Today S&P/Case-Shiller released its monthly housing data report, the leading measure of home prices across the nation. Immediately, reporters posted dozens of stories about January’s numbers–with oddly contradictory headlines.
“US home prices rise in January: S&P/Case-Shiller”, Reuters proclaimed. “Home prices decline for third month in January,” the Wall Street Journal‘s MarketWatch blog wrote. “Case-Shiller sees housing market cooling ever so slightly,” the Los Angeles Times proclaimed.
Which is it? Well, depending which numbers you look at, the answer is both–and all three. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices track home prices across the nation, looking at the data a number of ways. The driver behind the conflicting headlines is whether the reporter is using non-seasonally adjusted numbers (the raw data from that month) or seasonally adjusted (with seasonal peaks and valleys smoothed out).
It turns out that in January, housing prices (not seasonally adjusted) across 20 major American metros collectively dipped by one tenth of 1% compared to the prior month. In both December and November, that was also true: home prices dipped by 0.1% compared to the prior months then as well. Time for hand-wringing.