Daily Archives: April 30, 2015

House Price Appreciation Moderates | Armonk Real Estate

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) recently released the House Price Index (HPI) data for February, 2015. Figure 1 shows the House Price Index (HPI) data from January 1991 to February 2015. The annual growth rate is also presented in Figure 1.

Figure1

House price appreciation has been volatile but averaged approximately 5% from 1991 to 2003 prior to the housing boom. Appreciation accelerated after 2003 and house prices rose rapidly through 2005 with annual growth of reaching 10%. Beginning in 2006, the rapid house price growth reversed with price appreciation slowing sharply and turning negative by 2007. House price declines slowed after 2008 but the annual growth rates didn’t turn positive until 2012. Since turning positive house price growth rates have recovered returning to the roughly 5% average that was the norm before the boom.

The trend line shows that house prices have declined from their boom-inflated peaks, recovered some of the lost value from the bust, and are now in line with where the trend was headed before the boom and bust cycle, suggesting that current levels and rates of growth are sustainable.

 Figure2

Figure 2 provides a more geographically detailed analysis, looking at house price appreciation in the nine Census divisions. Regionally, eight of the nine Census divisions posted positive growth for the month of February and all were above year ago levels.  All nine divisions have seen substantial price growth since hitting their respective troughs.

It should be noted that among the four divisions with the greatest cumulative growth, including Pacific, Mountain, West South Central, and South Atlantic, three of those included bubble states that fell the farthest during the housing bust (California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida). The stronger than average cumulative growth is a reflection of partial price recovery after deep losses, rather than inherent strength. In contrast, the above average cumulative growth in the West South Central division reflects inherent strength in the housing market. This division includes Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, where the local economies benefited from the strong performance of the energy sector, but also avoided much of the housing boom excesses experienced in other areas.

The Home Price Index data reported by the Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller shows the same house price dynamics as the FHFA index. The Case-Shiller index shows the steady growth before the boom, the acceleration and subsequent price declines, and the more recent return to more normal and sustainable growth rates.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/04/house-price-appreciation-moderates/

Bedford-bred Upstart could break New York’s Kentucky Derby drought | #Bedford Real Estate

COURTESY OF CHURCHILL DOWNS

Although Empire City Casino’s Kentucky Derby Day and fancy hat contest are local traditions, this year’s Derby-related activities have the added appeal of a hometown favorite: Upstart, a Bedford-bred horse, will try to bring home a Derby win for New York for the first time in more than a decade.

The three-year-old Upstart, owned by Ralph Evans and bred by Sunnyfield Farms Owner Joanne Nielsen, has a solid record, with a career total of seven starts: three first-place finishes, three seconds, and one third.

The first New York horse to win the Kentucky Derby was Funny Cide in 2003. Since then, no New York horse has made it to the top of this crème de la crème of horse races. Upstart, who won the Holy Bull and was a runner-up in the Florida Derby, has been given 15-1 odds—not impossible, certainly, but he’ll need a bit of luck to pull out a win. Coincidentally, his foalhood nickname was “Lucky;” he was born on April, 13, 2012—a lucky Friday the 13th. And given that only 20 thoroughbreds make it to the Kentucky Derby out of the approximately 30,000 that are born yearly, one could argue luck has always been on Upstart’s side.

It’s not every year New Yorkers get to see a hometown contestant in the Kentucky Derby, so be sure to tune in and root for Upstart. Coverage starts at 4 pm on Friday on NBC.

 

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http://www.westchestermagazine.com/Westchester-Upstart-Horse-New-York-Kentucky-Derby/