Category Archives: Armonk

Home Builders Warn of Significant Affordability Declines | Armonk Real Estate

Housing affordability posted a modest gain for average conditions in the first quarter of 2022 as a strong jump in national median income helped to offset a gradual rise in interest rates. However, home builders warn of current deteriorating conditions as a sharp jump in mortgage rates in March and April coupled with ongoing building material supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and high inflation drive up housing costs.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), 56.9% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of January and end of March were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $90,000. While this is up from the 54.2% of homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2021, current market indicators point to worsening affordability conditions.

The first quarter HOI was calculated based on the following key factors:

  • An average quarterly interest rate of 3.86%, up 70 basis points from the previous quarter
  • A 2022 median income of $90,000, up from last year’s $79,900.
  • A national median home price of $365,000, up $5,000 from the fourth quarter of 2021 and a whopping $45,000 from the first quarter of 2021.

Affordability Dips Below 50% Based on Recent Mortgage Rates

Keeping all other factors the same and calculating nationwide affordability conditions based on end of April mortgage rates of 5.11% instead of the first quarter average of 3.86%, the HOI would have fallen from 54.2 in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 48.7 today.

This means that based on where the housing market stands today, just 48.7% of homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to median-income families, the lowest affordability level recorded on the HOI since the beginning of the revised series in the first quarter of 2012.

“The first quarter reading is a backward gauge, as surging interest rates, ongoing building material supply chain constraints and labor shortages continue to raise construction costs and put upward pressure on home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga.

Every quarter-point hike in mortgage rates means that 1.3 million households are priced out of the market for a nationwide median priced home. And with the Federal Reserve moving aggressively to raise short-term interest rates and reduce its holding of mortgage-backed securities to combat inflation that is running at a 40-year high, mortgage rates are expected to rise even further.

“Looking at current market conditions, affordability woes continue to mount as rising interest rates and home building material costs that are up 20% year-over-year are causing housing costs to rise much faster than wages,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The HOI falling below 50 using these real-time estimates is an indication of significant housing affordability burdens, particularly for frustrated, prospective first-time buyers. The best way to ease growing affordability challenges is for policymakers to address ongoing supply chain disruptions that will allow builders to construct more affordable homes.”

The Most and Least Affordable Markets in the First Quarter

Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., was the nation’s most affordable major housing market, defined as a metro with a population of at least 500,000. There, 92.3% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $89,500.

Top five affordable major housing markets:

  1. Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.
  2. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.
  3. ScrantonWilkes-Barre, Pa.
  4. Rochester, N.Y.
  5. Dayton-Kettering, Ohio

Meanwhile, Wheeling, W.Va.-Ohio., was rated the nation’s most affordable small market, with 97.3% of homes sold in the first quarter being affordable to families earning the median income of $75,400.

Top five affordable small housing markets:

  1. Wheeling, W.Va.-Ohio
  2. Cumberland, Md.-W.Va.
  3. Elmira, N.Y.
  4. Utica-Rome, N.Y.
  5. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill.

For the sixth straight quarter, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., remained the nation’s least affordable major housing market. There, just 8.3% of the homes sold during the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $90,100.

Top five least affordable major housing markets—all located in California:

  1. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale
  2. Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine
  3. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City
  4. San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad
  5. Stockton

The top five least affordable small housing markets were also in the Golden State. At the very bottom of the affordability chart was Salinas, Calif., where 9.2% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $90,100.

Top five least affordable small housing markets—all located in California:

  1. Salinas
  2. Santa Maria-Santa Barbara
  3. San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles
  4. Napa
  5. Santa Cruz-Watsonville

Please visit nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.

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nahb.org

Mortgage applications are down 56% | Armonk Real Estate

Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022. 

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 13.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.  

“Mortgage applications dropped to their lowest level since December 2019 last week, as mortgage rates continued to inch higher. The 30-year fixed rate was 4.06 percent, almost a full percentage point higher than a year ago. Higher mortgage rates have quickly shut off refinances, with activity down in six of the first seven weeks of 2022. Conventional refinances in particular saw a 17 percent decrease last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week. While the average loan size did not increase this week, it remained close to the survey’s record high.”  

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 50.1 percent of total applications from 52.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 5.1 percent of total applications.  

The FHA share of total applications increased to 8.7 percent from 8.3 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 9.9 percent from 9.3 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.4 percent from the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.06 percent from 4.05 percent, with points increasing to 0.48 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 3.84 percent from 3.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.  

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.09 percent from 4.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.  

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.42 percent from 3.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.45 from 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.26 percent from 3.36 percent, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. 

Westchester 2021 sales up 10.4% | Armonk Real Estate

“2021 continued to be a record-breaking year in real estate, not just in the markets we serve but also nationally,” Liz Nunan, president and CEO of Houlihan Lawrence, said in the brokerage’s newly released fourth-quarter report on lower Hudson Valley real estate.

Liz Nunan

Home sales in Westchester were up 10.4% for 2021, while Putnam and Dutchess counties reported gains of 8% and 2.7%, respectively. Nearly every submarket in Westchester posted double-digit sales gains, according to the report.

“While the first half of 2021 varied in specific metrics to the second half, two factors remained constant. The inventory was at an all-time low, and buyer demand was exceptionally strong,” Nunan said. “As the year progressed, the sales outpaced inventory replacement, and this further restriction led to a decline in pending sales and, eventually, closed sales.”

In the fourth quarter, the number of listings declined 42% in Westchester County year over year. In Putnam County, that number was down 34%, and in Dutchess County listings were down 44%.

“2022 will likely not see the record-breaking number of sales seen in 2021. But until the supply and demand fall into balance, the market will still be charged with buyers, and sellers will continue to prosper,” Nunan said.

In the fourth quarter, 1,669 single-family homes sold in Westchester, compared with 2,228 in the first quarter of 2020, a drop of 25.1%. The median sale price was $725,000, a 1% drop from $732,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020.

For all of 2021, 7,541 single-family homes changed hands in Westchester, compared with 6,649 in 2020, a 10.4% gain. The median sale price for the year went up to $780,000 from $735,000 in 2020, a 6.1% gain.

The number of condominiums sold in Westchester went up by 31.8% from 1,242 in 2020 to 1,637 in 2021. The median sale price also was up at $425, 000 in 2021 compared with $403,000 in 2020, a 5.5% increase.

In the fourth quarter, condo sales dropped 4.3% from 470 in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 450 in 2021’s fourth quarter. The median sale price increased 4.9% from $410,000 in Q4 of 2020 to $430,000 in Q4 of 2021.

Co-op sales in Westchester were up by 35.3% from 1,562 units sold in 2020 to 2,114 in 2021. The median sale price was $194,100, up 6.1% from 2020’s $183,000.

For the fourth quarter of 2021, co-op sales stood at 547 units, a 10.3% increase from the 496 units that changed hands in the fourth quarter of 2020. The median sale price inched up 2.9% from $185,000 in Q4 of 2020 to $190,400 in Q4 of 2021.

In Putnam, there were 1,342 single-family homes sold in 2021 compared with 1,241 in 2020. The median sale price for the year was $440,000, up 16% from 2020’s $379,999. It also was up 16% for the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, reaching $455,750 from $394,250.

There were 199 condos sold in Putnam during the year, compared with 175 sold in 2020, a 15% increase. The median sale price was up 12.7% at $290,000 compared with 2020’s $257,250. For the fourth quarter of 2021, 43 units were sold, a drop of 28.3% from the 60 units sold in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the median sale price went up 12.1% from $280,950 in Q4 of 2020 to $315,000 in Q4 of 2021.

In Dutchess County, 2,759 single-family homes were sold in 2021 compared with 2,686 in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, 665 single-family homes sold compared with 997 in 2020’s fourth quarter, a drop of 33.3%. The median sale price rose 14.7% from $339,900 in 2020 to $390,000 in 2021. For the fourth quarter of 2021, the median sale price was up 7.3% to $396,000 from $369,000 in the same period in 2020.

There were 628 condominiums sold in 2021 in Dutchess, up 38% from the 455 that sold in 2020. There were 152 sold in Q4 of 2021 compared with 159 in Q4 of 2020, a 4.4% drop. The median condo sale price was $231,056 for Q4 of 2021, down 7.6% from $250,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020. For the year,the median sale price was $235,000, a 5.4% increase from 2020’s $225,000.

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Building material prices up 14% | Armonk Real Estate

The prices of goods used in residential construction ex-energy climbed 1.8% in November (not seasonally adjusted), according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly increase was driven by price increases in nearly every product category.

Building materials prices have increased 14.1% year-to-date, more than tripling the November YTD increase of the prior year (+3.9%) and well above the average YTD increase of 1.5% between 2015 and 2020. The index has climbed 2.5% over the past two months following a 1.5% decline between July and September.

The price index of services inputs to residential construction decreased 0.8% in November, continuing a four-month trend during which the index has declined 10.1%.

Wholesale and retail trade services decreased 1.3% in November which more than offset price increases in transportation and warehousing (+1.0%) and services less trade, transportation, and warehousing (+0.3%). Nonetheless, the price index of services used in residential construction (excluding labor) is 13.5% higher than it was 12 months prior and 22.3% higher and 22.3% than the January 2020 reading.

The PPI for all inputs to residential construction–which is a weighted average of goods and services, increased 0.3% in November–has climbed 17.3% over the past 12 months, and is 22.7% higher than its pre-pandemic level.

Product Detail: Goods

Softwood Lumber

The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) increased 6.9% in November and has gained 16.1% since September.  Once again, as was stated in last month’s PPI post, the recent trend of mill prices—which have more than doubled since late August and are up 37% over the past four weeks—suggests that the softwood lumber PPI is headed for another sizable gain in December.

The PPI of most durable goods for a given month is largely based on prices paid for goods shipped, not ordered, in the survey month. This can result in lags relative to cash market prices during periods of long lead times.

Steel Products

Steel mill products prices rose 2.4% in November, the smallest monthly increase since May 2021. The last monthly price decrease in steel mill products occurred in August 2020, and the index has climbed 151.4% in the months since–with more than 80% of that increase taking place in 2021.

Since the inception of the steel mill products PPI, it has doubled over four non-overlapping periods which have averaged 181 months in duration.  In other words, over the last 60 years it has taken roughly 15 years for the price of steel mill products to double, on average.  Given that context, the recent pace of price increases has been incredible—it took only 11 months for steel prices to double between August 2020 and July 2021.

Ready-Mix Concrete

The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) gained 0.9% in November after increasing 0.1% in October.  The index for RMC has risen 8.3% since January 2020 and 6.6% YTD—the largest year-to-date increase in November since 2005.

At the regional level, prices increased in the Northeast (+2.5%%) and Midwest (+4.7%) while prices fell in the South (-0.9%) and West (-1.1%) regions.

 Gypsum Products

In November, the PPI for gypsum products declined (-0.2%) for only the second time in 2021.  Gypsum products prices have climbed 19.8% over the past 12 months and are up 18.8% in 2021—more than quadruple the largest percentage YTD increase in November since seasonally adjusted data became available in 2012.

Paint

The PPIs for exterior and interior architectural coatings (i.e., paint) increased 1.5% and 0.2%, respectively, in November. Neither index has declined since January 2021.

The YTD price increases of architectural coatings is unprecedented with exterior and interior paint prices climbing 16.7% and 10.9%, respectively, thus far in 2021.  In contrast, November YTD price increases averaged just 2.1% for exterior paint and 1.4% for interior paint from 2013 through 2020 (the most recent data available).

Paint prices began a series of large monthly increases in the wake of the winter storm that devastated Texas earlier this year as the petrochemical industry—upon which paint manufacturing is heavily reliant—is highly concentrated in the state.

Other Building Materials

The chart below shows the 12-month and year-to-date price changes of other price indices relevant to the residential construction industry.

With the recent passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (a.k.a. the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill), the construction materials index is particularly salient.  This index, which has increased 29.1% year-to-date and 40.9% since January 2020, is more heavily weighted with products used in large amounts in the production of “traditional” infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, rail).

Product Detail: Services

Building Materials Wholesaling and Retailing

The Producer Price Index for building materials wholesaling decreased 1.4% in November and the building materials retailing PPI declined 1.6%.  The wholesale and retail services indices measure changes in the nominal gross margins for goods sold by retailers and wholesalers. Gross profit margins of retailers, in dollar terms, have declined 22.1% since reaching an all-time high in June 2021 but remain 33.4% higher than the January 2020 level.

Building materials wholesale and retail indexes which together account for roughly two-thirds of the PPI for “inputs to residential construction, services.”

Professional Services

Professional services is the third most heavily weighted category in the service inputs to residential construction PPI.  The prices of legal, architectural, and engineering services rose 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, respectively, in November. Although the year-to-date increase in prices of professional services used in residential construction are quite modest compared to that of materials, prices have increased more in 2021 than they had by November 2020; the difference is especially striking for engineering and architectural services.

Although the difference in YTD price changes for legal services is small, the percentage increases are relatively large.  This follows with a trend in recent years.  Since November 2018, the price of legal services has risen 13.2%–much higher than the three-year increase in architectural (+1.7%) and engineering services (+5.9%).

Metal Treatment Services

Prices of metal treatment services increased 0.7%, on average, in November.  The subset of these services used to calculate the services inputs to residential construction includes plating and polishing, coating and allied services, and heat treating.  Metal coating and allied services have increased the most— +14.1% (NSA)—since the start of 2021.  Metal heat treating and plating and polishing services have increased 5.4% and 2.0%, respectively, year-to-date.  The average price increase of the three services averaged 0.1% over the course of 2020.

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Inventory down, sales slow | Armonk Real Estate

New listings of homes for sale fell 9% from a year earlier and closed home sales were down 5%.

The median price of homes sold in September was $376,800, up 14% from a year earlier, the lowest growth rate since December 2020. September marked the 14th consecutive month of double-digit price gains. Closed home sales and new listings of homes for sale both fell from a year earlier, by 5% and 9% respectively.

“The severe lack of inventory is restricting home sales, said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Even though plenty of people bought homes last year, many homebuyers waited while the pandemic went from bad to worse and remote-work policies were finalized. The homebuyers who are just beginning their search are finding that the well has run dry. But I am hopeful that as it becomes easier to get building materials, we will finally have a strong year for new construction in 2022. That’s what the market needs more than anything.”

Market SummarySeptember 2021Month-Over-MonthYear-Over-Year
Median sale price$376,800-0.8%13.9%
Homes sold, seasonally-adjusted613,2001.6%-5.4%
Pending sales, seasonally-adjusted604,9002.9%2.8%
New listings, seasonally-adjusted631,800-2.3%-9.0%
All Homes for sale, seasonally-adjusted1,384,200-2.0%-19.0%
Median days on market182-11
Months of supply1.40-0.3
Sold above list47.8%-4.1 pts13.8 pts
Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate$381,9007.3%19.9%
Average Sale-to-list101.0%-0.6 pts1.6 pts
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate2.90%+0.06 pts+0.01 pts

† – ‘pts’ = percentage point change

Median sale prices increased from a year earlier in all but one of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks: Bridgeport, CT, where prices were down 2.2%. A year ago prices were up 32% in Bridgeport as the area experienced a sudden flood of interest from homebuyers looking to leave New York. The current price decline is likely a cooling from an extremely overheated state.

The largest price increases in September 2021 were in North Port, FL (+30%), Salt Lake City (+28%) and Austin, TX (+27%).

Home Prices Up 14% in September

Seasonally-adjusted home sales in September were down 5% from a year earlier, the second annual decline in 16 months. Home sales fell in 66 of the 85 largest metro areas Redfin tracks. The biggest sales declines were seen in New Orleans (-42%), Bridgeport, CT (-24%) and Salt Lake City (-23%). The largest gains were in places where sales were still somewhat depressed in September 2020, including New York (+26%), Honolulu (+24%), and San Jose, CA (+15%).

Seasonally Adjusted Home Sales Down 5% Year Over Year

Seasonally adjusted active listings—the count of all homes that were for sale at any time during the month—fell 19% year over year in September, on par with the previous month.

Only three of the 85 largest metros tracked by Redfin posted a year-over-year increase in the number of seasonally adjusted active listings of homes for sale: Austin, TX (+3%), Tacoma, WA (+3%) and Columbus, OH (+0.3%). The biggest year-over-year declines in active housing supply in September were in Baton Rouge, LA (-53%), Salt Lake City (-50%) and Rochester, NY (-47%).

Seasonally Adjusted Homes for Sale Fell 19%

Seasonally adjusted new listings of homes for sale were down 9% in September from a year earlier, only the second decline since February. New listings fell from a year ago in 75 of the 85 largest metro areas. The biggest declines were in Baton Rouge (-59%), Allentown, PA (-57%) and Salt Lake City, UT (-51%). New listings rose the most from a year ago in Austin, TX (+18%), Tacoma, WA (+9%) and Portland, OR (+8%).

Seasonally Adjusted New Listings Down 9% Year Over Year

Measures of housing market competition based on completed home sales eased further in September.

The typical home that sold in September went under contract in 18 days—more than a week faster than a year earlier, when homes sold in a median 29 days, but up three days from the record low in June.

Time on Market Inched Up to 18 Days in September

In September, 48% of homes sold above list price, down 8 percentage points from the record high in June, but up 14 percentage points from a year earlier.

48% of Homes Sold Over List Price in September

The average sale-to-list price ratio also dipped slightly in September to 101%, down from a record high of 102.5% in June but up from 99.4% a year earlier.

Average Sale to List Price Ratio Fell to 101% in September

Other September Highlights

Competition

Prices

Sales

Inventory

Redfin Estimate

Below are market-by-market breakdowns for prices, inventory, new listings and sales for markets with populations of 750,000 or more. For downloadable data on all of the markets Redfin tracks, visit the Redfin Data Center.

Median Sale Price

Redfin MetroMedian Sale PriceMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-Year
Albany, NY$270,0000.0%9.1%
Allentown, PA$270,5000.2%13.9%
Anaheim, CA$900,000-0.6%15.1%
Atlanta, GA$330,0000.0%16.6%
Austin, TX$452,000-4.8%27.3%
Bakersfield, CA$328,5004.3%20.6%
Baltimore, MD$342,000-2.3%5.2%
Baton Rouge, LA$242,400-3.8%7.7%
Birmingham, AL$257,9003.2%5.3%
Boston, MA$605,000-4.0%8.0%
Bridgeport, CT$484,000-8.7%-2.2%
Buffalo, NY$217,800-3.0%15.4%
Camden, NJ$275,0000.0%17.0%
Charleston, SC$355,000-1.4%13.6%
Charlotte, NC$343,0000.0%16.3%
Chicago, IL$294,500-3.4%6.7%
Cincinnati, OH$240,000-2.4%10.6%
Cleveland, OH$185,900-7.1%6.2%
Columbus, OH$279,900-1.8%13.4%
Dallas, TX$375,000-1.1%17.2%
Dayton, OH$180,0000.6%6.5%
Denver, CO$530,0000.0%16.5%
Detroit, MI$186,0003.3%12.7%
El Paso, TX$200,000-4.3%9.3%
Elgin, IL$270,000-1.8%8.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL$350,000-1.4%14.8%
Fort Worth, TX$315,0000.0%18.9%
Frederick, MD$480,000-4.0%8.3%
Fresno, CA$370,000-0.3%15.6%
Grand Rapids, MI$269,7001.2%10.1%
Greensboro, NC$230,0002.5%16.2%
Greenville, SC$269,500-2.2%14.2%
Hartford, CT$275,000-3.5%9.1%
Houston, TX$300,000-2.3%14.8%
Indianapolis, IN$250,0000.0%11.1%
Jacksonville, FL$310,5000.5%19.4%
Kansas City, MO$270,000-1.8%3.9%
Knoxville, TN$289,0000.2%18.0%
Lake County, IL$292,0000.7%6.2%
Las Vegas, NV$378,0000.8%19.3%
Los Angeles, CA$815,000-0.6%12.1%
Louisville, KY$240,0001.5%8.1%
McAllen, TX$203,5008.8%25.1%
Memphis, TN$245,000-1.2%1.2%
Miami, FL$406,800-0.8%14.6%
Milwaukee, WI$270,0000.0%10.2%
Minneapolis, MN$345,000-1.4%10.8%
Montgomery County, PA$390,000-3.7%8.2%
Nashville, TN$390,000-0.8%19.1%
Nassau County, NY$590,000-1.7%12.4%
New Brunswick, NJ$429,000-0.2%11.1%
New Haven, CT$275,000-2.5%5.8%
New Orleans, LA$289,4007.6%17.2%
New York, NY$650,000-3.7%13.0%
Newark, NJ$465,000-4.1%6.7%
North Port, FL$389,0003.5%29.7%
Oakland, CA$940,0000.0%13.3%
Oklahoma City, OK$226,3002.9%9.9%
Omaha, NE$250,000-2.0%8.2%
Orlando, FL$335,0000.3%18.8%
Oxnard, CA$765,500-1.2%9.4%
Philadelphia, PA$260,000-4.1%6.1%
Phoenix, AZ$417,0001.2%25.6%
Pittsburgh, PA$210,800-4.2%4.9%
Portland, OR$500,000-3.3%11.2%
Providence, RI$385,000-0.9%14.9%
Raleigh, NC$380,5001.5%20.8%
Richmond, VA$317,500-2.3%7.8%
Riverside, CA$505,0000.0%16.1%
Rochester, NY$195,000-2.5%11.4%
Sacramento, CA$550,0000.0%16.7%
Salt Lake City, UT$489,0003.6%27.8%
San Antonio, TX$297,0000.7%14.2%
San Diego, CA$760,0002.0%14.8%
San Francisco, CA$1,530,0001.3%5.5%
San Jose, CA$1,340,000-1.1%11.8%
Seattle, WA$710,900-2.6%11.8%
St. Louis, MO$230,0000.0%7.5%
Tacoma, WA$501,000-0.8%16.5%
Tampa, FL$320,0001.6%20.1%
Tucson, AZ$321,4002.1%23.1%
Tulsa, OK$225,000-2.2%5.6%
Honolulu, HI$683,500-2.4%6.5%
Virginia Beach, VA$283,000-2.4%4.8%
Warren, MI$270,000-1.7%8.9%
Washington, D.C.$480,000-2.0%5.0%
West Palm Beach, FL$365,0000.0%14.1%
Worcester, MA$371,0000.3%11.9%
National$376,800-0.8%13.9%

Homes Sold

Redfin MetroHomes SoldMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-Year
Albany, NY1,079-11.0%-5.6%
Allentown, PA1,002-8.9%-12.6%
Anaheim, CA3,027-5.1%-9.5%
Atlanta, GA9,936-10.4%-7.7%
Austin, TX3,372-7.0%-10.3%
Bakersfield, CA826-9.1%-10.8%
Baltimore, MD4,323-8.4%-0.1%
Baton Rouge, LA1,011-1.9%-13.8%
Birmingham, AL1,643-10.9%-2.2%
Boston, MA4,975-11.4%-3.8%
Bridgeport, CT1,394-14.3%-23.5%
Buffalo, NY1,090-15.7%-9.8%
Camden, NJ1,947-8.1%-2.3%
Charleston, SC1,676-11.1%-11.6%
Charlotte, NC4,688-6.9%-2.8%
Chicago, IL9,704-14.3%-6.1%
Cincinnati, OH3,025-8.2%-7.6%
Cleveland, OH3,176-2.7%6.5%
Columbus, OH3,341-6.3%2.8%
Dallas, TX6,457-6.6%-8.1%
Dayton, OH1,2250.4%-3.2%
Denver, CO5,574-6.8%-9.2%
Detroit, MI2,097-4.9%-3.0%
El Paso, TX869-13.3%-9.1%
Elgin, IL1,247-12.9%-9.2%
Fort Lauderdale, FL3,035-14.5%-3.9%
Fort Worth, TX3,352-5.7%-5.7%
Frederick, MD1,838-11.9%-2.2%
Fresno, CA843-7.1%3.4%
Grand Rapids, MI1,408-8.3%-17.6%
Greensboro, NC1,122-2.0%9.1%
Greenville, SC1,3590.7%-2.2%
Hartford, CT1,726-10.5%-6.3%
Houston, TX9,447-8.3%0.6%
Indianapolis, IN3,711-4.2%-0.8%
Jacksonville, FL2,821-14.1%-11.5%
Kansas City, MO3,689-7.2%-4.8%
Knoxville, TN1,409-5.2%-4.7%
Lake County, IL1,455-12.2%-8.1%
Las Vegas, NV4,154-3.5%4.9%
Los Angeles, CA6,889-1.5%3.3%
Louisville, KY1,880-2.1%3.2%
McAllen, TX376-13.2%-18.4%
Memphis, TN1,256-15.8%3.7%
Miami, FL2,915-17.8%3.8%
Milwaukee, WI2,181-10.3%-7.3%
Minneapolis, MN6,391-9.8%-5.8%
Montgomery County, PA2,709-16.7%-7.3%
Nashville, TN3,692-9.1%-11.9%
Nassau County, NY2,934-12.5%-8.5%
New Brunswick, NJ3,483-12.5%-18.6%
New Haven, CT1,194-8.5%-7.5%
New Orleans, LA930-28.5%-41.7%
New York, NY7,033-21.0%25.9%
Newark, NJ2,278-20.3%-21.9%
North Port, FL2,091-3.8%-11.2%
Oakland, CA2,941-6.3%2.2%
Oklahoma City, OK2,250-11.6%-6.2%
Omaha, NE1,347-6.5%-6.5%
Orlando, FL4,613-4.6%7.8%
Oxnard, CA8760.1%-7.2%
Philadelphia, PA2,452-7.4%-6.2%
Phoenix, AZ8,8592.9%-1.8%
Pittsburgh, PA2,604-9.1%-9.4%
Portland, OR4,057-4.4%-5.7%
Providence, RI2,2121.4%-2.8%
Raleigh, NC2,401-13.2%-11.6%
Richmond, VA1,982-11.7%6.6%
Riverside, CA5,811-0.5%-4.6%
Rochester, NY1,195-13.8%-14.3%
Sacramento, CA2,954-6.6%-17.8%
Salt Lake City, UT1,515-9.9%-23.3%
San Antonio, TX3,257-8.2%-7.3%
San Diego, CA3,592-3.6%-6.7%
San Francisco, CA1,223-4.6%8.0%
San Jose, CA1,709-3.0%14.7%
Seattle, WA5,312-3.2%-1.1%
St. Louis, MO4,332-6.1%-1.3%
Tacoma, WA1,756-2.1%3.9%
Tampa, FL6,442-3.0%3.3%
Tucson, AZ1,483-3.7%-8.7%
Tulsa, OK1,610-2.6%4.1%
Honolulu, HI1,020-4.1%23.6%
Virginia Beach, VA3,051-7.7%7.7%
Warren, MI4,135-3.5%-12.5%
Washington, D.C.6,963-12.9%-9.1%
West Palm Beach, FL2,811-14.4%-13.2%
Worcester, MA1,231-5.0%3.0%
National613,2001.6%-5.4%

New Listings

Redfin MetroNew ListingsMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-Year
Albany, NY1,118-16.6%-20.9%
Allentown, PA534-35.3%-57.3%
Anaheim, CA2,567-16.1%-27.4%
Atlanta, GA9,548-14.1%-10.4%
Austin, TX3,840-7.3%17.6%
Bakersfield, CA992-6.0%-5.7%
Baltimore, MD4,408-10.4%-8.5%
Baton Rouge, LA440-40.0%-59.0%
Birmingham, AL1,543-14.9%-13.0%
Boston, MA6,47832.2%-4.6%
Bridgeport, CT1,338-5.8%-30.7%
Buffalo, NY1,113-24.7%-22.8%
Camden, NJ1,845-14.7%-15.8%
Charleston, SC1,753-5.3%-2.2%
Charlotte, NC3,143-26.2%-36.0%
Chicago, IL10,927-7.4%-10.1%
Cincinnati, OH3,123-15.0%-7.1%
Cleveland, OH3,287-5.7%-4.2%
Columbus, OH3,305-9.7%1.3%
Dallas, TX6,655-10.0%-2.4%
Dayton, OH1,273-11.5%-7.0%
Denver, CO5,9180.3%0.4%
Detroit, MI2,561-11.5%2.2%
El Paso, TX956-5.7%-1.4%
Elgin, IL1,144-18.1%-7.7%
Fort Lauderdale, FL2,995-12.4%-25.2%
Fort Worth, TX3,415-6.8%1.9%
Frederick, MD1,9692.0%-1.3%
Fresno, CA883-9.2%-6.8%
Grand Rapids, MI1,536-5.9%-4.4%
Greensboro, NC780-24.3%-27.4%
Greenville, SC1,309-9.3%-2.7%
Hartford, CT1,788-6.4%-15.0%
Houston, TX10,080-13.5%3.0%
Indianapolis, IN3,727-7.4%-7.4%
Jacksonville, FL3,131-8.4%5.8%
Kansas City, MO3,464-12.8%-11.5%
Knoxville, TN1,203-17.2%-11.3%
Lake County, IL1,291-15.3%-12.9%
Las Vegas, NV4,416-11.4%-4.4%
Los Angeles, CA6,806-10.8%-18.9%
Louisville, KY1,997-6.6%-0.7%
McAllen, TX503-13.3%-10.5%
Memphis, TN1,260-15.7%-3.7%
Miami, FL3,908-5.9%-2.2%
Milwaukee, WI2,212-9.2%-8.0%
Minneapolis, MN6,586-8.0%-10.4%
Montgomery County, PA2,555-9.0%-13.3%
Nashville, TN3,801-0.7%-5.8%
Nassau County, NY2,986-9.8%-28.8%
New Brunswick, NJ3,491-14.7%-29.2%
New Haven, CT1,168-16.5%-23.1%
New Orleans, LA773-49.1%-49.4%
New York, NY8,7196.6%-22.6%
Newark, NJ2,464-8.4%-27.7%
North Port, FL2,169-8.2%-9.7%
Oakland, CA3,078-4.2%-3.9%
Oklahoma City, OK2,231-16.6%-2.1%
Omaha, NE1,353-0.3%-3.8%
Orlando, FL4,599-10.8%-3.6%
Oxnard, CA806-14.0%-32.4%
Philadelphia, PA2,988-2.2%-10.0%
Phoenix, AZ8,765-10.2%-12.0%
Pittsburgh, PA2,870-11.0%0.5%
Portland, OR4,150-4.0%8.3%
Providence, RI2,292-6.3%-14.3%
Raleigh, NC2,6581.3%-1.6%
Richmond, VA1,890-11.6%-10.7%
Riverside, CA6,307-5.9%-3.8%
Rochester, NY967-20.6%-31.6%
Sacramento, CA3,111-3.4%-12.8%
Salt Lake City, UT879-40.0%-51.3%
San Antonio, TX3,401-15.2%1.3%
San Diego, CA3,204-11.9%-14.4%
San Francisco, CA1,33515.4%-29.4%
San Jose, CA1,550-9.1%-11.4%
Seattle, WA5,3550.4%-6.3%
St. Louis, MO2,345-37.0%-49.0%
Tacoma, WA1,734-5.7%9.1%
Tampa, FL6,535-6.1%3.2%
Tucson, AZ1,7191.5%-6.8%
Tulsa, OK1,540-17.0%-2.4%
Honolulu, HI907-8.0%3.7%
Virginia Beach, VA2,812-15.5%-0.8%
Warren, MI4,417-14.0%-2.9%
Washington, D.C.7,7810.9%-8.0%
West Palm Beach, FL3,173-0.5%-16.1%
Worcester, MA1,3990.4%-5.7%
National631,800-2.3%-9.0%

All Homes for Sale

Redfin MetroAll Homes for SaleMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-Year
Albany, NY3,174-7.8%-13.6%
Allentown, PA1,642-21.7%-37.7%
Anaheim, CA6,550-12.9%-35.8%
Atlanta, GA21,830-9.4%-25.2%
Austin, TX9,426-3.5%3.3%
Bakersfield, CA2,249-2.7%-8.1%
Baltimore, MD10,451-6.3%-7.1%
Baton Rouge, LA1,828-21.1%-52.6%
Birmingham, AL4,567-8.8%-21.0%
Boston, MA12,6797.5%-15.1%
Bridgeport, CT5,194-7.4%-28.5%
Buffalo, NY2,394-15.6%-21.7%
Camden, NJ4,918-8.9%-9.4%
Charleston, SC5,308-1.0%-22.8%
Charlotte, NC9,350-14.8%-36.0%
Chicago, IL31,391-4.1%-10.2%
Cincinnati, OH9,198-4.4%-5.2%
Cleveland, OH8,411-4.9%-6.7%
Columbus, OH8,690-5.3%0.3%
Dallas, TX15,451-8.6%-23.4%
Dayton, OH3,028-3.9%-4.9%
Denver, CO9,919-4.4%-14.2%
Detroit, MI6,3910.3%-1.4%
El Paso, TX2,414-7.8%-24.5%
Elgin, IL2,511-10.5%-15.5%
Fort Lauderdale, FL10,676-7.8%-35.4%
Fort Worth, TX7,741-6.9%-17.4%
Frederick, MD4,380-2.7%-2.1%
Fresno, CA1,795-4.3%-4.0%
Grand Rapids, MI2,744-4.7%-14.2%
Greensboro, NC2,081-13.4%-32.6%
Greenville, SC3,886-4.4%-19.8%
Hartford, CT5,153-5.3%-20.1%
Houston, TX27,563-5.7%-10.2%
Indianapolis, IN6,603-7.8%-17.0%
Jacksonville, FL7,444-6.1%-18.8%
Kansas City, MO8,063-7.7%-7.5%
Knoxville, TN4,084-5.3%-13.6%
Lake County, IL3,664-10.3%-17.3%
Las Vegas, NV10,634-4.2%-22.3%
Los Angeles, CA19,577-7.7%-20.5%
Louisville, KY4,468-2.4%-9.7%
McAllen, TX1,719-6.0%-19.4%
Memphis, TN3,235-10.2%-7.4%
Miami, FL15,347-4.0%-21.8%
Milwaukee, WI7,353-4.8%-1.5%
Minneapolis, MN14,368-3.7%-10.3%
Montgomery County, PA6,213-7.7%-15.6%
Nashville, TN8,502-0.8%-28.6%
Nassau County, NY9,782-5.3%-25.6%
New Brunswick, NJ10,510-5.0%-21.4%
New Haven, CT3,946-6.6%-18.9%
New Orleans, LA3,530-18.5%-25.1%
New York, NY37,536-2.0%-21.5%
Newark, NJ8,179-3.3%-18.3%
North Port, FL4,037-4.7%-42.6%
Oakland, CA5,742-4.3%-3.7%
Oklahoma City, OK5,040-7.2%-9.8%
Omaha, NE2,438-3.2%-10.6%
Orlando, FL9,513-6.8%-28.3%
Oxnard, CA2,134-6.6%-26.3%
Philadelphia, PA9,096-2.2%-6.7%
Phoenix, AZ19,636-5.8%-15.4%
Pittsburgh, PA10,328-3.3%-5.9%
Portland, OR7,948-4.1%-8.0%
Providence, RI5,668-3.7%-13.3%
Raleigh, NC5,733-3.1%-30.0%
Richmond, VA3,710-8.8%-12.5%
Riverside, CA15,342-3.1%-11.1%
Rochester, NY1,594-26.4%-46.9%
Sacramento, CA6,141-4.6%-11.9%
Salt Lake City, UT2,084-25.9%-50.3%
San Antonio, TX8,494-8.1%-16.3%
San Diego, CA6,546-11.8%-21.6%
San Francisco, CA2,9710.2%-38.0%
San Jose, CA3,057-10.4%-22.6%
Seattle, WA8,616-5.1%-21.2%
St. Louis, MO7,395-21.2%-36.4%
Tacoma, WA2,953-5.8%2.6%
Tampa, FL12,173-6.6%-20.3%
Tucson, AZ4,4231.0%-12.6%
Tulsa, OK3,327-8.0%-12.2%
Honolulu, HI3,133-6.7%-21.0%
Virginia Beach, VA6,764-10.7%-1.4%
Warren, MI10,282-4.9%-7.9%
Washington, D.C.18,884-3.2%-0.1%
West Palm Beach, FL9,665-4.2%-38.8%
Worcester, MA2,9890.2%-6.6%
National1,384,200-2.0%-19.0%

Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate

Redfin MetroEstimateMonth-Over-MonthYear-Over-Year
Albany, NY$232,7001.8%13.8%
Allentown, PA$263,7005.5%19.8%
Anaheim, CA$919,3004.7%22.2%
Atlanta, GA$301,6005.8%25.2%
Austin, TX$463,30010.5%48.9%
Bakersfield, CA$248,7007.5%21.2%
Baltimore, MD$326,5003.9%16.6%
Baton Rouge, LA$145,400-1.8%9.8%
Birmingham, AL$162,4002.8%16.0%
Boston, MA$616,9002.1%13.4%
Bridgeport, CT$462,6004.8%16.9%
Buffalo, NY$187,5004.5%19.0%
Camden, NJ$267,0006.1%23.9%
Charleston, SC$296,8005.2%20.7%
Charlotte, NC$282,7006.3%28.7%
Chicago, IL$284,300-2.5%6.0%
Cincinnati, OH$207,0005.7%20.2%
Cleveland, OH$173,3004.2%17.4%
Columbus, OH$244,9005.5%17.9%
Dallas, TX$332,4007.5%25.6%
Dayton, OH$158,5006.4%21.4%
Denver, CO$524,2007.0%22.1%
Detroit, MI$128,9003.4%19.7%
Elgin, IL$258,500-1.7%9.3%
Fort Lauderdale, FL$329,1004.3%17.0%
Fort Worth, TX$281,9007.2%23.9%
Frederick, MD$493,5003.6%15.9%
Fresno, CA$341,1007.2%25.6%
Grand Rapids, MI$237,6009.7%32.0%
Greensboro, NC$176,8005.1%23.0%
Greenville, SC$201,9006.0%21.2%
Hartford, CT$269,5007.6%18.1%
Houston, TX$248,7006.0%21.2%
Indianapolis, IN$209,8006.7%21.6%
Jacksonville, FL$275,0006.6%25.4%
Kansas City, MO$233,1007.6%22.5%
Knoxville, TN$232,0005.4%24.5%
Lake County, IL$246,800-0.2%9.8%
Las Vegas, NV$362,8005.7%24.3%
Los Angeles, CA$801,5005.0%20.5%
Louisville, KY$195,100-0.9%6.1%
Memphis, TN$184,9003.1%19.2%
Miami, FL$382,7005.6%18.7%
Milwaukee, WI$252,6005.5%16.5%
Minneapolis, MN$328,8005.2%16.0%
Montgomery County, PA$396,0004.8%18.0%
Nashville, TN$354,1007.5%23.3%
Nassau County, NY$581,2003.6%16.1%
New Brunswick, NJ$431,1005.3%21.0%
New Haven, CT$277,6007.7%21.9%
New Orleans, LA$195,700-0.5%10.8%
Newark, NJ$439,3001.9%16.1%
North Port, FL$312,7008.6%28.5%
Oakland, CA$1,002,7005.5%25.1%
Oklahoma City, OK$177,0005.7%16.8%
Omaha, NE$231,2003.6%17.1%
Orlando, FL$296,2007.5%22.2%
Oxnard, CA$754,7005.7%22.2%
Philadelphia, PA$230,8001.5%15.1%
Phoenix, AZ$396,90011.8%39.3%
Pittsburgh, PA$158,7003.2%12.8%
Portland, OR$499,4005.9%20.9%
Providence, RI$371,3004.8%20.7%
Raleigh, NC$336,9008.8%26.1%
Richmond, VA$279,6002.4%13.7%
Riverside, CA$452,6007.2%31.1%
Rochester, NY$176,5004.7%17.0%
Sacramento, CA$549,5008.0%28.3%
Salt Lake City, UT$500,40011.7%34.6%
San Antonio, TX$231,4006.9%21.5%
San Diego, CA$795,5005.4%26.1%
San Francisco, CA$1,531,9003.7%11.3%
San Jose, CA$1,436,4005.1%21.8%
Seattle, WA$724,8005.1%23.1%
St. Louis, MO$181,9005.3%10.5%
Tacoma, WA$490,2006.5%27.1%
Tampa, FL$282,4008.1%23.1%
Tucson, AZ$270,5004.8%26.6%
Tulsa, OK$155,5002.6%12.8%
Honolulu, HI$819,9003.0%16.4%
Virginia Beach, VA$273,3003.0%13.2%
Warren, MI$257,1004.2%17.0%
Washington, D.C.$476,6003.5%15.4%
West Palm Beach, FL$344,6005.8%21.4%
Worcester, MA$350,9004.9%19.9%
National$381,9007.3%19.9%

read more…

redfin.com/news/

China’s real estate market struggles | Armonk Real Estate

China’s housing market slump has intensified in recent weeks as sales plunge and more developers default on their debt. Now the downturn has reached another milestone: home prices have begun falling for the first time in six years.

The 0.08% drop in new-home prices across 70 cities in September may be small, but it poses a potentially big blow for an economy that counts on property-related industries for almost a quarter of output.

Homebuyer sentiment is evaporating as a crisis at China Evergrande Group ripples through the industry. With prospective buyers already wondering whether cash-strapped builders can deliver their apartments, the risk is that they stay away in droves on fears that real estate is no longer a safe bet.

“Now the priority is to prevent a state of panic,” said Yan Yuejin, research director at Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institute. “The home market has clearly entered a downward cycle.”

Developers are struggling with regulatory tightening that has helped to choke off fresh financing and made it harder to pay bills. Evergrande alone owes more than $300 billion, and has yet to finish homes for 1.6 million buyers who put down deposits.

The drop in confidence has affected people like Carl, a property investment consultant in eastern Hangzhou. He says the number of prospective clients tumbled around 90% last month from the second quarter.

“Business is so light,” Carl said, asking not to give his full name while talking about government policy. One customer “became less and less interested each time we called him, and later on he wouldn’t even pick up our calls.”

The real estate downturn is already hurting China’s economy, which is also being dragged down by power shortages. Economic growth slowed in the third quarter as the property and construction industries contracted for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

Peak Season

September is traditionally a peak season for the home market. Yet residential sales tumbled 17%, investments slid for the first time since early 2020, and the rate of failed land auctions climbed to the highest since at least 2018 — potentially hurting local government coffers.

Smaller cities, where the economy is weaker, were hit the most by last month’s price declines. Existing-home values slid 0.21% in 35 so-called tier-3 cities, the most since early 2015, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Wednesday.

About three-quarters of cities saw second-hand home values fall from a month earlier. A price war is set to intensify in the coming months as landlords in wait-and-see mode surrender to the cooling trend, Yan said.

The downturn has continued into this month. Existing-home sales plunged 63% from a year earlier in the first 17 days of October, according to a Nomura Holdings Inc. note Monday.

“The effects of developers’ price discounts are waning,” Yang Kewei, a research director at China Real Estate Information Corp., said before the figures were released.

A Bloomberg index of China developer stocks fell 0.5% on Wednesday, taking its decline to 24% this year.

Fears of contagion from the crisis at Evergrande are brewing. Sinic Holdings Group Co. became the latest Chinese real estate firm to default as investors wait to see whether Evergrande will meet overdue interest payments on dollar bonds this week.

Yields on Chinese high-yield dollar bonds, which are dominated by builders, have climbed to their highest in about a decade, hurting a key funding channel for the sector.

That will have a knock-on effect on the broader economy, since Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates the property sector and related industries make up about 23% of gross domestic product.

Faster Mortgages

So far, authorities are largely resisting the urge to ease up on the industry. Regulators have told banks to speed up mortgage lending again, Bloomberg reported last week, but the central bank signaled on Friday it would keep monetary policy broadly unchanged in the near term.

Moves in the property and financial markets are a “stress reaction” to some defaults, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng said Wednesday at a Beijing conference, China Business News reported. Property sector financing and costs have gradually been normalizing, Pan was quoted as saying.

There are “individual problems” in the real estate market, but the risks are controllable overall, Vice Premier Liu He said at the same event, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Reasonable funding needs in the sector are being met, Liu was quoted as saying.

Some analysts expect the current real estate slump to be less harsh than previous ones because inventories remain relatively small. Developers have been more rational about building projects in coastal cities where demand is higher, said Chen Long, a partner at Beijing-based consultancy Plenum.

“The relatively low stock of unsold housing limits the risk of a major downturn,” Oxford Economics said in a note on Wednesday. “We think the most likely scenario is a contained short-term downturn.”

Still, any recovery will be difficult until home values resume rising.

“If property prices stop growing, we won’t buy,” said Jack, a tech worker in Shenzhen who didn’t want to be identified by his surname for fear of reprisals from his company. “Right now, I’ll sit and watch.”

read more…

bloomberg.com

Mortgage lenders loosened credit standards | Chappaqua Real Estate

Numbers are consistent with an uptick in mortgage rates and a downturn in applications.

Mortgage credit availability increased by 1.4% in May – a sign that volume-hungry lenders continued to loosen credit standards in a highly competitive market, according to Thursday data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) which uses 100 as a benchmark — increased to 129.9 in May. A decline in the MCAI suggests that lending standards are tightening while a higher number suggests loosening credit standards.

Lenders concerned over borrowers’ ability to pay their bills at the beginning of the economic shutdown resulted in an exponential tightening of credit. However, May’s credit availability inched to its highest level since the early days of the pandemic, but remained at 2014 levels.

The MCAI on conventional loans increased 3.5%, while MCAI on government loans increased by 0.3%. Of the two component indices of the conventional MCAI, the jumbo MCAI increased by 5.1%, and the conforming MCAI rose by 1.6%, the MBA said.

MCAI-May

“The overall increases were driven by a 3% gain in the conventional segment of the market, with a rise in the supply of ARMs and cash-out refinances,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

Borrowers are “stuck in the middle” between the agencies’ minimum FICO requirements and the “FICO gates” imposed by lenders’ credit overlays. We have the tools to help them, we just need to use them. 

According to Kan, this is consistent with the uptick in mortgage rates and a slowing refinance market, as well as MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey data showing increased interest in ARMs. Monday data from the MBA revealed mortgage applications dropped for the third consecutive week.

Compared to last year, fewer people are applying for purchase mortgages – a likely result of home prices continuing to rise and prospective buyers avoiding astronomical bidding wars.

However, housing demand is still far outpacing supply, Kan said. The average loan size on a purchase application edged down to $407,000, below the record $418,000 set in February — but still far above 2020’s average of $353,900, the MBA reported.

“The jumbo index also jumped 5% last month, but even with increases over the past two months, the index is still around half of where it was in February 2020,” Kan said. “A rapidly improving economy and job market has freed up jumbo credit, as banks have deposits to utilize. However, there is still plenty of restraint, as many sectors have not fully returned to pre-pandemic capacity, and there are around 2 million borrowers still in forbearance.”

At this time last year, the Jumbo loan index was 54% lower than it had been in February 2020. Securing a jumbo loan was the most difficult it had been in four years, according to MBA data. But a flourishing housing market gave way to jumbos from a host of lenders, including Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale Mortgage.

read more…

housingwire.com/articles/

How Lumber Prices are Hammering Housing Affordability for Home Owners | Armonk Real Estate

Skyrocketing lumber prices and supply-chain challenges continue to slow home construction, even amid higher demand. Both new home sales and existing home sales have cooled as prospective buyers are priced out of the market.

As appraisals struggle to reflect these ever-rising costs, home owners and builders continue to look for opportunities to minimize the impact these prices are having on the overall cost of the home. But as they strategize, prices are only getting worse.

“I am trying to build my own home — we are general contractors — and the price of lumber has set us back twice,” Michelle Govro from Missouri explains. “My permits are waiting, but in the one month of waiting for permits, the price of our bids in lumber went up substantially.”

“We even redrew house plans and are trying to build a smaller 1,600-square-foot home, and the lumber price is outrageous,” she added.

Others, such as Angela Cross from New York, have been watching the market to try to build their home at a better time only to be met with continued disappointment.

The Cross family began their home-building journey in April 2020, with an initial quote from a contractor in July 2020 once their land had been surveyed. Lumber prices had begun to ramp up, so a final quote was prepared in September 2020. The price of their turnkey home jumped 20% in just those two months.

“That was over our budget at that time,” she notes, “and after discussing it with our contractor, we decided to wait until February 2021, as he was hopeful lumber prices would come down.”

However, lumber prices have continued to rise instead, and what had been a 20% increase in September had become a 38% increase as of April 2021. Like Govro, the Crosses have tried to find every opportunity to cut costs — including reducing the square footage from 1,656 square feet to 1,500 square feet, and exploring alternative construction methods such as modular — as they continue to rent a two-bedroom house with their two daughters. But the costs are still too high.

Even the existing home market isn’t providing any relief.

“The homes are either sold very quickly, or are out of our price range, or need so much work that it is not worth it to us,” she shares. “Especially since we now own our own piece of land and have dreamed of building our home.”

Problem with rising costs and supply chain challenges are only bound to make these issues worse, as they continue to complicate the home building process.

Mark Reifsnyder, a mortgage banker of 22 years in Michigan, observes: “With construction, there is always the likelihood that costs change during the build due to fluctuations in the supply chain in any given year, as well as the customer making costly changes along the way. We plan ahead for that.”

“But when a builder cannot bottom-line a total cost because the costs run out of control due to an endless list of issues, it leads to a lengthier build,” he adds. “The problems just compound themselves.”

Home buyers in the current market need to earmark an additional 20%, beyond their 20% down payment, just to cover ‘what-ifs’ — and in some cases, “that isn’t even enough,” he notes.

“What confuses things even more is one day there is a news story about supply shortages, but the next day there is a story about stocked lumber yards that simply don’t have the manpower to get materials out the door fast enough,” he adds. “Forrest infestations in Canada, resin factories in Texas still offline due to the ice storm five months ago — the lists go on. This only adds to the confusion and frustration for people.”

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nahbnow.com

New home sales rise 66% | Armonk Real Estate

New home sales reversed direction in March, fully recovering from the 18.2 percent nosedive those sales took in February. The Census Bureau said sales of newly constructed homes rose 20.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.021 million units. This is 66.8 percent higher than the sales 612,000 unit pace in March 2020, although that rate was impacted by the pandemic shutdowns and was the highest annual sales rate since 2005.

February’s loss was also smaller than originally reported. Those sales were revised from 775,000 to 846,000 units.

Analysts’ estimates fell far short of the numbers reported. Those polled by Econoday had projected sales in a range of 820,000 to 950,000. The consensus was 887,000.

On a non-adjusted basis there were 97,000 new homes sold during the month, up from 70,000 the previous month. For the year to date sales have totaled 243,000 homes, a 34.4 percent increase over the 181,000 sales in the first three months of 2020.

The median price of a home sold in March was $330,800 and the average price was $397,800. In March 2020, the respective sales prices were $328,200 and $375,400.

At the end of the reporting period there were an estimated 307,000 new homes available for sale, identical to the inventory in February. However, due to the higher rate of sales this was estimated at a 3.6 month supply, down from 4.4 months in February. In March 2020, the supply was over 6 months.

Sales increased by double digits month over month in three of the four major regions but fell by double digits in the West where they were also down on an annual basis. The increase in the Northeast was 20 percent compared to February and 108.7 percent higher than the prior March. Sales in the Midwest rose 30.7 percent and 78.4 percent for the two periods.

The South posted a 40.2 percent gain for the month and 90.1 percent year-over-year. Sales in the West, which also posted poor March numbers for existing home sales, were down 30.0 percent from the prior month and dipped 2.0 percent from the year earlier level.

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04232021_new_home_sales.asp

Mortgage rates average 2.73% | Armonk Real Estate

Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 2.73 percent.

“It’s a tale of two economies. The services economy remains in the doldrums, but the production side of the economy remains strong,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “New COVID-19 cases are receding, which is encouraging and that has led to a rise in Treasury rates. But, the run-up in Treasury rates has not impacted mortgage rates yet, which have held firm.”

Khater continued, “The residential real estate market remains solid given healthy purchase demand while implied real-time home price growth is high, due to the inventory shortage that is plaguing the housing market.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.73 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 11, 2021, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.47 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.19 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.21 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.97 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.79 percent with an average 0.2 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.78 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.28 percent.