Monthly Archives: February 2016

Mortgage Rates average 3.65% | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates moving lower for the sixth consecutive week amid ongoing market volatility. The average 30-year fixed is hovering just above its 2015 low of 3.59 percent.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.65 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending February 11, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.72 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.69 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.95 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from 3.01 percent last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.99 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.83 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.85 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.97 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for theDefinitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 30-year mortgage rate dropped another 7 basis points this week to 3.65 percent. This week’s drop leaves the mortgage rate just 6 basis points above last year’s low of 3.59 percent.”

“In a falling rate environment, mortgage rates often adjust more slowly than capital market rates, and the early-2016 flight-to-quality has run true to form. The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped 36 basis points since the start of the year, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped 59 basis points over the same period. If Treasury yields were to hold at current levels, mortgage rates might well sink a little further before stabilizing.”

New Study Suggests MLS Sold Prices are Inflated in Down Markets | Mt Kisco Real Estate

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Transaction prices reported by multiple listing services may differ by an average of 8.75 percent from sold prices reported on HUD-1 settlement statements, possibly because brokers are under pressure to inflate prices in a declining market, according to a new study by three real estate economists at Florida Gulf Coast University published last month by the Appraisal Journal.

In residential appraisal assignments, appraisers often place heavy reliance, at least as a starting point, on multiple listing services (MLS) for property information and transaction prices.Errors will almost inevitably find their way into large databases, and an MLS is certainly no exception. The purpose of this study is to examine the prevalence and magnitude of differences in MLS-reported transaction prices compared to their associated HUD-1 (HUD) Settlement Statements, said the article..

The study found MLS errors are related to market conditions, not property price levels, and are likely to be smaller during a market boom and larger during a market bust.  The study found that MLS-reported prices supplied by brokers on or after the settlement date overstated HUD-reported prices in 6.25% of the sample and understated HUD-reported prices in 2.50%. The data used in the analysis were drawn from the two years before, the year of, and the two years after the market peak between 2004 and 2008.  The study compared HUD-1 and MLS prices from a sample of 670 HUD-1 Settlement Statements obtained from two banks operating in a Southern state.

2016-01-19_9-41-34Source: “Reported Price Errors:A Caveat for Appraisers” in The Appraisal Journal

“This finding is consistent with, but certainly does not prove, the notion that if brokers are motivated to inflate MLS prices, pressure to do so is likely to be greater in declining markets. However, there may be other explanations for the price discrepancies. One such explanation is the possibility that during declining markets, brokers may report initial contract prices that may be subject to downward adjustment between contract and settlement dates. A related possibility is that some prices are renegotiated at the time of closing to accommodate buyers’ cash needs. Regardless of explanation, however, the result is a misstating of price,” the authors concluded.

The study urged appraisers to use other sources in addition to MLS transaction prices to verify reported sale prices, especially when a sale price contradicts sale prices of comparable properties.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/new-study-suggests-mls-sold-prices-are-inflated-in-down-markets/

Homeowners Still Overvalue their Homes | North Salem Real Estate

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Average appraised values in December were 1.8 percent lower than homeowners’ opinion of their home’s value, marking the 11th straight month when appraised values were lower than homeowners expected, although the gap between the two values has narrowed since August.

The Quicken Loans’ national Home Value Index (HVI) – a measure of home values based on recent appraisals used in to refinance mortgages – showed that home values continuing to climb in December. Appraised values increased a modest 0.18 percent from November, but have risen a steady 5.81 percent since December 2014 and 3.8 percent since the beginning of the year.quickenn

Appraised values continued to fall below homeowner estimates in December. On average, appraiser opinions were 1.8 percent lower than the value homeowners expected, according to the national HPPI. Many of the metro areas studied also showed perception moving closer to equal. Appraisals remained higher in Western cities, while homeowner expectations topped appraised values in many of the Northeastern and Midwestern cities examined.

“The narrowing of the perceived vs. appraisal value gap is an excellent way to end the year,” said Quicken Loans Chief Economist Bob Walters. “The more homeowners are in line with appraisers, and understand the equity in their home, the easier it will be to refinance their mortgage. In the same vein, if homebuyers understand how the local market is performing, they will be better equipped to come in with a strong offer on the home of their dreams.”

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Appraisals remain a significant cause of delay or termination of sales contracts.  Of all contracts settled or terminated, financing, appraisal, and home inspection issues were the major problems: 18 percent had financing issues, 13 percent had home inspection issues, and 11percent had appraisal issues, said the National Association of Realtors in its October Realtor Confidence Index.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/homeowners-still-overvalue-their-homes/

 

Will Sellers Step up the Plate in 2016? | South Salem Real Estate

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“It is important to recognize that 2016 is shaping up to be the best year in recent memory to sell. Supply remains very tight, so inventory is moving faster. Given the forecast that price appreciation will slow in 2016 to a more normal rate of growth, delaying will not produce substantially higher values, and will also see higher mortgage rates on any new purchase,” wrote Realtor.com Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke recently.

Should his sage advice to sellers fall on deaf ears, 2016 could produce one of the most miserable housing market in years.  After seven years of struggle, the issue no longer is demand, it’s supply. Anemic inventories are artificially driving up prices that keep first-time buyer trapped in rentals, which as expect to soar again this year.

Home sales prices have risen between 15 and 20 percent over the past three seasons, depending on which series you believe.  We’re less than 18 months away from reaching a national median sales price that’s higher than the very highest peak at the very top of the housing bubble in 2006.

Frozen stiff without enough equity to sell for nearly decade, owners at last have made it to the light at the end of the tunnel.  They can sell and cash out.  They can refi or take out a HELOC and stay put.  Moreover, with experts predicting that sale prices will moderate in 2016 to 4-5 percent appreciation from 6 percent as the market slow down to catch, this could be the perfect year to sell.

With the clock ticking on the opening of the 2016 season, now is the time potential sellers are making up their minds to sell or not.

Fannie Mae

In Fannie Mae’s December Home Purchase Sentiment Index, fewer than half of respondents said it’s a good time to sell (49 percent) and 41 percent said it’s a bad time to sell.  Not exactly a strong endorsement but at least movement in the right direction.  The best thing about the findings was that in November the sentiment to sell was even lower—48 percent said it was a good time and percent and 44 percent said it was a bad time.

 2016-01-07_13-11-01In December less than half of Fannie Mae’s survey sample said it’s a good time to sell.

The net percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a house rose after falling for two months in a row – rising 4 percentage points to a net 8 percent positive at the end of the year.  Not much of an improvement over last year.

“Brightening economic prospects, if sustained, should stimulate demand for homeownership. However, continuing upward pressure on rental prices and constrained housing supply, particularly for starter homes, may mean prospective first-time home buyers could face affordability constraints,” said Fannie Mae’s Doug Duncan.

 

2016-01-07_12-51-57

 Twenty percent 0f Trulia’s sample of consumers said 2016 will he a better year to sell than 2015, and 36 percent more than in 2014.

Trulia

Trulia’s housing predictions survey showed real positive change as consumers recognized 2016 is a significantly better climate to sell than 2015 was. Some 20 percent said it will be better than 2015 to sell and 14 percent said it 2015 would he better than 2014, for a net gain of 36 percent in two years, more than a third of consumers.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/will-sellers-step-up-the-plate-in-2016/

NAR Lowers Sales Forecast | Cross River Real Estate

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The National Association of Realtors has reduced its outlook for existing sales in 2016 from a 3 percent increase over 2015 (5.45 million sales) to an increase of only 1 to 2 percent (5.30 to 5.40 million sales).

The new forecast, three months before the opening of the home sales season, amends an early one made at NAR’s annual meeting in November.

“This year the housing market may only squeak out 1 to 3 percent growth in sales because of slower economic expansion and rising mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a video posted on the NAR site. “Furthermore, the continued rise in home prices will occur due to the fact that we will again encounter housing shortages in many markets because of the cumulative effect of homebuilders under producing for multiple years. Once the spring buying season begins, we’ll begin to feel that again.”

With one month of data remaining for 20151, Yun expects total existing-homes sales to finish the year up 6.5 percent from 2014 at a pace of around 5.26 million –the highest since 2006, but roughly 25 percent below the prior peak set in 2005 (7.08 million).

Yun did not alter his November price forecast. The national median existing-home price for all of 2015 will be close to $221,200, up around 6 percent from 2015.  Yum calls for prices to soften to a 5 to 6 percent increase in sold prices.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/nar-lowers-sales-forecast/

A Chill in 2016 Price Forecasts | Waccabuc Real Estate

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Prices in the year to come are going to be a lot worse than most earlier forecasts, according to  Clear Capital’s view of the market, which refuses to “sugarcoat the data”.  The provider of real estate valuations, data and analytics calls for continued market instability and a trend of decreasing rates over the next 12 months, especially in mid tier homes.

The overall Clear Capital® Home Data Index™ (HDI™) forecasts 2016 home price appreciation will be in the range of 1 percent to 3 percent,  significantly lower than the 5.1 percent growth rate during 2015 and the 6.6 percent growth rate in 2014, demonstrating continued market instability and a trend of decreasing rates.

Most other forecasts, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have called for a modest decline in price appreciation in 2016, to 3 to 4.5 percent.

“While we would love to sugarcoat the HDI data and declare that 2016 merely will be a normalization of the housing market to historical averages not seen since the late 1990s, several factors indicate that it could be another volatile year leading to ongoing uncertainty about the future of American housing,” says Alex Villacorta, Ph.D., vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

Ultimately, overall national growth will be positive throughout 2016, but these rates are underwhelming and signal the end of the explosive growth typical of the first half of this decade. The forecast is predicting an average of only 0.4 percent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth for each quarter during 2016. Growth in this range is rather lackluster when compared to the previous two years, when home prices grew by an average of 1.5 percent quarterly over the period from January 2014 to January 2016.

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Homes in the low tier (selling below $116,000 nationwide) are forecasted to appreciate more significantly than other tiers during the next year, averaging just under 1.0 percent quarterly growth throughout 2016. By definition, the low tier is affordable to the widest range of potential homeowners and investors. This larger class of buyers will likely cause continued higher appreciation for the country’s most affordable home tier.

The overall trend of decreasing rates of growth during 2016 will primarily affect the middle price tier—representing the middle 50 percent of all transactions, currently comprised of homes selling between $116,000 and $337,500 nationwide. While growth in the middle price range is not projected to be the lowest of all the price tiers, the mid tier shows a consistent decrease in quarterly growth over the forecast period, falling from 0.5 percent QoQ growth in January 2016 to just under 0.2 percent QoQ by the end of the year.

Conversely, the top price tier (homes selling above $337,500 nationwide) forecasts relatively consistent quarterly growth, hovering around the 0.2 percent QoQ mark. Historically, pricing in this class of homes has moved slowly in the sense that gains and losses both have been smaller by percentage due to higher initial prices. The contrast to the low tier highlights the diversity in performance that remains in today’s real estate market.

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Generally, year-over-year growth rates are forecasted to be lower for all MSAs in the nation, with no exceptions . The highest growth in 2016 is forecasted to occur in Denver, where home prices are projected to grow by 7.7 percent during the course of the upcoming year, compared to the 11.7 percent annual growth seen in 2015.

While slower growth plagues the forecasts of all major cities across the nation, the luxury markets are among the hardest hit. Miami and San Jose are projected to grow by only 1.3 percent and 1.4 percent respectively during 2016, after each MSA saw market growth in excess of 10% during 2015. Other cities like Chicago, New York, and San Francisco are forecasted to see significant changes to their 2015 performance, with little to no growth for the upcoming year.

Home price appreciation in Detroit, which saw an uncharacteristic increase in QoQ growth toward the end of 2015, is forecasted to fall 5.8 percent over the course of 2016. This is compared to annual growth in excess of 11 percent in 2015, making Detroit one of the hardest-hit MSAs of the forecast. Since May 2013, the Detroit MSA has seen declining quarterly gains in 9 of 10 quarters, with the most recent quarter less than half of the Q3 2015 market performance. Based on this rapidly decelerating rate of price growth, it is quite possible this metro turns negative by year end.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/clear-capital-puts-a-chill-in-2016-price-forecasts/

No Relief in Sight on Rents | Katonah NY Real Estate

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The long anticipated slowdown in rent increases from record numbers of new multi-family projects opening for business has yet to materialize as rental demand drove rents to record levels in the first three quarters of 2015, sending the national apartment market soaring to its strongest year in a decade.

According to data from Axiometrics, a specialist in apartment market research and analysis:

  • Annual effective rent growth of 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015 represented a 7-basis-point (bps) increase from the figure of one year earlier (also rounded to 4.7%), though it was 35 bps lower than the 5.2% of the third quarter of 2015. The fourth-quarter rate is the highest year-end figure since 2005, when effective rent growth was 5.8%.
  • Rent growth has been 4.7% or above for five straight quarters, even though a three-quarter streak of at least 5.0% growth was broken. Never in Axiometrics’ 20-year history has annual effective rent growth been at 4.7% or above for such a long period.
  • Quarter-over-quarter effective rent growth was -0.6% in the fourth-quarter, continuing a trend of negative rent growth at the end of the year. That rate was a 32-bps decrease from the 0.3% reported in 4Q14 and marked the only quarter of 2015 in which the rent-growth rate decreased from the corresponding quarter of 2014. It should be noted that quarter-to-quarter rent growth is normally negative in the fourth quarter due to seasonality.
  • Average national rent was $1,244 for the fourth quarter of 2015, a $54 increase from the average of $1,188 in the fourth quarter of 2014.
QUARTERLY EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Quarter2012201320142015
First0.6%0.4%0.5%0.9%
Second2.2%2.1%2.7%2.7%
Third1.3%1.2%1.7%2.0%
Fourth-0.6%-0.9%-0.3%-0.6%
 Source: Axiometrics Inc.

 

“Quarters 1-3 were the most robust period we have seen since before the Great Recession,” said Jay Denton, Axiometrics’ Senior Vice President of Analytics. “Much of the fourth-quarter moderation can be attributed to several Western markets that experienced double-digit rent growth for most of the year but could not sustain that pace.”

Denton added, “Those markets remain quite strong at 6% and higher rent growth. Axiometrics forecasted those metros to moderate, and they did late in the year. As expected, they remained among the top markets for rent growth despite the deceleration late in the year.”

In other metrics:

  • Occupancy was 95.0% in the fourth quarter, the highest 4Q rate since the 95.9% at the end of 2000. The 4Q15 rate was 38 bps lower than the 95.3% of 3Q15, but 10 bps higher than the 94.9% of 4Q14.
  • Annual effective rent growth was positive in 49 of Axiometrics’ top 50 markets, based on number of units. Only Oklahoma City was negative, at -0.6%. Two metros, Portland, OR (12.0%) and Oakland (11.3%), ended the year with double-digit rent growth.

Portland Remains No. 1 for Rent Growth

In the third quarter, Portland replaced Oakland as the metro with the highest annual effective rent growth among Axiometrics’ top 50 markets, and Oregon’s most populous area retained that distinction in the fourth quarter.

Oakland maintained the No. 2 position, but its Bay Area neighbors dropped in the rankings. San Francisco and San Jose, Nos. 3 and 5 last quarter, were Nos. 7 and 9 in the fourth quarter. California placed seven metros in the fourth-quarter top 25, including No. 3 Sacramento and No. 6 San Diego, while Florida placed five, including No. 5 Orlando.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/no-relief-in-sight-on-rents/

Will New York’s White Hot Real Estate Market Fizzle this year? | Bedford Hills Real Estate

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New York City’s real estate market has reached blistering temperatures, with record sale prices reported at the end of 2015. In the fourth quarter alone, the average sale price for a Manhattan apartment hit a lofty $1.95 million, representing a 12% jump year-over-year, according to the latest Elliman Report.

Over the same period, the median sale price topped $1.15 million while the price per square foot climbed to a jaw-dropping $1,645. In the rental market, Manhattan rental prices have increased by 3.9% over the last year, with the average rental price hitting $4,071 as of November 2015.

Demand from global buyers who are looking to escape the fallout from the market slowdown in China is what’s leading the push in the condo market, where new construction sale prices are averaging just shy of $3.3 million. Newly developed properties represented an 18.6% share of the overall sales market through the fourth quarter.

On the co-op side, pricing is still moving up but it’s been slower to peak, with the average sale price hovering around $1.28 million. The number of active listings declined by 6.2% from the fourth quarter of 2014, while sales are down 4% over the same time frame. Despite these dips, 2015 was still a record-setting year and the big question is, what’s next for the New York real estate market?
China’s slide will help to maintain the momentum

From an investor standpoint, real estate remains a hot ticket for 2016 and New York is set to remain on solid ground, despite foreign market upsets. China’s shaky economic outlook has triggered a fight-or-flight response among foreign investors and the result is a substantial shift in assets to less volatile U.S. holdings, including real estate.

According to Collier’s 2016 Global Investor Outlook, New York continues to be a prime destination for wealthy investors in need of a safe haven. Manhattan took the lead in terms of global capital in the third quarter of 2015, raking in more than $4 billion. That trend looks set to continue, with 24% of overseas investors planning to invest in New York real estate over the next 12 months.

 

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/navathwal/2016/01/19/will-new-yorks-white-hot-real-estate-market-fizzle-in-2016/#2715e4857a0b1a3e37435661

30 Yr Mortgage rates average 3.72% | Bedford Realtor

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Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates moving lower for the fifth consecutive week amid ongoing market volatility. The average 30-year fixed is at its lowest point since the week of April 30, 2015 when it averaged 3.68 percent.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.72 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending February 4, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.79 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.59 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.01 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from 3.07 percent last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.92 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.85 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.90 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.82 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for theDefinitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Market volatility — and the associated flight to quality — continued unabated this week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped another 15 basis points, and the 30-year mortgage rate fell 7 basis points as well, to 3.72 percent. Both the Treasury yield and the mortgage rate now are in the neighborhood of early-2015 lows. These declines are not what the market anticipated when the Fed raised the Federal funds rate in December. For now, though, sub-4-percent mortgage rates are providing a longer-than-expected opportunity for mortgage borrowers to refinance.”

Average homeowner in Mass. to see taxes rise 4% | Bedford Real Estate

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Property taxes are on the rise in Massachusetts, with the average bill on a single-family home increasing by about $206 this year, as home assessments and the cost of services by cities and towns continue to go up.

The average property tax bill for a single-family home this year is $5,438, or 3.9 percent higher than last year’s average of $5,232, according to a Globe analysis of 328 of the state’s 351 communities for which comparable data were available.

The average assessed value of a single-family home in those communities has risen a similar amount, about 3.8 percent, to $383,606.

Forty-six of the 328 communities can expect bills to increase on average by 6 percent or more, the Globe review found.

Statewide, increases range from less than 1 percent in more than a dozen communities to as much as 17 percent in the city of Chelsea; or from as little as $3 in Bridgewater to as much as $825 in Brookline.

Boston homeowners will see a $15 increase in their bills on average. Among other nearby communities, bills in Lexington will rise, on average, by $764; in Newton by $637; in Somerville by $166; and in Cambridge by $29.

The average bill is decreasing in just 16 municipalities. Ten other communities have not set their tax rates

 

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http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/01/18/mass-homeowners-billed-more-property-taxes-average-this-year/I7Qr7Hp3mhn3av1gaoQUgP/story.html?s_campaign=email_BG_TodaysHeadline&s_campaign=