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Is Investing in Housing a Losing Proposition? | Armonk Homes

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Last week two Federal Reserve researchers answered that question with an analysis of returns on investment since 1926 and their findings won’t make the housing industry happy.

If a home is purchased only as an investment and not as a place to live, a comparison of average annual returns clearly shows that though most homeowners make a positive return, investing in equities offers favorable returns more often than investing in housing. That’s the bottom line from Ellyn Terry and Jessica Dill, two economists at the Atlanta Federal Reserve, in a working paper published June 12.

The two researchers set out to answer the questions: With average returns so close to zero, just how often has the housing market produced losers? And how does investing in housing compare to investing in equities? They did not look at the “buy and hold” strategies popular among investors seeking cash flow from rents, but only at appreciation.

They computed the average annual return of home prices across all possible combinations of start and stop points using the Shiller house price series from 1926 to 2012. The distribution depicts returns concentrated around zero with some skewness to the right. Eighty percent of all start-stop point observations experience some degree of positive return.

To take into account the duration of ownership, they assumed that the average homeowner lives in his or her home for 13.3 years, based on analysis by Paul Emrath at the National Association of Home Builders. They found the average annual returns for an asset held for a period of 13 or more years is substantially less volatile than for an asset held for fewer than 13 years, and those investing for the longer term were much more likely to have positive returns.

“We compute that 40 percent of homes owned for less than 13 years have negative average annual returns, compared to 12 percent of homes owned for 13 years or more. Interestingly, while a much greater portion of those owning for 13 or more years obtain positive returns, the average annual return was actually slightly higher for those owning fewer than 13 years (0.95 percent versus 1.03 percent),” they found.

They applied weights for average length of ownership. Using the weights, we recomputed average annual returns across all possible combinations of start and stop points for average length of ownership. The distribution continues to show that returns are concentrated around zero with skewness to the right; two-thirds of all investors in this distribution experience some degree of positive return.

Is Investing in Housing a Losing Proposition? | RealEstateEconomyWatch.com.

Competitive Offers Ease on West Coast | Armonk Real Estate

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Multi-bid offers have declined from 73.3 percent of offers written in April to 69.5 percent of offers written in May by Redfin agents, basically the same as May 2012, when 69.3 percent of Redfin offers went into bidding war. Most Redfin agents are located in West Coast markets.

The market’s easing is likely a result of the substantial monthly increase in inventory seen in April, the Seattle-based brokerage reported in its May 2013 Bidding War Report, which is based on statistics compiled from 2,000 offers written by Redfin agents in May. The number of homes for sale grew 6.4 percent from March 2013, the largest monthly gain since March 2010. Interest rates, which rose slightly in May, could also play a role in the declining demand seen last month.

Despite easing competition, seven out of 10 Redfin offers still faced multiple bids last month, causing homebuyers and their agents to use creative strategies.

Four of the top five most competitive markets were all in California: San Francisco (87.9% of Redfin offers faced bidding wars), Los Angeles (86.1%), Orange County (83.9%) and San Diego (72.6%). Boston rounded out the top five with 68.1% of Redfin offers facing competition.

 

Competitive Offers Ease on West Coast | RealEstateEconomyWatch.com.

Foreclosure Fallout: The Brooklyn Real Estate Market Is Hot, But Tenants Still Suffer Housing Crash Aftershocks | Armonk Homes

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These days, the housing crisis seems a distant memory in many areas of Brooklyn, as buyers arrive at overcrowded open houses in Park Slope and Cobble Hill, ready to sign a contract on the spot and sellers from Red Hook to Greenpoint vie to set new neighborhood records. But the crash and its aftereffects have not vanished from the borough, as the plight of tenants in a trio in Sunset Park buildings illustrates.

While billionaires grapple over ever-loftier trophies, tearing out onyx to install carrara or vice versa, the tenants of 545, 553 and 557 46th Street in Sunset Park are still mired in the foreclosure crisis, living in decaying buildings with 684 housing violations spread over 51 apartments, according to the department of Housing Preservation and Development.

The Sunset Park buildings, like a number of other overleveraged apartment buildings in the city, fell into disrepair when their owners realized that they would not be able to flip the buildings quickly, or at all. The tenants were trapped in a hell not of their own making. In 2011, Astoria Savings Bank foreclosed on the three buildings and sold the note to private equity company Seryl LLC.

But unlike any other distressed assets that can be bought and left to lie fallow until the time is ripe to sell, apartment buildings with tenants in place must be repaired and maintained—a responsibility that numerous politicians and tenants rights’ activists say Seryl has neglected. In January, the buildings entered the HPD’s Alternative Enforcement Program, which targets the 200 most physically distressed buildings in the city to hold the landlords accountable for their repair.

While the market turnaround might be helping homeowners in the tonier precincts of Brooklyn, its impact has yet to be felt in many of the multi-unit buildings that fell into disrepair during the recession. The all-too familiar tale of two Brooklyns? Yes, but when it comes to real estate in New York, no owners needs to be stuck with a property that they can’t afford to maintain. This isn’t Detroit, after all, or the Inland Empire, and recently, residents, tenants advocates, as well as city council speaker Christine Quinn, congresswoman Nydia M. Velázquez and council member Sara M. González rallied to ask Seryl LLC to sell the building to an owner willing or able to make repairs.

“To the landlords who refuse to respect their residents and our community I have only one message: just leave. Brooklyn has no room for delinquent property owners—we have some of the most sought after real estate in the country and it should be no problem for this company—and others like it that refuse to take care of their tenants’ needs—to find a willing and responsible buyer,” Marty Markowitz said in a release asking Seryl to fix the violations or sell.

The only question is whether Brooklyn’s new housing boom will ultimately prove a boon for such tenants or a curse—as any long-term resident of Williamsburg or the East Village can attest, having some of the most sought after real estate in the country does little to safeguard tenants’ rights. In a housing market like New York, low-income tenants suffer in both boom and bust.

 

 

Foreclosure Fallout: The Brooklyn Real Estate Market Is Hot, But Tenants Still Suffer Housing Crash Aftershocks | Observer.

How to Make Your Home a Product | Armonk Real Estate

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GoodbyeMany homeowners have been sitting on the sidelines, stuck in their homes and unable to sell because of low home prices or negative equity. But as the market bounces back in many parts of the country, some sellers are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

If a home sale is in your near future, it’s time to start thinking of your home as a product to be sold on the market. Once for sale, your home becomes less about where you live, where you’ve made memories or have lots of life experiences. And to achieve top dollar, you have to look at your property through the eyes of prospective buyers who will be touring your home. You have to focus on what buyers are looking for.

How is my home a product?

Once you are on the market, your home is the equivalent of a product on the shelf at your home goods or design store. Buyers walking up and down those aisles looking at their options aren’t any different from buyers walking through open houses. Like any product for sale, you want your home to stand out and be as appealing as possible. This means depersonalizing the home, decluttering and doing any improvements that will help show the home in as neutral a light as possible. You want buyers to walk through your home and imagine themselves living there. You don’t want them thinking they’re walking through someone else’s home. Simple things such as taking down photos, religious artifacts and diplomas are a good first step.

Emotionally detaching is step 1

For those homeowners who’ve spent a lifetime in their home, a lot of emotions are attached to it. Even newer homeowners are likely to have become attached to their homes. It could be where you brought home your first-born or where you were living during some major life changes. Deciding to sell the home you love can bring up all kinds of emotional or psychological conflicts.

Awareness is the first step. Know that it’s normal and highly likely that you’ll experience strong feelings about selling your home. Allow yourself to “grieve” if you need to.

Cleaning, painting and staging: The home is ground zero for stress

Most people assume that the hardest part about selling a beloved home is the closing, handing over the keys, or walking out for the last time. Actually, by that time, most sellers have psychologically moved on.

It’s the act of clearing out the clutter, taking out some furniture and/or making small improvements to the home that tugs at the heart. Repainting your favorite pink room to a more neutral color, taking down and packing up your family photos or transforming your comfortable living room into more of a “staged” look can create incredible stress.

When in doubt, don’t do it

If you’re not sure you’re ready to sell or you have the least bit of doubt, don’t do it. Don’t be pressured by your partner, spouse or the “hot” real estate market. As a way to resist the change, a seller will ultimately shoot themselves in the foot by overpricing the home or not making the necessary improvements. If you have the luxury of moving out prior to selling, do it. Moving out, packing up and clearing out will be emotional. But by the time it’s ready to be staged and go on the market, you’ll have emotionally detached from the home. You’ll start to see it as an investment.

Smart sellers understand they’re selling their homes and also making a financial decision. Being able to consider this well in advance will allow you to slowly start to emotionally detach from the home and start thinking of the financial decision and the transaction that’s about to take place. Keeping your eye on the prize, you’ll want to price your home competitively and have it show like a model home to attract the most buyers.

 

How to Make Your Home a Product | Zillow Blog.

Professional Courtesy: Where Did It Go? | Armonk NY Real Estate

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It never ceases to amaze me how REALTORS® can treat each other sometimes. I recently had an experience with a buyer’s agent who could not have been more rude or bullheaded. I never like to talk poorly about anyone as it’s not my nature and I don’t think it’s very professional, but in this case, it may be necessary for today’s lesson. There are loathsome people throughout all walks of life and it’s impossible to avoid all of them. Why though, do some real estate professionals think that being difficult to work with helps anyone? Our primary duty is to provide our client with quality service in a lawful manor. After all, we wouldn’t make it too far without our clients, would we?

Recently, I sold a property that had a cracked septic system. Knowing that replacing this system would be financially impossible for my clients, I opened my bag of saved favors to ensure they would be able to sell their vacant home. I was able to convince one of my best contractors to replace the septic tank for less than cost, (yes, she actually lost money replacing it), as a massive favor for me. With breakneck speed, we obtained the appropriate permits, and the job was done in just a few days. Even so, the buyer’s agent was not impressed, and without going into any detail, was very unprofessional during the entire ordeal. The other agent actually called my favorite contractor to fuss about the pace of the work being done. Meanwhile, this agent called me horrible names and insulted my real estate abilities to my contractor!

The property did end up closing after continued scrutiny from the buying party. My sellers, a married couple who live several hours away, knew nothing of the troubles mentioned or the ugliness of the buying side. All they knew was that I was going to do everything in my power to ensure that the property sold. I ended up calling in a lot of favors and I took a significant loss on my commission. However, my hard work paid off. Since the deal closed, the sellers have referred me additional business, given me marketing space on their website—at no cost—and called me many times to thank me for all my help!

 

Professional Courtesy: Where Did It Go?.

Google’s Blueprint for Search Domination | Armonk Real Estate

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Do you really think Google would reveal its plans on how they want search to evolve? I sure do. If you don’t believe me just ask Matt Cutts. Or better yet just watch him answering the question below.

Popout

After bypassing the cyborg comments he makes some pretty profound statements that Google should be a “good assistant,” “understand the context,” and “synthesize information.” But more importantly he goes on to say that Google should be able to handle difficult syntax not just by data or knowledge but towards analysis and wisdom. Now what does that mean?

Quick Algorithm Recap

In the famous words of Hitch “You can’t know where you’re going until you know where you’ve been,” so to get a better understanding of the future lets back up a few years and look at what Google has done with previous algorithm updates. I am only going to hit on the high points, but if you want to go further I would recommend referencing SEO Moz’s Algorithm History.

  • Florida Update – November 2003
  • Paid Links – October 2007
  • Rel Canonical – February 2009
  • Social Signals – December 2010
  • Panda – February 2011
  • Google Authorship – June 2011
  • Penguin – April 2012
  • Knowledge Graph – May 2012
  • EMD Update – September 2012

Many of the previous algorithm updates and iterations listed were aimed to dismantle spam, technical manipulation, and improving their infrastructure. It took over a decade of progress before Google was even able to begin to tackle the context issue.

Google Authorship and the Knowledge Graph implementation was the catalyst to bring data together in a sensible format. The Knowledge Graph pulls data from reliable sources to show images, descriptions, background information, people involved, and other related information while Google Authorship connects content with a specific author. The Knowledge Graph is even more sophisticated than it would appear at first glance. Bill Slawski at SEO by the Sea has uncovered that the information in knowledge graphs can be dynamic depending on what users are searching for, so not all knowledge graphs are created equal.

                                               

Back to the Present

So what does Matt Cutts mean when he says that search will be going toward analysis and wisdom? The simple answer is Google wants to answer every single question the user has on the very first try and if possible before the user even asks the question.

In an article in the Guardian, Google’s CEO Larry Page said that they are trying to reduce every possible friction between the user, their thoughts, and the information they want to find. He even mentions brain implants to answer questions at the time a thought originates. Maybe Larry and Matt are in cahoots to make us all cyborgs. But I digress…

In order for Google to get to the point where they can answer every possible question a couple of things have to occur. They need to have access to a lot of data and a way to relationally put it together. Part of the data gathering process has already been explained above with Google Authorship and the Knowledge Graph, but lets continue going down the rabbit trail on more sources they are using to get data.

First they have Google Analytics which is installed on millions of websites. Have you ever wondered why Google Analytics is free for up to 10 million pageviews a month? It is the amount of data that is now at their disposal. Google makes it very easy for you to share your data with them. When you’re setting up a Google Analytics account, they have conveniently pre-checked all the data sharing settings for you even though they are technically optional. This data allows them to understand user behavior for individual websites but more importantly for different verticals.

 

Google’s Blueprint for Search Domination | Find and Convert.

Metro-North Trains Should Be Up And Running By Wednesday Morning | Armonk NY Real Estate

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Metro-North Railroad’s New Haven Line is scheduled to be back to normal by Wednesday morning, officials said Monday.

“We are confident that the reconstruction work, inspection and testing will be completed in time for a normal rush hour on Wednesday,” Metro-North President Howard Permut said in a statement Monday evening. “We are grateful for the tireless work of all departments and employees engaged in this huge task.”

Metro-North and the Connecticut Department of Transportation have to rebuild 2,000 feet of track after Friday’s derailment and collision on the Fairfield-Bridgeport border. The agencies also need to restring overhead catenary wires to restore electricity to the rail line and retest the track and the signals before trains can begin running.

Train ridership was way down Monday, with about 750 people riding shuttle trains and buses from towns north of the accident Monday, or about 20 percent of the usual number, Metro-North said. Overall, however, ridership on the New Haven Line was down 20 percent Monday. About 2,700 people total had used the Metro-North bus service by 3 p.m. Monday, it said.

Connecticut’s main highways did not see unusually high traffic Monday, Gov. Dannel Malloy said Monday. The Merritt Parkway’s car load was actually slightly below a typical Monday, while Interstate 95 was slightly slower, he said.

“Suffice it to say, the plan worked,” Transportation Commissioner James Redeker said Monday. “People listened, and we had support systems in place.”

For Tuesday, Metro-North will continue the system it set up for Monday’s commute, with trains running from New Haven to Bridgeport, buses taking commuters from Bridgeport and Fairfield to Westport, and trains running again from Westport to Grand Central. The full schedule and plan is available here.

The state will maintain its same procedures Tuesday morning that it did Monday. State Police and tow crews will be on call during rush hours to clear accidents quickly. The state Emergency Operations System will also be open to help manage the rush-hour commute.

On Sunday evening, Malloy had asked Connecticut residents to telecommute to work if possible, and carpool or vanpool if driving instead of taking the train. He asked commuters to take those same steps again Tuesday.

“This is tremendously good news,” Malloy said of Metro-North’s announcement. “However, this also means that we’re going to have one more day of great difficulty, and that’s tomorrow.”

 

Metro-North Trains Should Be Up And Running By Wednesday Morning | The Bedford Daily Voice.

Lending Standards Loosen Up a Little | Armonk NY Real Estate

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FICO scores for approved mortgage applications in April decreased slightly for the fifth consecutive month as lenders turned their attention to financing buyers during the spring buying season.

Average FICO scores for closed mortgages fell from 749 in January to 743 in March, the steepest decline in the critical measure of creditworthiness since last year at this time. The average loan-to-value ratio for all loans rose slightly from 80 to 81 and the front end/back end debt-to-income ratio was virtually unchanged at 23/35, according to the April Ellie Mae Origination Insight Report released today.

The average time to close a loan fell to 46 days from 48 in March for all loans. Purchase loans took only 44 days to close, on average, down from 47 days in March.

Though standards relaxed slightly, approval rates fell. To get a meaningful view of lender “pull-through,” Ellie Mae reviewed a sampling of loan applications initiated 90 days prior (January 2013 applications) to calculate an overall closing rate of 53.2 percent in April 2013, down from 55.1% in March 2013. The closing rate for all loans fell slightly from 56.8 percent in March to 55.1 percent in April. The average rate in 2012 was 49.0 percent.

“The spring buying season appeared to be in full bloom in April with the percentage of closed purchase loans reaching 42 percent last month, up from 38 percent in March 2013 and 32 percent in February 2013,” said Jonathan Corr, president and chief operating officer of Ellie Mae. “The last time purchase loans broke the 40 percent mark was back in July 2012.” In April 2012, the purchase share was 43 percent, virtually the same as it is today.

“The trend toward more relaxed credit also continued in April 2013 as the average FICO score decreased slightly for the fifth consecutive month to 742 in April 2013 from 743 in March 2013,” added Corr. “Pull-through closing rates dropped slightly last month to 53.2% from 55.1% in March 2013. This may be a reaction to interest rates, which had been climbing for the past five months and then reversed course and fell to 3.808 in April 2013 from 3.813 in March 2013.

 

 

 

Lending Standards Loosen Up a Little | RealEstateEconomyWatch.com.

May 16th week Farmer’s Markets | Armonk NY Real Estate

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Broccoli
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Chicken Livers & Parts
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Squid
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Tips for Finding Affordable Housing in Boston | Armonk Homes

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No matter what neighborhood you reside in, Boston is an expensive city. With so many awesome things to offer, it makes sense that this city is one of the most expensive in the country to live in. Median rent in Boston in 2012 was $1,881 according to aBoston.com article. Finding affordable housing in Boston can be tough, but it’s far from impossible.
Finding affordable housing in Boston definitely takes some time and effort, but it is definitely doable. Just like any city, Boston has affordable apartments, and if you make some living adjustments you can live in many neighborhoods while on a budget. Check out these tips to live affordably in Boston and find affordable housing in the first place.
Search, Search, Search!
In order to find an affordable apartment for your budget, you will need to do a lot of searching. It may take weeks, even months, to find a perfect Bostonian apartment, so start well before your deadline. Check tons of apartment websites like www.bostonpads.com and compare apartment prices in order to find a diamond in the rough.
The more time you spend searching, the better chance you have of finding a good, affordable apartment. Start your search as early as possible for the best results!
Go Neighborhood Specific
If you’re looking for affordable housing in Boston, you’ll need to narrow your search down to neighborhoods you can actually afford. If you spend time looking for an apartment in the Back Bay or Beacon Hill, you’ll likely be wasting your time as you won’t be able to find an apartment you can afford. According to that previously mentioned Boston.com article, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Back Bay rents for $2,857 a month, which is outrageous for many people on a budget.
Focus your search on neighborhoods that are affordable with your budget, which you can figure out by determining how much you can spend. If you’re absolutely set on living in a specific neighborhood but feel like you can’t afford it, you might be able to afford it if you get some roommates. Regardless, you should focus only on places you can afford, so you aren’t wasting a ton of your time.
Try to Live Like a Student
If you’re looking for affordable housing in Boston, you might want to try living like a student. If you live in neighborhoods that are traditionally dominated by students, you will no doubt save money. Allston-Brighton is a gorgeous neighborhood located along the Charles River that caters to students of Boston College, Harvard, and Boston University.
Traditional student neighborhoods also typically have great public transportation options, which means you could save money by not driving a car and instead using public transportation whenever you go out. In some cases, you might find that these traditional student neighborhoods are loud on Friday and Saturday nights because of parties, but if you can handle that then you can save money on an apartment.

 

 

Tips for Finding Affordable Housing in Boston | Armonk Homes | Bedford NY Real Estate | Robert Paul Talks Life in Bedford NY.