Monthly Archives: May 2013

Troubling Signs In The Housing Market | Cross River Real Estate

The housing market showed signs of recovery in late 2011, beginning with a sharp upturn in housing stocks in October of that year. This was followed by a small upturn in housing starts and home sales starting in early 2012. While Wall Street economists and the media are avidly reporting that a full-fledged housing market recovery is under way, my view has been that what looks like a “recovery/bull market,” is more akin to a “dead cat” bounce and that the bear market in housing has a lot further to go to the downside.

With that in mind, I wanted to discuss some indicators I like to follow that, if they become full-blown fundamental trends, could be signifying the start of the next leg down in housing.

The first sign is housing starts. While the current crop of new and existing home sales reports hitting the tape are still showing some growth, assuming the seasonal adjustments are accurate, housing starts appear to be signaling possible future weakness. Housing starts should reflect a new homebuilder’s expectations of future sales. April’s starts were 853,000, which was 12% below the number expected by Wall Street economists and 16.5% below March’s revised number. When the housing starts for April were released, it was also reported that the March number was revised lower from 1.036 million to 1.021 million. Not as strong as originally reported.

 

Troubling Signs In The Housing Market – Seeking Alpha.

Jessica Simpson lists one home, keeps the other | Bedford Hills Real Estate

The “Fashion Star” judge just listed her longtime residence for $7.995 million, according to Zillow, who writes:

Custom-built in the early ’90s by award-winning L.A. designer Kerry Joyce, the 5,500-square-foot home is located in a private celebrity enclave with a gated entrance and vine-covered exterior. Simpson has owned the 5-bedroom property since 2005, when she bought it for $5.275 million following her separation from then-husband Nick Lachey.

To see photos of the California home, click here.

 

Jessica Simpson lists one home, keeps the other | HousingWire.

Sacramento housing market nears normal | Bedford Real Estate

With 42 new permits issued in January through March of this year, Sacramento increased by 121% over the same period a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosure starts slid by 74% when compared to the pace from a year earlier, writes the Sacramento Business Journal.

 

Sacramento housing market nears normal | HousingWire.

Foreclosure threat subsides for more Miami households | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Foreclosure rates in the greater Miami area remain astonishingly high, but they’re headed in the right direction.

In March, 13.25 percent of the outstanding mortgages in the Miami, Miami Beach and Kendall area were in some stage of the foreclosure process, according to CoreLogic. That was down from 17.51 percent a year earlier. But it was dramatically higher than the national foreclosure rate of 2.84 percent, according to the Irvine, Calif.-based real-estate data firm.

 

Foreclosure threat subsides for more Miami households | HousingWire.

7 Questions to Ask Yourself to Bring Clarity to Your Blogging | Bedford Corners Realtor

Do you feel like you’ve lost clarity around what it is that you’re trying to do with your blog?

I’ve recently bumped into a few bloggers grappling with this idea. Some were new,  even ‘Pre’ Bloggers, while a couple had been blogging for a while but had lost some direction.

Out of these conversations, I put together a set of questions to help them think it through.

The questions revolve around asking:

What are YOU About?YOU

While I won’t guarantee you instant clarity on answering these questions I hope that putting a little time aside to work through them might help – please let me know if they do!

  1. What interests do you have?
  2. What experiences (good and bad) have you had?
  3. What expertise and skills do you have?
  4. What are your passions?
  5. What gives you energy?
  6. What do you talk a lot about to friends?
  7. If you could write about anything – what would it be?

7 Questions to Ask Yourself to Bring Clarity to Your Blogging : @ProBlogger.

Chappaqua Realtor | Responsive Marketing

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In the beginning, there were products and services, and some were good. Fewer became trusted brands, but those that did enjoyed unquestioned loyalty supported by a simple yet effective marketing engines built to reach people in mass quantity. The formula worked for decades. An empire was built on the shoulders of Madison Avenue and expanded globally. It is an empire, which still exists today, though arguably it’s a diminished version of its former self.

More recently, technology has had it’s own evolutionary process which it’s still going through. Well over a decade ago, when large organizations developed and updated their complex Web properties, the most popular and rigorous process one could follow in development was referred to as “Waterfall”.  Think of this as a descending, linear staircase where one step of the process was completed in full before moving on the next. The methodology was rigorous, but also left little room for tweaking, testing, adapting and improving along the way.

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Responsive Design
Today, digital design and development is often done leveraging the “agile” method of development, which favors smaller, cyclical bursts of development and rapid testing. Start-ups favor this approach as well building not only their tech products but also their business models in a way, which resembles more of an agile philosophy vs. a rigid, sequential approach. Even “large” start-ups like Facebook demonstrate this in how they roll out enhancements to their global platform, often making the changes incrementally, rolling them out with select users and then adjusting based off the data they analyze. Google often works this was as well. If you were to undertake designing and building a digital property today—you would also have to ensure that it would perform across multiple platforms (desktop, tablet, mobile). A popular methodology for developing this way is called “responsive design”—a technique, which leverages code that results in a shape shifting design which auto-magically fits the medium it, is being interacted with in.

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Most Marketing Remains Linear And Unresponsive
Despite the pervasive nature of all manifestations of digital, including social and mobile, much of the marketing emphasis remains dedicated to reaching people in mass, following a tried and true formula for advertising designed to build off consumer insights and craft compelling messages which could be distributed across a myriad of channels (including digital). The approach is designed for the broadcast industrial machine including print, radio and television, which, despite rumors of its demise is likely to stay with us for some time. The problem it poses however is that it is an approach that much like its counterpart in tech development, (Waterfall) is neither nimble nor flexible and isn’t built for rapid change nor does it adapt well beyond the dominant media it was designed for.

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“Content Marketing” Is Disrupting Modern Day Brand Building
CMOs, chief digital officers and brand managers across many organizations are currently grappling with the notion of content used in the context of marketing—inherently they understand that their customers value content, consume it, create it, and share it—and they want in on the action. They also understand that this type of content isn’t often the traditional campaigns they execute for broadcast so they face a dilemma:

What content do consumers value most?

How do they find it?

What gets individuals sharing content with peers?

How does content scale, reaching the right audience at the right time?

How do brands insert themselves into the content ecosystem in ways that bring value back to the brand?

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Responsive Marketing
The solution to the content question lies somewhere between acknowledging that a brand must support both a traditional, linear marketing model in addition to a newer, cyclical construct which is constantly in tune with the current environment and operates in consolidated time frames. Responsive marketing sits at the core of the content evolution that many companies find themselves trying to navigate as they pull together newsrooms,command centers and media operations which are designed to help brands act more like publishers. All of these can be effective in treating the symptoms a brand may exhibit if they possess only competencies in linear forms of marketing, but they do not address the root issue—deconstructing a marketing machine which places the majority of resources on mass marketing will ensure it never gains proficiency in alternate forms of content and media.

A more holistic approach is needed.

 

Logic+Emotion: Responsive Marketing.

Banks Seen Holding REOs for Higher Prices | Armonk Real Estate

Real estate agents report banks are keeping foreclosures off the market in hopes of higher prices, a practice that is temporarily reducing the percentage of distress sales but lengthening the foreclosure timeline.

The share of distressed properties in the housing market fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in April, falling to 33.0 percent in April, based on a three-month moving average. That was not only down from 35.6 percent in March, but also a very sharp drop from the 43.6 percent distressed property market share seen a year ago, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking

However, there also are reports from real estate professionals participating in the survey that many banks are holding back their sale of foreclosed properties until home prices climb further. As a result, there is the potential for a spike in distressed property sales in the coming months.

In the past year, charges that lenders have sought to manipulate REO process have increased as foreclosure inventories have declined.

In EForeclosure Magazine last April, Wells Fargo senior economist and vice president Scott Anderson explained that withholding a number of foreclosure properties for sale from the real estate market is a deliberate effort on the part of lenders to abate the drastic decline in home prices.

Results from a study of the foreclosures market showed that only one third of repo homes are being marketed for sale. Anderson added that if banks will release all foreclosure properties on their portfolios for sale, property values will surely take another steep plunge.

Anderson pointed out that withholding foreclosure properties from the market could greatly impact the balance sheets of lenders and for any individual who will try to sell a home or seek mortgage refinancing.

In studies for AOL Real Estate last year, RealtyTrac found that just 15 percent of REOs in the Washington, D.C., area were for sale, a statistic that is representative of nationwide numbers, the company said.  CoreLogic provided an even lower estimate, suggesting that just 10 percent of all REOs in the country are listed by their owners, which include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as the Federal Housing Administration. As of April 2012, 390,000 repossessed homes sat in limbo, while about 39,000 were actually listed for sale, said Sam Khater, senior economist at CoreLogic.

The drop in distressed property activity in April was accompanied by a parallel dip in the percentage of purchases attributable to investors, the latest HousingPulse numbers show. Investors accounted for 21.6 percent of home purchase transactions tracked last month based on a three-month moving average. That was the lowest investor share recorded since November.

Foreclosed properties in need of repair – or so-called damaged REO – remain the largest category of purchases by investors. Typically, investors buy these properties, fix them up, and then turn them into rental housing.

Last month investors accounted for 62.8 percent of damaged REO purchases, HousingPulse numbers show. This compared to a 63.9 percent share in March and a 60.4 percent share a year earlier.

 

Banks Seen Holding REOs for Higher Prices | RealEstateEconomyWatch.com.

Bedford NY Luxury Market Inventory Report | RobReportBlog

5/22/13

Bedford NY Area Luxury Real Estate Market Report

Over $2,000,000
Homes for Sale165
Homes Sold (6 Mos.)27
Homes in CC, pending, sold44
Inventory- sold36.66 months
Inventory- sold, cc, pending22.51 months

 

 

Bedford NY Luxury Market Inventory Report | RobReportBlog.

Pound Ridge NY Weekly Real Estate Report | RobReportBlog

Pound Ridge NY Weekly Real Estate Report

5/23/2013
Homes for sale
88
Median Ask Price$1,045,000.00
Low Price$285,000.00
High Price$4,250,000.00
Average Size3903
Average Price/foot$354.00
Average DOM119
Average Ask Price$1,357,334.00

 

 

Pound Ridge NY Weekly Real Estate Report | RobReportBlog.

Jobless claims inch down | Cross River NY Real Estate

Jobless claims in the U.S. reversed back down, falling by 23,000 filings for the week ending May 18 and hitting 340,000 total claims.

This slight increase comes after last week’s revised figure of 363,000, according to the Department of Labor

The four-week moving average was 339,500, a drop of 500 filings from the previous week.

Analysts with Econoday said there have been a few bright spots on the outlook for May’s economic data.

“This report is definitely a strong positive for the employment outlook. Whether this correlates with gains for the Dow is uncertain given the possibility, following yesterday’s hawkish sounding FOMC minutes, that strong data could begin to trigger withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus,” Econoday said.

 

Jobless claims inch down | HousingWire.