Home prices will not reach a true bottom until late 2013, Fitch Ratings said.
Still, investors are busy scoping the market for deals, with more real estate professionals and mid-sized private equity firms acquiring homes in key areas to rent them out, Fitch Senior Director Suzanne Mistretta said in a new structured finance report.
The New York-based ratings giant believes home prices in the U.S. will decline another 7.8%, which is improved from a previous estimate of an additional 9.8% drop. Research firm Capital Economics expressed similar optimism, declaring Tuesday that a rise in April existing-home sales suggests a modest recovery driven by cash buyers and investors.
Fitch said other parties on the securitization side have built and offered distressed residential mortgage-backed securities funds. In addition, larger firms are now allocating capital to distressed mortgage bonds, sending additional doses of optimism throughout the market.
Fitch believes 12 states are now undervalued in terms of prices while 14 states now have price levels in a sustainable range. The company cited Arizona as an example of a state that experienced steep price declines but is now beginning to stabilize.
But prices aren’t up everywhere. New York and New Jersey are seeing prices fall.
Market recoveries will hinge on what happens at the local level, the report added. Georgia is one of the worst performing states with prices 32% below levels reached in 2000.
“Those losses are second only to Michigan’s. But a closer look at Atlanta exemplifies the local nature of the crisis and recovery,” Fitch said. “Prices in the central portion of the city and its affluent northern suburb have largely held ground, while the southern portion of the city’s prices collapsed.”
Fitch believes there’s a need to stop steep price declines in parts of the South. The research firm suggests REO-to-rental programs in troubled neighborhoods could fill vacant homes, making the neighborhoods more viable again.
Daily Archives: May 23, 2012
Record low rates spur mortgage application filings | Bedford NY Real Estate
Mortgage application filings rose 3.8% for the week ending May 18 as low interest rates spurred along refinancing activity, an industry trade group said.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said refinancing application activity shot up 5.6% while an index measuring home purchases fell 3% from a week earlier.
“Continuing negative developments in the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, particularly in Greece and Spain, as well as the recent French elections, which have shifted political power in a manner that will likely show less support for European austerity, helped push the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield below 1.7 percent last week,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics. “Mortgage rates again dipped to new record lows in the survey, which spurred more borrowers back into the refinance market. As a result, applications for refinance loans have increased for the third straight week and are at the highest level since February of this year.”
Refinancing activity rose from representing 74.9% of all mortgage activity to 76.6%.
Mortgage rates continued to decline with the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan limits under $417,500 falling from 3.96% to 3.93%, the lowest rate in the survey’s history.
Meanwhile, the 30-year, FRM for jumbo loans saw its rate jump from 4.20% to 4.25%. The average contract interest rate for the 30-year, FRM backed by FHA fell from 3.75% to 3.73%.
The 15-year, FRM remained unchanged at 3.26%, the lowest rate in the history of the survey.
In addition, the 5/1 ARM rate increased from 2.80% to 2.83%.
Toll Brothers returns to profit in 2Q | Bedford Hills Real Estate
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. ($27.03 0%) returned to a profit in the second quarter with net income of $16.9 million, or 10 cents a share, thanks to increased confidence in the market and fewer cancellations.
The Horsham, Pa. – based homebuilder posted a loss of $20.8 million in the year-ago period, or a loss of 12 cents a share. The company also posted a first-quarter 2012 loss of $2.8 million, or 2 cents a share.
Last quarter’s losses, the hightest for any first quarter in five years, were largely a surprise, and the company reported the losses were due to fewer deliveries and increased cancellations. This quarter’s improvement comes as Toll Brothers reports greater recovery in Florida and in Phoenix, two of the hardest hit areas.
“It appears that the housing market has moved into a new and stronger phase of recovery as we have experienced broad-based improvement across most of our regions over the past six months,” said Chief Executive Douglas C. Yearley Jr. “Spring selling season has been the most robust and sustained since the downturn began.”
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast earnings of 4 cents.
Toll Brothers delivered 671 homes in the quarter ending April 30, up 14% from 591 a year earlier. Backlog was at 2,403 units from 1,760 units from last year. Net signed contracts also jumped significantly, up 47% to 1,290 homes. The average price of those contracts was $585,000 up from $570,000 year-over-year. The cancellation rate, which is defined as cancellations divided by signed contracts, dropped 2.4% from 5.7% in 1Q 2011.
FY 2012’s second-quarter results included $2 million of pre-tax inventory write-downs and a $1.6 million recovery of prior joint venture impairments, compared to FY 2011’s second quarter pre-tax write-downs and joint venture impairments totaling $32.5 million. Revenue increased 6.4% to $695.6 million.
Toll Brothers’ stock has risen 32% so far in 2012, and closed Tuesday at $27.03.
Katonah NY Real Estate | Italy Constructing World’s First Vertical Forest
Construction Jobs for the North Salem NY Real Estate Market | North Salem NY Homes
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses construction jobs.
- Construction job hires fell in March from the prior month. But the number of layoffs in the sector declined even more, thereby resulting in a slight net increase in the overall employment in the construction industry.
- Even better news is that the number of construction job openings rose in March, implying more hires in the upcoming months. No doubt, rises in home sales are beginning to make an impact on construction jobs.
- Related to the broader economy, the number of job openings is on the rise. This should make it a tad less stressful for job hunters. But for those with jobs already, they should not feel totally comfortable because the number of job separations are also on the rise. Part of job separation could be voluntary as existing workers seek out better jobs.
- Home sales are somewhat dependent on people finding a new job and relocating. The rise in both job hires and job separations will therefore be a positive for home sales. The job dynamism is also good for the broader economy as people move into jobs that are demanded in the ever-changing free market economy.
- On separate news, the home price index from CoreLogic squeezed out a small gain of 0.6% in March. This closing price would reflect negotiations from late last year. Home price measurements are therefore a big lagging indicator and do not reflect what may be happening in May. Listing prices, which have been on the rise based on Realtor.com data, suggest home price measurements will show an even stronger positive gain for May, but we will only know of this in July and August. Idaho and North Dakota are the top gainers in March, but Arizona and Florida are close behind and ready to take the lead in a few months.
Charts on April Existing Home Sales | South Salem NY Real Estate
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million in April from a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March, and are 10.0 percent higher than the 4.20 million-unit level in April 2011.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types jumped 10.1 percent to $177,400 in April from a year ago; the March price showed an upwardly revised 3.1 percent annual improvement.
Current housing affordability conditions:









