal. Inevitably, sawmills will chase profits and increase production. But it’s tough to say when prices will fall again.

“Ultimately the frenzy will subside likely later in the first quarter or early in the second quarter, and we will start to see headwinds like higher interest rates,” Goodman says. Of course, higher interest rates and mortgage rates, which are expected to rise this year, could slow the housing market and building.

But don’t expect cheap lumber anytime soon. Even if lumber prices pull back somewhat, it doesn’t mean we’re headed back to pre-pandemic levels. There is a shortage of around 4 million homes—a dynamic that is likely going to keep builders busy (aka buying more lumber) for years to come.

read more…

fortune.com/2022/01/12/

Westchester 2021 sales up 10.4% | Armonk Real Estate

“2021 continued to be a record-breaking year in real estate, not just in the markets we serve but also nationally,” Liz Nunan, president and CEO of Houlihan Lawrence, said in the brokerage’s newly released fourth-quarter report on lower Hudson Valley real estate.

Liz Nunan

Home sales in Westchester were up 10.4% for 2021, while Putnam and Dutchess counties reported gains of 8% and 2.7%, respectively. Nearly every submarket in Westchester posted double-digit sales gains, according to the report.

“While the first half of 2021 varied in specific metrics to the second half, two factors remained constant. The inventory was at an all-time low, and buyer demand was exceptionally strong,” Nunan said. “As the year progressed, the sales outpaced inventory replacement, and this further restriction led to a decline in pending sales and, eventually, closed sales.”

In the fourth quarter, the number of listings declined 42% in Westchester County year over year. In Putnam County, that number was down 34%, and in Dutchess County listings were down 44%.

“2022 will likely not see the record-breaking number of sales seen in 2021. But until the supply and demand fall into balance, the market will still be charged with buyers, and sellers will continue to prosper,” Nunan said.

In the fourth quarter, 1,669 single-family homes sold in Westchester, compared with 2,228 in the first quarter of 2020, a drop of 25.1%. The median sale price was $725,000, a 1% drop from $732,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020.

For all of 2021, 7,541 single-family homes changed hands in Westchester, compared with 6,649 in 2020, a 10.4% gain. The median sale price for the year went up to $780,000 from $735,000 in 2020, a 6.1% gain.

The number of condominiums sold in Westchester went up by 31.8% from 1,242 in 2020 to 1,637 in 2021. The median sale price also was up at $425, 000 in 2021 compared with $403,000 in 2020, a 5.5% increase.

In the fourth quarter, condo sales dropped 4.3% from 470 in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 450 in 2021’s fourth quarter. The median sale price increased 4.9% from $410,000 in Q4 of 2020 to $430,000 in Q4 of 2021.

Co-op sales in Westchester were up by 35.3% from 1,562 units sold in 2020 to 2,114 in 2021. The median sale price was $194,100, up 6.1% from 2020’s $183,000.

For the fourth quarter of 2021, co-op sales stood at 547 units, a 10.3% increase from the 496 units that changed hands in the fourth quarter of 2020. The median sale price inched up 2.9% from $185,000 in Q4 of 2020 to $190,400 in Q4 of 2021.

In Putnam, there were 1,342 single-family homes sold in 2021 compared with 1,241 in 2020. The median sale price for the year was $440,000, up 16% from 2020’s $379,999. It also was up 16% for the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, reaching $455,750 from $394,250.

There were 199 condos sold in Putnam during the year, compared with 175 sold in 2020, a 15% increase. The median sale price was up 12.7% at $290,000 compared with 2020’s $257,250. For the fourth quarter of 2021, 43 units were sold, a drop of 28.3% from the 60 units sold in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the median sale price went up 12.1% from $280,950 in Q4 of 2020 to $315,000 in Q4 of 2021.

In Dutchess County, 2,759 single-family homes were sold in 2021 compared with 2,686 in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, 665 single-family homes sold compared with 997 in 2020’s fourth quarter, a drop of 33.3%. The median sale price rose 14.7% from $339,900 in 2020 to $390,000 in 2021. For the fourth quarter of 2021, the median sale price was up 7.3% to $396,000 from $369,000 in the same period in 2020.

There were 628 condominiums sold in 2021 in Dutchess, up 38% from the 455 that sold in 2020. There were 152 sold in Q4 of 2021 compared with 159 in Q4 of 2020, a 4.4% drop. The median condo sale price was $231,056 for Q4 of 2021, down 7.6% from $250,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020. For the year,the median sale price was $235,000, a 5.4% increase from 2020’s $225,000.

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westfaironline.com/144213/

Mortgage rates average 3.45% | South Salem Real Estate

 Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.45 percent.

“Mortgage rates rose across all mortgage loan types, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by almost a quarter of a percent from last week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This was driven by the prospect of a faster than expected tightening of monetary policy in response to continued inflation exacerbated by uncertainty in labor and supply chains. The rise in mortgage rates so far this year has not yet affected purchase demand, but given the fast pace of home price growth, it will likely dampen demand in the near future.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.45 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 13, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.22 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.79 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.62 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.43 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.23 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.57 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.41 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.12 percent.

The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.

New York’s eviction moratorium will end January 15th | Chappaqua Real Estate

New York’s eviction moratorium will not be extended after it expires this weekend, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Tuesday. In the meantime, the state’s rent-relief portal will be reopened to give aid to New Yorkers facing eviction. The freeze on evictions was established at the beginning of the Covid pandemic by former Gov. Andrew Cuomo to give relief to struggling New Yorkers. Over the past two years, it has been extended multiple times, with Hochul extending it to January 15 during her first week in office.

“We talked about giving people a little more breathing room, giving them just a little more relief on a short-term basis, and that went all the way to January 15,” Hochul said on Tuesday. “That was something no other state has done to my knowledge, and what we want to do is let people know that that is concluding very shortly.”

The ending of New York’s eviction moratorium comes after months of legal struggles between the federal government and New York. Last August, the Supreme Court partially blocked New York’s eviction moratorium claiming that the ban was unconstitutional because landlords had no way to challenge their tenant’s claims. When Hochul extended the ban in September, the original moratorium was altered to allow landlords to challenge their tenant’s claims in court.

Offering struggling New Yorkers an alternative, Hochul brought up the idea of reopening the rent-relief portal, which would give New Yorkers facing eviction the opportunity to have their eviction proceedings halted temporarily. “There is another option, which is reopening the portal. This is going to have the same effect in terms of allowing people to take advantage of a situation if they’re not able to pay their rent. They can have a cessation of the eviction proceedings for the time being.”

With the expiration of the moratorium closing in, tenant advocates have focused their attention on pushing for the passage of the good cause eviction bill, which would ban landlords from denying tenants a lease renewal without sufficient reasoning. The bill also guarantees tenants protection from eviction if their landlords increase their rent by 3 percent or by 150 percent of the Consumer Price Index.

In October of 2021, the federal government said that it would be reallocating unused funds from its first $25 billion allocation for emergency rental assistance and would be taking requests from states who needed a portion of it. In November, the state requested $1 billion in supplemental funding from the Department of Treasury to help residents facing eviction but received only $27 million this week.

“The federal government said that they were going to set aside money from other states that didn’t use it. We asked the Department of Treasury for over $978 million of that money to come to New York to help our backlog because by then we had probably $1 billion dollars worth of claims,” Hochul said. “That money, despite our efforts, resulted in $27 million dollars this week.”

Joseph Strasburg, the president of the Rent Stabilization Association, a group representing 25,000 owners of rent-stabilized apartments in the city, encouraged the end of the moratorium.

“The rolling eviction moratorium, now going on nearly two years, was intended as a temporary emergency response, and not as a long-term, sustainable solution,” Strasburg said. “The state of emergency was lifted last June, tenants have received billions of dollars in rent relief and other federal and state assistance, and despite COVID variants, the economy continues to rebound with millions of job openings still waiting to be filled. It’s time to end the eviction moratorium and put an end to tenants skipping the rent because there are no repercussions for not paying.”

In his statement, Strasburg mentioned that despite the eviction moratorium coming to an end, New Yorkers facing eviction in the face of Covid-related financial struggles are protected by the Tenant Safe Harbor A

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6sqft.com

Four States Including NY Seek U.S. Supreme Court To Hear SALT Deduction Appeal Case | North Salem Real Estate

ALBANY—New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York Attorney General Letitia James announced on Jan. 3 that New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari to the U.S. Supreme Court to continue their lawsuit against the federal government for its unlawful and unprecedented cap on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT.

The petition asks the Supreme Court to review an October 2021 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that upheld the district court’s rejection of the states’ suit, which argues that the SALT cap was a politically motivated bid by the former federal administration to interfere with the policy choices of predominantly Democratic states.

“The SALT deduction cap is nothing less than double taxation on New Yorkers,” New York Gov. Hochul said. “Repealing the SALT cap would not only put more money into the pockets of New York families, it would deliver a much-needed boost to New York’s economy. I am proud we are taking this issue to the Supreme Court to continue to fight on behalf of New York taxpayers.”

“This unfair cap has already placed a significant financial burden on countless hardworking, middle-class families in New York, and in the years to come, it is expected to cost New York taxpayers more than $100 billion,” said Attorney General James. “We filed this lawsuit to protect millions of New Yorkers from this harmful, misguided, and blatantly political attack. New York will not be bullied into paying more than its fair share, and we will continue to fight back.”

The lawsuit—which was originally filed in July 2018 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York—argued that the new SALT deduction cap was enacted to target New York and similarly situated states, that it interferes with states’ rights to make their own fiscal decisions, and that it will disproportionately harm taxpayers in these states. The top states with the highest average deduction for state and local taxes—a majority of which are Democratic—include New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey.

The 2017 Tax Act reversed over a century of precedent in the federal tax code—drastically curtailing the state and local tax deduction by capping it at $10,000. An analysis by the New York state Department of Taxation and Finance projected that the cap would increase New Yorkers’ federal taxes by up to $15 billion annually.

As one of the nation’s top donor states, this attack is significantly more damaging to New York than many other states. Prior to enactment of the 2017 law, New York state already had the widest disparity among all states when factoring how much money New York sent to Washington, D.C. and the funding it received in return. Other donor states, including Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey are being similarly injured.

In its September 2019 ruling, despite ruling against the State of New York and its partner states, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York agreed that the states had been injured based on their argument that the cap on the state and local tax deduction may depress home prices. By effectively raising state property taxes, the SALT cap will also reduce the value of a homeowner’s property, thereby discouraging home sales and decreasing the revenues the states are able to collect by taxing such sales.

Reports in the press also show anecdotal evidence that New Yorkers—particularly the state’s highest earners—are already moving their homes and businesses to states like Florida because of the cap on SALT deductions. In New York, the top 1% of taxpayers account for 46% of state income tax collections and losing them threatens the ability of the state to deliver on New York’s promise of providing opportunity for every person in the state.

realestateindepth.com/news/

Slowing Fourth Quarter Sales Did Not Derail Record 2021 Housing Market | Mt Kisco Real Estate

WHITE PLAINS—Residential sales in 2021 in the counties served by OneKey MLS, Inc. reached a historic peak. This, despite a slowing of sales in the fourth quarter in all areas served by OneKey MLS with the exception of Bronx County.

Arguably, some of the slowdown can be attributed to the dearth of inventory in the counties north of New York City, while the “Bronx Tale” is more closely aligned to a return of buyers to the New York City market.

While the view of the market in terms of units sold and dollar volume is a positive one, it was a frustrating arena for many buyers who lost homes to higher bidders and for the practitioners dealing with client frustration and disappointment.

Bronx County had the largest percentage increase in residential sales at 61.4% year-over-year with 2,553 units sold as compared to 1,582 sales for 2020. Total residential sales in the counties to the north were more in line with each other with Rockland County leading the group with an increase of 19.3% (3,631 units compared to 3,044 units in 2020); Westchester, a close second at 19.1% (11,855 units compared to 9,955 units for 2020); followed by Orange County with a 16% increase (5,406 residential sales compared to 4,662 sales in 2020); Putnam experienced a 10.6% increase over 2020 (1,605 units compared to 1,451) and Sullivan County had a 9.6% increase for 2021 (1,393 compared to 1,271 in 2020).

Sales of single-family residential units increased across the board with Bronx County sales increasing an eye-opening 45.8% (716 units vs. 491 units for 2020). The median price of a single-family residence in Bronx County increased 8.5% to $575,000. The largest percentage price increase for a single-family home occurred in Sullivan County with a 25.3% increase to $244,400 from $195,000 in 2020. Notably, Westchester County, with the highest prices in the region, had the smallest percentage increase in median price for the year at 6.1% ($780,000 as compared to $735,000 in 2020) and actually experienced a slight decrease (-0.8%) in median price for the fourth quarter. This may be indicative of price increases beginning to moderate.

Orange County has seen consistent increases in the single-family median price with a year-over-year increase of 16.5% ($367,000 compared to $315,000 in 2020). Orange County single-family home sales increased by 11.2 % for the year to 4,444 units (compared to 3,996 in 2020) despite a drop of 20.7% in the fourth quarter.

In Rockland County the single-family median sale price increased 12% to $560,000 (from $500,00 in 2020) and Putnam County saw its single-family median price rise 15.8% to $440,000 (from $380,000 in 2020).

In terms of percentages, condominium, multi-family (2-4 family), and in Westchester County, co-op sales as well, all outpaced the increases in single-family units and, in most instances, the percent of median price increase. In Westchester County, where co-op sales lagged in 2020, they increased 36.3% to 2,129 units (from 1,562 in 2020). Affordability is the most prevalent reason for these choices particularly in view of the price increases in single-family dwellings. For many suburban purchasers, condos and co-ops represent a means to build equity to purchase a single-family residence.

When focusing solely on the fourth quarter residential sales numbers, they reflect a return to the more typical seasonality in the market, which disappeared in the fourth quarter of 2021. While there were significant decreases in the number of residential sales in all counties, except the Bronx, when comparing the 2021 fourth quarter to the 2020 fourth quarter sales, it is important to remember that the fourth quarter 2020 sales were fueled by a surge in buying activity in the second half of 2020 once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. A more realistic comparison would be to the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2018, and the 2021 fourth quarter residential sales numbers were significantly higher than either of those two years.

Indicators such as days on market were down significantly in all market areas. Homes selling close to or at list price and above list price were a relatively common event. Lack of inventory continues to be a problem with no meaningful resolution on the near horizon. With the Fed tightening monetary policy it is expected that mortgage rates will begin a steady rise in 2022. However, despite these headwinds, the real estate market in the New York City and greater suburban area, including the lower Hudson Valley, have shown remarkable resiliency in the last year and a half, and we expect a strong real estate market to continue into 2022.

With the exception of the second quarter of 2020, the real estate market has been an anomaly outperforming the economy. Sales and prices have enjoyed a trajectory which is likely unsustainable going forward, however the economy of the Hudson Valley continues to improve and grow more vibrant, which bodes well for real estate. It is likely that price increases will moderate and additional product will come on the market, which will sustain a strong market in the near term.

HGAR/OneKey® MLS 2021 Fourth Quarter Residential Real Estate Sales Report

Data provided by OneKey MLS, one of the largest Realtor subscriber-based MLS’s in the country, dedicated to servicing more than 46,310 real estate professionals that serve Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Sullivan, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. OneKey MLS was formed in 2018, following the merger of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service and the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island.

realestateindepth.com/news/

Mortgage rates hit 9-month high | South Salem Real Estate

  • The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 3.33% last week and is now about half a percentage point higher than a year ago.
  • Applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% last week compared with two weeks ago and were 40% lower year over year.
  • Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell 4% from two weeks earlier and were 12% lower year over year

The economic damage from the omicron variant of the coronavirus is now expected to be less than initially thought, and that has interest rates back on their upward trajectory yet again. As a result, mortgage demand fell 2.7% to end 2021, compared with two weeks before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. [The MBA did not release application volume last week due to the holidays.]

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.33% at the end of last week from 3.27% two weeks before, with points rising to 0.48 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 47 basis points lower the same week one year ago.

As a result, applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% last week compared with two weeks ago and were 40% lower year over year. The refinance share of mortgage activity, however, increased to 65.4% of total applications from 63.9% the previous week, due to continued weakness in the purchase loan market.

“Mortgage rates continued to creep higher over the past two weeks, as markets maintained an optimistic view of the economy,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Refinance demand continues to dwindle, as many borrowers refinanced in 2020, and in early 2021.”

Rates continued to climb at the start of this week, rising sharply Tuesday to the highest level since early April of last year, according to Mortgage News Daily, which calculates daily rates as opposed to weekly averages.

Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell 4% from two weeks earlier and were 12% lower year over year. That was the weakest showing since October 2021. Home sales began pulling back in November, but more because of low inventory than high interest rates. Home prices also continue to gain compared with 2020, up just over 18% in November, according to CoreLogic.

“Despite supply and affordability challenges, 2021 was a record year for purchase originations,” said Kan. “MBA expects 2022 to be even stronger, with total purchase activity reaching $1.74 trillion.”

read more…

cnbc.com/2022/01/05

Home affordability plummeted in fourth quarter | Waccabuc Real Estate

Homeownership continues to swerve into unaffordable territory, with median-priced single-family homes becoming less affordable in three-quarters of the nation’s market, a report published by ATTOM Data Solutions last week said.

Per the report, between October to December 2021, median home prices in 440 of the 575 counties analyzed by the data vendor saw notable home-price growth. As a result, 77% of counties included in the report have now been labeled as less affordable by ATTOM, up from 39% of counties in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The data vendor also noted that in the third quarter of 2021, 428 counties from the same data set were labeled as less affordable, up from 224 counties in the fourth quarter of 2020.

On average, the median national home price grew by 17% over the past year to $317,500, according to the report.

Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM, said in a statement that the financial comfort zone for homebuyers continues to shrink as home prices rise and mortgage rates tick upwards.


 “Historically low rates and rising wages are still big reasons why workers can meet or come very close to standard lending benchmarks in a majority of counties we analyze,” Teta said. “ But the portion of wages required for major ownership expenses nationwide is getting closer to levels where banks become less likely to offer home loans.”

ATTOM found that ownership costs have risen in the fourth quarter of 2021, with the typical home consuming 25.2% of the average national wage of $65,546. In comparison, the fourth quarter of 2020 saw ownership costs at 21.5%.

However, ATTOM noted that the latest level is still within the 28% standard lenders prefer for how much homeowners should spend on mortgage payments, home insurance and property taxes.

The report added that house hunters unscathed financially by the pandemic have buoyed housing costs, as they “surged into the market amid a combination of mortgage rates hovering around 3 percent and a desire to trade congested virus-prone areas for the perceived safety of a house and yard, as well as the space for growing work-at-home lifestyles.”

“Amid very uncertain times, with the pandemic again threatening the economy, we will keep watching this key measure of housing market stability,” Teta concluded.

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housingwire.com/articles/

NY Among Top States Residents Are Fleeing From | Cross River Real Estate

The Pandemic Continued to Influence Americans’ Decisions to Move as They Relocated to Lower-Density Areas and Desired to be Closer to Family

Interactive Map: To understand inbound and outbound percentages for each state, use the legend. To view reasons for moving and demographic data, select the year and state that you would like to view using the dropdown menus. (If you are using a desktop computer, you can use your mouse to click and select a state.) Please note that percentages pertaining to demographic data may not always total 100% due to respondents having the ability to opt out of answering survey questions and/or to select more than one survey response per question.

United Van Lines released the company’s 45th Annual National Movers Study today, which indicates Americans were on the move to lower-density areas and to be closer to their families throughout last year.

The annual study, which tracks the company’s exclusive data for customers’ state-to-state migration patterns, determined Vermont as the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration (74%) with United Van Lines. Topping the list of outbound locations was New Jersey (71%), which has held the spot for the past four years.

South Dakota (69%), South Carolina (63%), West Virginia (63%) and Florida (62%) were also revealed as the top inbound states for 2021. Meanwhile, states like Illinois (67%), New York (63%), Connecticut (60%) and California (59%), which have regularly appeared on the top outbound list in recent years, again ranked among states with the largest exoduses.

In addition to the state-by-state data, each year United Van Lines also conducts an accompanying survey to examine the motivations and influences for Americans’ interstate moves. This year’s survey results indicated 31.8% of Americans who moved did so in order to be closer to family – a new trend coming out of the pandemic as priorities and lifestyle choices shift. Additionally, 32.5% of Americans moved for a new job or job transfer, a significant decrease from 2015, when more than 60% of Americans cited a job or transfer.

“This new data from United Van Lines is indicative of COVID-19’s impact on domestic migration patterns, with 2021 bringing an acceleration of moves to smaller, midsized towns and cities,” Michael A. Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, said. “We’re seeing this not only occur because of Americans’ desire to leave high density areas due to risk of infection, but also due to the transformation of how we’re able to work, with more flexibility to work remote.”

What’s more, amid the pandemic, many Gen Xers are retiring (often at a younger age than past generations), joining the Baby Boomer generation. While many are retiring to states like Florida, United Van Lines’ data reveals they’re not necessarily heading to heavily populated cities like Orlando and Miami — they’re venturing to less dense places like Punta Gorda (81% inbound), Sarasota (79% inbound) and Fort Myers-Cape Coral (77% inbound). Similarly, in Oregon, cities including Medford-Ashland (83%) and Eugene-Springfield (79%) saw high inbound migration in 2021.

“For 45 years now, our annual United Van Lines study, with its data-driven insights, has allowed us to explore a deeper understanding of Americans’ overall migration patterns,” Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines, said. “As the pandemic continues to impact our day-to-day, we’re seeing that lifestyle changes — including the increased ability to work from home — and wanting to be closer to family are key factors in why Americans are moving today.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2021 were:

  1. Vermont
  2. South Dakota
  3. South Carolina
  4. West Virginia
  5. Florida
  6. Alabama
  7. Tennessee
  8. Oregon
  9. Idaho
  10. Rhode Island

Of the top ten inbound states, six — Vermont, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alabama, Oregon and Idaho — are among the 20 least densely populated states in America, with less than 100 people per square mile. And, Tennessee and South Carolina are among the top 25.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2021 were:

  1. New Jersey
  2. Illinois
  3. New York
  4. Connecticut
  5. California
  6. Michigan
  7. Massachusetts
  8. Louisiana
  9. Ohio
  10. Nebraska

Balanced

Several states saw nearly the same number of residents moving inbound as outbound.

Kentucky and Wyoming are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines annually tracks migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2021 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To access the study details and creative assets, use the link to the press kit at the top or bottom of the page.

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unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/

New home sales drop 14% | Katonah Real Estate

New single-family home sales rose in November as housing demand was supported by low interest rates and strong consumer demand, despite the ongoing building materials challenges impacting the housing industry.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau estimated sales of newly built, single-family homes in November at a 744,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, a 12.4% gain over downwardly revised October rate of 662,000 and is 14.0% below the November 2020 estimate of 865,000.

The gains for new home sales are consistent with the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI, which edged up to 84 in December, demonstrating that housing is a leading sector for the economy.

Sales-adjusted inventory levels are at a balanced 6.5 months’ supply in November. The count of completed, ready-to-occupy new homes is just 40,000 homes nationwide. Median sales price continues to increase in November at $416,900. This is up 18.8% compared to the November 2020 median sales price of $350,800.

Moreover, sales are increasingly coming from homes that have not started construction, with that count up 75.4% year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). These measures point to continued gains for single-family construction ahead.

Regionally on a year-to-date basis, new home sales declined in all four regions; 1.3% in the Northeast, 4.5% in the South, 5.3% in the Midwest, and 12.5% in the West.

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eyeonhousing.org