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Chappaqua NY Homes for Sale

Home prices rise 18.6% | Chappaqua Real Estate

41% increase since 2006

  • Home prices rose 18.6% annually in June, up from a 16.8% increase in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
  • Prices are now 41% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006.
  • Home prices continue to surge due to strong demand and persistent low supply.
Real estate agents Rosa Arrigo, center, and Elisa Rosen, right, work an open house in West Hempstead, New York on April 18, 2021.

Douglas Elliman Real Estate open house

Home prices rose 18.6% annually in June, up from the 16.8% increase in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.

That is the largest annual gain in the history of the index dating back to 1987. Prices nationally are now 41% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006.

Unlike other median price surveys, which can be skewed by the type of homes selling, this measures repeat sales of similar homes over time.

The 10-City composite rose 18.5%, up from 16.6% in the previous month. The 20-City composite was up 19.1%, up from 17.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the strongest price increases of the 20 cities. Prices in Phoenix increased 29.3% year-over-year. In San Diego they rose 27.1%, and in Seattle they were up 25.0%. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2021 versus the year ending May 2021.

“The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P DJI. “In June, all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more in the 12 months ended in June than they had gained in the 12 months ended in May.”

Prices in just about every city in the 20-city index, except for Chicago, are at all-time highs, he said, as are the national composition and the 10- and 20-city indices.

Home prices continue to surge due to strong demand and persistent low supply. While supply has been increasing month to month, it was still down 12% in July year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory group, said prices are rising at “a really out of control pace that is unsustainable and unhealthy.”

Home sales, however, have started to cool. Signed contracts on existing homes dropped in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices usually lag sales by about six months, so that could be a sign that price gains will stop accelerating as they have been for over a year.

“According to new Ally Home data, 45% of buyers say they have delayed purchasing a home due to market conditions, with 29% citing high home prices and 20% indicating homes selling too quickly as factors in this delay,” says Glenn Brunker, president of Ally Home.

Low mortgage rates continue to keep prices strong. Rates will rise if the Federal Reserve slows its purchases of mortgage-backed bonds, but so far that is not expected to happen in the near term.

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cnbc.com/realestate

FHFA reports 16% increase in home prices | Chappaqua Real Estate

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) found that house prices across the nation rose 16% from April 2020 to April 2021.

From March to April, house prices across the nation rose 1.8%, surpassing the previous month’s 1.6% increase.

Three regions — the Pacific coast, the western states and New England — saw more pronounced year over year increases. The FHFA index tracks seasonally-adjusted, purchase data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In the mountain division, which includes Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizona and Wyoming, house prices rose 21% year over year. In the pacific division, encompassing Washington, Oregon and California, prices rose 18%. In Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, house prices also rose 18%.

“House prices recorded another monthly and annual record in April,” said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA’s deputy director of the division of research and statistics. “This unprecedented price growth persists due to strong demand, bolstered by still-low mortgage rates, and too few homes for sale.

Mortgage rates rose above 3% for the first time in 10 weeks last week. Mortgage applications are still on the rise, however.

House prices have risen during the past year as a result of elevated lumber prices, a lack of available homes and increased demand for homes.

Lockdowns early in the pandemic led many to work from home and divide their living space into home offices. Those who were able to bought homes with more space, better suited to the pandemic remote work trend.

That has led to astonishing price increases in markets like Seattle, where the median home-sale price rose more than 26% year-over-year to a record $737,800 in May 2021. Tech employees there, faced with working remotely from cramped apartments, instead hunted for homes with more space.

“I’ve never seen anything like this housing market,” a Seattle-area Redfin agent said.

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housingwire.com/articles/

Case-Shiller prices up 12% | Chappaqua Real Estate

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series, and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 12.0% annual gain in February, up from 11.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 11.7%, up from 10.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted an 11.9% year-over-year gain, up from 11.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February. Phoenix led the way with a 17.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 17.0% increase and Seattle with a 15.4% increase. Nineteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2021 versus the year ending January 2021.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted an 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2% respectively in February.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2% respectively as well. In February, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS

“Strong home price gains continued in February 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. The National Composite Index marked its ninth month of accelerating prices with a 12.0% gain from year-ago levels, up from 11.2% in January. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 11.7% and 11.9%, respectively). The market’s strength continues to be broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and 19 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in February than they had gained in the 12 months ended in January.

“More than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data help us to put February’s results into historical context. The National Composite’s 12.0% gain is the highest recorded since February 2006, exactly 15 years ago, and lies comfortably in the top decile of historical performance. Housing’s strength is reflected across all 20 cities; February’s price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 18 cities.

“These data remain consistent with the hypothesis that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. Future data will be required to analyze this question.

“Phoenix’s 17.4% increase led all cities for the 21st consecutive month, with San Diego (+17.0%) and Seattle (+15.4%) close behind. Although prices were strongest in the West (+13.0%) and Southwest (+12.9%), every region logged double-digit gains.”

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak2012 TroughCurrent
IndexLevelDateLevelDateFrom Peak (%)LevelFrom Trough (%)From Peak (%)
National184.61Jul-06133.99Feb-12-27.4%238.8278.2%29.4%
20-City206.52Jul-06134.07Mar-12-35.1%246.0483.5%19.1%
10-City226.29Jun-06146.45Mar-12-35.3%259.5077.2%14.7%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2021. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

February 2021February/JanuaryJanuary ’21/December ’201-Year
Metropolitan AreaLevelChange (%)Change (%)Change (%)
Atlanta171.440.9%0.8%10.0%
Boston254.420.9%0.7%13.7%
Charlotte187.361.0%0.7%11.7%
Chicago154.760.3%0.3%8.6%
Cleveland142.620.8%0.1%12.5%
Dallas214.381.7%0.8%10.9%
Denver250.391.8%1.0%11.2%
Detroit142.631.0%0.6%11.7%
Las Vegas214.781.0%0.9%9.1%
Los Angeles325.331.3%1.0%11.9%
Miami275.881.0%1.2%11.0%
Minneapolis198.561.0%0.0%10.4%
New York227.360.6%1.0%11.6%
Phoenix236.512.0%1.6%17.4%
Portland270.661.3%1.0%11.4%
San Diego310.622.9%1.5%17.0%
San Francisco298.342.1%0.6%11.0%
Seattle299.952.4%1.5%15.4%
Tampa255.051.3%1.1%12.7%
Washington262.181.0%0.7%11.1%
Composite-10259.501.1%0.9%11.7%
Composite-20246.041.2%0.9%11.9%
U.S. National238.821.1%0.9%12.0%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through February 2021

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

February/January Change (%)January ’21/December ’20 Change (%)
Metropolitan AreaNSASANSASA
Atlanta0.9%0.8%0.8%1.2%
Boston0.9%1.3%0.7%1.3%
Charlotte1.0%1.0%0.7%1.1%
Chicago0.3%0.4%0.3%0.8%
Cleveland0.8%1.2%0.1%0.9%
Dallas1.7%1.4%0.8%1.2%
Denver1.8%1.4%1.0%1.1%
Detroit1.0%1.0%0.6%1.2%
Las Vegas1.0%1.1%0.9%1.3%
Los Angeles1.3%1.3%1.0%1.1%
Miami1.0%1.1%1.2%1.3%
Minneapolis1.0%1.1%0.0%0.8%
New York0.6%1.2%1.0%1.2%
Phoenix2.0%2.1%1.6%2.0%
Portland1.3%1.5%1.0%1.2%
San Diego2.9%2.2%1.5%1.5%
San Francisco2.1%1.5%0.6%1.4%
Seattle2.4%1.6%1.5%1.6%
Tampa1.3%1.3%1.1%1.4%
Washington1.0%1.0%0.7%1.1%
Composite-101.1%1.1%0.9%1.2%
Composite-201.2%1.2%0.9%1.2%
U.S. National1.1%1.1%0.9%1.3%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through February 2021

read more…

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

Case-shiller home prices up 10.1% | Chappaqua Real Estate

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today releases the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series, and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

Please note that transaction records for October 2020 and November 2020 for Wayne County, MI, are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P DJI and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate valid October 2020 and November 2020 updates for the Detroit S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

However, there are still an insufficient number of records from Wayne County for December 2020. Since Wayne County is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P DJI and CoreLogic are unable to generate a valid Detroit index value for December 2020. When the sale transactions data fully resumes, and sufficient data is collected, the Detroit index values for the month(s) with missing updates will be calculated.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 10.4% annual gain in December, up from 9.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.8%, up from 8.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 10.1% year-over-year gain, up from 9.2% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in December. Phoenix led the way with a 14.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 13.6% increase and San Diego with a 13.0% increase. Eighteen of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending December 2020 versus the year ending November 2020. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in December. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.3%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. In December, 18 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while all 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

“Home prices finished 2020 with double-digit gains, as the National Composite Index rose by 10.4% compared to year-ago levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The trend of accelerating prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its seventh month and is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 9.8% and 10.1%, respectively). The market’s strength continues to be broadly-based: 18 of the 19 cities for which we have December data rose, and 18 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in December than they had gained in the 12 months ended in November.

“As COVID-related restrictions began to grip the economy in early 2020, their effect on housing prices was unclear. Price growth decelerated in May and June, and then began a steady climb upward, and   December’s report continues that acceleration in an emphatic manner. 2020’s 10.4% gain marks the best performance of housing prices in a calendar year since 2013. From the perspective of more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, December’s year-over-year change ranks within the top decile of all reports.

“These data are consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This may indicate a secular shift in housing demand, or may simply represent an acceleration of moves that would have taken place over the next several years anyway. Future data will be required to address that question.

“Phoenix’s 14.4% increase led all cities for the 19th consecutive month, with Seattle (+13.6%) and San Diego (+13.0%) close behind. Prices were strongest in the West (+10.8%) and Southwest (+10.5%), but gains were impressive in every region.”

SUPPORTING DATA 

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak2012 TroughCurrent
 Index Level Date Level DateFrom Peak
(%)
 LevelFrom Trough
(%)
From Peak
(%)
National184.61Jul-06134.00Feb-12-27.4%234.4074.9%27.0%
20-City206.52Jul-06134.07Mar-12-35.1%240.7579.6%16.6%
10-City226.29Jun-06146.45Mar-12-35.3%254.1873.6%12.3%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for December 2020. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

December 2020December/NovemberNovember/October1-Year
Metropolitan AreaLevelChange (%)Change (%)Change (%)
Atlanta168.580.8%1.2%8.9%
Boston250.330.8%1.4%11.4%
Charlotte184.400.7%1.1%10.2%
Chicago154.450.3%0.4%7.7%
Cleveland141.250.9%0.1%11.5%
Dallas209.090.9%0.8%8.4%
Denver243.490.9%1.0%9.2%
Detroit0.7%
Las Vegas210.651.1%0.7%7.9%
Los Angeles317.640.7%0.9%9.9%
Miami269.811.2%1.3%9.2%
Minneapolis196.810.4%0.6%10.2%
New York223.321.2%1.9%9.9%
Phoenix228.241.1%1.3%14.4%
Portland264.510.5%0.7%9.9%
San Diego297.520.6%0.9%13.0%
San Francisco289.880.0%0.9%8.7%
Seattle288.750.9%0.9%13.6%
Tampa248.921.2%1.4%10.7%
Washington259.001.2%1.1%10.3%
Composite-10254.180.9%1.2%9.8%
Composite-20240.750.8%1.1%10.1%
U.S. National234.400.9%1.1%10.4%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through December 2020

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

December/November Change (%)November/October Change (%)
Metropolitan AreaNSASANSASA
Atlanta0.8%1.3%1.2%1.5%
Boston0.8%1.4%1.4%1.7%
Charlotte0.7%1.1%1.1%1.3%
Chicago0.3%1.1%0.4%1.2%
Cleveland0.9%1.5%0.1%0.9%
Dallas0.9%1.2%0.8%1.1%
Denver0.9%1.3%1.0%1.4%
Detroit0.7%1.4%
Las Vegas1.1%1.3%0.7%1.0%
Los Angeles0.7%1.0%0.9%1.2%
Miami1.2%1.5%1.3%1.4%
Minneapolis0.4%1.2%0.6%1.3%
New York1.2%1.4%1.9%2.1%
Phoenix1.1%1.5%1.3%1.6%
Portland0.5%0.9%0.7%1.3%
San Diego0.6%1.2%0.9%1.6%
San Francisco0.0%0.8%0.9%1.0%
Seattle0.9%1.5%0.9%1.7%
Tampa1.2%1.5%1.4%1.3%
Washington1.2%1.5%1.1%1.3%
Composite-100.9%1.2%1.2%1.5%
Composite-200.8%1.3%1.1%1.5%
U.S. National0.9%1.3%1.1%1.5%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through December 2020

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing indices across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-reports-10-4-annual-home-price-gain-to-end-2020–301233707.html

Rents drop in NYC | Chappaqua Real Estate

A $500 drop in rents is drawing people back to Manhattan, according to a new report from Douglas Elliman.

With landlords piling on concessions, new leases surged to the highest October total in 12 years after stalling for the past 14 months.

But with over 16,000 empty apartments in the borough, any return to normal is an uphill climb.

Vacancy has climbed to over six percent compared to two percent at the same time last year. It is now at its highest in 14 years after the coronavirus pandemic drove Manhattanites to more suburban and rural areas.

Nevertheless, appraiser Jonathan Miller, who compiled the Douglas Elliman reports, paints a glass half full picture.

JONATHAN MILLER

“While the usual records continued – high inventory and landlord concessions – Manhattan saw a sharp uptick in new leases for the first time since the summer of 2019,” said Miller.

“Falling rents are beginning to pull people back into the market resulting in the most October new leases signed since the financial crisis.”

According to the report, studio, one and two-bedroom apartments saw the biggest rent drop ever recorded in the borough.

5,641 new leases were signed in Manhattan in October – a 33.2 percent increase on the same time last year. They were listed at a discount that was more than double that offered in October 2019.

With just over 60 percent of all leases signed with concessions, the result was a drop in net effective media rent to $2,868 compared to $3,409 at this time last year.

The picture was similar in Brooklyn, where new leases surged to the second-highest October total in 12 years, as falling rents again expanded market activity.

But despite a 15 percent drop in year-on-year rents, the Queens rental market remains in a slump, according to the report.

According to Miller, “Northwest Queens is one subway stop away from Midtown – but it’s not seeing the uptick in new leases yet like Manhattan is. The lack of activity shows that pricing likely has to adjust more before more renters are pulled in.”

Low interest rates, negotiability, and high inventory are also giving first time buyers a chance at the Big Apple lifestyle.

Last month, Elliman reported that first-time buyers drove the new development market in Manhattan as discount there rose to. The average $3.6 million asking price for a new Manhattan condo ultimately closed at $2.37 million.

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Westchester county sales down 27% | Chappaqua Real Estate

WHITE PLAINS— The optimism felt by residential real estate practitioners in the first quarter of 2020 when strong sales figures in the lower Hudson Valley region, served by OneKey™ Multiple Listing Service LLC, seemed to be an indication of a robust year ahead for residential real estate sales. This optimism took an abrupt left turn in the second quarter when fears and uncertainty created by COVID -19 took hold, according to the 2020 Second Quarter Residential Real Estate Sales Report Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Sullivan Counties, New York released on July 7.

On March 7th, New York State Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency and as of March 20th all non-essential businesses were closed. This closure affected the ability of real estate practitioners to show properties, home inspectors to conduct inspections and attorneys to conduct closings in their offices.

Initially stunned, the creativity and resiliency of agents and brokers along with the enhanced use of technology created a slow but sure path forward. Agents began conducting business online, showing homes virtually. New York State permitted notary services online and attorneys conducted business in parking lots going between cars. Although sales figures still took a significant hit, continuing demand could result in a fairly rapid recovery.

Residential sales figures were down anywhere from a high of 39.8% in Bronx County (hardest hit by COVID-19), which translates to a total of 296 total residential sales compared to 492 sales in the second quarter of 2019 to a low of 6.2% in Putnam County, which translates to 258 sales as compared to 275 sales in Q2-2019.

More reflective of how home sales fared was Westchester County where residential sales were down 27.6% or 1,805 sales as compared to 2,493 sales in the second quarter of 2019; Orange County residential sales were down 27.9% or 742 sales as compared to 1,029 sales in Q2-2019; Rockland County sales were down 24.1% or 482 sales compared to 635 sales in Q2-2019 and Sullivan County sales fell 13.7% or 196 sales compared to 227 sales in Q2-2019.

Percentage declines for single-family residential sales, as compared to Q2-2019, closely mirrored the overall drops with Putnam County down 6.6%; Sullivan County 10.6% lower; Westchester County down 21.3%; Rockland County lower by 22.1% and Orange County sales fell 26.5%.

Single-family residential sales prices did not reflect the turmoil wrought by COVID-19 and were, in fact, up in every county covered by OneKey™ MLS with the exception of Putnam County, which experienced a relatively small decrease of 1.1% in median price. The median price in Putnam was $359,900 as compared to $365,000 one year ago. Sales prices increased 17.7% in Sullivan to $175,000; 6.7% in Rockland to $480,000; 12.5% in Orange to $298,000 and 1.2% in Westchester to $711,000. The median sales price is the midpoint price at which 50% of sales were higher and 50% of sales were lower.  

At this juncture it would be difficult, at best, to make any predictions about market conditions going forward. Anecdotally, we know that interest and demand have been high and brokers report that there are multiple offers on properties, many above asking price. It appears that the suburban market, as well as the exurban market, are the beneficiaries of city dwellers who no longer wish to be living in such close proximity to others or who, at least, want a second home to “escape” to. Factually we know that mortgage interest rates are at historic lows, which benefits the market.

Typically, the third quarter registers the highest quarterly sales for the year. It is important to note that those sales are generally a reflection of activity from the prior quarter. That activity, as we know it, simply did not occur and will likely have an impact on third quarter sales. There is, however, a very real demand for housing which, even if not reflected in third quarter sales, may be the catalyst to a full recovery of the market.

OneKey™ MLS is one of the largest Realtor subscriber-based multiple listing service in the country, dedicated to servicing more than 41,000 real estate professionals that serve Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Sullivan, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. OneKey™ MLS was formed in 2018, following the merger of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service and the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. For more information visit onekeymlsny.com.

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The coming rental market crisis | Chappaqua Real Estate

There’s a Rental Crisis Coming. Here’s How to Avoid It.
There’s a Rental Crisis Coming. Here’s How to Avoid It.

The Covid-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the U.S. rental market. Approximately 9 million households have so far failed to pay their May rent, according to industry data. Last month, 1.4 million fewer households paid their rent compared with this time last year.

The country’s 44 million rental households are uniquely vulnerable amid the current public health and economic crises. Renters often lack financial security and legal protections, not to mention bargaining power vis-a-vis their landlords. Worse, many are now being hit by the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Low-income renters, especially, work in industries crippled by Covid-related job loss: retail, hospitality and leisure, restaurants, and construction. Data suggests that 16.5 million renter households have already lost income because of the economic shutdown.

Faced with the specter of massive housing loss, policymakers have taken some steps to keep tenants in their homes, not only to help the renters but also as a critical public health measure — after all, it’s hard to comply with a “stay at home” order if you don’t have a home, or to socially distance if you’re forced to move into tight quarters with family or friends. The CARES Act has temporarily protected many renters by providing billions of dollars for emergency housing assistance, significantly expanded unemployment benefits and halted some evictions through July. Dozens of states and cities have also temporarily halted evictions, and cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia are providing emergency funding for tenants.

It appears these stopgaps are working, at least for now: We have not seen as severe a spike in nonpayment of rent as might otherwise be expected, and early rent payment figures from May look a bit more encouraging than April’s numbers.

But these remedies focus on the short term. Because of the scale of this downturn, many if not most unemployed renters will not have new jobs by the end of July. The federal government needs a long-term plan to prevent millions of unemployed renters from losing their homes when eviction moratoriums and unemployment sweeteners run out.

More shutdowns coming

Indeed, public health experts are predicting that the Covid-19 crisis will last well beyond the summer, and some government officials are bracing for waves of shutdowns that could continue for 12 to 18 months. It’s also likely that the U.S. will get hit with another, perhaps more deadly, wave of the virus next winter. When the economy does reopen, it will be in the throes of a deep recession during which millions of middle-income tenants will likely be unemployed and require housing assistance for the first time. Without smart, proactive policies to help millions of unemployed renters, we will be facing billions of dollars in rental debt, chaos at the eviction courts and overcrowded shelters primed for another outbreak.

Renters were struggling before the Covid-19 outbreak amid a well-documented affordable housing crunch. Nearly 40 percent of renter households are rent-burdened — meaning that they spend more than a third of their salary on rent — and two-thirds of renter households can’t afford an unexpected $400 expense.

On top of that, renters have few of the legal and financial protections offered to homeowners. Many states forbid renters from withholding rent even if their unit is in disrepair, most renters have no right to legal counsel during eviction proceedings, and once eviction judgments are handed down, renters can be evicted in a matter of days. And, partly as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, federal housing policy heavily favors homeowners over renters. Congress spends approximately three times as much on mortgage-interest reduction as it spends on rental housing vouchers each year. Whereas mortgage holders are protected by the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, notably through creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, no analogue exists for renters.

For the moment, these renters are being kept afloat through a combination of short-term emergency cash, unemployment benefits and eviction bans. But it won’t last past the summer. On top of the one-time $1,200 stimulus check, the extra $600 per week added to unemployment insurance checks expires in July. Unemployment doesn’t cover everyone, notably our 10 million to 12 million taxpaying undocumented immigrants — many of whom are renters — and those working in the informal economy providing child care, cleaning and other services. Another 8 million to 12 million unemployed Americans haven’t even bothered to apply, due to a well-documented backlog of claims and the difficult application process.

It’s not clear what appetite Congress has for extending the current short-term stimulus measures. Lawmakers might choose to extend the $600 per week unemployment sweetener past July. An extra $2,400 per month is more than enough to cover rent for most Americans, and once unemployment offices dig out from the initial crush of claims, delivering this assistance would be an efficient and direct way to keep more people in their homes. Yet Republicans are concerned that these expanded benefits are discouraging people from returning to work, and any such proposal would have to survive tough negotiations.

Meanwhile, the $300 billion recently provided in the most recent stimulus package to keep small business workers on payroll is likely already gone. Temporary rental assistance remains underfunded by tens of billions of dollars, and need is only growing as layoffs continue.

Mom-and-pop landlords

While landlords should be encouraged to reduce payments or implement repayment plans, canceling rent isn’t a viable option for many of them. The prototypical rental unit might be inside a high-rise apartment building owned by a real estate giant, but in fact the overwhelming majority of rental properties in this country are single-unit homes owned by mom-and-pop landlords. These property owners rely on rent to pay their own mortgages, to finance repairs and upkeep of rental properties, and to pay property taxes.

So, protecting tens of millions of renters in the midst of a deep recession won’t be easy. But Congress needs to recognize the importance of keeping rent checks flowing. Delinquent rents could easily spiral into foreclosed units and a consolidation of rental stock similar to Wall Street buy-ups after the Great Recession. That means an increase in substandard housing, worse property management and more marginalized Americans. What’s more, evictions cost U.S. cities hundreds of million of dollars per year. That money should be helping to prop up a struggling economy instead.

But while difficult, it’s not impossible to prevent a rental-housing crisis. Congress needs to expand direct rental assistance. That means cash for rent, sent either directly to landlords or renters.

The National Low Income Housing Coalition estimates that $100 billion in rental assistance would support 15.5 million low-income households over the next year. The Urban Institute’s estimate is about twice that, and accounts for renters of all incomes. That line item’s a drop in the bucket compared to the total stimulus funding Congress anticipates pushing through this year, and will stabilize millions of Americans’ largest household expenditure.

Several mechanisms

There are several mechanisms Congress could chose for this. Cash could be directly provided for rent through the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s existing Emergency Solutions Grant network, in which local services providers administer funds to those at risk of homelessness, or through temporary expansion of the department’s Housing Choice Voucher program, through which local housing agencies pay landlords a portion of low-income tenants’ rent. While some housing agencies might face a flurry of new applications, most unemployed American renter households with zero income would easily qualify.

Alternatively, Congress could attempt to funnel money more directly to landlords. The benefit of this approach is that there are fewer landlords than tenants, and they’re easier to track down. The drawback is that this approach would involve creating an entirely new program. If Congress goes this route, it could model a program on the Treasury Department’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), focused on landlords’ non-owner occupied homes, or expand the Federal Reserve’s Main Street Lending program to allow lending to the rental industry.

The bottom line is that Congress needs to find a way to inject funding into the rental ecosystem — whether through unemployment insurance, rental assistance or direct payment to landlords. Protecting our renters won’t be cheap, and it won’t be easy. But ignoring the coming crisis will cost billions more down the line in the form of rental debt and landlord foreclosures, and could keep millions of Americans from safely sheltering in place. That’s something we truly can’t afford.

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www.politico.com

Housing’s contribution to GDP rises | Chappaqua Real Estate

After declines for six consecutive quarters, the home building component of gross domestic product (GDP) increased during the third quarter of 2019. This gain was due to the housing rebound that has taken hold since the spring, with the pace of single-family permits rising since April and the rate of single-family starts increasing since May.

The overall housing share of GDP increased to 14.6% during the third quarter, as GDP growth slowed to a 1.9% rate. The home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment – increased modestly to 3.11% of total GDP and added 0.18 basis points to the headline GDP growth rate.

Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.

The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building, multifamily development, and remodeling contributions to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees.

For the third quarter of 2019, RFI was 3.1% of the economy, reaching a $594 billion seasonally adjusted annual pace (measured in inflation adjusted 2012 dollars).

The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services, which includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach, because without this measure, increases in homeownership would result in declines for GDP.

For the third quarter, housing services was 11.5% of the economy or $2.18 trillion on seasonally adjusted annual basis.

Taken together, housing’s share of GDP was 14.6% for the quarter.

Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle.

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Portland Oregon homeless crisis | Chappaqua Real Estate

As the homeless crisis continues to simmer in Oregon’s largest city, local officials working with nonprofit groups have deployed mobile hygiene stations in a bid to clean up some of the largest encampments.

Portland, with a metropolitan area of about 2.4 million people, has joined West Coast cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco in struggling with a growing homeless crisis that ranks among the worst in the country.

Safety resource website Security.org released a study on Monday that showed Oregon has the fourth-highest number of homeless people in the nation when adjusted for population. The study found Oregon has about 350 homeless people per 100,000 people, nearly double the national average of 168 per 100,000.  The study also found that Oregon’s homeless rate has increased by nearly 14.10 percent since 2014.

Oregon has seen its homeless rate rise by nearly 14.10 percent since 2014, according to a recent study.

Oregon has seen its homeless rate rise by nearly 14.10 percent since 2014, according to a recent study. 

On any given night, thousands of people can be found sleeping on the streets of Portland. The latest count, released in August, shows that, in 2019, more people were sleeping outside in Multnomah County than at any time in the last decade. Of the 2,037 unsheltered people, nearly 80 percent reported having one or more disabilities.

In January, Portland launched a “Navigation Team” with outreach workers that have spent time going out to homeless encampments, focusing on specific locations in order to reduce impacts to area communities.

“These are campsites that for a very long time have been generating concerns and safety issues,” Denis Theiault, a spokesman for the Joint Office for Homeless Services, told FOX12 on Tuesday. “Not just public safety issues but health and safety issues for the folks who are camping there as well as the folks who are near those sites.”

Officials in Portland have deployed a mobile hygiene unit which is comprised of two portable toilets, hand-washing stations, a garbage can, sharp box and lockers to help improve areas near homeless encampments.

Officials in Portland have deployed a mobile hygiene unit which is comprised of two portable toilets, hand-washing stations, a garbage can, sharp box and lockers to help improve areas near homeless encampments. 

Part of that outreach includes offering sanitation services, such as a mobile hygiene unit that is comprised of two portable toilets, hand-washing stations, a garbage can, a sharp box, and lockers.

The mobile station deploys around various homeless encampments with the largest populations, according to officials. The current trailer on Southeast Flavel Street under Interstate 205 was moved to the underpass about two weeks ago.

Tracy Vargas, who has been camping out in southeast Portland for over three years, told FOX12 she appreciates that there is now a place where she is able to have access to a bathroom.

“You’ve got to find a business around the area that will let you come in and go,” Vargas told FOX12 Tuesday. “A lot of times you get left to going out in the woods or wherever you can go.”

In the summer of 2019, Fox News embarked on an ambitious project to chronicle the toll progressive policies has had on the homeless crisis in four west coast cities: Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Portland, Ore. In each city, we saw a lack of safety, sanitation, and civility. Residents, the homeless and advocates say they’ve lost faith in their elected officials’ ability to solve the issue. Most of the cities have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars at the problem only to watch it get worse. This is what we saw in Portland.

Vargas said she’s also working with the homeless outreach team to get her birth certificate, and agrees the program is a “wonderful idea.

Pat Perkins said she’s seen an influx in homeless people in the 14 years she’s lived in the area, and the garbage and human waste have grown exponentially in the past five years.

“It seems like it could be a health hazard, especially when you see needles and feces on the ground,” Perkins told FOX12, saying having a designated place to throw trash, hazardous materials and use the bathroom will hopefully improve conditions.

The sanitation services may be the most visible part of the outreach group but it’s not their only goal, according to Theiault. He told FOX12 the group’s ultimate plan is to get people permanently off the streets by providing them with necessary things to move forward.

“We’re going to get them their ID, we’re going to get them a birth certificate, we’re going to get them medical connections,” he told FOX12.

City officials said Tuesday that at least 15 people from the camp under Interstate 205 have been placed in shelters, including two families.

Steep slowdown projected in home improvements | Chappaqua Real Estate

Growth in residential remodeling spending is expected to slow considerably by the middle of next year, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released today by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA projects that annual gains in homeowner expenditures for improvements and repairs will shrink from 6.3 percent in the current quarter to just 0.4 percent by the second quarter of 2020.

“Declining home sales and homebuilding activity coupled with slower gains in permitting for improvement projects will put the brakes on remodeling growth over the coming year,” says Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “However, if falling mortgage interest rates continue to incentivize home sales, refinancing, and ultimately remodeling activity, the slowdown may soften some.”

“With the release of new benchmark data from the American Housing Survey, we’ve also lowered our projection for market size about 6 percent to $323 billion,” says Abbe Will, Associate Project Director in the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “Spending in 2016 and 2017 was not nearly as robust as expected, growing only 5.4 percent over these two years compared to 11.9 percent as estimated.”

More information about the newly released benchmark data and changes to the projected LIRA market size can be found here.

Click image for full-size chart. 

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in 2007, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial American Housing Survey.

The LIRA is released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in the third week after each quarter’s closing. The next LIRA release date is October 17, 2019.

The Remodeling Futures Program, initiated by the Joint Center for Housing Studies in 1995, is a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the growth and changing characteristics of housing renovation and repair activity in the United States. The Program seeks to produce a better understanding of the home improvement industry and its relationship to the broader residential construction industry.

The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies advances understanding of housing issues and informs policy. Through its research, education, and public outreach programs, the Center helps leaders in government, business, and the civic sectors make decisions that effectively address the needs of cities and communities. Through graduate and executive courses, as well as fellowships and internship opportunities, the Center also trains and inspires the next generation of housing leaders.

Contact: Kerry Donahue, (617) 495-7640, kerry_donahue@harvard.edu

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https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/press-releases/steep-slowdown-projected-home-improvements