wish I’d said this (and in a few weeks I will have, I’m sure) but Ramsey Su at Acting Man Blog did it first and in a way I’ve been searching for the words to explain.

Every week or so we get another indicator that’s supposed to tell us how the housing market is doing.

And every part of the industry trumpets whichever metric best serves its own purpose. Thus you have the Mortgage Bankers Association touting this “good news” about interest rates, while the National Association of Realtors touts how rising home prices are a great sign, and on and on.

But none of these measures – home sales, home starts, home prices, interest rates – tell the real tale.

Then along comes this boy named Su, who gets right to the heart of the matter:

The strength of the real estate market should not be measured by price appreciation, or the number of new and existing home sales. It should be measured by the support of underlying fundamentals and whether they can help to withstand economic cycles without policy makers having to go hog wild just to avoid a total collapse.

How healthy is the real estate market today?

He looks at some troubling measures we’ve noted at HousingWire – the decline of income growth, the bulk of Americans having subprime credit, and the fact that there’s nothing left in the Fed for another bailout if (when) things go pear-shaped again.

1. The Subprime Majority

Recently, I came across a report by the Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) titled Assets and Opportunity Scorecard. Some of their findings are quite interesting. According to the CFED Scorecard, 56% of all consumers have sub-prime credit. Sub-prime is “earned”. A consumer has to miss a few payments, or default on a loan or two to earn that status. These 56% cannot, or should not, be taking on more debt, especially a large debt like a mortgage.  They may also be struggling with a mortgage that they should not have taken out in the first place.

And with so few companies willing to loosen credit standards, even the worthy subprime don’t have many options.

2. Liquid Asset Poor

CFED found that 44% of households in America are Liquid Asset Poor, defined as having saved less than three months of expenses. As one would expect, 78% of the lowest income households are asset poor, but 25% of middle class ($56k to $91k) households also have less than three months of expenses saved.

How much of a down payment can you expect them to have on hand?

http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/28994-signs-the-real-estate-market-is-in-trouble