Daily Archives: November 25, 2012

China Home Prices Gain in Half the Cities as Market Steadies | North Salem Real Estate

China’s new home prices rose in October in more cities than the previous month, indicating the government will refrain from relaxing curbs on the property market.

Prices climbed in 35 of the 70 cities the government tracks, compared with 31 in September, according to data from the statistics bureau yesterday. Prices fell in 17 cities.

Investors are gauging the government’s policy direction on real estate, rolled out over two years to rein in surging home prices that raised concerns about affordability, after the Communist Party unveiled the new generation of leaders last week. The measures have had a “relatively good” effect and the government will “steadfastly” enforce property controls, Housing Minister Jiang Weixin said in Beijing last week.

“The government has sent out signals that they will not loosen property policies because they don’t want to see a big price rebound,” said Shen Jian-guang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. “At the National People’s Congress next March, it probably could claim victory for controlling property prices.” Delegates and officials gather every March for the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the highest governmental body.

Maintaining Curbs

The northwestern city of Urumqi led gains in October, with a 0.5 percent increase from September, according to the data. Among major cities, the southern business hubs of Guangzhou and Shenzhen recorded gains of 0.4 percent each. Beijing prices rose 0.2 percent, while those in Shanghai and 17 other cities were unchanged.

A gauge tracking property shares on the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.5 percent to the lowest in three weeks at the local close, making it the only measure that declined among the five industry groups on the benchmark.

The government wants to maintain the curbs because steady sales and mild price growth are the “exact situation” it wants to see, while further tightening will damp a tentative recovery in the Chinese economy, Alan Jin, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said before the data.

China’s gross domestic product slowed to 7.4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the weakest in three years, while gauges of manufacturing and retail sales have pointed to a recovery.

With the economy bottoming, home prices won’t have a “bad performance” next year, said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ)

Existing Homes

Home prices rose in 12 cities from a year earlier, the same as in September, the data showed.

“With prices rising or unchanged in the majority of the cities, the downward trend in China’s home prices has been restrained,” said ANZ’s Liu. “Buyers are now holding a wait- and-see position for the policy direction after the new generation of leadership came out.”

Existing home prices were unchanged in Beijing last month from September and increased by 0.2 percent in Shanghai.

Real estate prices in China rose 160 percent in the 1998- 2011 period after the country privatized the property market, according to government data.

In its more than two-year effort to curb the property market, the central government has raised down-payment and mortgage requirements, imposed a property tax for the first time in Shanghai and Chongqing, increased building of low-cost social housing, and placed home-purchase restrictions in about 40 cities.

Property Tax

Many Chinese cities are preparing to introduce property tax trials, China Securities Journal reported on Nov. 16, citing unidentified people. The central government hasn’t yet decided on their scale and timing, it said.

“Given the strength of the rest of the economic data, we don’t think the government is likely to provide stimulus to the housing sector,” said Michael Klibaner, head of China research at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., in an interview in Shanghai. “If there’s concern about the economy, we would expect it to support the first-time home buyers through mortgages and the public housing fund.”

Private data also has shown the housing market is stabilizing. Home prices gained 0.17 percent in October, advancing for a fifth month, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the nation’s biggest real estate website owner.

Developers’ Sales

Contracted sales at 11 major developers were 57.3 billion yuan ($9.2 billion) in October, up 24 percent from September and 41 percent from a year earlier, according to Ryan Li, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. It was the best month since developers started releasing monthly data in January 2009.

China’s housing sales climbed 6.6 percent to 3.88 trillion yuan in the first 10 months, while investment in homes, office buildings, malls and other real estate gained 15.4 percent to 5.76 trillion yuan, National Bureau of Statistics’ data showed.

The ministry is on “high alert” if transaction volume and home prices increase “substantially,” and is “actively” studying expanding a property tax trial, Xinhua News Agency reported on Nov. 13, citing Jiang, the housing minister.

There will not be “meaningful increase” in housing prices this year, and the risk of prices rising by more than 5 percent is “very small”, according to Klibaner.

via bloomberg.com

Arizona’s Economy, Real Estate Market Improving | South Salem Real Estate

The Arizona economy is in recovery mode, with home prices on the rise and construction activity moving higher. Real GDP should grow at an above-average 2.5 percent this year, and hold that momentum into 2013 as the housing recovery strengthened according to the State Monitor Report by BMO Capital Markets Economics.There is increasing evidence that the housing market has stabilized. According to the S&P Case-Shiller Index, prices in Phoenix plunged 57 percent before bottoming last September, but they have surged nearly 20 percent.

This upward movement comes amid a significant drawdown in the months’ supply of homes available for sale, to just 2.3 percent in Q2, or back to pre-recession levels. Arizona suffered a deep housing recession, but upward price momentum is quickly alleviating the relatively high stress on the Arizona market.

Appraisals | Bedford Hills

When Cris Robinson put her Rancho Santa Margarita, Calif., townhouse on the market earlier this year, she noticed that the only nearby homes selling were foreclosures and short sales.

“There wasn’t a single standard sale to (compare) me with,” said Robinson, an equity seller.

Robinson said a buyer offered to pay $317,000, but the appraisal came in at $310,000 — the price at which another home in the neighborhood recently sold. That townhouse was the same model, Robinson said, but it was distressed and needed work. By contrast, her own place had thousands of dollars in custom upgrades, including travertine floors.

A homeowner looking askance at an appraisal is nothing new. But many Realtors also complain that low-ball appraisals are hurting home sales.

The National Association of Realtors says a recent survey indicated that in some cases appraisals are lagging behind the recovering housing market.

Appraisers aren’t always familiar with neighborhoods, and some use foreclosures and short sales as comparable sales without adjusting for them.

Real estate agents note that the low inventory of homes for sale has created bidding wars for many homes, pushing prices higher than recent comparable sales.

In the national survey in September, 1 out of 3 Realtors said they had problems relating to home appraisals in the previous three months. Eleven percent of them said a contract was canceled because an appraised value came in below the price negotiated between the buyer and seller; 9 percent reported a contract was delayed; and 15 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a lower appraisal.

Appraisers say they don’t set the value of a property; they reflect it. They say neither real estate agents nor homeowners are trained to appraise homes.

A nationwide appraisers’ professional association, meanwhile, cites problems in the way appraisal management companies are assigning and paying appraisers. The appraisal management companies contend that their role is misunderstood.

Appraisers say they are the only people involved in real estate transactions who don’t have a stake in the price of a property or whether it sells.

“We’re there to protect the public trust,” said Sara Stephens, president of the Appraisal Institute, the nation’s largest association of real estate appraisers, addressing a group of real estate investors in Yorba Linda, Calif., last month.

Stephens testified before Congress in June, saying, “We often hear from real estate agents, homebuilders and others that appraisals are ‘killing deals,’ and/or holding back the economic recovery. These accusations are unfounded and misguided. Appraisals are not meant to simply support contracts — they are obtained to help lenders assess their overall risk.

“Fundamentally, it does neither the borrower nor lender any good to enter into a mortgage for more than the value of the property,” she said.

A reflection of value

Gilbert Valdez, owner of Coast Appraisal Network, has been appraising homes for nearly 30 years. “The biggest misconception is we’re out there creating value. We’re not,” Valdez said recently as he stood outside a Fountain Valley, Calif., tract home with a measuring tape and a camera, ready to begin an appraisal. “We have a mirror. We’re going to reflect it exactly the way it is.”

Valdez said a home’s location typically is given the most weight, followed by size and condition. He noted that upgrades don’t necessarily pay off as much as a homeowner may expect. He also said the price gap has been closing between foreclosures and standard sales. Short sales, he said, have been “iffy” and “all over the place,” but even short sales are improving.

Ideally, he said, he’ll use three sales that closed in recent months, a pending sale and a listing most comparable to the home in question. He stressed the word “ideally.”

In the case of Robinson’s townhome, the appraiser could not be reached for comment, and it’s unclear what adjustments might have been made. The townhome eventually sold, Robinson said, but for about $6,000 less than what she and the buyer initially agreed on.

Appraisers were among those blamed for the housing bubble — and bust. In turn, appraisers said they felt pressured by mortgage brokers to bump up their property valuations, which helped to drive deals and got borrowers bigger loans.

Protecting the firewall

In 2007, then-New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed a lawsuit against an appraisal company, which led to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac implementing the Home Valuation Code of Conduct of 2009. It required that lenders use a third party, typically an appraisal management company, to arrange for an appraisal. The code of conduct prohibited lenders from speaking directly with the appraiser about the valuation process.

The code was replaced by provisions in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. In addition to working with appraisal management companies, lenders now can set up their own firms. There still are standards to ensure appraisal independence, and the firewall between the lender and the appraiser on any specific appraisal is supposed to remain intact.

Appraisers complain management companies pay them lower fees, and that many appraisers, after seeing their incomes reduced, have left the business.

The Appraisal Institute says on its website: “Today, many lenders utilize third-party management companies to conduct administrative functions. These firms often seek out the lowest-cost service providers, not necessarily the most qualified.”

The National Association of Appraisal Management Companies disagrees with that description. George Panichas, president of the association, said while the companies take a cut of what a lender pays for an appraisal, the firms provide services for appraisers including quality-control reviews and marketing, which helps appraisers get more business. “There are many reasons why an appraiser will work for a reduced fee,” he said.

He added, “It is undeniable there are a handful of appraisal management companies that will try to grind an appraiser down on fee. (But) the vast majority of appraisal companies, we want to pay the appraiser a good fee because we want a good product.”

Stephens, the institute president, also said some appraisers are being required to use eight to 10 comparable homes, more than twice as many as in the past, and appraisers have been sent as far as 400 miles away to evaluate property.

“Having someone who’s local, someone who understands what’s going on in the market is key,” she told the real estate investors gathered in Yorba Linda.

Panichas said lenders, not the appraisal management companies, are requesting additional comparable homes. And he said appraisers may be sent far distances at times, but they should never accept an assignment unless they’re “geographically competent.”

Getting a second opinion

Appraising real estate is not a black and white matter. Adjustments need to be weighed. Judgment is involved. Even appraisers don’t always agree.

Mortgage broker Dennis Smith cited an appraisal on a small apartment property in Long Beach, Calif. The seller and buyer agreed on a sales price of $730,000. The appraisal came in at $620,000.

Smith said some comparable sales the appraiser used were more than three miles away, and a few were sales dating back more than a year.

The appraisal may have been a challenge, Smith said, “But over $100,000 (lower than) what the seller, listing agent, selling agent and buyer felt the property was worth?”

He found some fresher sales for comparable properties with fewer units, but his appeal was rejected.

“So we canceled with that lender and went to another lender and ordered a new appraisal,” said Smith, co-owner of Stratis Financial in Huntington Beach, Calif. The second appraisal came in at $720,000 — with some of the comparable homes he cited in the appeal.

“Same property, same price, same transaction,” Smith said.

The initial appraiser could not be reached for comment.

Realtor Patti Zermeno said she appealed an appraisal of a four-bedroom, three-bath home on more than five acres in Corona, Calif., that she listed this year.

The contract purchase price was for $565,000, but the appraisal came in at $450,000.

“When the numbers came in low, I called (the loan rep) and told her, ‘I know there’s value there. We need to appeal this appraisal,’” said Zermeno, with Century 21 Award in Rancho Santa Margarita.

She said the lender allowed a second appraisal, which raised the value by $15,000, to $465,000.

That appraisal was still much lower than the contract price. But it didn’t kill the deal.

“We were able to close at $500,000 with the seller reducing his price and the buyers increasing their purchase price,” Zermeno said.

“It was a team effort to get it done,” she said. “But I knew I could fight the appraisal.”

In Stephens’ view, the appeal process is not always fair to the appraiser.

Sometimes the person reviewing an appraisal for a lender has less experience than the appraiser does, she said.

“It’s a matter of asking for more and more information (from an appraiser),” she said, “and less and less weight being placed on that information.”

Housing market shows upward trend |

Housing market shows upward trend

Citizen Staff Reports

11/25/12
Housing sales are picking up in Henrico County, as they are across the greater Richmond real estate market, according to a Long & Foster market report.

Chesterfield, Henrico, Goochland and Hanover counties, in addition to the City of Richmond, experienced positive trends in home sales and median sale price compared to October of last year, while inventory continued to tighten throughout the entire Richmond region.

Goochland County led the region in the increase in number of homes sold, experiencing a 43 percent increase over the previous year. Compared to October 2011, Henrico County saw an increase of 16 percent in home sales. Median sale price increased throughout the region with a year-over-year increase of one percent in Henrico.

Active inventory decreased by more than 20 percent, on average, across the Richmond region. Richmond City saw the largest decline of inventory at 28 percent compared to last year, while Henrico County experienced the second largest decline at 24 percent.

Houses continued to sell quickly throughout the Richmond region in October. Days on Market (DOM) in Richmond City was 58 days while Henrico and Chesterfield counties saw an average DOM of 63 days and 65 days, respectively. According to the Long and Foster report (compiled from residential real estate transactions within specific geographic regions, not just Long & Foster sales), the remainder of the region saw homes sell within an average of four months.

“The Richmond housing market again followed an upward trend as historically low interest rates continued to boost consumer confidence in the real estate market in October,” said Jeffrey S. Detwiler, president and chief operating officer of The Long & Foster Companies.

Detwiler added that while the Richmond housing market is experiencing healthy stabilization and growth, tightening inventory can be expected to continue to push home prices up.

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Community

Weekend Top 10

By Sarah Story, Citizen Events Editor 11/22/2012

Have you had enough of crowds and long lines? Take a break at two beautiful places in Henrico – Lewis Ginter Botanical Garden and Lavender Fields Herb Farm. If you’re still reeling from those awkward Thanksgiving conversations, Don “DC” Curry is ready to provide some laughs at the Richmond Funny Bone. For all our top picks, click here! > Read more.

Adriana Trigiani named 2013 ‘All Henrico Reads’ author

Citizen Staff Reports 11/21/2012
The Henrico County Public Library, in partnership with Henrico County Public Schools and the Friends of Henrico County Public Library, will host New York Times bestselling author Adriana Trigiani on Wednesday, April 24, from 7 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. at Glen Allen High School, 10700 Staples Mill Rd., as part of its annual All Henrico Reads program.

The featured title – Trigiani’s novel The Shoemaker’s Wife – will be available for sale, as well as some of her other novels. She will autograph books following the program. > Read more.

Weekend Top 10

By Sarah Story, Citizen Events Editor 11/16/2012

Drum roll, please…the holiday season has begun! Celebrate Santa’s arrival this weekend at Short Pump Town Center and The Shops at Willow Lawn. Why does the Count from Sesame Street love the number eight? A new book will tell you Sunday at the Weinstein JCC. For all our top picks this weekend, click here! > Read more.

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Entertainment

Call of duty

11/15/2012
Local actors ranging in age from five to 60 participated in “Man of Honor,” a play about the Life of Lt. Henry O. Flipper (portrayed by Devon Mosby) Nov. 10 at Henrico Theatre in Highland Springs. Flipper was the first African American to graduate from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. The event also featured a slide show recognizing local veterans, including Welford L. Williams, the subject of a recent story in the Henrico Citizen. > Read more.

Restaurant watch

11/15/2012
Find out how your favorite dining establishments fared during their most recent inspections by the Virginia Department of Health. > Read more.

Tucker graduate to perform in VCU Theatre’s ‘Avenue Q’

11/04/2012
J.R. Tucker High School graduate Max Moore (pictured, seated), a VCU student, will play the role of “Brian” in Theatre VCU’s performance of “Avenue Q,” a Broadway hit that won the 2004 Tony Award for Best Musical.

The show features a cast of people and puppets who tell the story of adult life in New York City in a funny and raunchy way. > Read more.

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