Daily Archives: May 3, 2013

Construction Spending, ISM Index, ADP Payroll, Mortgage Purchase Applications | North Salem Real Estate

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In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses construction spending, the ISM index, ADP payroll figures, and mortgage purchase applications.

 

  • A stream of fresh economic data appears on the first day of every month. Here is a quick summary of today’s data and what it may mean to you.
  • Construction spending on residential buildings rose, but activities on new commercial buildings and government-funded projects declined. This means there is and will be more construction job opportunities for homebuilding.
  • The manufacturing sector is barely holding on. The ISM index, which measure activity in this sector, fell for the second consecutive month. The latest reading of 50.7 is only marginally above the critical 50 mark, which separates expansion and contraction. This means job gains in the manufacturing sector will slow or even possibly reverse in a few months.
  • ADP, a company that processes payroll checks for many firms, revealed 119,000 net new jobs in April in the private sector. This data has smaller coverage than the official employment data from the government, which is scheduled to come out this Friday. This likely means that official job gains will be comfortably positive, but the job creation pace is still not strong enough to meaningfully bring the unemployment rate down.
  • Mortgage applications for a home purchase fell slightly, though are up by 13 percent from one year ago. Applications for refi rose and are up 31 percent from one year ago. This means that home buying demand remains strong, but mortgage brokers need to prepare for a potentially sharp decline in mortgage refi activity in 2014.
  • Finally, the big cities are creating jobs. The L.A.-Santa Ana region added 116,000 net new jobs in the past 12 months. The Greater New York City area put 106,800 new people to work. However, La-La land and the Big Apple have huge populations so the job growth rates were only in line with the national pace. Dallas and Houston are the true stars. Dallas added 101,000 net new jobs in the past 12 months, while Houston put 102,300 more people to work. These Texas job growth rates were triple the national job growth rate. This means there will be greater housing demand per each REALTOR® in Texas versus other parts of the country.

 

 

 

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/05/01

Distressed Sales Declined to 21 Percent in March | Waccabuc NY Real Estate

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The share of distressed properties on the market continued to decline. About 21 percent of REALTORS® reporting on their last sale in March sold distressed properties, compared to approximately 40 percent in March 2011. This is based on data from the March REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.

Distressed sales are mostly sold for cash. Distressed sales accounted for 35 percent of cash sales compared to 21 percent of mortgage sales.

 

 

 

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/05/03

5 Reasons Social Workers Need to Work with Social Media | South Salem Realtor

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ID 100109457 5 Reasons Social Workers Need to Work with Social MediaWhile some social workers are afraid to get involved in social media, they don’t want to break down important boundaries between social workers and their clients. But there are professional ways to use social media to improve your knowledge, connect to your clients, and gather support from your colleagues. Here are 5 ways social media will help social workers:

1. Get Informed

Social workers can learn from reading books about social work, but the fact is, the field of social work changes as fast as people do. The best way to keep up with the changing practices is to stay plugged in to social media. You can follow Twitter feeds such as those from LSE Impact Blog to learn about the practices of other social workers in other areas of the country. If you’re working with people who have been affected by recent disasters, you can see what those affected are saying about their situations and emotions rather than depending on the ways in which various “local authorities” report those things.

2. Reach Out and Touch Someone

ID 10046751 5 Reasons Social Workers Need to Work with Social MediaSocial Media allows you to connect to your colleagues and to your clients.  You can also connect with those who have disabilities or other limitations that prevent them from reaching out to social workers because they have a hard time getting around.  If you’re listed in social media outlets, they can find you and get help when they otherwise wouldn’t get the help they need. Social media also allows you to connect with more people since it takes less time and energy than making several phone calls to check in on people.

3. Develop a Professional Identity

Social workers sometimes face the challenge of developing a professional persona. Social media provides a platform for the building of a professional. You can share useful links to credible organizations.  You can show that a sometimes overlooked profession should get more attention and credibility. You can draw in the clients who best match the skills you have to offer.  Many social work organizations, such as Advanced Social Work Practice Network, that connects professionals across the world.

 

 

http://www.dreamgrow.com

Case-Shiller Composites Sank to New Lows in Q1 | Cross River Real Estate

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All three headline Case-Shiller composites fell to new post-crisis lows in the first quarter of 2012, wiping out all price gains realized since prices peaked in 2006, a decline of approximately 35 percent through March 2012.

The Case-Shiller national composite fell by 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2012 and was down 1.9 percent versus the first quarter of 2011. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted respective annual returns of -2.8 percent and -2.6 percent in March 2012. Month-over-month, their changes were minimal; average home prices in the 10-City Composite fell by 0.1 percent compared to February and the 20-City remained basically unchanged in March over February.

In addition to the three composites, five cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York and Portland – also saw average home prices hit new lows. This is an improvement over the nine cities reported last month.

In March 2012, 12 MSAs posted monthly gains, seven declined and one remained unchanged. Phoenix posted the largest annual rate of change, up 6.1 percent, while home prices in Atlanta fell the most over the year, down 17.7 percent.

Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas were the four cities where average home prices were below their January 2000 levels. With an index level of 102.77 Chicago is not far behind.

 

 

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/05

Housing Costs Rose for Working Families During Housing Bust | Katonah NY Real Estate

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Despite falling mortgage interest rates and home prices from 2008 to 2011, severe housing cost burdens remained stable but high for working families who own their homes while more than one in four working renter households (26.4 percent) spent more than half of their income on housing costs in 2011-an increase of more than three percentage points since 2008.

The share of working households with a severe housing cost burden increased almost two percentage points between 2008 and 2011, rising from 21.8 percent to 23.7 percent. This growth reflects the combined effects of an increase in the rate of severe housing cost burden for working renters and a more or less steady rate for working owners, according to a new study by the Center for Housing Policy.

The median housing costs of working renters rose nearly six percent between 2008 and 2011 while their median incomes fell more than three percent. Working owners experienced a decrease in median housing costs over the three-year period, but the lower costs were accompanied by an even larger decline in their median incomes, so affordability did not improve, the study found.

Median gross rents of working renters rose nearly six percent in nominal terms since 2008, with steady year-over-year increases. In contrast, housing costs for working owners followed precisely the opposite course, falling more than three percent between 2008 and 2011, with steady annual drops. Rising rental costs may be due in part to increased competition for rental units and the inadequate production of new rental units during the Great Recession.

Household incomes for working renters and owners fell at least three percent between 2008 and 2011, despite a modest one-percent increase in incomes in the most recent year. For working renters, a 3.2 percent drop in median household income reflects a larger one-year drop between 2008 and 2009 followed by small improvements in both 2010 and 2011. Working owners faced a 4.2 percent drop in median household income between 2008 and 2011 that reflects incremental annual decreases from 2008 to 2010 followed by a modest increase in 2011.

“The growing rate of severe housing cost burdens among renters is not a new trend, but it is clearly an unsustainable one,” said lead report author Janet Viveiros. “While rental costs have steadily risen over the last few years, wages for these working families have not fully recovered from the hit they took between 2008 and 2009. Spending most of your paycheck on rent means cutting back on other necessities, including healthcare and even food.”

Co-author Maya Brennan noted that the causes of rising housing cost burdens among working renters include a difficult economy and an increased demand for rental housing, partly due to the crisis on the homeownership side of the market.

“While the economy pushed both owners’ and renters’ incomes down, the shift away from homeownership is pushing rents up due to increased demand. What we’re seeing with the rental market is not explainable by population trends alone-it clearly reflects the movement of former homeowners into rentals as well as delays in home purchases by current renters,” Brennan explained. “But this increase in rental demand has not been matched by an increase in supply. This imbalance leads to rising rents in markets across the country.”

The study defined working households as those that report household members working at least 20 hours per week, on average, and earning no more than 120 percent of the median income (AMI) in their area. There were approximately 44.5 million working households in the United States in 2011, split between homeowners (21.9 million) and renters (22.6 million).

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/05

 

Middle Aged Homeownership Plummets | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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Home ownership fell across all age groups in the first quarter of the year, but declines were greatest not among younger Americans under 35 who have been having problems getting financing and finding homes to buy but among middle aged households over 45, which traditionally register the highest home ownership rates but suddenly registered significant decreases.

According to the latest Census Bureau data, the national homeownership rate fell by .4 percent in the first quarter to 65 percent, its lowest since 1995, and a surprise to many observers in light of the recovering housing economy. Even more surprising was the steep decline among middle aged householders who traditionally score the highest homeownership rates of all age groups.

Homeownership fell more among those age 45 to 54 than any other age group, declining .8 points from 72.1 to 71.3 percent, the first quarterly decline since 2011. The new rate for the age group is lower than it has been at any time during the housing recession. Householders age 55 to 64 saw their homeownership rate fall .6 percent, from 76.7 to 77 percent. By contrast, those under 35 lost only .3 percent on their homeownership rate.

“The number has gone down for middle-aged people because they’re the ones who lost their homes to foreclosure,” Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, told the Wall Street Journal. “The uptick among young people is what we can describe as the allure of newly rising prices and low interest rates.”

However, the numbers of bank repossessions due to foreclosure have been generally declining over the past year. Bank repossessions did increase 9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 over the third quarter, yet they were still down 14 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011. During the first quarter of this year, repossessions have declined. Lenders repossessed 43,597 properties nationwide in March, the lowest since September 2007. U.S. bank repossessions in March decreased 3 percent from February and were down 21 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

Short sales may have more to do with turning middle aged homeowners into renters than foreclosures. Short sales now account for virtually the same volume as foreclosures. RealtyTrac reported short sales accounted for 22 percent of all homes sold last year. REO and pre-foreclosure sales accounted for only 21 percent of all sales.

Short sales of properties not in foreclosure accounted for an estimated 22 percent of all U.S. residential sales in 2012 and increased 4 percent from 2011. Non-foreclosure short sales nationwide accelerated throughout the year, increasing from the previous quarter in each quarter. Fourth quarter non-foreclosure short sales increased 2 percent from the third quarter and were up 17 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011, reaching a seven-quarter high.

 

 

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/05