Daily Archives: March 27, 2014

Pending home sales decline again, is weather to blame? | Bedford Hills Real Estate

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Harsh winter conditions have largely taken the blame for the recent stagnation in the housing market nationwide, but experts say the genesis of downturn goes all the way back to the warm months of 2013.

The National Association of Realtors released February’s pending home sales numbers this week, revealing an eighth consecutive month of decline in the market.

The South and Northeast saw the biggest decreases, offsetting gains in the West and Midwest.

The pending home sales index dipped 0.8 percent to 93.9, down from 94.7 in January and down 10.5 percent from February 2013.

While harsh weather may not have been the originator of the downturn, it may have stalled the stabilization that seems to be taking hold along with the warmer weather.

“Contract signings for the past three months have been little changed, implying the market appears to be stabilizing,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Moreover, buyer traffic information from our monthly Realtor survey shows a modest turnaround, and some weather delayed transactions should close this spring.”

 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/blog/2014/03/pending-home-sales-warming-up.html

Distressed sales down, investor activity wanes | South Salem Real Estate

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Residential properties sold at an estimated annual pace of 5,083,241 in February, a 0.2% decline from January but up 7% from February 2013, according to the latest report from RealtyTrac.

February marked the fourth consecutive month where sales activity has fell on a monthly basis. This includes single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes.

There were monthly declines in 31 states, and year-over-year declines in six – including Massachusetts, California, Arizona and Nevada. Twenty-one of the nation’s largest 50 metropolitan areas likewise suffered sales volume declines, including Phoenix, Orlando, Las Vegas and Detroit, among others.

“Supply and demand have reached a bit of a standoff in this uneven real estate recovery,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “The supply of distressed properties — which buyers and investors have come to rely on over the past few years — is evaporating quickly in most markets, but that dwindling supply is not being adequately replenished by non-distressed homeowners listing their homes or by new homes being built.”

Blomquist noted that some of the volume decline is from institutional investors, a primary driver over the past two years. Investor activity has declined in the last several months.

“It’s not yet clear if that diminishing demand will be filled by first-time homebuyers and move-up buyers,” he said.

 

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29449-why-did-residential-sales-decline-for-fourth-month-straight

 

Mortgage rates tick up after slight decline | Waccabuc Real Estate

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Average fixed mortgage rates were up a bit from last week, applying additional pressure for those local markets that are already feeling an affordability pinch, according to Freddie Mac. This follows last week’s slight downtick.

“Mortgage rates rose following the uptick on the 10-year Treasury note after comments by the Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen indicated a possible increase in interest rates as soon as early 2015,” said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft. “Also, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite house price index rose 13.2% over the 12-months ending in January 2014.”

Freddie Mac’s new blog noted this week: “One thing seems certain: we aren’t likely to see average 30-year fixed mortgage rates return to the historic lows experienced in 2012. The all-time record low – since Freddie Mac began tracking mortgage rates in 1971 – was 3.31% in November 2012. Conversely, the all-time record high occurred in October of 1981, hitting 18.63%. That’s more than four times higher than today’s average 30-year fixed rate of 4.32% as of March 20.”

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.4% with an average 0.6 point for the week ending March 27, 2014, up from last week when it averaged 4.32%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.57%.

The 15-year FRM averaged 3.42% with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.32%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.76%.

 

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29458-mortgage-rates-tick-up-after-slight-decline

Pending home sales down 10.5% from February 2013 | Cross River Real Estate

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Pending home sales fell for the eighth straight month, down 0.8% from the downwardly revised January report and down 10.5% from February 2013, according to the index from the National Association of Realtors.

NAR’s pending sales index is an indicator of closings that usually happen within three months.

“Contract signings for the past three months have been little changed, implying the market appears to be stabilizing,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. “Moreover, buyer traffic information from our monthly Realtor survey shows a modest turnaround, and some weather delayed transactions should close in the spring.”

Existing home sales have been down since September 2013, with buyers facing the challenges of an increasing affordability gap as investors have driven up prices and lending requirements have tightened.

“Upon first glance, it may seem high that a quarter of all ZipRealty home sales closed without financing in 2012 and 2013,” said ZipRealty CEO and president Lanny Baker. “But based on our own internal analysis and data from the National Association of Realtors, the percentage of all-cash real estate transactions may actually be moderating. Nationwide, the percentage of all-cash real estate transactions reached a five-year high in 2010 at 27%, and the percentage of all-cash property sales has slowly declined or flattened every subsequent year.”

All-cash transactions accounted for 20% of the residential real estate market in 2009, and 25.6% of the market in 2011, NAR reports.

According to ZipRealty’s analysis, in 2013 26% of all the real estate transactions closed by ZipRealty agents were purchased with cash, while 25% of the homes purchased through ZipRealty agents were acquired with cash.

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29460-pending-home-sales-down-105-from-february-2013

 

Fixed Mortgage Rates Move Up | Katonah Real Estate

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Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates up a bit from last week, applying additional pressure for those local markets that are already feeling an affordability pinch.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.40 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending March 27, 2014, up from last week when it averaged 4.32 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.57 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.42 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.32 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.76 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.10 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.02 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.68 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.44 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.49 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.62 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quotes Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates rose following the uptick on the 10-year Treasury note after comments by the Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen indicated a possible increase in interest rates as soon as early 2015. Also, the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city composite house price index rose 13.2 percent over the 12-months ending in January 2014.”

Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation’s residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing.

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence and Home Price Data Nod to Stronger Growth | Bedford Hills Real Estate

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American consumer confidence surged to a six-year high in March and house prices rose solidly in January, positioning the economy for stronger growth after a soft spot attributed to bad winter weather.

The upbeat outlook, however, was dimmed somewhat by other data on Tuesday showing new-home sales at a five-month low in February, partly because of the cold weather.

“The economy is showing signs of shaking off the weather effect. We are going to get a big lift to second-quarter growth from the weather,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pa.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 82.3, from 78.3 in February. That is the highest level since January 2008, just as recession started to take hold, and it beat economists’ expectations for a reading of 78.6.

The jump in confidence bodes well for the economy, even though consumers were less upbeat about the labor market.

An unusually cold and snowy winter has held back the economy, disrupting activity that includes hiring, spending and manufacturing. Growth in the first quarter is expected to have slowed considerably from the fourth quarter’s annualized 2.4 percent pace.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/business/confidence-and-home-price-data-point-to-stronger-growth.html?_r=0

Bullish consumers, rising home prices brighten U.S. growth picture | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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U.S. consumer confidence surged to a six-year high in March and house prices increased solidly in January, positioning the economy for stronger growth after a weather-induced soft spot.

The upbeat outlook, however, was dimmed somewhat by other data on Tuesday showing new home sales at a five-month low in February, partly because of cold temperatures.

“The economy is showing signs of shaking off the weather effect. We are going to get a big lift to second-quarter growth from the weather,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 82.3 from 78.3 in February. That is the highest level since January 2008, just as recession started to take hold, and it beat economists’ expectations for a reading of only 78.6.

The jump in confidence bodes well for the economy’s prospects, even though consumers were less upbeat about the labor market.

U.S. stocks and the dollar rose in response to the confidence report.

An unusually cold and snowy winter has held back the economy, disrupting activity ranging from hiring to spending and manufacturing. Growth in the first quarter is expected to have slowed considerably from the fourth-quarter’s annualized 2.4 percent pace.

Separately, the S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 0.8 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis. It followed a similar increase in December. Prices rose 13.2 percent from a year ago.

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/25/us-usa-economy-idUSBREA2O10I20140325

Area’s home prices up 9 percent | Bedford Corners Real Estate

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Greater Boston housing prices rose solidly in January, continuing the trend of steadily increasing home values, according to a closely watched index that measures the nation’s housing markets.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported Tuesday that Boston-area home prices rose 9 percent in January from a year earlier. Nationally, home prices rose 13 percent during the same period.

“Expectations and recent data point to continued home price gains for 2014,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “Although most analysts do not expect the same rapid increases we saw last year, the consensus is for moderating gains.”

Greater Boston prices rose about 10 percent in 2013, according to the Case-Shiller indices. Data reported by other groups have also shown steady increases.

A shortage of homes on the market, coupled with strong demand, has contributed to rising  prices in Massachusetts, industry officials and analysts say.

On Tuesday, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported that even though home prices declined last month, the median price of a single-family home rose to $294,950, up 7.3 percent from February 2013. The median condo price rose 9.1 percent to $283,000.

 

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/03/25/home-prices-rise-inventory-shrinks/XhWaLlpma2mlPn9j1qUZXO/story.html

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose 13.2% in Year to January | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

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Residential real-estate prices climbed at a slower pace in the year through January than a month earlier, indicating momentum in the housing market may be cooling.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 13.2 percent from January 2013, the smallest gain since August, after rising 13.4 percent in the 12 months through December, the group said today in New York. The median projection of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 13.3 percent advance. Compared with the prior month, prices rose 0.8 percent.

Price appreciation on a year-over-year basis has eased in recent months as higher mortgage rates and unusually severe winter weather slowed demand for properties. Smaller increases in asking prices will help improve affordability, providing support for the residential real-estate market, which has been a source of strength for the economy.

“Prices are rising, even though we should see those gains moderating,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc., who correctly forecast the year-over-year gain. “You’re still talking about double-digit percentage increases, which aren’t going to be sustainable over the long term.”

Estimates (SPCS20Y%) in the Bloomberg survey ranged from year-over-year gains of 11.2 percent to 13.8 percent. The Case-Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the January figure was also influenced by transactions in December and November.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-25/home-prices-in-20-u-dot-s-dot-cities-rose-13-dot-2-percent-in-year-to-january

Housing Prices: Up Or Down? How To Understand Today’s Case-Shiller Data | Armonk Real Estate

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Today S&P/Case-Shiller released its monthly housing data report, the leading measure of home prices across the nation. Immediately, reporters posted dozens of stories about January’s numbers–with oddly contradictory headlines.

“US home prices rise in January: S&P/Case-Shiller”, Reuters proclaimed. “Home prices decline for third month in January,” the Wall Street Journal‘s MarketWatch blog wrote. “Case-Shiller sees housing market cooling ever so slightly,” the Los Angeles Times proclaimed.

Which is it? Well, depending which numbers you look at, the answer is both–and all three. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices track home prices across the nation, looking at the data a number of ways. The driver behind the conflicting headlines is whether the reporter is using non-seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw data from that month) or seasonally adjusted (with seasonal peaks and valleys smoothed out).

It turns out that in January, housing prices (not seasonally adjusted) across 20 major American metros collectively dipped by one tenth of 1% compared to the prior month. In both December and November, that was also true: home prices dipped by 0.1% compared to the prior months then as well. Time for hand-wringing.

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2014/03/25/housing-prices-up-or-down-how-to-understand-todays-case-shiller-data/