Housing prices rose in August as inventory continued to shrink across the nation, anther sign that the sector’s recovery is gathering steam.
Prices were up 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, while the 0.2 percent July increase was revised downward to 0.1 percent, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported Tuesday night, accidentally sent out ahead of Wednesday’s scheduled release.
Prices are up 4.7 percent in the past year. The index is 15.9 percent below its April 2007 peak and is about the same as the June 2004 level.
For the nine census divisions, monthly price changes in August ranged from a drop of 0.5 percent in the East South Central division to an increase of 3 percent in the Pacific.
The housing sector is on the mend and there is greater confidence that after years of struggles, the market has turned the corner.
Despite the housing sector’s primary role in the financial crisis and its drag on the recovery, neither President Obama nor Republican hopeful Mitt Romney has seized on the issue.
Obama hit on the topic a couple of times in the past week, calling on Congress to pass a bill that would provide homeowners who are under water on their mortgages an easier path to refinancing into lower-rate mortgages.
The Senate is scheduled to take up a bill when Congress returns after the election.
Rising prices, improved consumer and builder confidence, a four-year high in housing construction and historically low mortgage rates are bolstering the market’s gradual recovery.
However, the market still faces significant hurdles from continued fiscal uncertainties, lack of credit for builders and potential homebuyers, inaccurate appraisals and the number of seriously delinquent mortgages still in the system.
Monthly Archives: October 2012
Dublin Home Prices Rose Most in Six Years | Chappaqua NY Real Estate
Dublin home prices rose the most in six years in September, the latest sign that Irish residential property prices are stabilizing after the country’s decade-long real estate bubble started to deflate in 2007.
Home prices in the Irish capital rose 2.4 percent from a month earlier, the biggest gain since August 2006, the Central Statistics Office said today. Residential property prices nationwide rose 0.9 percent in September, marking the third consecutive month of gains.
“Anecdotal evidence points to pent-up demand for family homes, especially in certain areas of Dublin,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Merrion Capital in Dublin. “While the figures are encouraging, I think it is too early to say whether house prices are on a steady upward rise.”
Irish property prices are gaining after homes lost half their value since a property crash pushed the nation to the brink of insolvency and the unemployment rate tripled. A lack of bank credit and the end of tax-relief measures for new buyers next year along with high unemployment will weigh on the housing market, according to McQuaid.
Ireland’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 14.8 percent in September. New Irish mortgages granted in the second quarter declined 16 percent to 524 million euros ($678 million) from the same period a year earlier, the Irish Banking Federation said in August.
“For homes in well-established parts of Dublin, demand is outstripping supply,” Aoife Brennan, head of research at Lisney, an Irish broker, said in a statement today. “In recent months, cash buyers have been making up about 40 percent of the Dublin market.”
The CSO data is compiled with mortgage data from lenders. Dublin home prices would show a bigger increase if cash purchases were included, according to Lisney.
Fed to Target Jobs and Housing Market | Armonk NY Real Estate
First, do no harm. That is at the top of the oath that every physician takes. But many pediatricians will prescribe antibiotics for a young child with a cold mainly to mollify the parents.
No matter that antibiotics can’t do anything for a viral infection. The parents want something, anything to be done to make their tot feel better (and let them get some sleep),so many pediatricians find themselves writing the scrip, which mainly was the path of least resistance.
Central bankers have followed the same position. The Federal Reserve Wednesday reaffirmed its plan to continue to pump liquidity in the financial system through securities purchases until the unemployment rate fell to levels considered normal. If normal is not the equivalent of 98.6 degrees farenheit, then it at least until the fever has broken.
There was a time when the Fed demurred that it could control much of anything, even money, which after all was something in its field of purview. After allegedly trying to target the growth of the money supply in the early 1980s, the Fed determined it couldn’t even define what constituted money in the then brave new world of money-market funds.
The Fed couldn’t manipulate things, as in the classic Al Hirschfeld illustration of “My Fair Lady” with George Bernard Shaw playing the puppeteer manipulating the character of Henry Higgins played by Rex Harrison, who in turn manipulated Eliza Doolittle played by Julie Andrews. So Paul Volcker, then the Fed chairman, gave up on targeting the money supply and sought to aim to keep inflation at bay.
As with pornography and the Supreme Court, the Fed may not have been able to define inflationary easy money, but it could recognize it. And a Princeton economics professor named Ben Bernanke put forth the proposition that, central banks may not know how to target so-called intermediate variables such as money supply with precision, they should get to the bottom line and target inflation. .
While inflation is everywhere and at all time a monetary phenomenon, as Milton Friedman taught, unemployment is the product of many economic forces. It is not simply the inverse of the price level, as the so-called Phillips Curve would posit. A little inflation won’t lower unemployment permanently as wages rise to meet higher prices and allow workers to catch up, leaving them on a proverbial treadmill.
Yet the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday reaffirmed its policy to continue to purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities from federal agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, continue to swap $45 billion of long-term Treasury securities for shorter-term holdings, and to keep its key short-term policy interest rate near zero through mid-2015, where it’s been since late 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis.
Somehow, three decades ago the Fed said the money supply was beyond its grasp; now it says it will target the unemployment rate. As if the decision to hire hinged on the cost or the availability of credit when businesses show little inclination to borrow. Cheap money can’t overcome the hurdles of uncertainties about taxes and regulations, which entrepreneurs readily say are their main concerns.
The Fed’s efforts are mainly evident in the housing market, not surprisingly since it is the sector the that caused the economy’s near-collapse and is the central bank’s focus as the most credit-sensitive part of the economy. Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported new-home sales rose again, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 units, some 27% higher than a year ago.
Housing will provide a positive for third-quarter gross domestic product growth, due to be reported Friday, instead of being a drain. Whether there is a durable recovery is open to question.
Housing analysts point to the backlog of foreclosures that finally is being cleared, which opens up the prospect of more home building, and with it jobs for builders and suppliers. And it can’t be denied the foreclosed properties being snapped up by investors and opportunistic home buyers invariably need fixing up, which has been a boon for the likes of Home Depot (ticker: HD) and Lowe’s (LOW.)
What’s not mentioned are the 10.2 million houses that are worth still less than the mortgages attached to them, according to Zillow.com’s reckoning at the end of the third quarter. While that’s down from over 11 million a year earlier, it still represents a lot of potential supply of homes that are likely to hit the market.
These are houses owned by Americans who did the right thing, meeting their mortgage obligations even though it economically disadvantageous. Moreover, they couldn’t sell their house without writing a check for the difference between the house’s price and the loan balance.
Higher property prices are closing that gap. While distressed sales are down, I see more homes up for sale now that market conditions have improved by owners who didn’t have to sell into a bear market. As any market technician will tell you, there can be overhead supply for sale once prices recover from a plunge. Amateur stock punters will wait until they get even to sell out; so it is with many homeowners.
For homeowners who got in near the top in the middle of the last decade, any chance to walk away will likely be taken. Remember, they had relatively little skin in the game given the tiny down payments required then.
Meanwhile, homeowners who bought years ago and are sitting on big profits and relatively limited mortgages — such as Baby Boomers looking to retire — may well see now as a propitious time, in traders’ parlance, to hit the bid (to accept the price offered by a prospective buyer.)
The Fed’s game plan appears to be to pump up the asset markets, both stocks and housing, in order to bring down unemployment. Whether that pays off remains to be seen.
Mount Kisco NY Real Estate | New home sales shoot up 5.7% in September
New single-family home sales rose 5.7% from August to September, with 389,000 homes sold last month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
That is up from 368,000 sales in August and 27.1% above year ago levels when only 306,000 units were sold.
The median sales price of a home in September hit $242,400 while the average price hovered at $292,400.
“September’s rise in new home sales is another sign that homebuyers are becoming more willing and more able to splash out on a new home,” research firm Capital Economics said in response to the report.
The number of new homes for sale at the end of September reached 145,000, which reflects a 4.5-month supply of homes at today’s sales pace.
Econoday called the jump in home sales the best annual rate increase since mid-2010 when the market was still benefitting from homebuyer tax credits.
“September’s gain is convincing and is led, with a 16.8% jump, by the South which is far larger than all other regions combined,” Econoday said. “Supply, at 4.5 months for the lowest reading since 2005, is very tight and is limiting sales.”
North Salem NY Real Estate | Mortgage applications down 12%, rates edge up
The number of mortgage applications filed by potential homebuyers and refinancing borrowers fell 12% for the week ending October 19, an industry trade group said.
The steep drop is attributed to an upward adjustment made a week earlier to account for the Columbus Day holiday, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. When reviewing the numbers on an unadjusted basis, applications fell 2%.
The MBA noted that refinancing activity declined 13% from the previous week while home purchase applications fell 8%. The trend of slowdowns is expected to continue.
The MBA is warning it expects to see $1.3 trillion in mortgage originations during 2013. This is down more than 25% from its revised estimation of $1.7 trillion in 2012.
As applications declined, rates went up with the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage on a conforming loan increasing to 3.63% from 3.57%.
The 30-year jumbo FRM also grew to 3.85% from 3.81% last week.
The 30-year, FRM backed by FHA edged up to 3.41% from 3.34%, while the average 15-year, FRM hit 2.96% from 2.87% last week.
The 5/1 ARM also grew to 2.72% from 2.59%.
via housingwire.com
Great Recession creates 4.8 million renters | Waccabuc NY Real Estate
The United States added 4.8 million renters in the past six years while losing 1.7 million owner households as the dynamics of the real estate space changed in the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The market experienced additional changes in the first nine months of 2012, creating unexpected outcomes in the housing finance sector, prompting the MBA to alter its forecast for 2012.
In brief, the MBA revised its estimate for 2012 mortgage originations to $1.7 trillion, up from $1.4 trillion a year earlier. Still, the trade group predicts total originations will taper off to $1.3 trillion in 2013, eventually hitting $1.1 trillion in 2014. However, mortgage rates are expected to hover below 4% through the mid-part of next year.
The MBA expects gross domestic product will inch up from 1.6% in 2012 to 2% in 2013. Meanwhile, the forecast suggests existing home sales will increase from 4.6 million in 2012 to approximately 4.78 million next year.
Still, economic growth is contingent on government tax policies and at least a temporary avoidance of the fiscal cliff in early 2013.
“The tax increase in particular would be devastating to economic growth,” said MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann. “We believe that the entire package of tax increases and spending cuts, if left unaltered, would cut 3.5 to 4 percentage points from our growth forecast.”
Another outlier is the final definition of the qualified mortgage rule from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which will define what type of mortgage qualifies as safe from repurchase risk in cases of default. It’s unknown whether the final rule from CFPB, which is due out in January, will contain a safe harbor provision to protect lenders from buy back risk if they follow the guidelines.
These forecasts are based on the idea that QM comes in with a safe harbor and legislatures get past the fiscal cliff without dramatic spending and tax changes, said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA vice president of research and economics.
If the nation moves past the QM rule and the fiscal cliff without the introduction of new risks, the MBA expects moderate economic growth and an uptick in home prices annually from roughly 1.2% in 2012 to 3.5% in 2013.
via housingwire.com
New Home Sales in September | South Salem NY Real Estate
Cross River NY reads Employment Rate | Cross River NY Real Estate
Content Marketing and Strategy | Katonah NY Real Estate
Last week I gave a lecture to Estonian Business School MBA students. The lecture topic is Content and Strategy and it gives an overview how to use blogs, content and social media to drive business results for your brand.
The key points of the lecture are:
Goals (measurable user actions)
- Marketing models (consistency, predictability, and repeatability)
- Target group
- Content strategy (what do you have to offer)
- Participation rate
- Types of content
- Best practices
- Max strategy of content distribution
- Basics of on page SEO
- Content planning
- Keyword research
- Promoting content
- Engaging target audience
- Social media bomb
- Link building
- Driving conversions
- Distributing content to your blogs and social media sites
- Planning resources (people, time, money)
- Measuring results (and ROI in socia media)
via dreamgrow.com



Goals (measurable user actions)