Author Archives: Robert Paul

About Robert Paul

Robert is a realtor in Bedford NY. He has been successfully working with buyers and sellers for years. His local area of expertise includes Bedford, Pound Ridge, Armonk, Lewisboro, Chappaqua and Katonah. When you have a local real estate question please call 914-325-5758.

Housing affordability collapses to lowest level on record | Waccabuc Real Estate

Surging home prices and mortgage rates cut housing affordability by 29% over the last year, as measured by the National Association of Realtors.

  • It’s the sharpest year-over-year decline in affordability on record.

Why it matters: The cost of housing is a major source of irritation for the American public after two years of pandemic restrictions and persistent inflation.

A separate report from housing market research firm Black Knight published yesterday shows that the monthly principal and interest payment on an average-priced home, by a buyer who puts 20% down, has gone up by roughly $600 —44% — since the start of the year.

How it works: The drop in affordability is being driven by two components.

  • Surging house prices: One popular gauge of home prices known as the Case-Shiller index showed home prices posting their biggest ever year-on-year gain in March when they rose 20.6%.
  • Surging mortgage rates: Over the last year, the rate for a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has jumped from 3% to more than 5%.

What they’re saying: “Given 2022’s affordability collapse, these [home price appreciation] levels likely are at or near the peaks for this cycle. Key question is how much and how quickly they will decline,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a research note published on Friday.

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axios.com

Residential construction spending up 18.4% | Cross River Real Estate

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending rose 0.9% in April after an increase of 0.7% in March 2022. Spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $891.5 billion. Total private residential construction spending was 18.4% higher than a year ago.

These monthly gains are attributed to the strong growth of spending on improvements. Spending on improvements rose 1.5% in April, after a dip of 0.1% in March, as it was approaching summer, the best time of year to remodel. Single-family construction spending increased to a $477.7 billion annual pace in April, up by 0.5% over the upwardly revised March estimates. Multifamily construction spending rose 0.8% in April, after a decrease of 0.4% in March. Home building is still facing higher interest rates and supply-side headwinds.

The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates construction spending on single-family, multifamily and improvements have slowed down the pace since early 2022 under the pressure of supply-chain issues and elevated interest rates. Before the COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, single-family construction and home improvement experienced solid growth from the second half of 2019 to February 2020, and the quick rebound since July 2020. New multifamily construction spending has picked up the pace after a slowdown in the second half of 2019.

Private nonresidential construction spending decreased to $503.2 billion (SAAR) in April from the upwardly revised March estimates. And it was 10.1% higher than a year ago. The largest month-over-month nonresidential spending increase was made by the class of power ($1.6 billion), followed by transportation ($0.8 billion), and class of health care ($0.35 billion).

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eyeonhousing.org

Case Shiller home prices up 20.6% | Katonah Real Estate

National home prices grew at an unsustainable pace in March, reaching an all-time high. This indicates that the imbalanced market with strong demand and record-low inventory continued to put upward pressures on home prices. However, keep in mind this is a backward-looking reading.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 28.2% in March 2022, following a 27.4% increase in February. National home prices are now 60.7% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in March 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 20.6% annual gain in March, after a 20.0% increase in February. The year-over-year home price appreciation slowed a little during the last quarter of 2021, and accelerated in the first three months of 2022, before the spring home-buying season from April to June.

Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19.0% in March, following a 25.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 19.0% in March, following a 19.4% increase in February.

In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P CoreLogic reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in March. All 20 metro areas reported positive home price appreciation and their annual growth rates ranged from 8.8% to 57.1%. Among all 20 metro areas, fifteen metro areas exceeded the national average of 28.2%. Dallas led the way with a 57.1% increase, followed by Tampa with a 49.9% increase and Seattle with a 49.2% increase.

The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in February and in March 2022. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in February; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in March. Seven out of the 20 metro areas had a deceleration in home price growth, including Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Portland, and Seattle.

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eyeonhousing.org

NAR reports pending home sales transactions fell 9.1% YoY | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Key Highlights

  • Pending sales slid for the sixth consecutive month, down 3.9% in April from March.
  • Pending sales rose in the Midwest and fell in the other three regions.
  • Compared to the prior year, pending sales dropped for the eleventh consecutive month, with a 9.1% year-over-year drop and a decline in all regions.
PHS April 2022

See and share this infographic.

WASHINGTON (May 26, 2022) – Pending home sales slipped in April, as contract activity decreased for the sixth consecutive month, the National Association of Realtors® reported. Only the Midwest region saw signings increase month-over-month, while the other three major regions reported declines. Each of the four regions registered a drop in year-over-year contract activity.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slid 3.9% to 99.3 in April. Year-over-year, transactions fell 9.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Pending contracts are telling, as they better reflect the timelier impact from higher mortgage rates than do closings,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The latest contract signings mark six consecutive months of declines and are at the slowest pace in nearly a decade.”

With mortgage rates rising, Yun forecasts existing-home sales to wane by 9% in 2022 and home price appreciation to moderate to 5% by year’s end.

“The escalating mortgage rates have bumped up the cost of purchasing a home by more than 25% from a year ago, while steeper home prices are adding another 15% to that figure.”

In some cases, these higher rates increase mortgage payments by as much as $500 per month. Yun notes that such price hikes are already a burden, but they become even more problematic to a family on a budget contending with rapid inflation, including surging fuel and food costs.

“The vast majority of homeowners are enjoying huge wealth gains and are not under financial stress with their home as a result of having locked into historically low interest rates, or because they are not carrying a mortgage,” Yun explained. “However – in this present market – potential homebuyers are challenged and thus may attempt to mitigate the rising cost of ownership by opting for a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage or by widening their geographic search area to more affordable regions.”

Yun cites that more work-from-home opportunities have allowed would-be buyers to expand their home search.

There are scenarios in which the market soon improves for buyers, as well, according to Yun.

“If mortgage rates stabilize roughly at the current level of 5.3% and job gains continue, home sales could also stabilize in the coming months,” Yun said. “Home sales in 2022 are expected to be down about 9%, and if mortgage rates climb to 6%, then the sales activity could fall by 15%.

“Home prices in the meantime appear in no danger of any meaningful decline,” he continued. “There is an ongoing housing shortage, and properly listed homes are still selling swiftly – generally seeing a contract signed within a month.”

April Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI fell 16.20% to 74.8 in April, a 14.3% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index rose 6.6% to 100.7 last month, down 2.8% from April 2021.

Pending home sales transactions in the South dipped 4.7% to an index of 119.0 in April, down 10.3% from April 2021. The index in the West slipped 4.3% in April to 85.9, a 10.5% decrease from a year prior.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.

The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for May will be reported June 21. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be June 27; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

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nar.realtor/newsroom/

New home sales down 26% | Bedford Real Estate

In a further sign of a housing slowdown, new home sales posted a double-digit percentage decline in April, falling to their weakest pace in two years, as rising mortgage interest rates and worsening affordability conditions continue to take a toll on the housing market.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in April fell 16.6% to a 591,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised reading in March, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 26.9% compared to April 2021.

“The volume of signed sales contracts significantly declined in April as the cost of purchasing a home increased in 2022 as interest rates surged higher,” said Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “Higher construction costs fueled by rising material prices and supply-side constraints along with limited existing home inventory are pricing many potential home buyers out of the market.”

In another indicator that deteriorating affordability conditions are particularly hurting the entry-level market, a year ago, 25% of new home sales were priced below $300,000, while in April this share fell to just 10%.

“The April drop for new home sales is a clear recession warning,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The median price of a newly-built single-family home increased 19.7% year-over-year. The combination of higher prices and increased interest rates are generating a notable slowing of the housing market. While the nation needs additional housing, home sales are slackening as tightening monetary policy continues to put upward pressure on mortgage rates and supply chain disruptions raise construction costs.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the April reading of 591,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. 

In an indication that builders will be slowing construction, new single-family home inventory jumped to a 9 months’ supply, up 40% over last year, with 444,000 available for sale. However, just 38,000 of those are completed and ready to occupy.

The median sales price rose to $450,600 in April from $435,000 in March and is up more than 19% compared to a year ago, due primarily to higher development costs, including materials.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in three regions, down 16.8% in the Midwest, 19.3% in the South and 0.6% in the West. New home sales were up 6.5% in the Northeast.

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nahb.org

NAR reports existing home sales drop 5.9% YoY | Pound Ridge Real Estate

  • Existing-home sales fell for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million. Sales were down 2.4% from the prior month and 5.9% from one year ago. 
  • With slower demand, the inventory of unsold existing homes climbed to 1.03 million by the end of April, or the equivalent of 2.2 months of the monthly sales pace.
  • The median existing-home sales price increased at a slower year-over-year pace of 14.8% to $391,200.

Existing-home sales recorded a third straight month of declines, slipping slightly in April, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month sales were split amongst the four major U.S. regions, with two areas posting gains and the other two experiencing waning in April. Year-over-year sales struggled, as each of the four regions reported dips.

Total existing-home sales,[i] https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slid 2.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in April. Year-over-year, sales dropped 5.9% (5.96 million in April 2021).

“Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.”

Total housing inventory[ii] at the end of April amounted to 1,030,000 units, up 10.8% from March and down 10.4% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 1.9 months in March and down from 2.3 months in April 2021.

“Housing supply has started to improve, albeit at an extremely sluggish pace,” said Yun.

He also noted the rare state of the current marketplace.

“The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,” said Yun.

“Moreover, an increasing number of buyers with short tenure expectations could opt for 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages, thereby assuring fixed payments over five years because of the rate reset,” he added. “The cash buyers, not impacted by mortgage rate changes, remain elevated.”

The median existing-home price[iii] for all housing types in April was $391,200, up 14.8% from April 2021 ($340,700), as prices increased in each region. This marks 122 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in April, equal to both the number of days in March 2022 and in April 2021. Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in April 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in April, down from 30% in March and from 31% in April 2021. NAR’s 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 2021[iv] – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in April, down from 28% in March and up from the 25% recorded in April 2021.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in April, down from 18% in March and equal to 17% in April 2021.

Distressed sales[v] – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in April, equal to the percentage seen in March and down from 2% in April 2021.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.98% in April, up from 4.17% in March. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.

Realtor.com®‘s Market Trends Report in April shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+38.3%), Las Vegas (+32.6%), and Orlando (+30.7%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+6.8 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+5.3 percentage points) and Sacramento (+4.7 percentage points).

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million in April, down 2.5% from 5.12 million in March and down 4.8% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $397,600 in April, up 14.8% from April 2021.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in April, down 1.6% from March and down 13.9% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $340,000 in April, an annual increase of 13.1%.

“As we find ourselves in the midst of a massive housing shortage, NAR continues to work with leaders across the private and public sectors to help close this deficit,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a Realtor® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas. “As the nation’s largest real estate association, we are urging policymakers to enact zoning reforms, homebuilder incentives, and other necessary regulations to help correct this situation.”

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 1.5% in April, reaching an annual rate of 670,000, a 10.7% drop from April 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $412,100, up 8.1% from one year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest grew 3.1% from the prior month to an annual rate of 1,310,000 in April, a 1.5% slide from April 2021. The median price in the Midwest was $282,000, an 8.7% increase from one year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South fell 4.6% in April, posting an annual rate of 2,490,000, which represents a decrease of 5.7% from one year ago. The median price in the South was $352,100, a 22.2% climb from one year prior. For the eighth consecutive month, the South recorded the highest pace of price appreciation in comparison to the other three regions. Additionally, the South is the only region to report year-over-year double-digit price gains.

Existing-home sales in the West dipped 5.8% compared to the previous month, registering an annual rate of 1,140,000 in April, down 8.1% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $523,000, up 4.3% from April 2021.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services (MLS). Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.

NOTE: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for April is scheduled for release on May 26, and Existing-Home Sales for May will be released on June 21; release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Information about NAR is available at www.nar.realtor. This and other news releases are posted on the NAR Newsroom at www.nar.realtor/newsroom. Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and surveys, are posted in the “Research and Statistics” tab.


[i] Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR benchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

[ii] Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

[iii] The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

[iv] Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. Investors are under-represented in the annual study because survey questionnaires are mailed to the addresses of the property purchased and generally are not returned by absentee owners. Results include both new and existing homes.

[v] Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.

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https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/05/19/2447085/0/en/Existing-Home-Sales-Retract-2-4-in-April.html

Mortgage rates average 5.25% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

 Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey ®(PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.25 percent.

“Economic uncertainty is causing mortgage rate volatility,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As a result, purchase demand is waning, and homebuilder sentiment has dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years. Builders are also dealing with rising costs, meaning this posture is likely to continue.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.25 percent with an average 0.9 point as of May 19, 2022, down from last week when it averaged 5.30 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.00 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.43 percent with an average 0.9 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.48 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.29 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.2 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.59 percent.

The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.

Housing construction activity declines, mortgage applications fall | Chappaqua Real Estate

Housing starts (chart) for April dipped 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) to an annual pace of 1,724,000 units, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 1,756,000 unit pace, and compared to March’s downwardly-revised pace of 1,728,000 units. Building permits, one of the leading indicators tracked by the Conference Board as it is a gauge of future construction, fell by 3.2% m/m to an annual rate of 1,819,000, slightly above expectations calling for 1,814,000 units, and compared to the downwardly-revised 1,870,000 unit pace in March.

In other housing news, the MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 11.0% last week, following the prior week’s increase of 2.0%. The index snapped a string of two weekly increases as a 9.5% fall in the Refinance Index was met with an 11.9% tumble for the Purchase Index. However, the average 30-year mortgage rate pulled back from a recent spike, declining 4 basis points (bps) to 5.49%, but is up 234 bps versus a year ago.

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schwab.com

Home Builders Warn of Significant Affordability Declines | Armonk Real Estate

Housing affordability posted a modest gain for average conditions in the first quarter of 2022 as a strong jump in national median income helped to offset a gradual rise in interest rates. However, home builders warn of current deteriorating conditions as a sharp jump in mortgage rates in March and April coupled with ongoing building material supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and high inflation drive up housing costs.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), 56.9% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of January and end of March were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $90,000. While this is up from the 54.2% of homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2021, current market indicators point to worsening affordability conditions.

The first quarter HOI was calculated based on the following key factors:

  • An average quarterly interest rate of 3.86%, up 70 basis points from the previous quarter
  • A 2022 median income of $90,000, up from last year’s $79,900.
  • A national median home price of $365,000, up $5,000 from the fourth quarter of 2021 and a whopping $45,000 from the first quarter of 2021.

Affordability Dips Below 50% Based on Recent Mortgage Rates

Keeping all other factors the same and calculating nationwide affordability conditions based on end of April mortgage rates of 5.11% instead of the first quarter average of 3.86%, the HOI would have fallen from 54.2 in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 48.7 today.

This means that based on where the housing market stands today, just 48.7% of homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to median-income families, the lowest affordability level recorded on the HOI since the beginning of the revised series in the first quarter of 2012.

“The first quarter reading is a backward gauge, as surging interest rates, ongoing building material supply chain constraints and labor shortages continue to raise construction costs and put upward pressure on home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga.

Every quarter-point hike in mortgage rates means that 1.3 million households are priced out of the market for a nationwide median priced home. And with the Federal Reserve moving aggressively to raise short-term interest rates and reduce its holding of mortgage-backed securities to combat inflation that is running at a 40-year high, mortgage rates are expected to rise even further.

“Looking at current market conditions, affordability woes continue to mount as rising interest rates and home building material costs that are up 20% year-over-year are causing housing costs to rise much faster than wages,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The HOI falling below 50 using these real-time estimates is an indication of significant housing affordability burdens, particularly for frustrated, prospective first-time buyers. The best way to ease growing affordability challenges is for policymakers to address ongoing supply chain disruptions that will allow builders to construct more affordable homes.”

The Most and Least Affordable Markets in the First Quarter

Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., was the nation’s most affordable major housing market, defined as a metro with a population of at least 500,000. There, 92.3% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $89,500.

Top five affordable major housing markets:

  1. Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.
  2. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.
  3. ScrantonWilkes-Barre, Pa.
  4. Rochester, N.Y.
  5. Dayton-Kettering, Ohio

Meanwhile, Wheeling, W.Va.-Ohio., was rated the nation’s most affordable small market, with 97.3% of homes sold in the first quarter being affordable to families earning the median income of $75,400.

Top five affordable small housing markets:

  1. Wheeling, W.Va.-Ohio
  2. Cumberland, Md.-W.Va.
  3. Elmira, N.Y.
  4. Utica-Rome, N.Y.
  5. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill.

For the sixth straight quarter, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., remained the nation’s least affordable major housing market. There, just 8.3% of the homes sold during the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $90,100.

Top five least affordable major housing markets—all located in California:

  1. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale
  2. Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine
  3. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City
  4. San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad
  5. Stockton

The top five least affordable small housing markets were also in the Golden State. At the very bottom of the affordability chart was Salinas, Calif., where 9.2% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $90,100.

Top five least affordable small housing markets—all located in California:

  1. Salinas
  2. Santa Maria-Santa Barbara
  3. San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles
  4. Napa
  5. Santa Cruz-Watsonville

Please visit nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.

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nahb.org

Building materials prices up 19% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

According to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prices of goods used in residential construction ex-energy (not seasonally adjusted) climbed 0.5% in April, following upwardly revised increases of 1.9% and 2.4% in March and February, respectively. This adds up to an 4.9% increase in building materials prices since the start of 2022. Year-over-year, building materials prices are up 19.2% and have risen 35.6% since the start of the pandemic.

The price index of services inputs to residential construction registered a similar increase, rising 0.9% in April. However, the index was upwardly revised for March, causing the monthly increase to jump from 3.2% to 6.8% over the month. As a result, the price index of services used in home building (including trade services, transportation and warehousing) has climbed 13.3% since the start of the year. Year-over-year, the index has increased 18.1% and is up 45.6% since the start of the pandemic.

Softwood Lumber

The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) declined 15.6% in April following a downwardly revised 5.4% increase in March and a 2.5% gain in February. As a result, the index is down 8.9% over the first four months of 2022. Since reaching its most recent trough in September 2021, prices have risen 60.4%.

Steel Products

Steel mill products prices (NSA) climbed 2.4% in April–the first monthly increase since December 2021. Nonetheless, the first four months of 2022 have been positive for the cost of derivative steel products after increasing 128.0% in 2021.

Ready-Mix Concrete

The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) resumed its upward trend after a small decline in March (-0.2%) as prices rose 1.3% (SA) in April. The index has climbed 8.9% year-over-year and is 12.6% higher than the January 2021 reading.

Gypsum Products

The PPI for gypsum products (SA) was flat in April. Year-over-year, the prices of gypsum products are 17.8% higher and have increased 23.5% since January 2021.

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