Daily Archives: October 14, 2015

Move up Buyers Move the Housing Markets | Bedford Real Estate

Move up Buyers Move the Housing Markets

Purchases by current homeowners helped bolster home prices in August, according to results from the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey.

“Current homeowner purchases are supporting the housing market,” said Tom Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys. “Metrics such as the sales-to-list price ratio show a strong housing market, particularly in western states. Nonetheless, forward-looking commentary from real estate agents may indicate some softening in the future.”

The market share for current homebuyers surged in the summer while the first-time homebuyer share declined. Current homeowners accounted for 49.3% of purchases in August, based on a three-month moving average after hitting a 12-month low of 44.9% in March.

The first-time homebuyer share was 38.3% in May – a level not seen since 2010. But higher home prices and seasonal patterns combined to push the first-time buyer share down to 36.4% in August. The investor share of home purchases has also fallen from 18.7% in March to 14.4% in August. NAR’s Realtor Confidence Index reported a 32 percent share for first-timers in August, up from 28 percent in July.

2015-09-25_10-10-31Source: NAR’s Realtor Confidence Report, August 2015

The sales-to-list price ratio for non-distressed properties declined modestly in August (to 98.3%) compared with the previous month (98.5%) but remained above the level seen in August 2014 (97.5%). All three states on the west coast maintained sales-to-list price ratios above 100% in August, led by California at 102.2%.

The median existing–home price for all housing types in August was $228,700, which is 4.7 percent above August 2014 ($218,400). August’s price increase marks the 42nd consecutive month of year–over–year gains.

The average time on market for non-distressed properties continued to decline in August, hitting 7.9 weeks compared with an average of 8.2 weeks the previous month and 8.6 weeks in August 2014. Non-distressed properties sold in the Pacific Northwest in August were on the market for an average of 4.5 weeks. NAR reported that properties typically stayed on the market for 47 days in August, an increase from 42 days in July but below the 53 days in August 2014. Forty percent of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month.

Meanwhile, the proportion of distressed properties started to level off. Real estate owned properties and short sales accounted for 16.6% of sales in August compared with a 16.8% share the previous month. In August 2014, distressed properties accounted for 21.7% of home sales.

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/move-up-buyers-move-the-housing-markets/

Home Prices: The Tilting of America | Pound Ridge Real Estate

The chart below from Case-Shiller’s release today of its July data says it all.  Prices now are shifting a lot on a monthly basis.  The range between appreciating and depreciating markets seems to be growing and no longer do the “sand” states, judicial foreclosure states or foreclosure states or cities with the best economies and most jobs.

Rather, with the possible exceptions of Cleveland and Boston, appreciating markets are to be found west of the Mississippi and depreciating ones to the east, as if America were a great raft at sea with too much weight on one end.

These are seasonally adjusted month-over-month increases and they are particularly important because both seasonally adjusted existing sales and pending sales dropped unexpectedly in August, according to NAR.  Like Case-Shiller, NAR found annualized prices in the West (7.1%) much higher than the East (2.4%)2015-09-29_13-30-14

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/home-prices-the-tilting-of-america/

Forecasted Values in 17 Top Markets on Weiss Maps | Chappaqua Real Estate

Here are 17 digital maps from the 100 million house database created by Allan Weiss, former CEO of Case Shiller Weiss.  Each house is a repeat sales index, which enables each index to anticipate values accurately up to 12 months in the future.

The colors represent month-over-month trends.  Red indicates depreciation, green appreciation and gray neutral.

A full set of 90 metros and 5500 Zip codes can be found on Weissindex.com and Owners.com.  Dynamic maps on the sites begin in 2006 and show changing values a month at a time.

Copyright Weiss Residential Research LLC. Provided by Owners.com.  Forecasted values have a margin of error of 3 ½ percent.

 

Atlanta July 2016

Atlanta

Chicago July 2016

chicag

Cleveland July 2016

cleveland

Denver July 2016

Denver

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/weiss-forecast-maps-of-top-markets/

Student Debt Is a Bigger Barrier to Homeownership than ever | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Student loan debt continues to grow as an obstacle in a consumer’s ability to buy a home, as 57 percent of 2015 respondents who acknowledge having student loans said this debt was either “very much” or “somewhat” of an obstacle, compared to 49 percent of 2014 respondents, according to the third annual America at Home survey from NeighborWorks America.

The survey found that generally levels of student debt among adults have not changed greatly in the past year.  The percent that personally has any student debt stayed the same, at 17 percent of the national sample.  The percentage that worries about their student debt they owe either all of the time or some of the time also stayed constant, at 30 percent.

When it comes to their ability to buy a home, however, the survey found that student debt has grown to be an even greater barrier to homeownership now than it was a year ago.  One out of four participants in the survey (25%) said student is “very much of an obstacle” to buying a home, compared to 20 percent a year ago and 32 percent said it is “somewhat of an obstacle” compared to 29 percent a year ago. The percent of adults who said they who has had to delay the purchase of a home because of their student loan debt increased from 24 to 28 percent over the past 12 months.

Additionally, although mortgage rates remain historically low, a generally steady rise in home prices is outpacing income growth, leading homebuyers — especially first-time buyers — to search for ways to build up a down payment. However, nearly 40 percent of respondents have received “nothing at all” in terms of information about down payment assistance programs for middle-income homebuyers, programs that could provide thousands of dollars to help bridge a savings gap.

Finally, the housing market is being pressured by changing demographics. Of the respondents surveyed, 43 percent planned to purchase a home when they “got married or moved in with a life partner.” This is important for the housing market’s rebound, because the median age at first marriage has increased to 29.3 for men and 27.0 for women, according to the Census Bureau, up from 26.8 and 25.1 years, respectively in 2000.

“It’s clear the housing market is directly affected by many factors, and these forces identified in our survey are putting strong downward pressure on growth,” said Paul Weech, president and CEO of NeighborWorks America. “While NeighborWorks can’t address the demographic shift, we are increasing our efforts to support nonprofits that offer homebuyer education and financial capability coaching.”

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/10/student-debt-is-a-bigger-barrier-to-homeownership-than-ever/

TRID and Title: Is Shopping Really an Option? | North Salem Real Estate

In 2005 five companies controlled about 92 percent of the national market for title insurance.  Ten years later, only four title insurers now control 86.9 percent of the title insurance business.  In all but five states, only five companies account for 80 percent of more of premiums paid.

Despite the introduction of online insurerers a federal policies encouraging consumers to shop around, the $12 billion a year title industry looks pretty much the same as it did decades ago.

Will TRID centralize control of the title industry even more or will it initiate a disruption of the status quo?

A stinging 2007 study by the General Accountability Office led to an effort to encourage real shopping by consumers, but failed miserably.  Beginning in 2010, lenders were required to provide applicants estimates for all closing services costs, including title, when each loan application was received.  They were called Good Faith Estimates because lenders are required by law to be “within range” of the final settlement fees.

The idea was to give consumers time to shop for themselves to see if they could find a title company who do as well for less than the one the lender proposed.  Consumers got interested when a widely publicized February 2011 survey commissioned by Federal Title & Escrow Co. in Washington, D.C., showed homebuyers could save as much as $1,180 by shopping for title services.

Save 35 percent

About the same time, a new breed of title insurance company entered the market, promising discounts on a type of policy many home buyers don’t even realize they need: title insurance. When it launched its web platform for closing services in 2008, Entitle Direct took a page from the Geico model and offered savings of 35 percent by selling title insurance directly to the consumer and cutting out the commission-based title agent.  Other direct insurers include OneTitle is a New-York based company that offers savings of 10% on title insurance and Title Forward, a new entrant from Redfin.

“Many consumers are unaware that they have the right to shop around for a lower insurance premium rate and choose their title insurance company,” said Timothy O’Dwyer, CEO of Entitle Direct at the time. “The Internet provides a good starting point for shopping. Search for title insurance or go to one of the sites designed to help with the process.”

Yet seven years later, Entitle ranks only 14th among the industry’s 27 independent companies who collectively did only 12 percent as much business as the four “families” of companies that dominate the business—Fidelity, First American, Old Republic and Stewart.

After five years, GRE’s seemed to make little difference to the industry or consumers.  Why didn’t consumers shop for title services?

“I think it was simply too intimidating for consumers,” said Holden Lewis, assistant managing editor/mortgage analyst at Bankrate.  He tells the story of his wife doing the research to find a title insurer. “She actually called the title company and got a quote.  But you know, she was in the dark in just making that call and knowing who to ask for.  It’s hard.  She got it done but it wasn’t easy.  It was an intimidating process, so I think that just knowing how to shop is the main roadblock.  The consumer is going to say ‘the lender already did this for and whom I to think I can do any better.  I don’t know who to call anyway.”

Four days to shop

TRID changes the process.  It provides consumers with forms that are easier to understand and an accounting how their closing dollars were actually spent, but it also speeds up the timeline for consumers to act.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/10/trid-and-title-is-shopping-an-really-an-option/