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Daily Archives: December 27, 2012
Top Lenders Clear out Foreclosure Inventories in Non-judicial States | Mt Kisco NY Real Estate
Among the five lenders involved in the National Mortgage Settlement – Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citi and Ally/GMAC – non-judicial pre-foreclosure activity (NOD, NTS) decreased 41 percent in November compared to a year ago, led by Bank of America with a 63 percent decrease and Citi with a 40 percent decrease. Meanwhile judicial pre-foreclosure activity (LIS, NFS) for the five lenders combined increased 26 percent from a year ago, led by Chase with a 114 percent increase and Wells Fargo with a 37 percent increase.
In November, foreclosure activity decreased of 3 percent from October and is down 19 percent from November 2011 – marking the 26th consecutive month with an annual decrease in foreclosure activity, according to RealtyTrac.
“The drop in overall foreclosure activity in November was caused largely by a 71-month low in foreclosure starts for the month, more evidence that we are past the worst of the foreclosure problem brought about by the housing bubble bursting six years ago,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “But foreclosures are continuing to hobble the U.S. housing market as lenders finally seize properties that started the process a year or two ago – and much longer in some cases. We’re likely not completely out of the woods when it comes to foreclosure starts, either, as lenders are still adjusting to new foreclosure ground rules set forth in the National Mortgage Settlement along with various state laws and court rulings.”
Buyers Grow More Worried Over Prices | Cross River NY Homes
Nearly three quarters of potential buyers believe home prices will increase in their neighborhood in the next twelve months, twice as many as in the first quarter.
Despite forecasts that prices will increase less in 2013 than this year, buyers are more concerned by rising prices than the overall economy. Thirty-three percent of buyers listed rising prices as a major concern in the fourth quarter, up from just 23 percent in the third quarter. Meanwhile, 22 percent said they were concerned with a weak economy, down from 27 percent in the third quarter, according to the Redfin Real-Time Homebuyer Survey. From November 30 to December 2, 2012, Redfin surveyed 1,084 active homebuyers who had toured a home with a Redfin agent since August 14.
More Than 70 percent of buyers believe prices will rise next year in their markets. The number of buyers who believe prices are rising shot up even higher in the fourth quarter, although most still expect gains to be modest. Ten percent of respondents expect home prices in their area to “rise a lot” over the next twelve months, the same as last quarter; 61 percent expect prices to “rise a little” an increase of ten percentage points over last quarter. Twenty-one percent expect prices to “stay the same,” 6 percent expect prices to “drop a little,” and less than 1 percent expect prices to “drop a lot.”
A growing number of buyers are planning to buy in order to get out in front of rising prices. Thirty-three percent of respondents indicated rising prices as a motivation for buying now, up from 29 percent in the third quarter and just 19 percent in the first quarter. Not surprisingly, a decreasing number of buyers cited “low home prices” as their reason for buying-just 28 percent in this quarter’s survey, down from 33 percent in the third quarter and 40 percent in the first quarter.
More than half (59 percent) of buyers listed low inventory as their top concern with buying now, consistent with last quarter’s rate. When we asked buyers how low inventory was affecting their home search, nearly half (46 percent) indicated that they have expanded their search to include new areas that they hadn’t previously been considering, while 38% indicated that they would be taking a break until more listings come on the market.
Reduced Immigration and Births Slash Population Forecast | Bedford Hills NY Real Estate
Fifty years from now the US will have 20 million fewer residents than previously forecast, according to the Census Bureau’s new national population projections released last week, which will translate in reduced demand for housing than expected
The bureau’s new projected population of 420.3 million in 2060 is below its previous projection of 439 million for a decade earlier, in 2050. The bureau’s new projected population for 2050 is 399.8 million. The 2060 population figure, which represents a 34 percent increase from the U.S. 2012 population of 314 million, assumes that annual growth will range from just below 2 million to 2.5 million rather than about 3 million to 3.4 million people each year, as previously assumed. The new estimates lowers the Census forecast by 4 percent.
Most of the 39.2 million gap in the total population forecast is due to scaled-back assumptions about the level of new immigration to the U.S. But another notable factor in the lowered population projection was that the bureau also lowered its forecasts for birth levels. Immigration levels have come down since a peak in 2001, and unauthorized immigration began falling around 2007. Birth rates, already decreasing in recent decades, declined sharply after 2007. The Great Recession that began in 2007 has helped to slow immigration and births
In its new projections, the bureau assumes that the U.S. population will gain a total of 41.2 million net new international migrants from 2012-2050. In its 2008 projections through 2050, that number was 65.6 million. As this chart shows, the difference-24.4 million-represents more than 60 percent of the reduction in total U.S. population size for 2050 in the 2012 projections compared with those in 2008.
Not only did the bureau lower the number of new immigrants it expects to arrive, it also changed the way it calculates its immigration forecasts. Instead of using only U.S. data, the bureau incorporated information on population trends in sending countries, which it collects in its International Data Base.
Overall, the projections estimate that net immigration levels will rise to 1.2 million a year in 2060 from 725,000 in 2012. In the new projections, the growth of the foreign-born population increases less and less rapidly over time and virtually levels off by mid-century. In the 2008 projections, annual net immigration was about 1.3 million in 2012 and increased to 2 million in 2048, growing briskly each decade. (Net immigration from abroad includes a small number of people born in the U.S. or its territories, but not enough to affect totals.)
Homeownership Seen Threatening New Apartment Construction | Armonk NY Real Estate
Record housing starts, bolstered by multifamily construction, is a sign that demand may not keep up with capacity and strengthening homeownership will threatening the boom in multifamily construction, according to one of the nation’s leading ratings services.
U.S. home building climbed to the highest level in 19 months during November and last month increased 9.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 from October, the Commerce Department said yesterday. The results were better than forecast. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected housing starts would rise by 0.3% to an annual rate of 630,000.
The increase with most of the increase in housing starts coming from multifamily construction in November was driven by a 25.3 percent increase in multi-family homes with at least two units, a volatile part of the market. Construction of single-family homes, which made up about 65 percent of the market, rose only 2.3 percent.
But the Commerce Department data confirmed Fitch Rating’s expectation that the housing market continues to gain traction, increasing the likelihood of moderating multifamily demand growth. Housing permits, a proxy for future construction, were up 27 percent and 4 percent higher on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis, respectively, for November 2012.
In a report issued last week (”U.S. Equity REITs: The Key Issues for Multifamily”), Fitch estimated that 80 percent of the growth in demand for multifamily properties from 2009-2011 was attributable to the decline in the home ownership rate. Looking forward, Fitch expects decreasing rental affordability and the increasing relative/absolute attractiveness of home ownership will cause multifamily demand and operating fundamentals to more closely track economic growth. Today’s data supports Fitch’s expectation that a recovery in housing is underway.
November Sales of Foreclosures and Short Sales Plunge to Lowest Level in Three Years | Waccabuc NY Real Estate
Distressed homes, foreclosures and short sales, which are sold at a discount and depress home values, have fallen to the lowest levels since 2009 and are still dropping, according to the latest November market reports. Fewer discounted distressed sales contribute to forecasts of improving prices in the new year.
Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 22 percent of November sales (12 percent were foreclosures and 10 percent were short sales), down from 24 percent in October and 29 percent in November 2011. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in November, while short sales were discounted 16 percent, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.
Today the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey said that its HousingPulse Distressed Property Index dropped to its lowest level in three years in November. Just 33.7% of the home purchase transactions tracked last month involved distressed properties. This was down from 41.4 percent a year earlier and from a record-high of 45.6 percent in March 2011.big factor having a positive impact on the housing market, particularly home prices, is a continuing decline in distressed properties.
In California, the total of pre-foreclosures, properties in foreclosure that are scheduled for sale, and bank owned properties (REO)-fell 7.6 percent from October to November and is down 31.8 percent compared to last year. While the November decline in inventory is not an unusual event, the significant decline in foreclosure inventory over the past year has contributed to what some are calling an “inventory crisis” of total homes for sale, reported ForeclosureRadar.
List Prices Flatten Despite Sinking Inventory | Katonah NY Real Estate
Inventories continued to fall in November to record lows and the age of the nation’s listings inventory declined, but asking prices failed to rise as housing markets prepared for their annual wintertime hibernation. The total U.S. for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops dropped to its lowest point since 2007, with 1.674 million units for sale in November, down 16.87 percent compared to a year ago and more than 45 percent below its peak of 3.1 million units in September 2007, when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets. The median age of the inventory was also down by 11.4 percent on a year-over-year basis. The national for-sale inventory in November (1,674,412) decreased (4.69 percent) from what it was in October and was down by 16.87 percent on an annual basis. The large year-over-year decline in inventory is a positive sign that the market may have worked through much of its excess inventory, which should help to bolster housing prices and potentially set the stage for additional growth. The median age of inventory of for-sale listings was 101 days in November, up by 4.12 percent from October, but 11.40 percent below the median age a year ago (November 2011). While the median age of the inventory is highly seasonal, the year-over-year decline is consistent with other data that shows a general tightening of market conditions throughout the year. However, the median list price in November ($189,900) was the same as it was a year ago despite the significant gains observed earlier in the year. The nationwide median list price ($189,900) held steady in November and is essentially unchanged from a year ago. While the gains that accompanied the onset of the 2012 spring home buying season have disappeared at the national level, record-low inventories may prevent a further erosion of list prices in 2013.according to November data from Realtor.com. National data masks pronounced regional differences in the strength of the housing market. Patterns that have been observed throughout the year continued to run their course, as markets that were once the epicenter of the housing crisis continued to strengthen while markets in more industrialized parts of the Midwest and Northeast continued to fall behind. California, Arizona, and Washington markets are ending the year with dramatic declines in their number of for-sale properties, coupled with significant year-over-year list price increases of 10 percent of more. However, markets such as Peoria, Ill.; Fort Wayne, Ind.; and Toledo, Ohio-areas that never experienced a rapid run-up in their housing prices-have experienced median list prices that are down by as much as 10 percent on an annual basis and significantly smaller year-over-year reductions in their for-sale inventories. On a year-over-year basis, the for-sale inventory declined in all but five of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com, while list prices increased in 70 markets, held steady in 30 markets and declined in 46 markets. The number of markets experiencing year-over-year list price declines has increased steadily in recent months, underscoring the continued fragility of many housing markets.
Biggest Losers are Now the Biggest Winners | Pound Ridge Real Estate
Markets that fell hardest during the housing crash five years ago today are racking up the biggest year over year gains as the prices in the nation as a whole through October exceeded analysts’ forecasts.
Housing markets that were on their knees just a year or so ago from foreclosures and low employment today are seeing prides rise much faster than cities that never felt the housing crash, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
Median home prices rose 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in October in the 20-City Composite, out-distancing analysts’ forecasts. Anticipated seasonal weakness appeared as twelve of the 20 cities and both Composites posted monthly declines in home prices in October.
The largest rebound is 24.2 percent in Detroit even though prices there are still about 20% lower than 12 years ago. San Francisco and Phoenix have also rebounded from recent lows by 22.5 percent and 22.1 percent with prices comfortably higher than 12 years ago. The smallest recoveries are in Boston and New York, two cities in the northeast which suffered smaller losses in the housing bust than the Sunbelt or California.
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, called the gains from the bottom markets an indication of the rebound is the underway. “Looking over this report, and considering other data on housing starts and sales, it is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength. Higher year-over-year price gains plus strong performances in the southwest and California, regions that suffered during the housing bust, confirm that housing is now contributing to the economy. Last week’s final revision to third quarter GDP growth showed that housing represented 10% of the growth while accounting for less than 3% of GDP.