Daily Archives: May 16, 2012

Armonk NY Real Estate News | Is There Really a Housing Shortage?

It may be hard to believe, but the dramatic drawdown in inventories during this spring buying season is bringing some cries of “housing shortage” from hotter markets around the county. But is there solid evidence to support such a claim?

On Realtor.com, year-over-year inventories are down 21.48 percent through March. NAR reports first quarter inventories existing homes are down 21.8 percent nationally. At the end of the first quarter there were 2.37 million existing homes available for sale, a 41 percent decline since the summer of 2007 when inventories set a record of 4.04 million homes.

“We now have broad shortages of lower priced homes in much of the country, with very tight supply in Western states for homes through the middle price ranges. This is good news for many sellers who wish to list now, or for those waiting for prices to improve,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist last week.

Reports of multiple bids, price increases, slim pickings and discouraged buyers leaving the market are popping up in in a few markets, largely the nation’s hottest markets where inventory declines exceed the national averages but also major foreclosure centers like Phoenix where have been falling until recently. In others, unique local conditions such as the opening of factories or military facilities, natural gas booms in Pennsylvania and North Dakota, and seasonal shortages in university communities are causing market tightness.

In the Washington DC market, perennially one of the top ten nationally in price increases, evidence is strongest that the pendulum may be shifting towards a seller’s market for the first time in five years.

“Even though there’s a glut of homes throughout parts of the country, the Washington region seems to have the opposite problem, especially in the lower price ranges.

“Many of the outer suburbs still have plenty of houses in the lower price ranges. But less-expensive homes are very hard to find closer to central D.C.: 68 percent of homes offered for less than $350,000 are located in the outer suburbs beyond Montgomery County, Arlington and Alexandria. In the District, Redfin counts only 862 listings for less than $350,000,” reported the Washington Post May 4.

California markets like San Diego and Irvine where home building has been at a virtual standstill and is strictly controlled, population growth is creating new demand for housing.

“We’re going to grow by a million people, over that period of time. And that represents a demand of over a quarter million units of housing or more. And we have to supply them as an industry. What’s going to change is what we supply and where we build,” San Diego developer Gary London, president of the London Group Realty Advisers, recently told KPBS radio.

Most reports from Realtors reporting tight markets around the nation on the ActiveRain website focus on difficulties finding affordably priced, entry-level homes.

“Thinking of buying a home in Spring Lake (NJ) in the entry level pricepoint? Your choices are extremely limited this Spring season. Currently, there are only 6 active listings in this pricepoint,” reports Diane Glander of Diane Turton Realtors.

“This morning I was taking look at some of our local housing statistics. The first very noticeable thing is that the number of single family homes for sale in Palm Coast now stands 844. When I first began selling home in Palm Coast in 2007 there were over 3,000 home for sale. The current inventory of salt water canal homes in Palm Coast now stands at 89. This is down from 150 just two years ago,” reports Kendall Caputo of Real Living/ Palm West Home Realty.

“Inventory increasing at a pace roughly a month earlier than normal. We are seeing signs of a housing shortage with phone calls and emails from agents looking for specific criteria which are not found on the MLS. This is a phenomenon not seen since 2007. Extraordinarily encouraging,” reports Tim Moncrief of Austin.

“We are starting to see some real strong areas and price points in the hottest neighborhoods and areas of Atlanta – Buckhead, Sandy Spring and East Cobb real estate markets for 2012. All have been highly desirable areas for schools, area amenities and location. So, not surprising that Buckhead, Sandy Springs, East Cobb Real Estate would be the first to improve. Having said that, homes in these area run the full gamut of pricing and it’s at their lower price points – below 750k and below 1Million that we are seeing more of a recovery,” Michelle Francis, Buckhead Atlanta Homes for Sale & Lease.

Even Phoenix, where the Case-Shiller Home Price Index lost more than half its value from 2006 to 2010, is experiencing tighter conditions. Since January, Mike Orr, director of the Arizona State University Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice, has been predicting a housing shortage in the Phoenix market, especially in the crunch is expected to be more pronounced in the East Valley, where some subdivisions are approaching build-out and other builders are raising prices.

A growing demand and shrinking supply has driven home prices up in recent months, he said. Orr thinks that’s gone unnoticed to people who will enter the market this spring, in what is typically the peak time for sales activity.

In fact, in February the supply of houses for sale in Phoenix was down 42 percent compared to the year before. Some Realtors in Maricopa and Pinal counties are starting to call around to ask people whether they would consider selling homes in desirable neighborhoods. “Supply is tight, in a pretty extreme way, and it looks likely to stay that way for months, Orr told KPHO news in March.

“They’re going to be surprised that it’s so hard to buy a house. They’ve been hearing for so long that there’s a glut of homes,” Orr said. “They’ll go out and find there’s not a lot to choose from and every time they bid, there’ll be three or four other offers.”

Inventories Improve Outlook for Hard-hit Markets | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate

Pro Teck Valuation Services’ May HomeValueForecast.com Update has some good news for many metro areas hardest hit by price declines may be recovering due to increasing home sales and reduced inventories of homes, including Midwestern Rust Belt markets like Detroit, Peoria, and Troy, MI.

“One of the most important developments in the past year for the residential real estate market has been the significant decline in the inventory of homes for sale. Nationally, the number of homes currently listed are down 21 percent from a year ago,” said Tom O’Grady, president and CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “This month’s HomeValueForecast.com shows that for a number of widely followed markets, the declines in housing stock are even greater.  It’s noteworthy that Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Orlando, and Riverside-San Bernardino, some of the hardest hit metros with regard to price declines since the market peak in 2006, are topping the list.”

O’Grady also reported that nationally, the months of remaining inventory (similar to months’ supply) is 6.3 months and is at the lowest level since 2006.  This indicates that the overall U.S. market is stabilizing according to the monthly update.  “Also, the months of housing inventory (MRI) remaining nationally was at or below the 5 month threshold throughout the 2002 to 2005 period when nationwide home prices were experiencing their largest gains,” he said.

This month’s HomeValueForecast.com included a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by our market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: number of active listings, average listing price, number of sales, average active market time, average sold price, number of foreclosure sales, and number of new listings.

“In May, contrary to other housing reports, the “Rust Belt” states including Michigan and Illinois are seeing positive trends due to significant declines in active listing counts over the past year,” said Michael Sklarz, Principal of Collateral Analytics and contributing author to HomeValueForecast.com.  “This has led to most of these markets having balanced or tight markets based on their Months of Remaining Inventory values.”

May’s top CBSAs include:

Boise City, Nampa, ID

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI

West Palm Beach-Boca Rotan-Boynton Beach, FL

Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI

Peoria, IL

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Salt Lake City, UT

Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, FL

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO

“On the flip side, a high percentage of the bottom-ranked metros are located in the Northeast. All of these locations have double digit Months of Remaining Inventory,” added Sklarz.  “Also, prices in these metros have held up much better since the market peak in 2005-2006 compared to the current top ranked markets.  We believe that the relative rankings in the bottom ranked metros are not offering the same bargains – in terms of compelling prices and high rental yields – as the top ranked ones.”

The bottom CBSAs for May were:

Winston-Salem, NC

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ

Norwich-New London, CT

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

Newark-Union, NJ-PA

Duluth, MN-WI

Nassau-Suffolk, NY

Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY

New Haven-Milford, CT

Highlighting HomeValueForecast.com’s belief that all real estate trends are local, May’s analysis also shows that the West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL CBSA, which is currently in the list of the Top 10 metros is no exception to have experience significant price declines since the market peak in 2005-2006.  According to HomeValueForecast.com, the price peak in this metro occurred in the 4th quarter of 2005 and prices have since declined 52 percent.

“Like any market, bargain prices will bring out buyers – this is clearly happening in the West Palm Beach CBSA,” added Sklarz.  “Nearly all of the important market indicators are showing positive trends on a year-over-year basis including declining inventory, declining market times and less distressed sales activity to name a few.”

Chappaqua NY Real Estate by Robert Paul | Homeowners Insurance Soars 19 Percent

This year homeowners are paying, on average, $128 more per year for new homeowners insurance policies than they were at the beginning of the year. In some states, rates are up as much as 39 percent.

HomeInsurance.com found that homeowners are paying, on average, 19 percent more per year for new homeowners insurance policies than they were at the beginning of the year. Twelve-month home insurance premiums for policies written in December 2011 were $810 nationwide, a $128 increase from January 2011 at $682. HomeInsurance.com’s data represents approximately 15,000 policies sold across the United States with such top-rated carriers as Travelers, Safeco, The Hartford, and ASI/Ark Royal.

Some state premium increases were much higher than the national average. New policies in December 2011 were carrying roughly 29-39 percent higher premiums than those sold a year earlier in Mississippi, Montana and New Mexico.

With the overwhelming increases in 2011, there were some bright spots where policyholders saw lower rates towards the end of 2011 such as Washington D.C., where homeowners were paying about 7 percent less for new policies. Likewise, new policies sold in December 2011 in Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and California decreased in price as compared to earlier in the year when they were 1 to 3 percent higher.

“Rate fluctuations are normal and can be caused by a variety of factors,” said Carlos Lagomarsino, founder of HomeInsurance.com. “The best thing homeowners can do is to comparison shop and ask their agents to qualify them for all eligible discounts, such as a home-auto package, which can provide substantial savings.”

The HomeInsurance.com RateReport is released quarterly and shows average premiums paid by homeowners across the United States for home and auto insurance.