Daily Archives: February 6, 2013

Postmaster Delivers His Challenge to Congress | Armonk Realtor

Sometimes to get the attention of Congress, you need to hit it right in the constituents. And that’s what the U.S. Postal Service did today in announcing it would stop mail delivery on Saturdays.

Starting in August, the plan is, customers will continue to get packages and priority mail at home on Saturdays, and post offices will stay open, but no letters will go out. Postmaster General Patrick R. Donahoe says it will save $2 billion a year and allow the elimination of 22,000 jobs.

Enlarge image U.S. Postal Service

U.S. Postal Service

U.S. Postal Service

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

A U.S. Postal Service letter carrier during his delivery route in San Francisco.

A U.S. Postal Service letter carrier during his delivery route in San Francisco. Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Most Americans will likely be just fine with waiting till Monday for their letters from loved ones. But Congress is under the sway of those who won’t: A tepid reform bill passed by the Senate (but not the House) last year would have put off a Saturday change for two years. Unfortunately, Congress would need to sign off on a change of this scale.

Still, it’s good to see Donahoe take on the postal-workers unions, which wrongly blame pension-funding requirements for all the service’s ills, and Congress, whose efforts to micromanage change have ended up tying his hands. But the Saturday switch needs to be part of a much larger overhaul at Ben Franklin’s old shop.

The USPS announced an annual loss of $15.9 billion in November, defaulted on billions in retiree health benefits and hit the cap on its ability to borrow from taxpayers. This is mainly because, in the age of e-mail, volume has cratered by 30 percent in a decade, particularly in first-class mail, traditionally the cash cow. (What the Internet taketh away it also giveth: The USPS says package delivery has increased by 14 percent since 2010, thanks in no small part to e-commerce.)

The service also struggles with a mandate to set aside $5.5 billion in pre-funding for retiree health benefits each year, something the unions are quick to point out isn’t required of other government agencies or businesses. True, but the USPS isn’t either an agency or a business — with its private structure, quasi-federal employees (who are not required to pay into the civil service retirement system), monopoly on letter delivery and ability to borrow from Congress, it is a unique hybrid with peculiar rights and responsibilities. In any case, Congress and the service can negotiate a fix to the pre-funding problem — as they did in the Senate bill last year — but that won’t end the crisis.

Getting into the black will require far more radical measures, including closing thousands of distribution centers and less-used post offices (or merging them with convenience markets and coffee bars), trimming the workforce by at least 100,000 jobs, having workers contribute more toward their health benefits and ending no-layoff-clause contracts.

Today’s announcement shows that Donahoe is willing to buck Congress. But we’ll have to wait on his comprehensive reform plan — due in a month — to see if he can deliver a real turnaround plan. The alternative, as my colleague Peter Orszag has pointed out, is true privatization.

(Tobin Harshaw writes editorials for Bloomberg View. Follow him on Twitter.)

Don’t Let Your Brain Destroy Your Blog Business | Cross River Realtor

 

The U.S. General Accounting Office has estimated that purchases of equipment by the military that feature new technology are delivered on time and on budget just 1% of the time.1

The worldwide scientific community has agreed unanimously that human activity on planet Earth is responsible for climate change, yet more than half of the people in the U.S. remain incredulous.

In 1964, the front page of The New York Times declared the detection of the afterglow of the big bang, finally settling the question of how the universe came to be.  Or so you’d think.  Even thirty years later, proponents of the “steady state” theory—the idea that the universe has always been around and didn’t start with a big bang—still believed in iterated versions of the steady state theory rather than the big bang.2

In the UK, half of the population believes in heaven, but only a quarter believes in hell.

The common thread that links each of these facts is this:

People reject evidence where it doesn’t support what they already believe to be true.

Your brain, the painter

Your brain is pretty clever.  It doesn’t know everything and it knows that it doesn’t know everything, so it’s become incredibly efficient at painting a picture of yourself and the world that’s based on limited, incomplete and inaccurate data.

It does this without you even knowing what it’s up to, presenting your conscious mind with a complete picture of “how things are” and “who you are” that’s been composited together from different visual cues, memories, and emotions, then Photoshopped to add sunshine and a lens flare.

This mechanism helps you select, filter and even create evidence to support your own beliefs.  It also inflates your own competence and feeds the belief that you’re in control and “right.”

Social psychologists call this motivated reasoning, and recent research using FMRI brain scans shows that when you make a logical, objective assessment of what’s in front of you, it is in fact anything but logical and objective.

When attempting to objectively process data that’s emotionally relevant (such as starting a business, creating a service or marketing yourself), your limbic system lights up and your brain automatically weaves in the things you want, dream, admire, crave, and desire.

When information enters your brain that favours those things you mark it with an A. “Looking good,” you say, patting yourself on the back.

And when information enters your brain that doesn’t favour the way you want to see yourself and the world, you mark it down to a D-.  ”I’m not going to listen to that nonsense,” you say, congratulating yourself for being smart enough not to be duped.

Your choices are not so much based on fact and logic as they are centred on who think you are and what you really want.

Who’s calling the shots?

This automatic deception is normally one step ahead of you, having you do things you wouldn’t do if you knew the real cost.

It’s an in-built defence mechanism that purges the uncomfortable, painful or contradictory information that threatens your core beliefs, even if those same beliefs aren’t serving you well (such as a belief that you’re not good enough, not up to scratch or less than others, for example).

It can have you making a decision about your business based on your desire to fit in.

It can have you wasting your energy on something that your brain tells you will get you lifestyle you think you want, even if you don’t really want it.

It can have you investing time and money in a new project to gain the validation your brain craves.

Letting your brain automatically call the shots is what might ultimately kill your business.

The antidotes

Luckily, there are two antidotes to the unconscious biases created by motivated reasoning.

1. Rampant curiosity

It’s hard for assumptions about yourself and your business to remain unchallenged when you’re asking the right questions.

Ask questions about what’s fun, resonant, playful, daring, meaningful, silly, and important, and be willing to explore your own undiscovered country.

2. Deliberate awareness

Asking questions can open doors that give you valuable insights, but you can only step through those doors and hear those insights when you foster a deliberate awareness and ‘fess up to what you find.

So, notice.

Notice how you’re feeling when you’re making choices.  Notice the thoughts in your head related to your circumstances, business offering, and value.  Notice the thoughts you have about how you feel about what you’re doing.

Motivated reasoning will always have you dancing to the same ol’ tune; well-worn steps that hide the truth, constrain your growth, and ultimately limit your business.

So don’t let your brain make decisions on your behalf that you wouldn’t make while keenly awake and aware.

Wake up to it. Rampant curiosity.  Deliberate awareness. That’s where your success lies in 2013 and beyond.

References

1. Ross Buehler, Dale Griffin and Michael Ross, “Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions”, in “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgement”, Cambridge University Press, 2002. Cambridge Books Online. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808098.016

2. George Smoot and Keay Davidson, Wrinkles in Time: Witness to the Birth of the Universe (Haper Perennial, 2007) 79-86.

 

 

Help your buyers compromise and close more deals | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Recently I ordered a bowl of black bean soup for lunch. The server returned from the kitchen and said they were out of black bean soup. I told her I would have tomato soup. After she wrote it down, I changed my mind and ordered a Caesar salad.

Did I lie to the server? No. I did what most home buyers do. I compromised.

If your prospective buyers tell you they want a three-bedroom, two-bath resale home, but purchase a new four-bedroom, three-bath residence, did they lie to you?

No, of course not. Seriously — why would any buyer purposely lie about they want to purchase?

Asking prices up in 86 of 100 largest markets | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate

Asking prices of homes listed for sale on real estate portal Trulia.com in January were up from a year ago in 86 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, according to a monthly report released today.

The report, which covers roughly 4.5 million for-sale and for-rent properties listed on Trulia through Jan. 31, showed asking prices up 5.9 percent from a year ago, and growing by a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent from December to January — the biggest month-over-month gain since March 2012. 

In some markets, the strong growth in asking prices doesn’t necessarily indicate that worries are over, said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist.

“In many local markets today, dramatic price gains can mask serious red flags,” Kolko said in a blog post. “Strong job growth, low vacancy rate, and low foreclosure inventory — not huge price gains — are signs of a healthy housing market.”

Trulia identified San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Denver and Salt Lake city as “booming” markets with strong fundamentals.

Buyers need the right ‘parenting style’ for agents | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

Recently, I had a conversation with a first-time buyer, who was trying to think through precisely how to articulate her house-hunt wish list to her agent in a way that was clear on her wants vs. needs. During the course of our talk, I found myself briefing her on an agent’s wants and needs.

“Sure, every agent wants and needs to close your sale and earn a commission,” I told her. “But what they really want even more is, when possible, to be your hero.

“Every reputable agent wants you to be thrilled with your place. They want you to love them and to rave about what they did for you to their friends, for years in the future. So, if they can find someplace that scores on all your requirements and as many as possible of your preferences, chances are good that they will.”

The process of getting to that outcome, the outcome of being highly happy with your agent’s work, requires a number of things, but one that comes to mind is the way buyers interact with agents in terms of being demanding vs. nondemanding, and responsive vs. nonresponsive. These are the same factors psychologists look to when trying to understand which styles of parenting are likely to be successful, in terms of producing children that are competent to achieve their own goals in the world.