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Westchester NY Homes

Is Housing A Bubble In 2013? | North Salem Real Estate

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I’m frequently asked if home prices are a bubble now. There’s certainly reason to wonder. In fact, I get that question a lot. To lay the groundwork, I recently explained what a speculative bubble is. The key is that prices are being bid up substantially by people expecting a short-run gain. Price can rise because of fundamentals, such as greater demand or limited supply. Such price increases are not a bubble. However, fundamental changes can trigger growth, which sometimes leads people to believe the growth will continue, in turn leading to speculative buying.

Look at these home price increases, each calculated over the past 12 months:

Case-Shiller 20-city index:                                          +12.1% FHFA’s House Price Index:                                           +7.3 percent CoreLogic:                                                                         +11.9% Trulia Asking Prices:                                                    +11% New single family home median:                             +7.4% National Association of Realtors existing homes: +12.2%

So do all of these statistics point to a bubble?

Is there good reason for home prices to rise? Sure there is. Look at the underlying demand growth. Population is growing, though slower than in the past. The number of people living in a household has dropped from its peak in 2008. That means we need slightly more houses for a given number of people. Mobile home sales have dropped so sharply that they hardly play a role in national statistics anymore. We need about 1.2 million new housing units per year, on average. Maybe it’s only 1.1 million, but it’s certainly something in that neighborhood. Housing completions last year totaled 650,000 units, far short of our average need.

We managed with low levels of new construction because we entered this era with a large overhang of houses built in the boom. We have now brought that overhang way down. The vacancy rate of non-rental housing peaked at nearly three percent but has dropped to just 1.9 percent. The long-run average is about 1.5, so we’re getting close to normal. For rentals, vacancy is down to 8.2 percent from a high of 11 percent. Average is about seven percent, but there was some drift up to eight percent even in the 1990s.

 

 

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2013/08/13/is-housing-a-bubble-in-2013/

 

Missing New Castle Woman Found Dead In NYC | Chappaqua Homes

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Update: New Castle Town Administrator Penny Paderewski, commenting on Facebook, said that she understood that Susan Feinberg, who had been reported missing, had been found deceased Tuesday. She said that Feinberg’s death was not due to foul play.

NEW CASTLE, N.Y.– The New Castle Police Department called off the missing person alert Tuesday afternoon for a 59-year-old New Castle woman.

Police posted a message reading “The missing person alert issued earlier today for Susan Feinberg has been canceled. Thank you to those who called to provide information.”

A New Castle Police officer told The Daily Voice Feinberg was located in New York City. He would not say what her condition was.

“I can not comment further on that,” Det. Sgt. James Wilson said when asked by The Daily Voice whether she was located alive.

Police issued the alert for Feinberg, who was last seen parking her vehicle at 11 a.m. Aug. 19 at the Chappaqua Train Station, Tuesday.

Check back with The Daily Voice for more information.

 

 

Missing New Castle Woman Found Dead In NYC | The Chappaqua Daily Voice.

Tide of New Foreclosures Soaks Judicial States and Floods Florida | Bedford Real Estate

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After months of decline, foreclosure activity increased in July, led by Florida and six other judicial states where legal procedures delay foreclosure processing.

The top six state foreclosure rates in July were in states with a judicial foreclosure process, although two of those top six states posted decreasing foreclosure activity from a year ago: Ohio (down 18 percent) and Illinois (down 44 percent).

RealtyTrac reported default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions on 130,888 U.S. properties in July, an increase of 2 percent from the 78-month low in June but still down 32 percent from July 2012. The report also shows one in every 1,001 U.S. housing units with a foreclosure filing during the month.

Foreclosure starts increased from the previous month in 26 states and were up from a year ago in 15 states, including Maryland (up 275 percent), Oregon (up 137 percent), New Jersey (up 89 percent), Connecticut (up 37 percent), and New York (up 27 percent).

Bank repossessions increased from the previous month in 29 states and were up from a year ago in 18 states, including Arkansas (up 266 percent), Oklahoma (up 126 percent), Maryland (up 101 percent), New York (up 100 percent), Connecticut (up 67 percent), New Jersey (up 40 percent), and Ohio (up 20 percent).

Among the nation’s 20 largest metropolitan statistical areas, 10 posted increasing foreclosure activity from the previous month and five posted increasing foreclosure activity from a year ago: Baltimore (up 182 percent), Miami (up 58 percent), New York (up 42 percent), Philadelphia (up 11 percent), and Washington, D.C. (up 5 percent).

Nine of the nation’s 10 highest metro foreclosure rates in July were in Florida cities, and five of those nine Florida cities posted increasing foreclosure activity from a year ago.  Florida also led the states in foreclosures for the third consecutive month.

 

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/08

Creative Approaches to Video Storytelling for Brands | Pound Ridge Realtor

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Our first panel at the ReelSEO Video Marketing Summit was called “Creative Storytelling for Brands: Content Strategies that  Resonate.”  It starred Reed Lucas, Director of Channel Management at Channel  Factory, who sponsored the panel, CJ Bruce, founder of New Antics, who moderated.  The  panel included Clayton Talmon de l’Armée, director and video producer at  Salesforce,  Peter Caban, Chairman of Mekanism, Zach Blume, partner and managing director of Portal A, and Chris Gorell Barnes, founder and CEO of Adjust  Your Set.

 

<img  src=”http://i.ytimg.com/vi/QRwZ5ob1KYI/0.jpg” alt=”Creative Approaches to Video  Storytelling for Brands”  title=”0″ />Some highlights (many responses here have been edited and  revised):

On coming up with ideas to produce:

Barnes: How do you get the best ROI…we try to look for  relevance.  Context with the content.  Find a way to get people  talking about the product without overly mentioning the product.  What kind  of problems are keeping your audience awake at night, and does your product  solve that problem?  Creating stories around that.  We try to get our  clients to think more like a publisher, rather than an advertiser.

On whether they use focus groups:

Caban: Definitely not.  When we do comedy and content ,  you just don’t want to see the humor get watered down.  To do it to find an  insight with a demographic you don’t understand, it can be valuable.  So  more for insights, rather than creative.

Clayton: We have a network of chatter that we can get  feedback on.  We’ve got 10,000 employees who can give us feedback, and  we’ll know pretty quickly whether it’s crap or not.  It starts with a small  team, and then we move it up to chatter to figure out whether it’s viable.

On “boring brands” without a real story:

Blume: The first one that comes to mind was a mobile coupon  company.  What we did was make a purposefully over-the-top campaign with  people in a supermarket.  We made a campaign where the tone of the product  didn’t dictate the marketing, but where the marketing redefined the product  itself.

Caban: Yeah, that is interesting…whenever we have a topic  that could be interpreted as “dry,” we try to turn it around and run it the  other way.

Caban mentions a series Mekanism did for GE called “Datalandia:”

 

<img  src=”http://i.ytimg.com/vi/bdidA6Uukxk/0.jpg” alt=”Creative Approaches to Video  Storytelling for Brands”  title=”0″ />Common elements in the most successful videos:

Barnes: The best success we’ve had is when we have a  strategic approach before we shoot.  A lot of people sort of shoot first,  and ask questions later.  Very few brands have a proper video  strategy.  Understand what content you’re going to make, where it’s going  to go, what’s the measurement of success, how is it going to drive the right  ROI.  You need to think about the technology and the content, not taking a  piece of content and hiding it on YouTube.

Clayton: It’s all about story, and as soon as we get to that  point where we find that emotional connection, then we know we’re getting  there.

What storytelling tips would you give this  audience?

Blume: Know your audience.  Another thing is we’ve  created content when we’re not involved with a brand, so we get the chance to  experiment, to test, and to try different things, and to learn from it.

Caban: Internally, I think of about 5 directors who work  with us that are the right natural fit that can crack the code on the tone or  the writing.  Looking at the kind of director or writer will determine if  it’s great.  Many times, checking through their reels will determine who  might be the right fit.

Clayton: Don’t be boring.  We deal with a lot of stiff  business types and we’ll pitch them an idea and they’ll be like, “Are you out of  your mind?” and we say, “Yeah, that’s the point.”

What do you do when a client is stuck on being  conservative?

Clayton: Ultimately, we make two cuts.  Our cut and  their cut.  And oftentimes, they’ll take our cut.

Blume: I think it’s all about getting on the same level at  the beginning of the project.  When a client comes to us, they know what  kind of content we create, which is edgy, fun stuff, so I think it’s about  setting expectations at the beginning.

 

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http://www.reelseo.com/video-storytelling-brands/

 

 

 

Bidding Wars Abate as Markets Stabilize | South Salem Real Estate

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Competition for homes across the U.S. dropped from 68.6 percent in June to 63.3 percent in July. The number of offers facing competition peaked in March at 75.7 percent.

Increasing inventory, rapidly rising home prices and interest rate spikes all contribute to the continuing trend toward a less competitive market. Less measurable market forces such as buyer fatigue and buyers taking summer vacations probably also played a role in this trend.

Budding wars are abating as is in line with other research that points toward the strong sellers’ market beginning to shift toward more balance, giving frustrated home-buyers a bit of relief. Redfin agents report that buyers who have been in the market for even a few months have noticed the change in their favor, the Redfin brokerage reported today.

Redfin agents and analysts are closely monitoring bidding war rates, expecting them to continue their downward trend into the fall. This would be a contrast to last year’s pattern, which saw the market heat up in the autumn months.

The report’s key findings include:

  • As a result of reduced competition, winning offers fell closer to list prices for the second consecutive month. Nationally, the average difference between winning offers and list prices fell to 0.6 percent in July from 0.9 percent in June and 1.4 percent in May.
  • San Diego and Orange County saw the largest decreases in competition, with bidding war rates falling by more than 10 percentage points in July.
  • Washington, D.C.’s bidding war rate saw the smallest decline, falling just 1.2 points in July.
  • Baltimore was the only metro area where bidding wars increased, with an 8.8 percentage point jump in July.

The table below ranks the hottest real estate markets in order of competitiveness.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/08/bidding-wars-abate-as-markets-stabilize/

 

U.K. Inflation Cools, But House Prices Race Ahead | Pound Ridge Homes

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The annual rate of inflation in the U.K. fell in July and is likely to continue cooling, but house prices are heading in the opposite direction, stoking fears of a new housing market bubble.

The Office for National Statistics said annual inflation slowed to 2.8% in July from 2.9% in June, aided by smaller rises in prices for items including airfares and clothing than a year earlier.

Economists said inflation is likely to continue falling this year and next, easing pressure on household budgets that have been squeezed for several years as wage growth has failed to keep pace with price increases.

Slowing inflation should help put a fledgling recovery in the U.K. economy “on a firmer footing,” said Rob Wood, chief U.K. economist at Berenberg Bank.

Economists added the anticipated slowdown in inflation toward the Bank of England’s 2% annual target should help Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney stick with a pledge to keep the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5% until joblessness falls to 7%, unless inflation looks poised to accelerate.

Unemployment averaged 7.8% in the three months to May, and the BOE doesn’t expect unemployment to hit the 7% target until 2016, a sign that it intends to keep British borrowing costs low for another two to three years to support recovery.

Yet even as price pressures in the economy overall are retreating, house prices are rising more sharply and broadly than in more than six years.

In the latest sign of housing market strength, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ monthly house prices balance surged to 36 in July from 21 the previous month, the highest since November 2006 when it reached 42.

The balance is calculated by subtracting the proportion of surveyors reporting house prices falls from those who say prices rose. The rise in the balance indicates that the increase in house prices is becoming sharper and broader based.

While it remains some way below the peak in the series of 68.6 in September 1999, what is striking about the pickup is its speed. After a 32nd straight negative or flat balance in March this year, house price growth has surged sharply in just four months.

 

 

U.K. Inflation Cools, But House Prices Race Ahead – WSJ.com.

Mount Kisco Diner Begins Expansion | Mount Kisco Real Estate

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The Mount Kisco Coach Diner, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s favorite hangout, has begun construction on its expansion.

The diner is adding 1,250 square feet and 13 new parking spaces, along with providing a terrace for outdoor seating.

The project was approved by the planning board earlier this year after the Mount Kisco Village Board approved a zoning change in 2010.

Recently, the Paul Power’s structure, which exists south of the diner, was demolished, which was the first phase of construction.

Harry Georgiou, whose family owns the diner, said it will be much larger and more convenient for customers.

“We wanted to provide more space for clients and a nicer atmosphere,” Georgiou said. “We wanted to modernize the restaurant. It was time to expand.”

Plans for expansion have been in the works for five years. During that time, despite the recession, the diner’s business has remained steady, giving Georgiou confidence expansion was the right idea.

Georgiou’s father, Frank, a Somers resident, purchased the diner 18 years ago. Harry Georgiou, who lives in Queens, said it is in the family’s blood to provide service, hospitality, and good food.

“We’re very meticulous and we have very high standards,” Georgiou said. “We strive for perfection. We strive to the have the best service and the best quality food. We are open 24 hours, so no matter what time you come, you will have a great experience.”

Georgiou said he loves working in Mount Kisco and meeting all the nice people. He said many customers have become part of his family.

The cuisine is thought up by Michael Lombardi, who crafts exotic or unique specials daily, along with his burger of the week. The restaurant has an organic menu and Georgiou recommends the short ribs, prime meats or lobster rolls.

“We’re not your standard diner, we’re an upscale diner,” Georgiou said.

Cuomo, a Mount Kisco resident, named the diner his favorite hangout spot after he was elected governor and regularly stops by when he’s in the area. Singer Rob Thomas also is a regular.

During construction, the restaurant will be closed for two weeks, as it adds new booths, new tables and a new exterior. If all goes according to plan, the restaurant’s expansion will be finished before the new year.

The Mount Kisco Coach Diner has become an institution in the community and Georgiou said they get customers from all over Westchester and even Greenwich and Stamford. Georgiou said many customers from out of state will come via Interstate 684, and come back every year as a tradition.

“We get people from all over,” Georgiou said.

 

 

Mount Kisco Diner Begins Expansion | The Chappaqua Daily Voice.

Southern California home market cools; prices remain flat | Armonk Real Estate

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The red-hot Southern California housing market finally got a dose of cold water.

The region’s median home price in July remained flat from a month earlier, at $385,000, real estate firm DataQuick said Wednesday. The figures followed a record-setting June, when the median price rose 4.6% over the previous month and 28% year-over-year, the highest percentage since DataQuick started tracking the statistic in 1989.

The cooling off came with a surge in the number of sales to an eight-year high, indicating a growing supply of homes that could steady the market after this year’s frenzy. Rising mortgage rates may also have propelled more buyers to close deals, fearful that rates could climb higher, the San Diego research firm said.

“We are slowly moving toward a normalized market,” said Stuart Gabriel, director of UCLA‘s Ziman Center for Real Estate.

The market nonetheless remained strong, with the median price up 25.8% from July 2012.

Prices have risen at a breakneck pace this year with an improving economy, a short supply of homes and heavy investor demand. The gains have frustrated many would-be buyers who found themselves on the losing end of bidding wars and raised questions about whether the market is getting overheated.

Many economists say the increases should moderate as the inventory crunch loosens. Rising prices, many have predicted, will spur new-home construction and lure more sellers into the market.

Rising mortgage rates should also eventually help cool the market. But rate increases could also spur more sales and price increases in the short term, as buyers look to get into the market before rates go up further. Mortgage rates have risen about 1 percentage point since the beginning of May.

Inventory has increased in all six Southern California counties last month from June, according to Realtor.com. Los Angeles County, for instance, saw 7.8% more home listings in July than a month earlier. Orange County inventory rose 8.4% last month.

 

Southern California home market cools; prices remain flat – latimes.com.

With Mortgage Rates In A Holding Pattern, What Will Housing Prices Do? | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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After rising by more than a full percentage point from early May till the end of June, 30-year mortgage rates have more or less leveled off. However, the impact of higher mortgage rates on the housing market is still unknown.

On July 30, the latest figures for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the housing recovery continued in May, and that their 10-city and 20-city composites posted their strongest year-over-year increases since early 2006. However, since those indices represent three-month averages ending in May, the latest figures just barely overlap the rise in mortgage rates. Thus, it is too early to tell what impact higher interest rates will have on home prices.

In part, the relationship between mortgage rates and home prices can be represented on a mortgage calculator. For any given level of monthly payment on a loan calculator, if you increase the mortgage rate the total size of the loan will shrink. That smaller loan size indicates that the lower price point that consumers can afford at that level of payment.

However, there have been several instances historically when home prices have gone up despite rising mortgage rates. Clearly, there must be a factor at work here beyond what you can see on a loan calculator, and that X factor is consumer wealth. If economic growth is improving, then consumers should be getting wealthier and can afford higher mortgage payments. If you increase the amount of the payment you target on a loan calculator, it can offset the impact of rising mortgage rates.

Because of the lag in home-price data, it will only be in the months to come that the impact of higher mortgage rates on the housing market will become apparent. Whether the housing rally can shake off the effects of higher rates depends a great deal on whether the economy starts to pick up any momentum.

Source: https://www.summit-mortgage.com/buying-a-house/.

With Mortgage Rates In A Holding Pattern, What Will Housing Prices Do? – Forbes.

Foreclosure Discounts Fade Away | Bedford Hills Real Estate

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Two years ago, to the delight of investors and the anguish of homeowners, foreclosures regularly sold for 30 percent or more below the price of “normal” homes.  How times have change! Now the foreclosure discount is less than half that amount and still headed south.

The discounts investors receive for buying homes that have languished in default for months, if not years, are what attracted most investors to real estate in the first place.  It was hard to pass up a property priced far below the one next door when all that’s needed to flip it is a little elbow grease and a few visits to Home Depot.  Mouth-watering discounts right down the street enticed thousands into investing

In fact, rehabbing often proved to be more expensive than anticipated, making a healthy foreclosure discount even more essential.  Investors spent an average of average of $15,600 per property fixing up, for a total of $3.9 billion in 2011, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.  As rehab costs have risen over time, foreclosure discounts have gone in the other direction.

Foreclosure discounts, however, were also widely blamed-fairly or unfairly–for lowering home values when appraisers mixed them in with other comparable properties when valuing a home.  This practice was so controversial that it contributed to a two-year long, highly charged re-do of appraisal guidelines and today appraisers are discouraged from using foreclosures as comps.

As the discount has declined, the problem with appraisals is disappearing but investors are facing some tough decisions.  The latest data, from the National Association of Realtors Realtor Confidence Index survey of 3400 plus Realtors suggests that for REOs the discount has fallen to 16 percent average discount to market, while short sales are selling at a 13 percent average discount.  For properties in average or better condition, the discount is now only 11 percent.

According to CoreLogic, when foreclosures and short sales are included with normal sales, home prices are now higher than they would be without distress sales.  Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11 percent in June 2013 compared to June 2012. Including distressed sales, prices increased more, 11.9 percent.

Two factors are causing shrinking foreclosure discounts: declining numbers of foreclosures and rising demand, largely due to large scale purchases of foreclosures by institutional investors, who probably can afford to pay more for properties.  In markets where large institutional investors have been actively buying large numbers of foreclosures, the discount has virtually disappeared.  In the second quarter, REOs and normal homes reached the same sales price in Las Vegas and other markets.

 

 

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/08/foreclosure-discounts-fade-away/