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Pending home sales fall 31% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Key Highlights

  • Pending home sales dropped for the fourth straight month, down 10.2% from August.
  • Month-over-month, contract signings pulled back in all four major U.S. regions.
  • Pending sales decreased in all regions compared to one year ago.

Pending home sales trailed off for the fourth consecutive month in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. All four major regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines in transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slumped 10.2% to 79.5 in September. Year-over-year, pending transactions slid by 31.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Persistent inflation has proven quite harmful to the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve has had to drastically raise interest rates to quell inflation, which has resulted in far fewer buyers and even fewer sellers.”

Yun noted that new home listings are down compared to one year ago since many homeowners are unwilling to give up the rock-bottom, 3% mortgage rates that they locked in prior to this year.

“The new normal for mortgage rates could be around 7% for a while,” Yun added. “On a $300,000 loan, that translates to a typical monthly mortgage payment of nearly $2,000, compared to $1,265 just one year ago – a difference of more than $700 per month. Only when inflation is tamed will mortgage rates retreat and boost home purchasing power for buyers.”

Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI descended 16.2% from last month to 64.2, a decline of 30.1% from September 2021. The Midwest index retracted 8.8% to 80.7 in September, down 26.7% from one year ago.

The South PHSI faded 8.1% to 97.0 in September, a drop of 30.0% from the prior year. The West index slipped by 11.7% in September to 62.7, down 38.7% from September 2021.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.

The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for October will be reported on November 18. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on November 30. All release times are 10 a.m. Eastern.

Information about NAR is available at nar.realtor. This and other news releases are posted in the newsroom at nar.realtor/newsroom. Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and surveys, are posted in the “Research and Statistics” tab.

InfographicPending Home Sales: September 2022
Related Links
 Northeast new home sales fall 15.6% | Mt Kisco Real Estate
A brief decline in mortgage rates helped to boost new home sales in August but sales are expected to move lower in the months ahead as rates have since moved higher and builder sentiment continues to fall due to declining housing affordability and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes in August increased 28.8% to a 685,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised reading in July, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 14% on a year-to-date basis despite the August upturn. Additionally, as sales cancellation rates increase, it is important to keep in mind that the Census data do not incorporate cancellation data. According to recent NAHB surveys, new home sales cancellations were approximately 25% in late August.
The August new home sales data indicate two important factors about the future path of single-family home building. There remains significant, unmet structural demand for housing (that is, a mismatch between the number of potential households and available housing). However, in the short-run the cyclical impacts of higher interest rates are the primary factor determining actualized, market demand for housing. Together, these factors point to ongoing weakness for single-family housing in the coming quarters, followed by a rebound in 2024 as interest rates eventually ease.
New single-family home inventory remained elevated at an 8.1 months’ supply. The count of homes available for sale, 461,000, is up 24.6% over last year. Of this total, only 49,000 of the new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. The remaining have not started construction or are currently under construction. Inventories of new homes should fall in the months ahead as single-family permitting and construction starts slow.
Reflecting gains for construction costs, the median new home price in August was $436,800, up 8.2% from a year ago. This is a diminished growth rate as a growing number of builders cut prices due to slackening demand. According to survey data collected with the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI, 24% of builders reported reducing home prices in September, up from 19% last month. Importantly, for housing affordability conditions, a year ago 25% of new home sales were priced below $300,000. In August, this share fell to just 12%.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 15.6% in the Northeast, 24.5% in the Midwest, 10.8% in the South and 16.7% in the West.
read more…
eyeonhousing.org
 Mortgage applications fall to 22 year low | Mt Kisco Real Estate
Mortgage applications decreased 6.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 3, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 75 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 18 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Weakness in both purchase and refinance applications pushed the market index down to its lowest level in 22 years. The 30-year fixed rate increased to 5.4 percent after three consecutive declines. While rates were still lower than they were four weeks ago, they remain high enough to still suppress refinance activity. Only government refinances saw a slight increase last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market has suffered from persistently low housing inventory and the jump in mortgage rates over the past months. These worsening affordability challenges have been particularly hard on prospective first-time buyers.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 32.2 percent of total applications from 31.5 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 8.2 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 11.3 percent from 10.8 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 11.4 percent from 10.2 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.5 percent the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.40 percent from 5.33 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 4.99 percent from 4.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.44 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 5.30 percent from 5.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.79 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.62 percent from 4.59 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 4.51 percent from 4.46 percent, with points remaining at 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. 
If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mba.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mba.org or click here.The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
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mba.org/newsandresearch/
 Building materials prices up 19% | Mt Kisco Real Estate
According to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prices of goods used in residential construction ex-energy (not seasonally adjusted) climbed 0.5% in April, following upwardly revised increases of 1.9% and 2.4% in March and February, respectively. This adds up to an 4.9% increase in building materials prices since the start of 2022. Year-over-year, building materials prices are up 19.2% and have risen 35.6% since the start of the pandemic.
The price index of services inputs to residential construction registered a similar increase, rising 0.9% in April. However, the index was upwardly revised for March, causing the monthly increase to jump from 3.2% to 6.8% over the month. As a result, the price index of services used in home building (including trade services, transportation and warehousing) has climbed 13.3% since the start of the year. Year-over-year, the index has increased 18.1% and is up 45.6% since the start of the pandemic.
Softwood Lumber
The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) declined 15.6% in April following a downwardly revised 5.4% increase in March and a 2.5% gain in February. As a result, the index is down 8.9% over the first four months of 2022. Since reaching its most recent trough in September 2021, prices have risen 60.4%.
Steel Products
Steel mill products prices (NSA) climbed 2.4% in April–the first monthly increase since December 2021. Nonetheless, the first four months of 2022 have been positive for the cost of derivative steel products after increasing 128.0% in 2021.
Ready-Mix Concrete
The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) resumed its upward trend after a small decline in March (-0.2%) as prices rose 1.3% (SA) in April. The index has climbed 8.9% year-over-year and is 12.6% higher than the January 2021 reading.
Gypsum Products
The PPI for gypsum products (SA) was flat in April. Year-over-year, the prices of gypsum products are 17.8% higher and have increased 23.5% since January 2021.
read more…
eyeonhousing.org
 Slowing Fourth Quarter Sales Did Not Derail Record 2021 Housing Market | Mt Kisco Real Estate
WHITE PLAINS—Residential sales in 2021 in the counties served by OneKey MLS, Inc. reached a historic peak. This, despite a slowing of sales in the fourth quarter in all areas served by OneKey MLS with the exception of Bronx County.
Arguably, some of the slowdown can be attributed to the dearth of inventory in the counties north of New York City, while the “Bronx Tale” is more closely aligned to a return of buyers to the New York City market.
While the view of the market in terms of units sold and dollar volume is a positive one, it was a frustrating arena for many buyers who lost homes to higher bidders and for the practitioners dealing with client frustration and disappointment.
Bronx County had the largest percentage increase in residential sales at 61.4% year-over-year with 2,553 units sold as compared to 1,582 sales for 2020. Total residential sales in the counties to the north were more in line with each other with Rockland County leading the group with an increase of 19.3% (3,631 units compared to 3,044 units in 2020); Westchester, a close second at 19.1% (11,855 units compared to 9,955 units for 2020); followed by Orange County with a 16% increase (5,406 residential sales compared to 4,662 sales in 2020); Putnam experienced a 10.6% increase over 2020 (1,605 units compared to 1,451) and Sullivan County had a 9.6% increase for 2021 (1,393 compared to 1,271 in 2020).
Sales of single-family residential units increased across the board with Bronx County sales increasing an eye-opening 45.8% (716 units vs. 491 units for 2020). The median price of a single-family residence in Bronx County increased 8.5% to $575,000. The largest percentage price increase for a single-family home occurred in Sullivan County with a 25.3% increase to $244,400 from $195,000 in 2020. Notably, Westchester County, with the highest prices in the region, had the smallest percentage increase in median price for the year at 6.1% ($780,000 as compared to $735,000 in 2020) and actually experienced a slight decrease (-0.8%) in median price for the fourth quarter. This may be indicative of price increases beginning to moderate.
Orange County has seen consistent increases in the single-family median price with a year-over-year increase of 16.5% ($367,000 compared to $315,000 in 2020). Orange County single-family home sales increased by 11.2 % for the year to 4,444 units (compared to 3,996 in 2020) despite a drop of 20.7% in the fourth quarter.
In Rockland County the single-family median sale price increased 12% to $560,000 (from $500,00 in 2020) and Putnam County saw its single-family median price rise 15.8% to $440,000 (from $380,000 in 2020).
In terms of percentages, condominium, multi-family (2-4 family), and in Westchester County, co-op sales as well, all outpaced the increases in single-family units and, in most instances, the percent of median price increase. In Westchester County, where co-op sales lagged in 2020, they increased 36.3% to 2,129 units (from 1,562 in 2020). Affordability is the most prevalent reason for these choices particularly in view of the price increases in single-family dwellings. For many suburban purchasers, condos and co-ops represent a means to build equity to purchase a single-family residence.
When focusing solely on the fourth quarter residential sales numbers, they reflect a return to the more typical seasonality in the market, which disappeared in the fourth quarter of 2021. While there were significant decreases in the number of residential sales in all counties, except the Bronx, when comparing the 2021 fourth quarter to the 2020 fourth quarter sales, it is important to remember that the fourth quarter 2020 sales were fueled by a surge in buying activity in the second half of 2020 once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. A more realistic comparison would be to the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2018, and the 2021 fourth quarter residential sales numbers were significantly higher than either of those two years.
Indicators such as days on market were down significantly in all market areas. Homes selling close to or at list price and above list price were a relatively common event. Lack of inventory continues to be a problem with no meaningful resolution on the near horizon. With the Fed tightening monetary policy it is expected that mortgage rates will begin a steady rise in 2022. However, despite these headwinds, the real estate market in the New York City and greater suburban area, including the lower Hudson Valley, have shown remarkable resiliency in the last year and a half, and we expect a strong real estate market to continue into 2022.
With the exception of the second quarter of 2020, the real estate market has been an anomaly outperforming the economy. Sales and prices have enjoyed a trajectory which is likely unsustainable going forward, however the economy of the Hudson Valley continues to improve and grow more vibrant, which bodes well for real estate. It is likely that price increases will moderate and additional product will come on the market, which will sustain a strong market in the near term.
HGAR/OneKey® MLS 2021 Fourth Quarter Residential Real Estate Sales Report
Data provided by OneKey MLS, one of the largest Realtor subscriber-based MLS’s in the country, dedicated to servicing more than 46,310 real estate professionals that serve Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Sullivan, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. OneKey MLS was formed in 2018, following the merger of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service and the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island.
realestateindepth.com/news/
 Manhattan apartment sales hit a 32-year high | Mt Kisco Real Estate
More apartments sold in Manhattan in the third quarter of 2021 than at any point during the last 30+ years of tracking, a new real estate market report says. According to a Douglas Elliman report published this week, there were 4,523 closed co-op and condos sales in the quarter, more than triple the same period last year and 76.5 percent higher than the same time in 2019. Even more indicative of the market turnaround following Covid-19, this quarter passed the previous sales record of 3,939 reported in the second quarter of 2007. And in its own market report, The Corcoran Group found sales volume in Manhattan topped $9.5 billion, the highest quarterly volume total ever recorded. This passes the previous record of $8.54 billion set in the second quarter of 2019.
The borough’s sales surge was driven by “rising vaccine adoption, low mortgage rates, and improving economic conditions,” as the city recovers from the pandemic, according to the report.
Compared to the condo glut the Manhattan market saw last year largely because of Covid, inventory has fallen significantly. The report sites 7,694 listings this quarter, a decline of 17.4 percent compared to the same time last year. However, inventory remains high when looking at the 10-year average for the third quarter.
Another notable figure from the report is the increase in the number of “bidding wars,” which includes properties sold above the last listing price. Manhattan’s share of bidding wars rose to 8.3 percent, its highest level in three years, but still way below the 31 percent record set in the third quarter of 2015.
“What we’re seeing right now is a catch-up,” Jonathan Miller, the real estate appraiser who authored the report, told the New York Times in an interview. “All the suburbs were booming while Manhattan was seeing sales at half the normal rate last year. Now we’re seeing this massive surge.”
A third-quarter market report from Brown Harris Stevens looked at resale apartments and how the market is favoring sellers. The average price of resale apartments rose for co-ops by 17 roughly percent and for condos by 15 percent compared to last year. Plus, according to the report, sellers received 97.4 percent of their last asking price, the highest percentage in nearly four years.
read more…
6sqft.com/manhattan
 Mortgage rates average 3.02% | Mt Kisco Real Estate
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.02 percent.
“Mortgage rates have risen above three percent for the first time in ten weeks,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As the economy progresses and inflation remains elevated, we expect that rates will continue to gradually rise in the second half of the year. For those homeowners who have not yet refinanced – and there remain many borrowers who could benefit from doing so – now is the time.”
News Facts
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.02 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 24, 2021, up from last week when it averaged 2.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.13 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.34 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.24 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.59 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.53 percent with an average 0.3 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.52 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.08 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
 New homes material prices rising 26% | Mt Kisco Real Estate
A post published last week discussed how record numbers of builders were reporting on broad-based shortages of building materials and products.  The source of the information was the May survey for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).  The same survey asked the HMI panel of single-family builders how total material costs for the same house have changed over the past 12 months.
The most comment response (checked by 28.0 percent of builders) was that materials costs increased by 20 to 29.99 percent.  However, 15.9 percent indicated that costs increased by 30 to 39.99 percent, 5.9 percent indicated 40 to 49.99 percent, and 15.2 percent even indicated that their costs had increased by 50 percent or more.
On average, the 12-month increase in material costs for the same house was 26.1 percent.  Historically, NAHB has included the material cost question on its HMI questionnaire six times since 2012.  The 2021 figure of 26.1 percent is the highest the average 12-month cost increase has been over that span—by a wide margin.  The previous record was 6.1 percent recorded in 2017.
Material availability and costs are one of several factors, including the cost of regulation and a general shortage of construction labor, limiting the supply of housing, particularly for the entry-level market where additional inventory is badly needed.
read more…
eyeonhousing.org
 Existing home sales up 25% | Mt Kisco Real Estate
After reaching almost 15-year high last month, existing home sales, as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), declined for the first time in six months amid inventory shortage and surging prices.
Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million in November. On a year-over-year basis, sales were still 25.8% higher than a year ago.
The first-time buyer share stayed at 32% in November, same as last month and a year ago. However, price gains threaten this share in the future. The November inventory level fell to record-low 1.28 million units from 1.42 million units in October and is down from 1.64 million units a year ago.
At the current sales rate, the November unsold inventory represents an all-time low 2.3-month supply, down from 2.5-month in October and 3.7-month a year ago. This low level supply of resale homes is good news for home construction.
Homes stayed on the market for an average of just 21 days in November, an all-time low, seasonally even with last month and down from 38 days a year ago. In November, 73% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.
The November all-cash sales share was 20% of transactions, up from 19% last month but unchanged from a year ago.
Tight supply continues to push up home prices. The November median sales price of all existing homes was $310,800, up 14.6% from a year ago, representing the 105th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median existing condominium/co-op price of $271,400 in November was up 9.5% from a year ago.
Regionally, three of four regions saw a decline in existing home sales in November. Sales in the Northeast, Midwest and South fell 2.2%, 2.5% and 3.8% respectively from last month, while sales in the West remained unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, sales still grew by double-digit in all four regions, ranging from 24.2% in the Midwest to 27.3% in the West.
Though sales took a marginal step back in November, existing home sales have outperformed 2019 levels and housing demand is expected to remain strong due to low mortgage rates and remote-work flexibilities. However, the imbalance between housing supply and demand could hamper future sales by driving up home prices and restraining affordability.
read more…
eyeonhousing.org
 Case Shiller home prices up 5.2% | Mt Kisco Real Estate
U.S. home prices posted a robust gain in August — another sign that the American housing market remains strong despite economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, released Tuesday, showed that home prices climbed 5.2% in August from a year earlier, accelerating from a 4.1% gain in July. The gain was stronger than economists had expected.
Phoenix (up 9.9% from August 2019), Seattle (up 8.5%) and San Diego (7.6%) posted the biggest gains. All 19 cities in the index recorded price increases. The 20-city index excluded prices from the Detroit metropolitan area index because of delays related to pandemic at the recording office in Wayne County, which includes Detroit.
Helped by rock-bottom mortgage rates, the U.S. housing market has been a source of strength as the U.S. economy climbs back from an April-June freefall caused by the pandemic and the measures taken to contain it.
“The supply of for-sale homes, already extremely tight, has only become more constrained in recent months, and historically low mortgage rates continue to encourage many buyers to enter the market,” Matthew Speakman, economist at the real estate firm Zillow, said in a research note. “This heightened competition for the few homes on the market has placed consistent, firm pressure on home prices for months now, and there are few signs that this will relent any time soon.”
The National Association of Realtors reported last week that sales of existing shot up 9.4% in September and that the median selling price of a home climbed 15% from a year earlier to $311,800. And the Commerce Department reported that home building rose 1.9% in September on a surge in construction of single-family homes.
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 https://wtop.com/real-estate/2020/10/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-home-prices-up-5-2-in-august/