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North Salem Homes for Sale

Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth Exceeds 20% in March | North Salem Real Etate

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through March 2022 and forecasts through March 2023.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sales); home price forecasts and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.

HPI National Change

March 2022 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 20.9% in March 2022 compared with March 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 3.3% in March 2022 compared with February 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 1.2% from March 2022 to April 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 5.9% from March 2022 to March 2023.

 Figure 1 HPI National Change

HPI & Case-Shiller Trends

This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.

Economic Impact on Home Prices

U.S. home prices continued to post significant year-over-year gains in March, up by 20.9%, another record high. Even with the past year’s streak of double-digit price increases, annual gains are projected to slow to around 6% by next March, due in part to rising mortgage rates and higher home prices hampering affordability for some home shoppers. Buyers who closed on a property in March had a good chance of locking in mortgage rates around 4% or slightly lower. By late April, rates had moved up to more than 5%, a jump of about 30% from the same time last year and a trend that might derail more prospective buyers.

Figure 3 Covid Update

“The annual growth in the U.S. index was the largest we have measured in the 45-year history of the CoreLogic Home Price Index,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. Couple that price increase with the rapid rise in mortgage rates and buyer affordability has fallen sharply. In April, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged nearly 2 percentage points higher than one year earlier. With the growth in home prices, that means the monthly principal and interest payment to buy the median-priced home was up about 50% in April compared with last April.”

– Dr. Frank Nothaft 
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

HPI National and State Maps – March 2022

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Nationally, home prices increased 20.9% year over year in March. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (31.4%), Arizona (28.7%) and Tennessee (26.7%).

Figure 4 HPI Change by State Map

HPI Top 10 Metros Change

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

These large cities continued to experience price increases in February, with Phoenix on top at 32.5% year over year.

Figure 5 HPI Top US Metros

Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Prescott, AZ and Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT are also at a very high risk for price declines. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA and Urban Honolulu, HI are at a high risk (50-70%) of a decline.  

Figura 6 HPI Markets to watch

Summary

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

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corelogic.com/intelligence/

New homes sales drop 19.3% | North Salem Real Estate

After posting double digit month-over-month increases in November and December, new home sales dropped in January, decreasing 4.5% from the month prior to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 801,000, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday. Year over year, the sale of new homes was down 19.3% in January.

“The only-modest setback in new home sales reinforced the fact that both home shoppers and home builders continue to stand firm amid a slew of challenges,” Zillow economist Matthew Speakman said in a statement. “With the wind blowing against them, builders navigated significant supply chain and labor disruptions, including a very difficult past two months thanks to a wave of Covid infections sweeping the nation and contributing to lost man hours. And while pandemic-related pressures appear to be easing in other parts of the economy, the shortage of key building materials – notably windows and wood products – persists. But these headwinds cannot be ignored and builders are still falling short of potential — last month’s figure was 19.3% below January 2021, which represented a post-Great Recession record high.”

At the end of January, an estimated 406,000 new homes were still for sale, which at the current sales rate represents a 6.1 month supply. With the supply of existing homes for sale hitting record lows and the various labor and material shortages hitting the homebuilding industry, this relatively high level of supply of new homes is giving housing economists reason to be cautiously optimistic for new home sales this spring.

“With home prices rising at unprecedented rates, and existing home inventory now at the lowest levels on record — and demand expected to remain strong – prospective buyers are eagerly waiting for new homes to come onto the market even if it means having to wait for months, or even years, before construction is complete,” Speakman said in a statement. “Just 10% of new homes available for sale in January were fully built, slightly more than lows reached in the fall but still well below historic norms.”

Affordability remains a problem, however, with the median homes sales price for new homes rising to $423,300 in January from $377,000 in December.

“One year ago, 29% of new-home sales were priced below $300,000,” First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi said in a statement. “In January of this year, only 9% of new-home sales were priced below $300,000. Rising mortgage rates further worsen affordability.”

However, Kushi notes that the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict may impact how quickly and how much mortgage rates rise.

Regionally, new home sales fell in three out of the four national regions. In the Northeast, new home sales were down 10.7%, while the Midwest and South saw 3.7% and 7.4% drops, respectively. The West was the only region that saw a rise in new home sales, with an increase of 1.2%.

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realtrends.com

Four States Including NY Seek U.S. Supreme Court To Hear SALT Deduction Appeal Case | North Salem Real Estate

ALBANY—New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York Attorney General Letitia James announced on Jan. 3 that New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari to the U.S. Supreme Court to continue their lawsuit against the federal government for its unlawful and unprecedented cap on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT.

The petition asks the Supreme Court to review an October 2021 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that upheld the district court’s rejection of the states’ suit, which argues that the SALT cap was a politically motivated bid by the former federal administration to interfere with the policy choices of predominantly Democratic states.

“The SALT deduction cap is nothing less than double taxation on New Yorkers,” New York Gov. Hochul said. “Repealing the SALT cap would not only put more money into the pockets of New York families, it would deliver a much-needed boost to New York’s economy. I am proud we are taking this issue to the Supreme Court to continue to fight on behalf of New York taxpayers.”

“This unfair cap has already placed a significant financial burden on countless hardworking, middle-class families in New York, and in the years to come, it is expected to cost New York taxpayers more than $100 billion,” said Attorney General James. “We filed this lawsuit to protect millions of New Yorkers from this harmful, misguided, and blatantly political attack. New York will not be bullied into paying more than its fair share, and we will continue to fight back.”

The lawsuit—which was originally filed in July 2018 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York—argued that the new SALT deduction cap was enacted to target New York and similarly situated states, that it interferes with states’ rights to make their own fiscal decisions, and that it will disproportionately harm taxpayers in these states. The top states with the highest average deduction for state and local taxes—a majority of which are Democratic—include New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey.

The 2017 Tax Act reversed over a century of precedent in the federal tax code—drastically curtailing the state and local tax deduction by capping it at $10,000. An analysis by the New York state Department of Taxation and Finance projected that the cap would increase New Yorkers’ federal taxes by up to $15 billion annually.

As one of the nation’s top donor states, this attack is significantly more damaging to New York than many other states. Prior to enactment of the 2017 law, New York state already had the widest disparity among all states when factoring how much money New York sent to Washington, D.C. and the funding it received in return. Other donor states, including Connecticut, Maryland, and New Jersey are being similarly injured.

In its September 2019 ruling, despite ruling against the State of New York and its partner states, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York agreed that the states had been injured based on their argument that the cap on the state and local tax deduction may depress home prices. By effectively raising state property taxes, the SALT cap will also reduce the value of a homeowner’s property, thereby discouraging home sales and decreasing the revenues the states are able to collect by taxing such sales.

Reports in the press also show anecdotal evidence that New Yorkers—particularly the state’s highest earners—are already moving their homes and businesses to states like Florida because of the cap on SALT deductions. In New York, the top 1% of taxpayers account for 46% of state income tax collections and losing them threatens the ability of the state to deliver on New York’s promise of providing opportunity for every person in the state.

realestateindepth.com/news/

NYS building permits up 22% | North Salem Real Estate

Over the first ten months of 2021, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 948,321. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 17.3% increase over the October 2020 level of 808,301.

Year-to-date ending in October, single-family permits increased in all four regions. Southern region reported the strongest increase of 19.1%, followed by Northeast (+18.5%), West (+15.6%), and Midwest (+12.4%). Multifamily permits were robust across the country in October compared to last year; West (+38.6%), Midwest (+30.3%), South (+23.8%), and Northeast (+15.5%).

Between October 2020 YTD and October 2021 YTD, 48 states and the District of Columbia saw growth in single-family permits issued. The District of Columbia recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 213.0% from 115 to 360. Mississippi Maryland reported a decline during this time. The 10 states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.2% of the total single-family permits issued.

Year-to-date, ending in October 2021, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 490,172. This is 27.3% ahead over the October 2020 level of 385,107.

Between October 2020 YTD and October 2021 YTD, 41 states recorded growth while nine states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline in multifamily permits. New Mexico led the way with a sharp rise (180.0%) in multifamily permits from 694 to 1,943, while Connecticut had the largest decline of 51.3% from 2,700 to 1,316. The 10 states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.2% of the multifamily permits issued.

At the local level, below are top 10 metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. 



For multifamily permits, below are the top 10 local areas that issued the highest number of permits: 


 

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eyeonhousing.org

Housing Affordability steady | North Salem Real Estate

Housing affordability held steady at its lowest level in nearly a decade, as higher home prices offset lower mortgage rates to keep the affordability rate flat in the third quarter of 2021.  In the months ahead, however, supply-chain disruptions and the prospect of higher interest rates will continue to threaten housing affordability.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), 56.6 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $79,900. This is unchanged from the 56.6% of homes sold in the second quarter of 2021 and remains the lowest affordability level since the beginning of the revised series in the first quarter of 2012.

The HOI shows that the national median home price increased to a record $355,000 in the third quarter, up $5,000 from the second quarter and $35,000 from the first quarter. Meanwhile, average mortgage rates fell by 14 basis points in the third quarter to 2.95% from the rate of 3.09% in the second quarter. However, mortgage rates are currently running above 3.1%, and this higher trend could affect affordability later this year and into 2022.

Lansing, East Lansing, Mich. was the nation’s most affordable major housing market, defined as a metro with a population of at least 500,000. There, 89.1% of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $79,100.

Meanwhile, Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill. was rated the nation’s most affordable smaller market, with 93.4% of homes sold in the third quarter being affordable to families earning the median income of $76,300.

For the fourth straight quarter, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., remained the nation’s least affordable major housing market. There, just 8.3% of the homes sold during the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $80,000.

Four of the five least affordable small housing markets were also in the Golden State. However, at the very bottom of the affordability chart was Corvallis, Ore., where 6% of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $93,000.

Visit nahb.org/hoi  for tables, historic data and details.

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eyeonhousing.org

Mortgage rates surge to new high | North Salem Real Estate

Housing boom comes to Florida

Interest rates on the most popular type of U.S. home loan shot to a six-month high last week as global rates continued their march higher against a bout of stiff inflation and expectations that central banks will back further away from their pandemic-era easy-money policies.

The contract rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed to 3.23% in the week ended Oct. 15 from 3.18% the week before, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday in its weekly survey of conditions in the U.S. home lending market. That was the highest level since early April and is up by more than a quarter percentage point since the end of July.

The increase in rates helped drive overall mortgage-application volumes down by 6.3% to the lowest since July, led by a 7.1% drop in refinancing applications, the MBA said. Refinancing application volumes are also at their lowest since July, just fractionally above their lowest levels since early 2020.

Applications for loans to buy a home fell 4.9% to the lowest since early September.

“Purchase activity declined and was 12% lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Insufficient housing supply and elevated home-price growth continue to limit options for would-be buyers.”

How quickly that situation is resolved remains the big unknown in the U.S. residential real estate market. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in September and residential construction permits dropped to a one-year low amid acute shortages of raw materials and labor.

Meanwhile, global interest rates continue to grind upward as central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve signal the days of crisis-era accommodation are nearing their end in the face of inflation rates running at their highest in decades due to supply bottlenecks and labor shortages.

The Fed is broadly expected at its next meeting in two weeks to announce plans to start scaling back its purchases of $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as a first step toward a normalization of policy.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, the most influential benchmark security in determining mortgage interest rates, hit its highest since May on Wednesday and has climbed nearly half a percentage point since late July.

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reuters.com

Existing home sales up 12.3% | North Salem Real Estate

Existing home sales fell 3.7% month-over-month (m/m) in March to an annual rate of 6.01 million units, a seven-month low, versus expectations of a decline to 6.14 million units from February’s upwardly revised 6.24 million rate. However, existing home sales were up 12.3% year-over-year (y/y).

Compared to last month, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said buying activity in all the major regions fell, but all regions rose y/y. Sales of single-family homes and purchases of condominiums and co-ops were both down month-over-month (m/m), but higher y/y. The median existing home price jumped 17.2% from a year ago to $329,100, marking the 108th straight month of y/y gains as prices rose in every region. Unsold inventory came in at a 2.1-months pace at the current sales rate, nudging off last month’s 2.0-months pace, and down sharply from the 3.3-months pace a year earlier. Existing home sales reflect contract closings instead of signings and account for a large majority of the home sales market.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, ” Consumers are facing much higher home prices, rising mortgage rates, and falling affordability, however, buyers are still actively in the market,” adding that, “The sales for March would have been measurably higher, had there been more inventory,” he added. “Days-on-market are swift, multiple offers are prevalent, and buyer confidence is rising.

Democrat tax break for the rich | North Salem Real Estate

U.S. Reps. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer on Thursday introduced the SALT Deductibility Act that would remove the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions imposed in 2017 under the federal tax reform law.

The SALT Cap was highly criticized by New York politicians, as well as the New York State real estate industry, including the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors.

“When it comes to SALT, if you think Westchester and Rockland families needed and deserved this money before the coronavirus took hold, the stakes are even higher now because the cap is costing this community tens-of-thousands of dollars they could be using amid the crisis… Double taxing hardworking homeowners is plainly unfair.  We need to bring our federal dollars back home to cushion the blow of this virus—and this harmful SALT cap—has dealt so many homeowners and families locally,” said U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer.

The SALT Deductibility Act would remove the cap on the SALT deduction instituted in 2017 as part of then President Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and would allow New Yorkers to fully deduct their state and local taxes from their federal taxes.

“Donald Trump cut taxes for billionaires and big corporations and paid for it on the backs of hardworking families in Westchester and Rockland counties, where we pay the highest property taxes in the entire nation,” said Rep. Jones at a press conference announcing the introduction of the SALT bill. “That must change. Restoring the SALT deduction is a necessary first step to creating an equitable tax system – one where we put money back in the pockets of working people.”

Congressman Jones’ said the passage of the bill will bring needed relief to his constituents in Westchester and Rockland residents who pay the highest property taxes of any Congressional District in the entire nation, with Westchester ranked first and Rockland ranked second.

Others who praised the bill’s introduction were U.S, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who said, “The reinstating of the SALT Deduction will ensure that New York families have more money in their pockets, get much-needed tax relief and will once again be treated fairly.”

New York State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins noted that over the last three years, “Trump’s unfair attack on Blue States has cost New Yorkers over $30 billion, while wealthy corporations saw tax breaks.”

“I want to thank US Congressman Mondaire Jones for his work, in conjunction with US Senator Chuck Schumer, to restore the State and Local Tax or ‘SALT’ deduction,” said Westchester County Executive George Latimer. “This federal tax law is not only double taxation, but it also unfairly targets communities like Westchester County–and every homeowner in this county is a victim. In Westchester, where the average home is valued at $691,392.00, our homes are our greatest asset and this cap is a hit to our wallet. We cannot stand for this—and we will not. We won’t stop fighting until we overturn the SALT deduction cap.”

In other legislative news, Spectrum News reported that two state lawmakers had introduced a bill to tax capital gains in New York as a means to increase taxes on the state’s wealthiest residents. The bill backed by Sen. Gustavo Rivera and Assemblyman Ron Kim that would tax investment income could raise an estimated $7 billion in revenue for the state.

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realestateindepth.com

Mortgage rates average 2.84% | North Salem Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 2.84 percent.

“Mortgage rates jumped this week as a result of positive news about a COVID-19 vaccine,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Despite this rise, mortgage rates remain about a percentage point below a year ago and the low rate environment is supportive of both purchase and refinance demand. Heading into late fall, the housing market continues to grow and buttress the economy.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.84 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending November 12, 2020, up from last week when it averaged 2.78 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.34 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.32. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.20 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.11 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.89 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.44 percent.

The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully-amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Most Common Exteriors On New Homes are Stucco and Vinyl | North Salem Real Estate

According to the data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), stucco was the most common principal exterior material on new single-family homes started in 2019 (27 percent), followed by Vinyl siding (25 percent), fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard (21 percent), brick or brick veneer (20 percent). Far smaller shares of single-family homes started last year had wood or wood products (5 percent) or stone or rock or other stone materials (1 percent) as the principal exterior wall material.


The Census Bureau’s SOC data is available by the nine census divisions and there are substantial differences in the use of siding across divisions. Vinyl siding was the most widely used primary exterior material in 4 out of 9 census divisions. In the Middle Atlantic and New England, vinyl siding was used in 75 percent and 68 percent of the new homes started in 2019. In the East and West North Central divisions, vinyl siding accounted for 62 and 44 percent respectively. You should head to the Quality Built Exteriors site if you’re planning to install vinyl siding for your home.


Stucco was the most common widely used as the primary exterior wall material in the Pacific, Mountain and South Atlantic divisions in 2019: 57 percent, 52 percent and 38 percent, respectively, of the new single-family homes started in those areas used it. Brick or brick veneer was the top choice in East and West South Central divisions. In the West South Central, 62 percent of the new single-family homes started in 2019 used Brick or brick veneer as the primary exterior material, compared to 44 percent in East South Central division.

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eyeonhousing.org