Daily Archives: February 9, 2015

Home Price Growth and Children’s Education and Earnings | Chappaqua Real Estate

A recently published paper by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston demonstrates a link between home price gains – and homeownership in general – and the educational attainment and future earnings of children. The paper contributes to the broad academic literature demonstrating the positive social and individual impacts of homeownership.

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), the authors, economists Daniel Cooper and Maria Jose Luengo-Prado, find that when the homeowners’ children are 17 years-old, a 1 percentage point increase of their parents’ area house prices yields approximately 0.9% higher average annual earnings later in life and 1.5% lower average annual income for renters’ children.

The research also indicates that home price growth when children are aged 17 increases higher education enrollment rates at age 19.

The empirical test used data constructed from the PSID. Individuals’ income data running through 2007 were linked to their parents’ information from when the now-adults were aged 17. The ability to track data over time is a key benefit of panel data like the PSID. This process created a dataset of 892 individuals who had their 17th birthday between 1979 and 1999 and were 25 to 45 years old in 2007.

The statistical test controlled for a variety of factors including parents’ income, education non-housing wealth. The authors also used a number of different house price measures and different ages for the children. The statistical results did not vary substantively given these changes, suggesting the findings are robust.

The paper’s results indicate that homeowning parents are better able to invest in the education of their children. The authors conclude that the statistical findings are consistent with prior research concerning the social and private benefits of homeownership (see Robert Dietz and Donald Haurin [Journal of Urban Economics 2003] for a broad review of homeownership impacts from studies in economics and the other social sciences).

The paper does not provide a firm answer on whether the relationship between housing wealth and future college enrollment and higher earnings of children is due to a wealth effect or eased credit constraints for the homeowners to access financing for education. However, the authors do note that the majority of homeowners increase housing-related borrowing for the first time as their children approach college age, thereby suggesting that the home price effect is related to eased borrowing conditions, which enables more investment in their children’s education

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/02/home-price-growth-and-childrens-education-and-earnings/

 

Climb to Price Peaks Resumed in November | Armonk Real Estate

Though sales petered out in November, they were strong enough to continue America’s steady climb out of price troughs that drove more than 6 million American families into foreclosure.

Among the nation’s top 100 largest markets, 93 markets increased their three month average index point change in November, up 35 markets from October, according to Homes.com, which has been tracking the rebound market-by-market since 2013.

Black Knight Financial Services also found that the gap between peak and current median prices narrowed during the month.  In November, national median prices were only 10.1 percent below the national peak of $206,000 reached in June 2006.

Price Rebounds Resumed in Fourth Quarter

Some 111, or 37% of the nation’s top 300 markets have reached or surpassed their price peaks during the housing boom, and the average rebound percentage of all 300 markets affected by the Great In November was 95.49%, which was slightly higher than 95.29% recorded in October.

Markets that lost the least value during the Great Recession are rebounding the fastest. The markets with a peak-to-trough decline of less than 10% had an average rebound percentage of 106% in November. Of the markets that lost 10% to 20% of value, the average rebound percentage reached 98% of the prior peak price in November. Of the markets that experienced the most severe price decline, the average rebound percentage was 81%.

“Lower interest rates, healthy inventories and moderating prices contributed to an improved rebound picture in November. As more and more markets reach and maintain rebound status, equity continues to be restored to thousands of homeowners and could be an indicator of a much stronger market in 2015,” said David Mele, president of Homes.com.

South Maintains Momentum in Largest Markets

The South continued to dominate recovery with 20 markets seeing rebound percentages greater than 100%. The West came in second place with eight markets over a 100% rebound, according to Homes.com’s data.

In November, the top ten markets with the highest three month average percent change were spread between the South, West and Midwest – four markets in the South and three each in the West and Midwest. The seven markets that did not see increases over a three month average are located in the Northeast region, specifically in the New England area. The three month average percentage for the top ten markets ranged from 0.42% to 0.61%, higher than the 0.23% to 0.40% seen in October’s data. The

Three month average percentage change for all top 100 markets was 0.22%, which is significantly higher than the 0.02% recorded last month.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/01/climb-to-price-peaks-resumed-in-november/

 

Look for Rental Profits Where Foreclosures Were | North Salem Real Estate

A number of familiar former foreclosure hotbeds top RealtyTrac’s list of best markets to buy a rental property in the first quarter of 2015.  They’ve got the right mix of employment, growth, prices and potential return.

The report also looks at which markets are seeing the biggest increases in rental rates in 2015 compared to 2014, and provides rankings of the best safe haven residential rental markets, along with the best markets for renting to Millennials, best markets for renting to Generation Xers, and best markets for renting to Baby Boomers.

“With homeownership rates at their lowest level in 20 years, historically low levels of housing starts and relatively low home prices in many parts of the country, there is still plenty of opportunity in the U.S. housing market for single family rental investors employing a variety of investing strategies,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Whether focusing on markets where homeownership-shy Millennials are migrating, markets where recovering Gen X homeowners-turned-renters are prevalent, or markets Baby Boomers are testing for retirement, investors can find good options with solid potential rental returns.

“There are certainly markets where buying single family rentals no longer makes sense because of rapidly rising prices over the past few years,” Blomquist added. “Savvy single family rental investors will tread cautiously in such markets despite the siren song of strong home price appreciation.”

“Buying single family homes as rental properties in Southern California is reserved for those that have a very specific investment strategy,” said Chris Pollinger, senior vice president of sales with First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market, where annual gross yields on rentals range from less than 5 percent in Orange County to nearly 9 percent in the inland San Bernardino County.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/02/look-for-rental-profits-where-foreclosures-were/

Mortgages in 2014: Winners and Losers | Cross River Real Estate

More and more home buyers are finally getting the financing they need, according the year-end Elli Mae Originations Insights Report. But not everyone fared so well.

Two out of three applications for a mortgage were approved in November and December, the highest approval rate in years. Some 67.1 percent of applications were approved, up from 31 percent two years ago and well above the 2014 annual average of 63.3 percent.

Even more importantly, today more people with good but not perfect credit scores are getting mortgages to buy a home. The average FICO score for all loans in 2014 was 726, 12 points lower than 2013 and 22 points lower than it was 748 in 2012. However, the average FICO for a mortgage still higher than the median average FICO score of 692.

FHA borrowers with even lower FICO scores are more likely to get a mortgage approval than conventional borrowers. The average FICO score to buy a home in 2014 was only 684, down from 695 in 2013.

Yet there’s bad news for student loan debtors. Debt to income requirements for purchase loans barely budged in 2014. Average front end ratios for purchase loans were the same in 2014 as 2013: 24 percent. Back end ratios loosened slightly, rising only from 36 to 37 percent. The data may reflect the impact of the QM Rule, implemented in 2014, which limits DTI ratios to 43 percent. For first-time buyers saddled with high student loan debt, this is not good news.

Home buyers applying for conventional financing saw very little improvement in average FICO scores during the year. FICO scores remain very high compared to other loan types. In 2014 the average FICO was 755 for conventional loans, far above the average of 726 for all loan types. By comparison, the average FICO for conventional purchase loan borrowers was 759 in 2013 and 763 in 2012. In two years, the average FICO score for approved conventional purchase loans has changed only 8 points.

Borrowers with the credit and down payment for a conventional loan were also more likely to get approved. A higher percentage of conventional purchase loan applications were approved than any other loan type. In December, 62.8 percent were approved compared to 63.2 percent for FHA loans and 7.1 percent for all purchase loans.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/02/mortgages-in-2014-winners-and-losers/

Down Payment Assistance Available to Most Buyers | Mount Kisco Real Estate

A study to make home buyers realize that they could qualify for a free down payment without winning the lottery found that 87 percent U.S. of US homes qualify for down payment help.

“Many homebuyers, especially Millennials, haven’t fully investigated their home financing options because they are pessimistic about qualifying for a mortgage. Our Homeownership Program Index highlights the wide range and availability of down payment programs available to today’s homebuyers. In fact, 91 percent of the 2,290 programs in our registry have funds available to lend to eligible buyers. Plus, income limits vary depending on the market and programs extend beyond just first-time homebuyers,” said Rob Chrane, president and CEO of Down Payment Resource. “It’s important for buyers to research down payment programs as part of their loan shopping process.”

“Historically low homeownership rates across nearly every age demographic have led to a public policy push to lower the barrier to homeownership through down payments as low as 3 percent, but the fact is that the barrier to homeownership is often much lower than even that 3 percent for borrowers who take advantage of one of the myriad down payment help programs available across the country,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Prospective buyers — or their agents — willing to put in a few minutes of time to find out what programs are available to them will put themselves in a much better position to successfully purchase a home.”

RealtyTrac looked at 2,290 down payment programs from Down Payment Resource’s Homeownership Program Index and found that out of more than 78 million U.S. single family homes and condos in 1,792 counties with sufficient home value data, more than 68 million (87 percent) would qualify for a down payment program available in the county where they are located based on the maximum price requirements for those programs and the estimated value of the properties.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/02/down-payment-assistance-available-to-most-buyers/

 

What’s Happening to the Most Important Homes in Real Estate? | South Salem Real Estate

What’s really happening with homes in the bottom price tiers?

These are the most important homes in the entire real estate economy.  They are where the housing ladder begins: they are then entry point for new buyers, the starter homes that MUST be available and affordable for Millennials if the housing economy is to ever function again as it was meant to.  Until families ready to move up lists their starter homes, nothing is available to buy.

Reams have been written about tight credit stopping first time buyers but almost nothing about an equally serious problem. Homes on the lowest tier haven’t appreciated sufficiently for owners to sell—or even to make it possible for them to sell.

Despite the progress that has made since the housing crash, some 5.1 million homes, or 10.3 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage, were still in negative equity as of Q3 2014, according to CoreLogic.  Another 9.4 million had less than 20-percent equity (referred to as “under-equitied”), making it virtually impossible for them to sell or refinance.  That totals some 14.3 million homes or about 28 percent of homes with a mortgage are frozen in place.

A disproportionate number of lower cost homes are among this total, according to a new analysis from Black Knight Financial Services released this week. Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data through the end of November 2014, found that home price recovery varies significantly for properties within different tiers of home values.  .A decade after the housing crash, some 85 percent of homes valued at less than $200,000 of no equity while 94 percent of homes valued at greater than $200,000 have equity.  Home price recovery for the lowest 20 percent of property values has lagged behind those it the top price tiers.

“We looked at HPI appreciation from pre-crisis peaks to today in the 10 states currently trailing the furthest behind their pre-crisis housing maximums,” said Barnes. “The data showed a clear difference in the levels of recovery among home price tiers. The Black Knight HPI separates home values for every geographical division into five equal tiers; those in the lowest 20 percent of home values have been lagging behind their higher-valued counterparts in recovery to pre-crisis peaks, sometimes considerably.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/02/whats-happening-to-the-most-important-homes-in-real-estate/