Monthly Archives: January 2015

Apartment glut may tame rising rents | Katonah Real Estate

Home builders and investors have poured money into so many new rental units that tenants

may see rent growth slow in the near future, one economist said.

While there will likely be “robust demand” in 2015 from renters — and young adults, in particular — builders have already started and plan to start enough new apartment projects that the days of excess demand may soon be over, said Ryan Severino, senior economist at Reis, a New York-based research firm focused on commercial real estate.

“Demand will struggle to keep pace with the significant amounts of new construction that should come online over the next few years,” Severino said.

Growth in rents over coming years should remain positive, according to Reis, but it will likely slow from 2014’s heady pace of about 3.5%, which far outpaced overall consumer inflation.

“Although an improving labor market with more jobs and faster wage growth should provide landlords with more leverage to increase rents, over time this will be stymied by the sheer number of new units that are going to come online, increasing competition in the market,” Severino said.

The frenzy for apartments has been fed by a choppy jobs market that made it tough for workers to set aside enough cash for a down payment. Also, persistently high credit standards have kept singles and families from obtaining a mortgage, a key financial ingredient for many would-be homeowners, particularly first-time buyers.

Seeing an opportunity, developers ramped up apartment building. The rate of private construction spending on new multi-family residences was up 27% in November from the year-earlier pace, more than double a 13% gain for new single-family homes, according to government data. Meanwhile, outstanding multifamily-mortgage debt swelled in the third quarter, rising the most since the end of 2007, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Tuesday.

Rental vacancy rates are the lowest in 20 years, which gives landlords power to raise rents. Government data show that landlords recently ramped up rents by the fastest pace in six years. But that power may taper as the supply of rental units rises.

“With a veritable deluge of new supply set to come online over the next few years, vacancy is headed higher. The supply pipeline swells larger and larger on a weekly basis and presents the greatest risk to the apartment market’s health,” Severino said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apartment-glut-may-tame-rising-rents-2015-01-06

Seattle’s Glassy ‘Open House’ is Pretty Self-Explanatory | Bedford Hills Homes

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Location: Seattle, Washington
Price: $1,900,000
Seattle’s Open House probably does have an open house in its future, as it was listed yesterday for $1.9M, but the title refers to the glass walls in back that open up on both levels (the top one pushes up and out, and bottom one rolls up like a garage door). Between those large indoor-outdoor spaces, the too-spare modern staging, and what the listing calls “HUGE art walls,” the sale angle is clear: throw parties here.

A Curbed Seattle commenter who may or may not be one of the sellers says the “photos don’t do it justice,” and they do linger on the terrace/patio sections so much that it’s hard to get a sense for this 2009 work by Seattle architect Eric Cobb apart from white walls. There are some cool metal curtains on the bottom floor, a modern built-in bunk bed in the kids’ room, and a nearly all-stainless-steel kitchen.

The master bedroom is lofted above the kitchen and dining room, which is pretty interesting. You can’t really go wrong with concrete floors and exposed steel, and there’s a great deal of both.

http://curbed.com/archives/2015/01/06/eric-cobb-architects-open-house-seattle-for-sale.php

Home prices continue to moderate | Bedford Real Estate

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.5% in November 2014 compared to November 2013, marking 33 months of straight year-over-year increases in home prices, the newest CoreLogic (CLGX) home price index found.

On a month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, edged slightly higher, increasing by 0.1% in November 2014 compared to October 2014.

“It is too soon to tell whether the slight moderation in the month-on-month rate of house price inflation in November is the first sign that price pressures are coming off the boil again. Regardless, the bigger picture is that the recent acceleration in house prices is unlikely to be sustained into 2015,” a Capital Economics report said on the home price index.

The increases in home prices trickled down to the state. Including distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in November

Twenty-nine states are at or within 10% of their peak, and seven states reached new highs in the home price index (since January 1976 when the index starts). These states were: Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.3% in November 2014 compared to November 2013 and 0.3% month over month compared to October 2014.

Even with excluding distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in November.

“After decelerating for most of the year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5- percent and 6-percent growth rate for the last four months,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

“However, pockets of weakness are clear in Baltimore and Washington D.C., and three of the top four states with the highest price appreciation are energy intensive and had been benefitting from the energy boom which is currently receding as oil prices trend downward. These states—Texas, Colorado and North Dakota, may see some downward pressure on prices in 2015,” said Khater.

Looking ahead, CoreLogic HPI forecasts that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to decrease 0.1% month over month from November 2014 to December 2014 and increase, on a year-over-year basis, by 4.6% from November 2014 to November 2015.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices are also expected to decrease by 0.1% month over month from November 2014 to December 2014 and increase by 4.2% year over year from November 2014 to November 2015.

CoreLogic: Home prices continue to moderate

3-D tours for Real Estate | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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Here’s how models are made using a camera and software developed by one of the leading companies in the space, Matterport:

Step 1. Position the camera in the spot you want to scan. You’ll need to scan from many locations — 70 on average — to capture an entire home.

Step 2. Open the Matterport iPad app, and press the blue button that says, “Ready to Scan.” Pretty straightforward!

The camera will rotate 360 degrees, snapping photographs that give Matterport’s models their photo-realistic quality, and collecting readings from infrared sensors that infuse the images with a 3-D feel. You circle the camera as it spins to stay out of view and avoid scanning yourself. Each spin takes about 30 seconds.

Throughout the scanning process, you can see a top-down view of the space you’ve mapped on the iPad app, so you know what gaps you need to fill in. Every blue dot marks a spot where you conducted a scan. These dots represent the vantage points that you’ll be able to hop between when you use the model.

Step 3. Once you feel like you’ve covered the premises, you’ll need to mark windows.

That tells Matterport’s software to process only 3-D data captured for the space between the camera and the window, and to exclude data for space outside the window that could extend beyond the camera’s range.

You’ll also need to mark mirrors, since they can trick the camera into believing that their contents represent actual space rather than just a reflection. You can also tweak the boundaries (as I did below) of a scan if you want to trim some spaces from the 3-D model, like a boiler room.

Step 4. When you’re done marking features in the model, tap upload to transfer the data to Matterport’s processing platform, which will convert the data into a photo-realistic 3-D model. The upload and rendering should take from one to two hours.

You’ll receive an email when the process is complete, notifying you that your model is ready for viewing or management within the Matterport content management tool.

Voila!

Here’s me tooling around in the model.

In the beginning, you can see its “dollhouse” view, a bird’s-eye perspective that makes it easier to digest a home’s layout.

http://www.inman.com/2015/01/05/3-d-tours-may-be-the-most-powerful-do-it-yourself-real-estate-marketing-tool-ever/

Oil Price Drop and Houston Real Estate | Bedford Corners Homes

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The ranks of million-dollar homeowners in Houston have swelled in recent years, with the number of sky-high home sales more than doubling since 2010. But the market’s swift surge is now threatened by strains in the energy industry that fueled much of the city’s high-end real estate boom.

Wealthy Houstonians purchased 1,411 homes that each sold for at least $1 million last year, up from 688 five years earlier, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.

And Houston had the highest number of luxury home sales among Texas’ four major cities last year, a report released Monday by the Texas Association of Realtors showed. That represents almost 2 percent of this area’s total housing transactions.

Million-dollar-plus home sales were up 13 percent in 2014 over the previous year, according to the second-annual Texas Luxury Home Sales Report, which looks at high-end home sales in the state’s largest cities based on sales data from the first 10 months of the year.

With astonishing speed, however, the price of oil has fallen to levels not seen in five years, and the most dour economic predictions now show Houston at risk of going into a recession.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Plunging-oil-could-chip-away-at-million-dollar-5995534.php

Housing In 2015: Four Reasons For Optimism | Chappaqua Real Estate

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Six years ago, homebuilders and Realtors were facing brutal business conditions: millions of Americans were losing their jobs and homes.

As 2015 begins, hiring is strong and economic indicators are pointing up. Could this be the year when the housing market finally breaks out of its tepid recovery and takes off?

Economists see several reasons why 2015 might be a banner year for homebuying — and not just in San Francisco and Miami.

They also see One Big Factor that potentially could block a buying binge.

Before considering that possible downer, let’s first look at the upside:

Employers are hiring again.

When companies are hiring, would-be homebuyers feel more confident about taking on mortgage debt.

During the recession, companies kept slashing positions, sending the unemployment rate soaring to 10 percent and frightening potential homebuyers. But job growth has been strong lately, with employers adding 321,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate has tumbled to 5.8 percent.

As that good news sinks in, optimism is rising. The Conference Board’s latestConsumer Confidence Index shows confidence is running 19.5 percent higher than a year ago.

Home prices just took a breather, which helps.

From January to October, home prices rose 4.5 percent nationally, according to the latest S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index. That gain was subdued compared with October 2013, when home prices jumped 11 percent higher than the previous year.

Consumer Confidence Up | Armonk Real Estate

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Improving job and wage prospects lifted the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment December Index to its most favorable level since its last cyclical peak in January 2007. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index reversed its November retreat based on a more favorable estimate of current business and labor market conditions.

The Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 93.6 in December from 88.8 in November and 82.5 during the same month a year ago. Consumers reported hearing more positive economic developments than any other time in the last thirty years. The survey reported consumers anticipated a significant increase in their incomes in 2015.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 92.6 in December from an upwardly revised 91.0 in November. The Present Situation Index soared to its highest level since February 2008.

http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/01/bursting-with-confidence/

November Sales Lay an Egg | North Salem Real Estate

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Just as the housing industry was preparing to celebrate the first year in a decade when sales progressed at a relatively moderate pace and experts from coast to coast were heralding a return to normalcy, November existing home sales laid the biggest egg in four years.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million in November from a downwardly-revised 5.25 million in October. Sales dropped to their lowest annual pace since May (4.91 million) but are above year-over-year levels (up 2.1 percent from last November) for the second straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors.

If November’s anemic showing is repeated in December, the real estate industry will see sales end the year below the symbolic 5 million mark, a serious sign that the recovering is faltering. Last year sales reached a total 5.09 million units, which was 9.1 percent higher than 2012. It was the strongest performance since 2006 when sales reached an unsustainably high 6.48 million sales were the highest since 2006, and median prices maintained strong growth, after rising 1 percent over November.

NAR characterized November’s performance as “losing momentum” and NAR Chief Economist Lawrence said sales activity was “choppy” throughout the country. “Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,” he said. “The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $205,300, which is 5.0 percent above November 2013. This marks the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 6.7 percent to 2.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace – unchanged from last month. Despite the tightening in supply, unsold inventory remains 2.0 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.05 million existing homes available for sale.

All-cash sales were 25 percent of transactions in November, down from 27 percent in October and 32 percent in November of last year. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15 percent of homes in November, unchanged from last month and below November 2013 (19 percent). Sixty-one percent of investors paid cash in November.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/12/november-sales-lay-an-egg/

It was a $1.7 Trillion Year | Mt Kisco Real Estate

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The good news is that America’s housing stock is now worth $27.5 trillion, an increase of $1.7 trillion over last year. The bad news is that U.S. home values rose 6 percent year-over-year through November, the smallest annual gain since June 2013, according to Zillow’s Stan Humphries.

The aggregate value of all homes nationwide is expected to be approximately $27.5 trillion by year’s end, up more than $1.7 trillion (6.7 percent) year-over-year and the third consecutive annual increase. It is a testament to just how huge and important the housing sector is to the overall economy that gains of more than a trillion dollars in one year represents only single-digit percentages of the total market. Humphries said.

Still, as massive as the current overall value of housing is in the U.S., the aggregate value of all homes remains 6.1 percent below the Q3 2006 peak of almost $29.3 trillion. This makes sense, as the median home value nationwide is still down almost 10 percent from its pre-recession high.

But just as median home values in several local markets across the country – including Denver, Pittsburgh and a handful of Texas metros – have exceeded their prior peaks, so too have aggregate home values in a few large markets. In nine of 35 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, the total value of all homes in the area is at or above prior peak. Many of the same areas where median home values are above peak are also the same as where aggregate values are at peak, including Denver and a collection of Texas markets (Dallas, Houston and Austin).

Although home values to continue to grow, they are rising much more slowly than earlier in the year, currently at a pace last seen in mid-2013. Over the next 12 months, from November 2014 to November 2015, home values are predicted to rise 2.4 percent, to slightly less than $182,000.

Slowing home value appreciation has been driven in large part by more for-sale inventory coming on line in recent months, which is helping to bring the supply of homes in line with demand. This has been welcome news for buyers that were previously competing with each other and with cash-rich investors for a very limited number of homes. However, inventory has been drifting downward on a monthly basis for the past two months.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/12/it-was-a-1-7-trillion-year/

Will Low Down Payments Bring First-timers Home? | South Salem Real Estate

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Suddenly More first-time buyers are buying homes. More are making down payments even as lenders rush to sign up for the new 3 percent down programs launched by Fannie and Freddie in November. Coincidence or can we connect the dots?

It’s too soon for the new programs to have an impact on sales, but the odds are good that when they do the first-timer spike in sales may turn into a trend. Loosening standards, improving incomes, soaring rents–whatever the cause, as the New Year begins there’s a refreshing new wind blowing throughout housing markets coast to coast.

According to the National Association of Realtors, first-time homebuyers accounted for 31 percent of existing home sales in November (29 percent in October 2014; 28 percent in November 2013. Initial December data indicated a pickup of purchases from first-time buyers in November, likely a result of the improving job market and the decline in interest rates to 4 percent.

Zillow predicts that first-time buyers who stayed out of the market – either for demographic reasons or because they just couldn’t find the right entry-level home – will have a breakthrough year in 2015.rding to Zillow. Zillow’s predictions are based on data showing rents continuing to skyrocket while the for-sale market levels off. That economic reality, increased inventory, and millennials getting married and having children after delaying those choices, will give buyers more negotiating power. In fact, Zillow predicts the millennial generation will overtake Generation X as the biggest group of home buyers in 2015.

Meanwhile the majority of first-time home buyers making a low down payment appears to be uptrend. Among first-time buyers reported to be obtaining a mortgage in the months of September through November, about 66 percent made a down payment of 6 percent or less. This is a decline from the 77 percent figure in early 2009, but an improvement from the 61 percent figure at the beginning of 2014. In 2014 the average down payment for first-time buyers was

On December 8, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced the acceptance of loans originated with a 3 percent down payment under certain qualification guidelines to increase credit availability to first-time buyers meeting eligibility standards. In the case of Freddie Mac, borrowers will be required to participate in a borrower education program. In the case of Fannie Mae, borrowers will still have to meet the standard eligibility underwriting requirements such as those relating to income, employment, and debt, and borrowers will be required to purchase private mortgage insurance. Borrowers making a low down payment may still face higher costs for risk adjustment (called loan level pricing adjustments) in the case of GSE-backed loans.

Within weeks, mortgage lenders—all non-banks—began lining up to announce they were going to participate.

First out of the box to sign up for FHFA program were 360 Mortgage Group and ditech, both with 97% LTV into their product offerings. Guardian Mortgage Company, Citywide Financial in San Diego, Houston lender AMCAP Mortgage and Michigan-based United Wholesale Mortgage were among of the first to announce they would participate in the GSE programs.

Meanwhile, before the details were even announced, Bank of America came out saying that it does not plan on easing its mortgage standards or offering 3% down mortgages, despite regulators seeking to expand lending. Wells Fargo said it is currently in the process of examining the new product.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/01/connecting-the-dots-are-low-down-payments-bringing-first-timers-home/

Buying Bedford Real Estate

Robert Paul Realtor buying Bedford real estate

Monthly Archives: January 2015

Apartment glut may tame rising rents | Katonah Real Estate

Seattle’s Glassy ‘Open House’ is Pretty Self-Explanatory | Bedford Hills Homes

Home prices continue to moderate | Bedford Real Estate

3-D tours for Real Estate | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Oil Price Drop and Houston Real Estate | Bedford Corners Homes

Housing In 2015: Four Reasons For Optimism | Chappaqua Real Estate

Consumer Confidence Up | Armonk Real Estate

November Sales Lay an Egg | North Salem Real Estate

It was a $1.7 Trillion Year | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Will Low Down Payments Bring First-timers Home? | South Salem Real Estate