Monthly Archives: December 2016

Share of Past Due Mortgages Drop Significantly | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Leave a reply

Information released by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) indicates that the share of all 1-4 family mortgage loans past due has returned to a level of normality. According to the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey, the share of all 1-4 family mortgages considered past due fell by 14 basis points to 4.52 percent as indicated in the new report. One year ago 4.99 percent of loans were considered past due.

The current share of loans past due has fallen significantly from its recession-related peak of 10.1 percent in 2010. Moreover, the current share of past due mortgages is below the average percentage between 1980, the beginning of the series, and 2006, 4.8 percent. Additionally, the average between 1987 and 2006 was 4.6 percent.

presentation1

Deeper analysis finds that the underlying composition of mortgages past due has improved, but has not fully recovered. Mortgages considered past due include those that are 30-59 days past due, 60-89 days late, and 90 or more days delinquent. It excludes mortgages that have entered foreclosure.

The figure below presents the distribution of mortgages past due by the 3 categories of lateness. Currently, about half of past due mortgages, 52 percent, are 30-59 days past due, 17 percent are 60-89 days past due, while 31 percent are 90 or more days delinquent. The present composition is better than the distribution at the peak in 2010, when mortgages 90 or more days past due accounted for half, 50 percent, of all past due mortgages.

However, the composition of past due mortgages on average between 1980 and 2006 was even more concentrated in the 30-59 day late category. On average, over the 1980-2006 period, mortgages 30-59 days past due accounted 67 percent of all past due mortgages while mortgages 90 or more days past due represented 16 percent. Also at 16 percent, the share of mortgages 60-89 days past due between 1980 and 2006 is similar to its current percentage of 17 percent.

presentation2

read more…

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/share-of-past-due-mortgages-reaches-post-recession-low/

Housing Starts Fall in November | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Housing Starts Fall in November

 

Housing starts posted a notable drop in November after a strong October pace. Total starts were down 18.7%, falling to a 1.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate after a 1.34 million rate in October. However, the decline was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector. The single-family sector continues to show anon improving trend, consistent with rising home builder confidence.

According to estimates from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, single-family starts declined 4.1% to an 828,000 annual rate from a robust October pace of 863,000. Year-to-date, single-family construction is 9.6% higher than this time of 2015. And as measured on a three-month moving average, single-family starts are at a post-cycle high, as seen on the graph below.

Single-family permits point to more growth in 2017. Single-family permits, as measured on a three-month moving average, are also at a cycle high (778,000 annual rate) and are 8.1% higher on a year-to-date basis.

Multifamily development was the primary reason the headline starts number declined in November. Total multifamily starts were down 45% for the month, dropping from a strong but unsustainable October pace of 477,000 to a 262,000 annual rate in November. On a year-to-date basis, multifamily starts are approximately 4% lower than this time in 2015, as the market levels off and finds a balance between supply and demand.

On a monthly basis in November, single-family starts were up 19.8% in the Midwest, but fell by 4.6% in the South, 7.6% in the Northeast and 15.3% in the West. However, the monthly numbers mask the improvement seen around the county during 2016 for single-family construction. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 12.4% in the Midwest, 10.9% in the Northeast, 9.5% in the South, and 7.6% in the West.

Focusing on housing’s economic impact, in November 57% of homes under construction were multifamily (599,000). This multifamily count is 9% higher than a year ago. There were 445,000 single-family units under construction, a gain of 7% from this time in 2015. This is the highest count of single-family units under construction since September of 2008.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/12/behind-the-november-starts-headline/

Non-Mortgage Consumer Debt Accelerates | Bedford Real Estate

Leave a reply

The Federal Reserve Board reported that consumer credit outstanding grew by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0% over the third quarter of 2016, 0.6 percentage point faster than the 6.4% rate of growth in the second quarter. There is now $3.71 trillion in outstanding consumer credit.

presentation15

Growth in the outstanding amount of consumer credit overall reflected an increase in both revolving and non-revolving credit. Revolving credit is largely composed of credit card debt while non-revolving credit includes both student and auto loans. Over the third quarter, revolving credit rose by 7.6% and now totals $2.73 trillion while non-revolving credit climbed 5.2% reaching $979 billion.

Growth in consumer credit has been accelerating on a quarter-over-quarter basis in 2016. According to Figure 1, since falling to 5.6% growth in the first quarter of 2016, each subsequent quarter has experienced a faster rate of growth. In the second quarter of 2016, growth rates of both revolving and non-revolving credit recorded higher rates of growth relative to the first. However, in the third quarter, growth in non-revolving credit accelerated again while the growth of revolving credit decelerated.

presentation17

Information from the most recent iteration of the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) provides some insight into the slowdown in the growth of revolving credit over the quarter. The SLOOS, among other questions, asks banks, who are the largest holder of revolving credit debt, about the supply and demand for credit card debt. In the most recent iteration, the SLOOS also asked about the likelihood of a respondent’s bank approving an application for a credit card to a borrower with a given FICO score now relative to 3 months ago. The FICO score options were 620, 680, and 720 and all other borrower characteristics were to remain “typical”*.

Figure 2 above depicts the results from the SLOOS, with these numbers, help with HMRC debt should be sought out for. The “Net” is the difference between the percentage of banks reporting that they were “More likely” now than 3 months ago to approve the credit card application and the proportion of banks that were “Less likely” to do so. On net, banks were less likely to approve a credit card application for a prospective borrower with a FICO score of 620 and were more likely on net to approve an application for prospective borrower with a FICO score of 720. At a FICO score of 680 banks were neutral on net, the same portion of banks reported both more likely and less likely to approve a credit card application for a borrower with that credit score.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/non-mortgage-consumer-debt-accelerates/

Mortgage rates average 4.16% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the seventh consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending December 15, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.97 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.37 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.22 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.19 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.17 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.03 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“As was almost-universally expected, the FOMC closed the year with its one-and-only rate hike of 2016. The consensus of the committee points to more rate hikes in 2017. However, the experience of this year combined with the policy uncertainty that accompanies a new Administration suggests a wait-and-see outlook.

“This week’s mortgage rate survey was completed prior to the FOMC announcement. The 30-year mortgage rate rose 3 basis points on the week to 4.16 percent. The MBA’s Applications Survey posted drops in both refinance and purchase applications, registering the impact of recent mortgage rate increases. If rates continue their upward trend, expect mortgage activity to be significantly subdued in 2017.”

Housing starts down in November, permits up | Chappaqua Real Estate

Single-family housing starts dipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 828,000 in November, according to new residential construction data released by the Commerce Department Friday morning. This month’s result marks a -4.1% decrease from October’s downwardly revised rate of 869,000 and represents a 5.3% gain compared to November 2015, when the estimate was 786,000.

The Midwest was the only region to experience a month-over-month increase in 1-unit housing starts, rising 19.8% from October levels to a rate of 145,000. All other regions decreased from October levels, most significantly the West, where single-family starts dropped -15.3% to a still-healthy rate of 183,000. On a year-over-year basis, the Midwest and South reported gains in the single-family category. Gains were most significant in the Midwest, where this month’s levels surpassed October 2015 levels by 33.0%

Total housing permits, the leading indicator for future starts, fell -4.7% in November, primarily due to a big dip in the multifamily sector, especially permits for 5-unit or more structures, which fell -15.8% month-over-month. Single-family permits rose 0.5%, indicating that next month’s report could be mediocre. Permits issued for 1-unit structures increased 7.0% in the Midwest, and 2.7% in the West, while the Northeast and South experienced single-digit losses month-over-month.

Total privately-owned housing completions increased 15.4% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,216,000. Completions of both single-family and multi-family housing increased in November following October’s strong report, by 3.3% and 44.5%, respectively.

 

read more…

http://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/starts-down-in-november-permits-up_o?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=Brief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BP_121616%20(1)&he=bd1fdc24fd8e2adb3989dffba484790dcdb46483

Home builder confidence ends the year at highest point since 2005 | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Home builders saw a significant boost in confidence after President-elect Donald Trump won the election, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

This increase brought builder sentiment up seven points to a level of 70, the index’s highest point since July 2005.

Just before the election, builder confidence held steady, holding the HMI level at 63.

“This notable rise in builder sentiment is largely attributable to a post-election bounce, as builders are hopeful that President-elect Trump will follow through on his pledge to cut burdensome regulations that are harming small businesses and housing affordability,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer.  “This is particularly important, given that a recent NAHB study shows that regulatory costs for home building have increased 29% in the past five years.”

Perhaps this is just the increase the industry needs to boost new home development for first-time buyers, something that First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming said will be a key player in 2017’s housing market.

“Though this significant increase in builder confidence could be considered an outlier, the fact remains that the economic fundamentals continue to look good for housing,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said.

“The rise in the HMI is consistent with recent gains for the stock market and consumer confidence,” Dietz said. “At the same time, builders remain sensitive to rising mortgage rates and continue to deal with shortages of lots and labor.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as high to very high, average or low to very low. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

 

read more…

 

Home builder confidence ends the year at highest point since 2005

High End New Homes | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Leave a reply

In 2015, a total of 1,762 homes were started for sale with a price of $1 million or more according to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. New homes started for sale with a price of $ 1 million or more decreased as a share in absolute number in 2015. That number was significantly lower than in 2013 (3,347 homes) and 2014 (3,019). Previous posts have discussed the upward trend in the median and average size of new single-family homes and how part of this is likely due to a historically atypical mix of buyers in the market.

chart1

In 2005, the number of new homes at this price reached a peak of 5,647 units. In the boom year of 2006, 4,966 new homes started were million dollar homes built for sale. In 2007, only 2,449 such homes were started followed by 1,028 homes in 2008. From 2009 to 2012, fewer than 1,000 of these $1 million+ homes were started every year.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/high-end-new-homes/

Holiday Credit Tips from North Shore Advisory | Mt Kisco Real Estate

 
 The Christmas & Holiday season is a time full of joy, laughter, and time spent with loved ones.

But, if you have ever stepped into a department store this time of year, you know that it’s also a hectic and stressful time. It’s easy to get caught up in all the parties and shopping, the last thing on your mind are account due dates and closing dates.

Here are a few tips:

  1. Double-check that credit card bill/payment alerts are activated.
  2. Auto-pay – a great way to make sure bills are paid on time. (Get a confirmation number!)
  3. Avoid paying late, it had the power to drop FICO score’s 100’s of points depending on your scores prior to the delinquency.
  • For instance, if John has a 780 FICO score he is a very low risk borrower. Let’s say he forgets to pay his bill on time this month, his score can drop down to 650, which is far from excellent. If John had delinquencies already appearing with a score of 660 prior to a new late payment he may experience a drop of 30-50 points. Since he is already a higher risk borrower his score does not have to drop much to show his new risk level.

Safeguard your credit score this Holiday season, especially if you are planning to go for a mortgage or loan within the next year or two – with the new trending credit data, lenders are looking at your revolving payment history dating back two year in order to assess the borrowers risk level.

If you have any questions or would like us to review reports, reach out to our Expert Credit Team!

Happy Holidays!

 
 
 
Tracy A. Becker, President

FICO Certified Professional

Expert Credit Witness Certified

Author “Credit Score Power”

 
North Shore Advisory Credit Repair
 
See What Our Clients Are Saying
 
North Shore Advisory In the Media
 
 Credit Resoration & Education
FICO Certified Professional

Author “Credit Score Power”
Expert Credit Witness Certified
North Shore Advisory, Inc.
5 West Main Street. Suite 207
Elmsford, NY 10523
P: 914-524-8300
F: 914-524-5014
info@northshoreadvisory.com
www.northshoreadvisory.com

 

Housing Affordability Edges Lower in Third Quarter | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Leave a reply

Ongoing home price appreciation offset a small decline in mortgage interest rates to move housing affordability slightly lower in the third quarter of 2016, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI).

In all, 61.4 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $65,700. This is down from the 62.0 percent of homes sold that were affordable to median-income earners in the first quarter.

hoi-ppt-q316

The national median home price increased from $240,000 in the second quarter to $247,000 in the third quarter. Meanwhile, average mortgage rates edged lower from 3.88 percent to 3.76 percent in the same period.

Elgin, Ill., was rated the nation’s most affordable major housing market, where 94.3 percent of all new and existing homes sold in this year’s third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $82,500. Meanwhile, Fairbanks, Alaska, was rated the nation’s most affordable smaller market, with 97.7 percent of homes sold in the third quarter being affordable to families earning the median income of $93,800.

For the 16th consecutive quarter, San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, Calif., was the nation’s least affordable major housing market. There, just 9.7 percent of homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $104,700.

 

read more

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/housing-affordability-edges-lower-in-third-quarter/

High-end house flipping | Chappaqua Real Estate

Leave a reply

Last June, Dana Rice, a real estate agent and house flipper, was deep in the throes of a massive remodeling project.

She had bought a 1938 home in an upscale neighborhood of Bethesda, Maryland, for $600,000 and intended to flip it for a hefty profit. Four months and $400,000 in construction costs later, Rice put the home on the market last weekend for $1,469,000. A million dollars of her money is at stake.

“Getting into the project is a risk because of the amount of money that you’re putting in, but overall at the end of the day, the ratio is the same,” Rice said as she put out candles and fliers for the first open house.

Rice added significant square footage, along with high-end finishes throughout. The so-called industrial cottage-style home is now 2,650 square feet with five bedrooms and three bathrooms. There is a small back patio, but the yard was sacrificed to make the home larger.

Rice says it is the opposite of the McMansion trend — not a tiny home for sure, but a ‘not-so-big’ home with top-of-the-line appliances, lighting, flooring, fixtures and systems.

“There is always a market for high-end because you’re differentiating your product from, let’s say, the masses,” said Rice. “In this particular area, for this particular house, I’m very confident because I feel as though the product we delivered — we really sweated the details on it, and I’m already getting great response from people who are looking at fixtures, textures colors, and it’s not what they see in the general renovation flip.”

Not only is house flipping on the rise in today’s increasingly competitive market, but average gross profits are now the highest since 2000, or since ATTOM Data Solutions, a real estate sales and analytics firm, began tracking flips.

House flippers in the second quarter of this year saw an average gross profit of $62,000, up from $57,900 in the second quarter of 2015. That gross profit represented an average 48.8 percent return on the original purchase price, up from a 47.5 percent a year ago.

“Home flipping is becoming more accessible for smaller operators thanks to an increasingly competitive lending environment with more loan options for real estate investors, who are also benefiting from the historically low mortgage interest rates,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “That favorable lending environment for flippers has helped to fuel the recent flipping frenzy we’ve seen over the past five quarters.”

A total of 51,434 sales of single family homes and condos were completed flips in the second quarter, up 14 percent from the previous quarter and up 3 percent from a year ago to the highest level in six years. [ATTOM defines a flip as a property sold in an arms-length sale for the second time within a 12-month period based on publicly recorded sales deed data.]

“It’s so fast and it’s so hot, you really have to be careful about who’s doing the work, because you’re going to pay that premium just to get that flip, but you need to look behind the curtain to see how they did it,” Rice cautioned.

Close to 40,000 investors, both individuals and institutions, completed at least one home flip in the second quarter of this year, the highest number in nine years. Home flipping peaked about 10 years ago, during the height of the housing boom, when mortgages were easier to pick up than a quart of milk. That is not the case today.

“While an increasing number of flippers are financing their purchases, more than two-thirds are still using cash to purchase compared to about one-third using cash to purchase back in 2006,” said Blomquist.

With so many new flippers in the market, the concern is in the craft. Rice actually spent more than a year remodeling her house, her fourth flip. That is longer than usual, but at her price, the house had to match the high-end market.

“The market is pretty strong for fixtures, finishes — everybody watches the TV shows. They have an expectation, and we want to meet it,” said Rice.

There were also a few bumps along the way.

read more…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-million-bet-anatomy-high-123425218.html