Monthly Archives: May 2013

Mortgage market of the past may hold some clues for the future | Bedford NY Real Estate

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James Hagerty of the Wall Street Journal hosted a session on the future of America’s mortgage market this week at the MBA Secondary Conference in New York.

The title of the session and the majority of the discussion assumes in some way that the mortgage market needs to be different than it is today. This leads me to wonder: Does the mortgage market need to be fixed and if so what still needs to be fixed?

We are all well aware of the extent to which GSEs and FHA currently provide liquidity to the U.S. mortgage market. I suspect consensus on this development is that it is far from ideal. Private, not public, capital should be supporting the mortgage market at least more than it does today.

But how much more?

Think back to before the mortgage crisis: Public capital played a very significant role, and had historically done so in the U.S. mortgage market.

The GSEs also brought something else to the market: standardization.

Is this a role that the private sector is qualified or prepared to play going forward?

Is the goal to achieve a level of private capital that is higher than before the crisis?  One highly oversimplified argument against this is that the private-label RMBS market was a a major contributor to the financial crisis.

Yes, regulators have put in place new rules to reign in many of the bad practices of the past, but a new privately built market structured would be untried.

What if rather than creating a whole new market structure, as some have proposed, what if we went back to the way it was before with a few important improvements?

The first improvement would be to develop private-label RMBS standards. Just as the GSEs issue standardized MBS, there could be a standard template for private label RMBS.

For example, there would be standards for the types of loans in the security, the type and amount of due diligence performed on the loans, and for the contract terms.

This is part of what was missing in the private-label RMBS market of old. Second, go back to the conforming loan limits of old which will reduce the market share of the GSEs.

Moving forward loan limits can be used to adjust the share of public versus private capital in the mortgage market over time.

 

 

http://www.housingwire.com/rewired

Elevated refi activity pushes mortgage applications higher | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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Mortgage applications increased 7% for the week ending May 3 when compared to a week earlier, an industry trade group said Wednesday.

The steeper jump comes after only slight increases these past few weeks, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

The refinance index also soared 8%, reaching its highest level since December 2012.

“The gain in the refinance index was due to increases in both the conventional and government refinance indices of 8.8% and 5.7% respectively,” the MBA noted.

The seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 2%, bringing it back to its highest level since May 2010.

Breaking a three-week trend, the refinance share of overall mortgage activity inched up to 76% of total applications compared to 75% last week.

Additionally, the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity increased slightly and now accounts for 4% of all mortgage applications.

The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a conforming loan balance continued to slip to 3.59%, the lowest level since December 2012, and down from 3.60% the previous week.

Meanwhile, the average 30-year, FRM with a jumbo loan balance dipped to 3.79% from 3.80% last week.

The average contract interest rate for the 30-year, FRM backed by the FHA ticked up to 3.35% compared to 3.34% the previous week.

Both the 5/1 ARM and the 15-year, FRM fell to the lowest rate in the history of the survey, tumbling to 2.53% and 2.81%, respectively.

 

 

http://www.housingwire.com/news

Survey of Economists Finds Fears of New Bubble | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate

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More than 100 forecasters in a national survey said they expect the home values to reach an average of 5.4 percent year-over-year and that current Federal Reserve policies post some risk of re-inflating the housing bubble.

In the survey of 105 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists, panelists said they expected median U.S. home values to rise to $165,280, on average, by the end of 2013. At the end of 2012, the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index stood at $156,800.  The survey was sponsored by Zillow and is conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC.

In the survey conducted in late February and early March, respondents said they expected average home value growth of just 4.6 percent in 2013. Looking forward, respondents predicted average home value appreciation of 4.4 percent in 2014, up from prior expectations of 4.2 percent.

While panelists were more bullish on near-term home value appreciation this year and into 2014, their expectations for nationwide home value growth in 2015, 2016 and 2017 were slightly more pessimistic than in prior surveys. On average, panelists said they expect annual home value growth between 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent from 2015 through 2017, down modestly from previously expressed expectations in the 3.6 percent to 3.8 percent range. Cumulatively, survey respondents predicted home values to rise 22.3 percent, on average, through 2017.

Banks Cool to FICOs Below 620 | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

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Borrowers with FICO scores of 620 or lower will get a chilly reception from a growing number of banks unless they are willing to make substantial down payments.

Banks, most of them smaller banks, participating in the most recent Survey of Senior Loan Officers by the Federal Reserve indicated that they were less likely to approve loan applications with a FICO score of 620, depending on the size of the down payment.

Currently the median FICO score for all approved loans is 748. For approved conventional purchase loans, the median is 761 and for FHA purchase loans, 698.

Banks were more likely to approve an application for a conventional loan with a FICO score of 720 and a 20 percent down payment. However, about one-third of said they were less likely to approve loan such applications with FICO scores of 580 or 620.

Overall, only a few banks reported changes in either standards or demand for any type of residential real estate lending during the previous three months, though a significant number said that indicated that the demand for prime mortgages had picked up. A few domestic banks reported having eased their standards on prime residential mortgages, and respondents’ lending standards for nontraditional mortgages were little changed.

Roughly three-fourths of banks viewed the outlook for house prices or economic activity as important factors currently affecting their bank’s residential real estate lending. Three-fourths of banks also cited the risk of putback of delinquent mortgages by the GSEs as an important factor restraining their current ability or willingness to approve home-purchase loans. A large fraction of banks reported an increase in the importance of this factor over the past year.

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/05

Prices Soar at Boom Speed | Armonk NY Real Estate

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March home prices rose at double digit rates-increasing faster than they have in seven years-and the outlook is nearly as good for April.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 10.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in March 2013 compared to March 2012. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since March 2006, at the height of the housing boom, and the 13th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.9 percent in March 2013 over to February 2013.*

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 10.7 percent in March 2013 compared to March 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 2.4 percent in March 2013 compared to February 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that April 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 9.6 percent on a year-over-year basis from April 2012 and rise by 1.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from March 2013. Excluding distressed sales, April 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12 percent year over year from April 2012 and by 2.7 percent month over month from March 2013. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“For the first time since March 2006, both the overall index and the index that excludes distressed sales are above 10 percent year over year,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The pace of appreciation has been accelerating throughout 2012 and so far in 2013 leading into the home buying season.”

“Home prices continue to rise at a double-digit rate in March led by strong gains in the western region of the U.S. Looking ahead, the CoreLogic pending index for April indicates that upward price appreciation will continue,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Much of the price increases we are seeing are the result of rising demand among investors and homebuyers for a still-limited supply of homes for sale.”

Highlights as of March 2013:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+22.2 percent), California (+17.2 percent), Arizona (+16.8 percent), Idaho (+14.5 percent) and Oregon (+14.3 percent).

 

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/05

Sentiment shift: Home prices to rise | Katonah Real Estate

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The majority of Americans now are forecasting home prices to rise, and only about a third are expecting prices to fall, a reversal in attitudes of a year ago.

A monthly survey by mortgage finance firm Fannie Mae found 51% of those questioned in April believe prices will rise in the next 12 months, while only 35% are projecting a drop in prices. It is the first time in the three-year history of the survey that a majority said they expect prices to increase.

A year ago, 49% were expecting further price declines while only 32% said they though prices were on their way up.

The latest data from the housing market back up the this new level of confidence in the housing recovery. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 9.3% over the last 12 months, the biggest annual rise in home prices since the height of the housing bubble in 2006.

“Crossing the 50% threshold marks a significant milestone, as most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly occurring throughout the country,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae.

People who were sitting on the sidelines because of concerns that prices were still falling can be drawn back into the market once they believe prices are on their way up again.Home sales are up 10% from a year ago, helped not only by the climbing prices but alsorecord low mortgage rates and falling unemployment.

 

 

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/07

Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively Buy Country Spread Just Outside New York for $5.7 million | Pound Ridge Homes

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Ryan Reynolds and Blake Livelymore big

The happily-married hot celebrity couple, Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively has reportedly dropped $5.7 million on a residence in the Westchester County town of Pound Ridge, New York. (Photo : Reuters)

The happily-married hot celebrity couple, Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively, has reportedly dropped $5.7 million on a residence in the Westchester County town of Pound Ridge, New York.

According to the Real Estalker, the couple had closed the deal on the property sometime back in November 2012, but kept it private just as they had kept their wedding in September.

“Blake was trying to decide between getting married in her new home in New York or in Charleston. She chose Charleston because we could keep it secret, quiet and a private affair for her,” Tara Guérard, their wedding planner told Life & Style at the Martha Stewart Weddings Annual Bridal Market Party. Apparently, they also used a lot of code names to do a lot of things, reports Life & Style Magazine.

The Real Estalker tried searching for some “meaty” property records but could only lay hands on some less interesting stuff. The couple bought the estate under a trust that Reynolds used to purchase his Bedford, New York and Los Angeles homes. Currently, the home is under renovation. However, the original colonial-style residence spans an area of 8892 square feet and  has 21 rooms including seven bedrooms seven/six bathrooms, all sitting on 12 large acres of land. A detached barn and a sweeping driveway are also a part of the property.

Currently, any active listing could not be found on the estate. An eyewitness reportedly saw the couple’s car moving in and out of the property many a times. The witness also saw trucks hauling loads of furniture to the residence.

Well! Nothing can be known until they want it to be known. Recently, Lively opened up about how she and Reynolds chose the Bedford home in an interview with Elle décor. The former “Gossip Girl” star said that the location of the home and the kitchen was why they liked the place a lot. Lively loves to cook and therefore having a comfy kitchen was one of the first things in her mind.

“Since my kitchen is the most important part of my home, I want to be creative and innovative, not only in its aesthetic, but also in the tools that I’m using to cook,” she explains in the interview.

 

 

http://www.realtytoday.com/articles

 

Cicadas set to overrun Hudson Valley | Bedford Hills NY Homes

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Billions of cicadas lurking underground in the Hudson Valley and along the East Coast are awaiting their cue: when ground temperature reaches exactly 64 degrees.

Only then will the inch-long creatures crawl out of the burrows they have lived in for 17 years, climb trees and begin several weeks of riotous mating calls, sex, parenthood and finally death. Then the insects’ offspring will crawl underground to begin the cycle over again.

In the Hudson Valley, showtime could come within days as the air temperature climbs and the earth warms.

Scientists say the cicadas with bulging red eyes will outnumber people from North Carolina to Connecticut by about 600-to-1 and that the males’ mating calls will be as loud as a rock concert.

In 2004, Gene Kritsky, an entomologist at the College of Mount St. Joseph in Cincinnati, measured cicadas at 94 decibels, saying it was so loud “you don’t hear planes flying overhead.”

Cicadas come out every year in different regions around the world, but the variety about to make their entrance along the East Coast are different. They’re called magicicadas — as in magic — and are red-eyed. Magicicadas are found exclusively in the eastern half of the United States.

There are 15 U.S. broods that emerge every 13 or 17 years, so that nearly every year some place is overrun. Last year it was a small area, mostly around the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia, West Virginia and Tennessee. Next year, two places get hit: Iowa into Illinois and Missouri; and Louisiana and Mississippi. Still, it’s possible to live in these locations and actually never see them.

This year’s invasion is one of the bigger ones. Several experts say that they really don’t have a handle on how many cicadas are lurking underground but that 30 billion seems like a good estimate. At the Smithsonian Institution, researcher Gary Hevel thinks it may be more like 1 trillion.

Even if it’s merely 30 billion, if they were lined up head to tail, they’d reach the moon and back.

This year’s invasion, dubbed Brood II by scientists, is expected to cover large swaths of the Hudson Valley, according to Daniel Gilrein, an entomologist with Cornell Cooperative Extension of Suffolk County. Nature lovers, he said, should plan expeditions in late May and early June to see the insects at work.

 

http://newyork.newsday.com/news

 

Hot Seattle residential real estate called ‘surge market’ | Bedford NY Real Estate

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When Dolly Lenz, called the queen of U.S. real estate, speaks, people listen. And that’s what a select group of John L. Scott Real Estate high-end luxury real estate agents did when Lenz and real estate appraiser and consultant Alan Pope ofAlan L. Pope and Associates spoke at a recent breakfast put on by John L. Scott for their top sellers.

As vice chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman in New York City, Lenz has sold more than $7 billion in real estate, more than double the next top agent in the country. This was her first time in Seattle. She loved it and spoke of increasing opportunities in the real estate market.

Pope says the market in our metro area is up 15 percent and that he is seeing the same kind of buying frenzy that he saw six years ago.

“Yes, it has been a fabulous recovery in the housing market,” says Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L .Scott Real Estate. “I saw it formulating 18 months ago. The confidence of local homebuyers has come back strong,” he says.

Scott says sales for his company are up 25 percent in the last 18 months and called the sales activity “a strong to surge market. The last four months has definitely been a surge,” he says, “fueled by the fact that there is such a strong economy with historically low interest rates.”

The Seattle area is one of the top markets in the nation, with strong job growth. Scott points to a shortage of housing inventory on both the West and East coasts. “And in our area there’s a one- to two-month supply of homes available. A healthy market is 5-6 months of inventory.”

 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle

Calgary’s country residential real estate market set to take off | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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A longer winter season in the Calgary area has had an impact on sales in the country residential market but with the weather warming up it’s expected that sector will see an uptick in activity similar to what’s happening in the city and in surrounding towns.

“As the snow has melted and access to rural properties becomes an easier venture, buyers are becoming more motivated to purchase within the rural markets,” said Mark Evernden, with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada in Calgary. “As well as warm weather, a strong and growing economy accompanied by low interest rates also make home buyers eager and able to obtain homes.”

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, year-to-date until the end of April, there have been 263 MLS sales in the ‘country residential’ market which includes acreages. That’s down 2.95 per cent compared with the same period a year ago. However, the average sale price has increased by 2.64 per cent to $823,253. New listings are off by 1.20 per cent to 991.

Evernden said the country residential market is now in full swing of activity.

“It is seasonal. The longer winter does impact the sales and volume as we are seeing. From a marketing position, the green pastures and rolling hills with colour give it that extra appeal to the consumer with digital and print marketing that goes out. No different than terrible rain seasons and gloomy days in the tropics,” he said, adding that there will now be an increase in viewings driven by the better weather, strong economy and migration of high net worth clients to the area.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/Calgary+country+residential+real+estate+market+take/8347802/story.html#ixzz2Sd9SPf18