“Economic uncertainty is causing mortgage rate volatility,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As a result, purchase demand is waning, and homebuilder sentiment has dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years. Builders are also dealing with rising costs, meaning this posture is likely to continue.”
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.25 percent with an average 0.9 point as of May 19, 2022, down from last week when it averaged 5.30 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.00 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.43 percent with an average 0.9 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.48 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.29 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
The prices of goods used in residential construction ex-energy climbed 1.5% in December (not seasonally adjusted), according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index was driven higher by large price increases for wood products.
Building materials prices increased 15.9% in 2021 and have risen 18.6% since December 2020. Since declining 1.8% between July and August 2021, the index has climbed 4.5%.
The price index of services inputs to residential construction increased 0.4% in December following a five-month period over which the index declined 13.6%. The index is 9.6% higher than it was 12 months prior and 19.6% higher than the January 2020 reading.
The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) increased 24.4% in December and has gained 44.5% since September. According to Random Lengths data, the “mill price” of framing lumber has roughly tripled since late August.
The PPI of most durable goods for a given month is largely based on prices paid for goods shipped, not ordered, in the survey month. This can result in lags relative to cash market prices, suggesting another sizable increase in the softwood lumber producer price index may be in the next PPI report.
Record-high volatility of softwood lumber prices continues to be as problematic as high prices. The monthly change in softwood lumber prices averaged 0.3% between 1947 and 2019. In contrast, the percent change of the index has averaged 12.0% since January 2020—the highest 24-month average since data first became available 1947 and nearly triple the previous record.
Steel mill products prices rose 0.2% in December, the smallest monthly increase since September 2020. Monthly price increases have slowed in each of the past five months.
The last monthly price decrease in steel mill products occurred in August 2020, and the index has climbed 152.2% in the months since–with more than 80% of that increase taking place in 2021.
The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) gained 0.9% in December after increasing 1.1% in November. The index for RMC increased 6.5% between January and December 2021 and is 9.3% higher than the January 2020 level.
At the regional level, prices increased in the South (+1.0%) and West (+1.1%) as prices declined in the Midwest (-0.1%). The price of RMC held steady in the Northeast.
In December, the PPI for gypsum products decreased 0.5%–the second consecutive monthly decline. Gypsum products prices ended the year 18.2% higher than they were in January.
The PPIs for exterior architectural coatings (i.e., paint) increased 1.6% in December while the price of interior paint was unchanged. Neither index has declined since January 2021 and the January-to-December price increases of architectural coatings is unprecedented–exterior and interior paint prices climbed 19.8% and 10.9%, respectively, in 2021.
Other Building Materials
The chart below shows the 12-month and year-to-date price changes of other price indices relevant to the residential construction industry.
Building Materials Wholesaling and Retailing
In contrast to the PPI for building materials retailing—which increased 0.4% in December—the Producer Price Index for building materials wholesaling decreased 1.3% over the month. The wholesale and retail services indices measure changes in the nominal gross margins for goods sold by retailers and wholesalers. Gross profit margins of retailers, in dollar terms, have declined 25.7% since reaching an all-time high in June 2021 but remain 27.3% higher than the January 2020 level.
The category of professional services carries the third most weight among those that make up the service inputs to residential construction PPI. The prices of legal, architectural, and engineering services changed 0.5%, 0.0%, and -0.1%, respectively, in December. Although the year-to-date increase in prices of professional services used in residential construction are quite modest compared to that of materials, prices have increased more in 2021 than they had by December 2020; the difference is especially striking for architectural services.
Though the difference in price changes for legal services is small, the percentage increases are large relative to engineering and architectural. This follows with a trend in recent years. Since December 2018, the price of legal services has risen 13.6%–much more than the three-year increase in architectural (+1.1%) and engineering services (+5.8%).
Metal Treatment Services
Prices of metal treatment services increased 1.2%, on average, in December. The subset of these services used to calculate the services inputs to residential construction includes plating and polishing, coating and allied services, and heat treating.
Metal coating and allied services increased the most over the course of 2021 (+14.9%, NSA). Metal heat treating and plating and polishing services climbed 6.2% and 3.8%, respectively, between January and December. The average monthly price increase of the three services was just 0.1% over the course of 2020.
Median sales prices up at least 9 percent year-over-year
November ended a five-month streak of year-over-year prices increasing by at least 10 percent
The housing market on Long Island has slowed from a year ago in terms of sales volume, but a lack of inventory is likely the culprit.
Home sales on Long Island dropped 16.9 percent year-over-year in November, according to data from OneKey MLS reported by Newsday. Home sales in Nassau County fell 19.2 percent, while Suffolk County sales decreased by 14.9 percent.ADVERTISING
As home sales dropped, so did availability of homes on the market. A 1.9-month supply of homes were for sale in Nassau last month and a 2.1-month supply of homes were available in Suffolk. The counties’ supply numbers in November 2020 were 3.3 months and 2.4 months, respectively.
Low supply could continue to hamper the market for the near future.
“We’ve had low inventory for quite a while now,” OneKey MLS CEO Jim Speer told Newsday. “I would expect it to stay at a pretty low level, hopefully not at this low a level, but I expect we wouldn’t see a great increase in the coming months.”ADVERTISEMENT
While listings are dropping and prices remain high, they aren’t soaring to the heights seen in recent months, a likely relief for homebuyers.
In Nassau, the median sale price was $655,000, a 9.3 percent increase year-over-year. But it was only an 0.8 percent, or $5,000, increase from October. November also ended a five-month streak of year-over-year prices increasing by at least 10 percent, according to Newsday, suggesting a slowing in price growth.ADVERTISEMENT
In Suffolk, the median sale price in November was $520,000, a 10.3 percent increase year-over-year, but only a 0.2 percent gain month-over-month, $1,000 in all.
The median sale prices in both counties are down from the historic highs hit during the summer, when Nassau reached $670,000, while Suffolk hit $531,000. The median pending sale in November for deals that hadn’t closed were for $650,000 and $515,000 in each county, respectively.
“I have definitely seen the market become more realistic,” Keller Williams Realty real estate agent Maria Wilbur told Newsday. “The offers coming in the last month or two have been closer to what the value of the house should be. They’re not so inflated.”
The net effective median rent in Manhattan increased by a whopping 10.1 percent between July and October and 20 percent since January as inflation jumped to the highest level seen since 1990, according to data compiled by Miller Samuel/Douglas Elliman.
In Queens, the third-quarter median asking rent was $2,200 this year, just $100 shy of the pre-pandemic peak set in quarter three of 2019, according to data from StreetEasy.
So far, the median asking rent in Manhattan is up 27 percent this month compared to last year and up 4 percent compared to November 2019, the data show.
In Brooklyn, the median asking rent is up 15 percent so far this month compared to last year and up 5 percent compared to Nov. 2019.
“I wish I had better news on that one, I think a lot of tenants are likely to get sticker shock at their next lease renewal,” Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst at the personal finance website Bankrate.com, told The Post.
“If inflation does eventually moderate and we get back to that 2 percent rate of inflation, then OK, that’s an environment where rents would likely increase at a much more modest, pedestrian pace, but if inflation stays at 4 or 5 percent, that’s going to translate into similar increase in rents year after year.”
New York’s numbers reflect a nationwide trend that’s seen a 0.4 percent increase in housing cost for renters between September and October amid a dwindling supply of listings, high demand and a supply chain bottleneck that’s increased the cost of home building materials, Labor Department data show.
Earlier this year, rents in tech hubs like New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago were declining by 15.8 percent but in September, they jumped by 7.6 percent year over year, according to data from Realtor.
“In New York City, the vacancy rate here is already absurdly low and rents have been steadily rising post pandemic as there is more demand than supply. Additionally, if mortgage rates start to go up and affordability is affected it will force potential buyers to become renters as they are priced out of the market,” Pamela Liebman, the CEO of real estate giant Corcoran, told The Post.
“If mortgage rates rise, that will put additional pressure on an already robust rental market and we could see a serious rise in rent. And as landlords’ costs go up due to inflation, they will continue to pass the increases on to the tenants.”
“The rate of growth in 2021 has been like a rocket ship, but it’s coming from a very low place because rents fell to 25% during the early days of the pandemic and now are rising,” Miller explained.
“If we look at net-effective median rent for all of Manhattan compared to October of 2019, so pre-pandemic but the same seasonal period in the year, median rent is 0.8 percent below 2 years ago. It’s very close to parity.”
Still, with billions in stimulus dollars flowing through the region, expected wage growth and the return of international buyers, demand is only expected to go up and unless the housing supply increases, rent costs are slated to jump even more, too, said Miller.
In 2020, the number of new housing permits decreased by 26.3 percent citywide and in Manhattan, only 1,896 new housing permits were issued last year, down 65.6 percent from 2019 and the lowest level seen since the 2010 Great Recession, city statistics show.
“Rents are going to continue to grow throughout the end of the year and throughout next spring,” said Nancy Wu, an economist with StreetEasy.
“We’re going to see a very busy rentals market [next year] and high demand is going to lead to higher rents, given the supply is pretty constant.”
At the start of the pandemic, New York implemented a moratorium on evictions barring landlords from booting tenants who can show they’re behind on their rents because of COVID-era financial difficulties but the program will end come January 15.
Beyond that, cash-strapped renters can apply for state aid through a federally financed program designed to help lower-income New Yorkers pay their housing costs but that program has a bottom, too.
So far, tenants have filed 252,000 applications, 73,000 of which have been paid out, totaling $913 million in aid.
An additional 73,000 applications, totaling $917 million in aid, have been tentatively approved.
Housing starts rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.572 million last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. April’s reading was revised lower to 1.517 million from 1.569 million. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected housing starts to rise to 1.63 million.
Starts surged 50% on a year-over-year basis in May. Homebuilding rose in the Midwest, South and West but fell in the Northeast.
The slight increase in homebuilding came as lumber prices topped out on May 7 and fell 22% through the end of the month, finishing below where they ended April. A lumber shortage that developed in the aftermath of COVID-19 lockdowns caused the cost of the critical material to soar, resulting in builders putting off projects and losing confidence.
Permits for future construction slipped 3% to a rate of 1.681 million units in May, missing the 1.73 million units that economists were expecting.
The drop in builder confidence was reflected in the latest National Association of Homebuilder’s/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index that was released on Tuesday. The index fell two points in June to 81, a 10-month low.
January marked the fifth straight month that the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has reported a decline in its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index, based on newly signed contracts for the purchase of existing homes, was down 2.8 percent from its December level.
The index in January was at 122.8 compared to 125.5 in December and has lost 10 points since August. Still, pending sales were up 13 percent compared to a year earlier. This January’s PHSI was, in fact, the highest for any January on record.
Analysts had expected the index to be flat but individual estimates by those polled by Econoday all overshot the actual results. They covered a range from a 1.5 percent downturn to 0.5 percent growth. The consensus was for zero change.
“Pending home sales fell in January because there are simply not enough homes to match the demand on the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “That said, there has been an increase in permits and requests to build new homes.” Yun said that increase in single-family permits has been consistent for eight months and is a good sign that the supply and demand imbalance in the residential real estate market could be easing as soon as mid-2021.
“There will also be a natural seasonal upswing in inventory in spring and summer after few new listings during the winter months,” he said. “These trends, along with an anticipated ramp-up in home construction will provide for much-needed supply.”
Following a week where January’s existing-home sales increased, Yun noted that pending contracts are a great early indicator for upcoming closed sales but stressed that the timing of the relationship between existing-home sales and pending home sales may not be in lockstep.
“The two measurements aren’t always perfectly correlated due to varying amounts of time required to close a contract,” Yun said. “This is because a number of fallouts can occur due to a variety of factors, including a buyer not obtaining mortgage financing, a problem with a home inspection, or an appraisal issue.”
He noted that the economy is showing promising signs of improvement, and many millions of Americans are now receiving a COVID-19 vaccination. Still, he cautioned that the better economic outlook, rising inflation prospects and higher budget deficits will soon drive increases in interest rates. “I don’t foresee mortgage rates jumping to an alarming level,” he said, “but we should prepare for a rise of at least a decimal point or two.”
Pending home sales transactions in the South inched up 0.1 percent to an index of 151.3 in January and were 17.1 percent higher year-over-year. The index in the West was at 104.6, a 7.8 percent drop from December but up 11.5 percent from a year prior.
The PHSI is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. Existing home sales numbers for February will be released on March 22.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.
“The housing market continues to surge higher and support an otherwise stagnant economy that has lost momentum in the last couple of months,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Mortgage rates are at record lows and pushing many prospective homebuyers off the sidelines and into the market. Homebuyer sentiment is sanguine and purchase demand shows no real signs of waning at all heading into next year.” Visit tvbedstore website where you can find the best furniture for your new house.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.67 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 17, 2020, down from last week when it averaged 2.71 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.73 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.21 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.26 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.19 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Low mortgage rates and record-low housing inventory has driven home price increases throughout the year. The National Association of Realtors is saying that the median single-family home price grew year over year in all 181 metro areas it tracks.
In the U.S., median existing single-family home prices rose 12% year over year to $313,500, NAR said. In 117 metros, there were double-digit price gains from one year ago. For added perspective, in Q2, only 15 metro areas had double-digit price gains.
What can help remedy high home prices? Finding a solution to the housing inventory crisis, NARs Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.
By the end of Q3, 1.47 million existing homes were available for sale, which is 19.2% lower than the total inventory at the end of Q3 last year. As of September 2020, there were enough homes in inventory to last 2.7 months at the current sales pace.
“As home prices increase both too quickly and too significantly, first-time buyers will increasingly face difficulty in coming up with a down payment,” Yun said. “Transforming raw land into developable lots and new supply are clearly needed to help tame the home price growth.”
Some of the metros with the biggest gains in Q3 were Bridgeport, Conn., 27.3%; Crestview, Fla., 27.1%; Pittsfield, Mass., 26.9%; Kingston, N.Y., 21.5%; and Atlantic City, N.J., 21.5%.
According to NAR, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical single-family home rose to $1,059 in Q3. As of Thursday, the average U.S. mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 2.84%, Freddie Mac said.
“Favorable mortgage rates will continue to bring fresh buyers to the market,” said Yun. “However, the affordability situation will not improve even with low-interest rates because housing prices are increasing much too fast.”
Proof that the local home sales market is very strong despite the COVID pandemic can be found in the latest statistics released today by the National Association of Realtors. NAR reports that existing-home sales in the Northeast rose by a record 30.6% in the month of July.
NAR reported that nationwide home sales continued on a strong, upward trajectory in July, marking two consecutive months of significant sales gains. Each of the four major regions attained double-digit, month-over-month increases, although the Northeast was the only region to show a year-over-year decline.
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 24.7% from June to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million in July. The previous record monthly increase in sales was 20.7% in June of this year. Sales as a whole rose year-over-year, up 8.7% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2019).
“The housing market is well past the recovery phase and is now booming with higher home sales compared to the pre-pandemic days,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “With the sizable shift in remote work, current homeowners are looking for larger homes and this will lead to a secondary level of demand even into 2021.”
The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $304,100, up 8.5% from July 2019 ($280,400), as prices rose in every region. July’s national price increase marks 101 straight months of year-over-year gains. For the first time ever, national median home prices breached the $300,000 level.
Total housing inventory at the end of July totaled 1.50 million units, down from both 2.6% in June and 21.1% from one year ago (1.90 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 months in June and down from the 4.2-month figure recorded in July 2019.
Yun notes these dire inventory totals have a substantial effect on sales.
“The number of new listings is increasing, but they are quickly taken out of the market from heavy buyer competition,” he said. “More homes need to be built.”
Last week, NAR released its latest data for metro home prices, which found that in 2020’s second quarter, median single-family home prices saw a 96% increase when compared to a year earlier.
Properties typically remained on the market for 22 days in July, seasonally down from 24 days in June and from 29 days in July 2019. Sixty-eight percent of homes sold in July 2020 were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 34% of sales in July, down from 35% in June 2020 and up from 32% in July 2019. NAR’s 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, released in late 2019, revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 33%.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in July, up from both 9% in June 2020 and from 11% in July 2019. All-cash sales accounted for 16% of transactions in July, equal to the percentage in June 2020 and down from 19% in July 2019.
Distressed sales—foreclosures and short sales—represented less than 1% of sales in July, down from 3% in June up from 2% in June 2019.
“Homebuyers’ eagerness to secure housing has helped rejuvenate our nation’s economy despite incredibly difficult circumstances,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco. “Admittedly, we have a way to go toward full recovery, but I have faith in our communities, the real estate industry and in NAR’s 1.4 million members, and I know collectively we will continue to mount an impressive recovery.”
Realtor.com’s Market Hotness Index, measuring time-on-the-market data and listing views per property, revealed that the hottest metro areas in July were Topeka, KA; Rochester, NY; Burlington, NC; Columbus, OH and Reading, PA.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.02% in July, down from 3.16% in June. The average commitment rate across all of 2019 was 3.94%.
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales sat at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in July, up 23.9% from 4.26 million in June, and up 9.8% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $307,800 in July, up 8.5% from July 2019.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units in July, up 31.8% from June and equal to a year ago. The median existing condo price was $270,100 in July, an increase of 6.4% from a year ago.
“Luxury homes in the suburbs are attracting buyers after having lagged the broader market for the past couple of years,” Yun said. “Single-family homes are continuing to outperform condominium units, suggesting a preference shift for a larger home, including an extra room for a home office.”
For the second consecutive month, sales for July increased in every region and median home prices grew in each of the four major regions from one year ago.
July 2020 existing-home sales in the Northeast rocketed 30.6%, recording an annual rate of 640,000, a 5.9% decrease from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $317,800, up 4.0% from July 2019.
Existing-home sales jumped 27.5% in the Midwest to an annual rate of 1,390,000 in July, up 10.3% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $244,500, an 8.0% increase from July 2019.
Existing-home sales in the South shot up 19.4% to an annual rate of 2.59 million in July, up 12.6% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $268,500, a 9.9% increase from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West ascended 30.5% to an annual rate of 1,240,000 in July, a 7.8% increase from a year ago. The median price in the West was $453,800, up 11.3% from July 2019.
Prices paid for goods used in residential construction increased 1.9% in June (not seasonally adjusted) according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is the second consecutive monthly increase since the index declined three months straight by a total 5.4%.
The index has decreased 3.0% year-to-date (YTD), five times the magnitude of the prior record for a June YTD decrease (-0.6% in 2009). Prices paid for goods used in residential construction have only fallen four times between January and June since 2000.Well when buying real estate it also includes important parts like garage door.Price of garage door may vary,So you might get confused which garage door to buy! Don’t worry check over here and you will able to clear all your doubts here.
The increase in prices paid for goods used in residential construction was led by a 12.9% increase in softwood lumber prices. Since decreasing 10.8% in April, softwood lumber prices have risen 16.5% and are now at the highest level since July 2018—the peak of the early- to mid-2018 runup. Although the YTD percentage increase in prices paid for softwood lumber is roughly two-thirds of the increase seen over the same period in 2018, timing of PPI data collection suggests that a recent, sharp advance in prices will be captured in the July PPI report.
Prices paid for gypsum products climbed 0.6% in June after increasing 1.5% in May (seasonally adjusted). The price index for gypsum products has risen 0.8% over the past 12 months and is 7.7% lower than the most recent peak reached in March 2018.
Even after the monthly increase, gypsum product prices have declined 2.5% YTD. Prices fell by 3.9% over the same period in 2019 and are just 4.4% higher than they were to start 2017.
Nationally, prices paid for ready-mix concrete (RMC) advanced 0.1% in June (seasonally adjusted) after no change in May.
Prices rose in the Northeast and West regions by 0.6% and 4.5%, respectively, while prices paid in the Midwest (-0.4%) and South (-2.3%) decreased month-over-month.
Other changes in indexes relevant to home building and infrastructure are shown below.