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U.S. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Reveals ‘Modest Optimism’ | Mt Kisco Real Estate

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Industry executives currently have a “modestly optimistic” outlook on the U.S. commercial real estate market, as economic fundamentals show slow yet steady improvement, according to the latest Sentiment Index from The Real Estate Roundtable. However, public policy uncertainties and concerns over a potential rise in interest rates cast doubts on the market’s future.

“Commercial real estate executives are seeing increased interest in transactions outside healthy core markets, but that sliver of good news is mired in anxiety, centered on whether the development of pro-growth policies could fall victim to political gridlock,” says Jeffrey DeBoer, president and CEO of the Real Estate Roundtable.

The company’s survey for the second quarter of 2013 reveals an overall Sentiment Index of 69 – unchanged from the previous quarter and one point lower than in the second quarter of 2012. The overall index score is based on the average of two indices: the Current Conditions Index (which stands at 71, up one point from the previous quarter) and the Future Conditions Index (67, unchanged since the first quarter).

Figures above 50 indicate a positive market trajectory, the Real Estate Roundtable notes. This quarter’s index indicates that senior commercial real estate executives continue to see favorable trends in both values and capital availability in major gateway markets, but remain nervous about how a potential rise in interest rates and political uncertainty could worsen market conditions.

 

 

MortgageOrb: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Forecast Reveals ‘Modest Optimism’.

Housing inventory shortage lifts prices | Katonah NY Real Estate

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The home value forecast from Pro Teck Valuation Services reveals the impact low housing inventory has on home prices, which it calls the sold-to-list price ratio. 

In the May update, the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco and Chicago metro areas are highlighted to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective as well as in current market conditions to best predict home price appreciation in markets. 

“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. 

The sold-to-list price ratio typically fluctuates between 92% and 98%, but can exceed 100% in very hot markets, according to the authors of the home value forecast. 

 

Bedford New York Real Estate | Bedford NY Homes by Robert Paul Realtor » Blog Archive » Housing inventory shortage lifts prices | Katonah NY Real Estate.

Housing inventory shortage lifts prices | Katonah NY Real Estate

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The home value forecast from Pro Teck Valuation Services reveals the impact low housing inventory has on home prices, which it calls the sold-to-list price ratio. 

In the May update, the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco and Chicago metro areas are highlighted to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective as well as in current market conditions to best predict home price appreciation in markets. 

“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. 

The sold-to-list price ratio typically fluctuates between 92% and 98%, but can exceed 100% in very hot markets, according to the authors of the home value forecast. 

“The sold-to-listed price ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices,” added O’Grady. 

The May home value forecast update also provides a listing of the top-10 best and worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. Sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory, days on market, sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity are all indicators of the best and worst markets.

“Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros,” said Michael Sklarz, principal of collateral analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast.

Sklarz added, “Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now.”

“The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to thirteen Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month,” added Sklarz.

 

Housing inventory shortage lifts prices | HousingWire.

Top housing markets for the next five years | Bedford Hills Real Estate

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Business Insider drew on the latest data to identify the best housing markets for the next five years. The top 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q4 2012 and Q4 2017.

Business Insider also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak, to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market.

Click here to visit Business Insider’s list of top housing markets.

Top housing markets for the next five years | HousingWire.

Home values rise 5% for sixth consecutive month | Bedford Real Estate

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For the sixth straight month, home value appreciation was at or exceeded 5%, according to data from Zillow. More specifically, home values rose in April to $158,300. 

Home values jumped 5.2% over year ago levels, Zillow ($59.41 0%)reported, reaching their highest level since June 2004.

A majority of the 365 metros — 55% to be exact — experienced home value appreciation in April from March. Sacramento saw the largest monthly increase, with home values jumping 3.4%. Las Vegas and San Francisco also reported monthly increases of 3% and 2.8%, respectively. 

Looking forward, home values from April 2013 through April 2014 are predicted to rise 4% to approximately $164,648, according to Zillow. This is a drop from the 5.2% annual rate of appreciation reported between April 2012 and April 2013 and indicates a shift in supply and demand in some of the hardest-hit markets. 

“April marks the sixth straight month of annual home value appreciation of 5% or above, the longest such streak since the height of the bubble in 2006. In the short-term, this has been welcome news for homeowners. But in the long-term, this cannot be sustained, and consumers entering the market today should not expect this kind of appreciation to last,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. 

Humphries added, “Overall, we expect home value appreciation to moderate as more supply comes on line over the next year, but in some areas, runaway home value appreciation, combined with expected interest rate hikes in coming years, runs a real risk of pricing out many potential buyers. Home values in these areas will have to flatten or even fall to come back in line.”

Chicago was the only metro that did not experience year-over-year home value increases. More than half of the 30 largest metros covered saw double-digit percentage increases.­

 

 

Home values rise 5% for sixth consecutive month | HousingWire.

Mortgage apps tumble, refis drop to lowest since late March | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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Mortgage applications tumbled this week as refinancing and purchase applications continued their downward trend.

Application volume fell 9.8% from one week earlier for the week ending May 17, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Also posting significant drops, the refinance Index decreased 12% from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted purchase index dropped 3% from one week earlier, the industry trade group said.

“Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March last week, leading to the largest single week drop in refinance applications this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics.

He added, “The refinance index has fallen almost 19% over the past two weeks and is back to its lowest level since late March. Purchase activity declined over the week but is still running about 10% above last year’s pace at this time.”

The refinance share of overall mortgage activity slightly fell to 74% of total applications.

Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity inched up to 5% of all mortgage applications.

The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a conforming loan balance continued to escalate, rising to 3.78% from 3.67%.

Additionally, the average 30-year, FRM with a jumbo loan balance rose to 3.93% from 3.87% compared to a week prior.

The average contract interest rate for the 30-year, FRM backed by the FHA surged to 3.53% compared to 3.43% the previous week.

The 5/1 ARM squeaked up to 2.60% from 2.55%, and the 15-year, FRM jumped to 2.96% from 2.88.

 

Mortgage apps tumble, refis drop to lowest since late March | HousingWire.

Ratio of Sold to List Prices Shows Inventory Shortages Driving Price Hikes | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

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The Sold-to-List Price Ratio, one of the leading market indicators for predicting home prices, is helping analysts predict home prices in markets with varying economic condition, shortages of available housing inventory and its impact on home prices. Pro Teck Valuation Services’ May Home Value Forecast (HVF) Update analyzes the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco, and Chicago metro areas to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective and in current market conditions.

“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Aside from anecdotal stories, Home Value Forecast shows that one of the most reliable leading indicators to support this theory is the Sold-To- List Price ratio.”

In May’s Home Value Forecast Update, the authors examine how the ratio of the sold price to the listing price (Sold-to-List Price Ratio) typically fluctuates between 92 percent and 98 percent, but in very hot markets can exceed 100 percent. The update takes a historical look (1978 to 2011) at the Honolulu metro Sold-to-List Price Ratio and the annual percent change in the median condominium sold price.

“The Sold-to-Listed Price Ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices,” added O’Grady.

In addition, the authors highlight quarterly value back to 1994 for the Tucson, AZ single family market and determine that the Sold-to-List Price Ratio exceeded 100 percent during the bubble period in 2006, which was indicative of a very frenzied market. The authors also demonstrate that the indicator moves directly with the market itself and can be a useful tool for determining if a market is “hot” as in San Francisco or in “normal” conditions as in Chicago, where the market could transition to heated conditions in the coming year.

This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.

“Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros,” said Michael Sklarz, Principal of Collateral Analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast. “Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now.”

May’s top CBSAs include:

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN

Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA

Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA

Reno-Sparks, NV

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI

Salt Lake City, UT

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

“The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to thirteen Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month,” added Sklarz.

The bottom CBSAs for May were:

El Paso, TX

Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

Akron, OH

Spokane, WA

Chattanooga, TN-GA

Dayton, OH

Peoria, IL

Baltimore-Towson, MD

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Rochester, NY

Clarksville, TN-KY

About HomeValueForecast.com

 

 

Ratio of Sold to List Prices Shows Inventory Shortages Driving Price Hikes | RealEstateEconomyWatch.com.

Metro-North Trains Should Be Up And Running By Wednesday Morning | Armonk NY Real Estate

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Metro-North Railroad’s New Haven Line is scheduled to be back to normal by Wednesday morning, officials said Monday.

“We are confident that the reconstruction work, inspection and testing will be completed in time for a normal rush hour on Wednesday,” Metro-North President Howard Permut said in a statement Monday evening. “We are grateful for the tireless work of all departments and employees engaged in this huge task.”

Metro-North and the Connecticut Department of Transportation have to rebuild 2,000 feet of track after Friday’s derailment and collision on the Fairfield-Bridgeport border. The agencies also need to restring overhead catenary wires to restore electricity to the rail line and retest the track and the signals before trains can begin running.

Train ridership was way down Monday, with about 750 people riding shuttle trains and buses from towns north of the accident Monday, or about 20 percent of the usual number, Metro-North said. Overall, however, ridership on the New Haven Line was down 20 percent Monday. About 2,700 people total had used the Metro-North bus service by 3 p.m. Monday, it said.

Connecticut’s main highways did not see unusually high traffic Monday, Gov. Dannel Malloy said Monday. The Merritt Parkway’s car load was actually slightly below a typical Monday, while Interstate 95 was slightly slower, he said.

“Suffice it to say, the plan worked,” Transportation Commissioner James Redeker said Monday. “People listened, and we had support systems in place.”

For Tuesday, Metro-North will continue the system it set up for Monday’s commute, with trains running from New Haven to Bridgeport, buses taking commuters from Bridgeport and Fairfield to Westport, and trains running again from Westport to Grand Central. The full schedule and plan is available here.

The state will maintain its same procedures Tuesday morning that it did Monday. State Police and tow crews will be on call during rush hours to clear accidents quickly. The state Emergency Operations System will also be open to help manage the rush-hour commute.

On Sunday evening, Malloy had asked Connecticut residents to telecommute to work if possible, and carpool or vanpool if driving instead of taking the train. He asked commuters to take those same steps again Tuesday.

“This is tremendously good news,” Malloy said of Metro-North’s announcement. “However, this also means that we’re going to have one more day of great difficulty, and that’s tomorrow.”

 

Metro-North Trains Should Be Up And Running By Wednesday Morning | The Bedford Daily Voice.

Make Sure To Vote Tuesday In Bedford | Bedford Corners Real Estate

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Bedford Central School District residents can vote on the district’s $125,057,000 budget for the 2013-2014 and to levy the necessary taxes included, all day Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. in the elementary school serving their attendance area.

The vote will also include a choice of three unopposed Board of Education members: Jennifer Gerken and Suzanne Grant are running for re-election, and newcomer Michael Solomon is the only one running for the third available seat.

 

Make Sure To Vote Tuesday In Bedford | The Bedford Daily Voice.

Housing will reaccelerate economic growth: Fannie Mae | South Salem Real Estate

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The year’s solid economic start faded late in the first quarter, but the recent setback is a temporary one, analysts claim.

The slow in activity is partly due to ongoing fiscal drags, including the budget sequester. However, a modest reacceleration is expected in the second half of this year, as the housing market continues to gain traction, according toFannie Mae’s economic outlook.

Housing is expected to act as a tailwind for the economy throughout the year and into 2014, even though there may be a few hiccups in overall economic activity.

“Our May forecast predicts that the second half of 2013 will be a little stronger than the first half, despite the slowdown during the past couple of months,” Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae.

He added, “Employment numbers are getting better, albeit it at a relatively slow pace, and the April employment picture should help boost consumer sentiment toward the economy overall. However, we continue to keep an eye on potential headwinds to our forecast, including the long-term effects of sequestration, spending constraints, the sovereign debt crisis, and the impending debt ceiling.”

Residential investment contributed to economic growth for the eighth consecutive quarter, adding 0.3 percentage points during the first quarter of 2013.

Additionally, the annualized pace of total housing starts in March surpassed the one million market for the first time since the housing crisis, driven solely by a surge in multifamily housing.

Multifamily homebuilding has benefited from a shift in tenure choice over the past several years toward renting, according to Fannie Mae.

For instance, the homeownership rate continued to decline in the first quarter, dropping to 65% — the lowest rate since the third quarter of 1995, the report noted.

By contrast, new single-family home sales rose in March, jumping 51%, which is the biggest gain since the second quarter of 2003.

Despite the robust gain in new home sales in the first quarter, homebuilders’ confidence from the Nation Association of Home Builders’ survey continued to cool in April, declining for the third consecutive month.

 

 

Housing will reaccelerate economic growth: Fannie Mae | HousingWire.