Daily Archives: April 24, 2012

Euro rallies on U.S. housing data | South Salem NY Real Estate

* Euro rallies but outlook clouded by political risks * Dutch auction sees reasonable demand * Two-day FOMC meeting to start later Tuesday NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) – The euro rallied against the dollar on Tuesday after two U.S. housing reports raised optimism about the U.S. economic recovery and in turn stoked risked tolerance against the backdrop of a two-day policy meeting at the U.S. central bank. The euro was already bid after a debt sale in the Netherlands saw demand from investors a day after the Dutch government’s collapse in a crisis over budget cuts. As institutional investors stepped in to buy the euro after the U.S. data, others who had bet against the European currency reversed positions. The move higher then fed on itself. A closely watched survey showed U.S. home prices rose for the first time in 10 months, in an encouraging sign the battered sector is starting to stabilize. A separate report showed U.S. single-family home sales dropped in March to their lowest level in four months, but the reading still beat analysts’ expectations and the government said sales in prior months were higher than initially thought. . “We’re really seeing the euro gain a footing,” said David Song, currency analyst at DailyFX. “Market participants are taking on more risk on the positive housing data.” The euro was last 0.3 percent higher at $1.3194 after climbing as high as $1.3218, according to Reuters data. The currency, however, remains in the range of roughly between $1.30 and $1.33 it has kept since early April. Traders reported a slew of offers to sell the euro at $1.3230 which could cap further gains. DailyFX’s Song cautioned investors should expect volatility ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement to be released on Wednesday. The Fed will begin its two-day meeting later on Tuesday. While a high bar has been set for another round of stimulus, the market will nonetheless be keeping a close watch on policy makers given the still fragile U.S. economic recovery. And despite the good news in the U.S. housing market, investors remained clearly focused on problems in Europe. “The most closely watched event was the Dutch auction following the recent political developments in the Netherlands,” said Mark McCormick, G-10 currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. “The total of 2 billion euros sold falls short the maximum target of 2.5 billion euros but yields in the secondary market are down.” The Netherlands, one of the euro zone’s few remaining AAA-rated economies, sold 1.995 billion euros of two- and 25-year government bonds, roughly in the middle of its target range. The previous day, Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned following a dispute with the populist Freedom Party over spending cuts needed to meet European Union budget limits. MOODY’S Ratings agency Moody’s said the collapse of the Dutch government after failing to agree on austerity cuts was credit-negative, although it maintained the country’s triple-A rating. Last week, Fitch warned it was on the verge of taking negative action on the rating. The failure of the Dutch government could also add another complicating factor for the euro zone as a whole. “Another implication of the collapse of the Dutch government is that it could create some difficulties in ratifying the euro zone Fiscal Compact,” said Brown Brothers Harriman’s McCormick. Many investors also showed concern about events in France where Socialist Francois Hollande – who has promised to renegotiate a European budget pact – won the first round of France’s presidential poll on Sunday. The second round of the French presidential election is on May 6, the same day that Greece elects a new government, while Ireland faces a referendum on the European Union fiscal compact later in May. “As we move into May and June we could see further volatility and turmoil,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London. RBA WATCH The Australian dollar hit a two-week low against the U.S. dollar after soft inflation data fueled expectations of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Aussie was down 0.1 percent at US$1.0306, but off the session low, on data showing Australian consumer prices climbed less than expected last quarter while underlying inflation posted the smallest rise in a decade. The safe-haven yen was broadly steady, trading close to flat against the U.S. dollar at 81.14 yen.

Rebuilding Together, national nonprofits tackle REO issue | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate

Home repair and community development nonprofit Rebuilding Together is working with national housing organizations to rehabilitate real estate owned properties nationwide.

The groups involved, which include Rebuilding Together, NeighborWorks America and the National Community Stabilization Trust, are rolling out a multipronged approach to improving neighborhoods left vacant in the wake of the foreclosure crisis.

As part of the three-year partnership, the groups will be focused on first building up the Rebuilding Together affiliates nationwide, while giving them more resources to buy, rehabilitate and resell REO properties to help communities impacted by foreclosure.

The second step will be to expand the NeighborWorks America loan modification scam alert campaign to ensure more homeowners have the advice needed to protect themselves from loan modification scams.

The final step will be to give one local Rebuilding Together organization a chance to partake in NeighborWorks America’s board governance program that trains nonprofits to enhance their use of existing homeownership tools.

“Today’s announcement between NeighborWorks America, the National Community Stabilization Trust, and Rebuilding Together brings together three of the nation’s most experienced affordable housing nonprofits and leverages the unique skills and experience of each organization to help transform low-income neighborhoods devastated by the housing crisis,” said Gary Officer, president and CEO of Rebuilding Together.

“It also provides excellent resources to Rebuilding Together, as we expand our capacity to transforming REOs and complements the ongoing work of our mission by providing safe and healthy housing.”

FHFA: Home prices rise 0.3% in February | Pound Ridge NY Real Estate

The nation’s home prices rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from January to February, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly house price index.

For the 12 months ended February, home prices rose 0.4%, the first 12-month increase since the July 2006 to July 2007 interval. The index remains 19.4% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as its January 2004 level.

While prices in January were unchanged, according to initial estimates reported in the last HPI release, the January result was revised downward to reflect a 0.5% decrease.

Click on the graph below for the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly appreciation rates over the past 18 months.

The FHFA calculates its monthly index using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Short sales top REO at JPMorgan Chase | Armonk NY Real Estate

JPMorgan Chase ($42.85 0%) completed short sales on 61% of its delinquent mortgage liquidations in 2011, the most of any servicer, according to data compiled by the bank’s securities research group.

As the robo-signing freeze put a hold on the foreclosure process, the largest servicers turned to short sales over REO. By the end of last year, servicers were completing short sales on more than half of their inventory of home loans more than 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure, according to the report. In 2008, short sales took roughly 25% of all liquidations.

According to Chase analysts, short selling a property resulted in an average 56% loss on the loan, roughly 15% lower than an REO sale.

A recent story in Bloomberg detailed how short sales peaked even as a percentage of overall home sales in January.

Analysts at Chase, using the same Lender Processing Services ($25.49 0%) data, broke down which servicers were doing the most.

Following Chase, Bank of America ($8.18 0%) completed short sales on 52% of its liquidations. Ally Financial and Wells Fargo ($33.04 0.35%) both did short sales on more than 41% of their resolutions.

Even firms not involved in the robo-signing investigation from the attorneys general turned to short sales. While still under Goldman Sachs ($112.78 1.03%) ownership, 43% of Litton Loan Servicing liquidations were short sales, followed by 43% at IndyMac and 39% of American Home Mortgage Servicing, according to the report.

Ocwen Financial Services ($14.71 0%) used short sales the least, completing them on roughly 25% liquidations, because the company was geared more toward modificaitons and REO, according to the analysts.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will hold servicers to stricter short sale timelines beginning in June. The AGs and federal prosecutors installed similar short sale standards in the $25 billion foreclosure settlement as well. A recent report from RealtyTrac showed 2012 could lead to even more short sales.

Chase analysts project servicers will have to liquidate roughly 2 million loans either through short sale or REO every year for the foreseeable future.

“Given that liquidation is inevitable for so many borrowers, investors in distressed assets should look to servicers who are more aggressive about pursuing short sales, where severities are lower,” analysts said in the report. “In general, there has been a trend of increasing short sales, and the percentage of all liquidations that goes through short sales is over 45% now.”

S&P/Case-Shiller: Home prices in nine metros reach new lows | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

Home prices fell to post-recession lows in the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national indices.  Home values in nine metro areas also reached record lows, the report said.  

S&P said its 10-city composite index experienced an annual home price decline of 3.6% in February, while the 20-city composite index declined 3.5% from a year earlier. 

This is a slight improvement from January when the indices declined 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively, year-over-year. 

“While there might be pieces of good news in this report, such as some improvement in many annual rates of return, February 2012 data confirm that, broadly-speaking, home prices continued to decline in the early months of the year,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices.

“Nine MSAs — Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa — hit new post-crisis lows. Atlanta continued its downward spiral, posting its lowest annual rate of decline in the 20-year history of the index at -17.3%.”

The Atlanta metro area suffered the worst, experiencing a year-over-year home price decline of 17.3%.

Five metros did see positive annual returns, including Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Phoenix. 

Blitzer added, “Atlanta has now recorded five consecutive months of double-digit negative annual rates and seven consecutive monthly declines. On the other hand, Phoenix has posted two consecutive months of positive annual rates, with its latest being positive 3.3%, and five consecutive positive monthly returns.” 

Inflation, Producer Price Index | Bedford Hills Real Estate

In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses inflation and the producer price index.

  • Inflation may not become a problem.  Producer prices show a decelerating trend with a price increase of 2.8 percent from one year ago, which is notably lower than the 6 to 8 percent rise over most of last year.  The producer prices at both the intermediate and crude state of production also showed deceleration.
  • Producer prices are not consumer prices but they generally have an impact over time, so a retreat in inflation pressure is overall good news.  If inflation decelerates further then the monetary policy does not have to be tightened and can continue to remain loose for an extended time period.  Also bond investors would not need additional premium in terms of higher interest rates to compensate for any future loss in the purchasing power of money.
  • As everyone knows, gasoline prices and food prices have been clearly eating into consumers’ pocketbooks this year.  But a slower pace in producer prices may portend no further acceleration to consumer prices.  This does not mean consumers will be better off.  It just means that the $4 per gallon at the gas pump, for example, could indeed stay with us, but it is now much less likely to reach a higher price of $5 per gallon any time soon.
  • Because of some improvement in home sales and the anticipation of about a 25 percent jump in housing starts in each of the next two years, log and timber prices have been kicking higher.
  • Separately, the number of people filing for unemployment checks for the first time rose in the past week, reversing the steadily declining trend.  A rise to 380,000 in the past week is not anything alarming.  The fact that it is less than 400,000 per week would be consistent with about 2 million net new job creations this year.  Even in the best of economic times, there are always people who get fired or get laid-off each week and file for unemployed checks.  Still, faster job recovery is needed to not only bring down the number of first-time filers, but bring measurably down the number of people who have been unemployed for more than half a year, which still remains at historically high levels.

Remarks At Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago Meeting, April 18, 2012 | Mount Kisco Real Estate

Jed Smith discussed the real estate outlook and associated economic risks at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago’s meeting of the Mortgage Partnership Finance and Advisory Council on April 18 in Chicago. Smith indicted that the current economic expansion is expected to continue for the next several years, but the current expansion is the weakest since the Great Depression and is characterized by high unemployment and underemployment, limited job growth, difficult credit conditions, and continued concern over a variety of basically unpredictable economic factors such as oil prices, sovereign state credit issues, and government deficits.

The good news is that Existing Home Sales, reported by NAR on a monthly basis, appear to have stabilized and seem to be on the upswing. According to the Realtors® Confidence Index survey, Realtors® are increasingly optimistic about the residential sales outlook. In addition, residential home prices seem to be stabilizing as inventories of homes for sale decline.

The bad news tempering the economic outlook is the jobs situation and government deficit. Job creation continues at well under 200,000 a month, and continued government deficits are not sustainable. Smith noted that some major policy changes in terms of government spending, taxes, and incentives are likely in the future—and there is always a risk that changing economic policies could make the overall economy worse.

Noting President Eisenhower’s famous quote about wanting a one armed economist (avoiding “on the other hand”) Smith noted that on a short term basis we should expect to see continued improvement in the economy and the residential and commercial real estate markets. Smith noted that there seems to be some additional pent-up demand that could come onto the market in the foreseeable future and that consumer surveys indicate that owning a home continues to be a key part of the American dream.

Fannie and Freddie Mistakes | North Salem NY Real Estate

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: the mere mention of them arouses passionate anger in many people.  Rightly so.  These two entities, which had taxpayer guarantees, ran their businesses as if they were privately owned.  Fannie and Freddie made huge bets on the housing market.  If it had been their money and their loss, then there would be no problem.  But their mistakes took taxpayers down as well.

What went wrong and what needs to happen?  Fannie Mae was born from the Great Depression in the 1930s to help bring mortgages to the ailing housing market of the time.  Fannie was a government corporation (not a private corporation) with the single mission of increasing liquidity by buying up soundly underwritten mortgages.  Because of Fannie and its government status, 30-year fixed rate mortgages became widely available.  Canada and Britain, for example, do not have long-term mortgages, or least not at low cost, because they do not have a Fannie equivalent with government guarantees.

Fannie, as a government corporation, like the current the Federal Reserve for example, never needed taxpayer funding because its revenue always covered its cost of operation.  Fannie was a very boring entity with very boring business model, always playing behind the scene of the housing market.

Then around 1970, Fannie was privatized.  Freddie was introduced as a government sponsored enterprise at around this time to add some competition to Fannie.  Even though the companies were private – with the right to pursue profits for shareholders – both still carried an implicit government backing in the marketplace, which we know in retrospect to have been an explicit government backing.  But the mangers of Fannie and Freddie, even though they had easy borrowing costs because of their government ties, thought of themselves as profit-maximizers and were slowly and increasingly gambling with taxpayers’ money.  During the good years, huge multi-million dollar bonus checks were paid out to managers.  For many years, the Washingtonian magazine, which carries light local news about local events and restaurant recommendations, named Fannie and Freddie as two of the best places to work in the Washington D.C. area, evidently suggesting great perks to employees.

Then the housing market crash happened.  And lo and behold – taxpayers were on the hook for massive losses.  Such entities, with perverse incentives and the ability to mete out private profits during good times and taxpayer losses during bad times, should never have been permitted.

Currently the discussion is now over the reform, restructuring or even elimination of Fannie and Freddie.  We should very mindful of what worked and what did not. What worked is the pre-1970s model as a government corporation that took a behind-the-scenes role.  What did not is the strange model of private profit with taxpayer backing.

If the eventual goal is to make Fannie and Freddie into pure private companies then we should expect higher mortgage rates, more short-term mortgages, and the occurrence of total market freezes in times of a financial market crisis.  Ask any commercial real estate practitioner about commercial mortgages in the past few years, mortgages which do not carry government backing.  Ask jumbo loan borrowers about the mortgage rate they pay because of the purely private jumbo mortgage market.  In addition, large ‘purely private’ financial institutions will always be considered too-big-to-fail and taxpayers will be asked to come to the rescue at some point in the future.

If the restructuring is to return these entities to their status as a government corporation then we will have steady mortgage liquidity, continuing availability of 30-year fixed rate mortgages, and probably no taxpayer bailout (as happened prior to the 1970s and like the Federal Reserve today).

It is my view that government can never produce interesting consumer products.  A government bureaucratic culture is too stifling for entrepreneurs and innovators.  The Apple iPhone, for example, simply could not be produced out of Washington.  However, there is something that government may be good at and that is producing a boring product.  There is next to nothing as boring as a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.  It requires no innovation.  If consumers have demonstrated good credit and are willing to stay well within their budget, then the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is one of the safest financial products on the market.  And because of the government corporation status, consumers will be able to tap mortgages at a lower rate than would be possible under a pure privatization model.  If the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was good for grandpa then it will be good for our grandkids in the future.

Though Fannie and Freddie still report headline financial losses because of legacy assets on the books from the housing bubble years, they have been raking in good internal profits on new mortgages underwritten for taxpayers since being taken over by the government in 2008.  Fannie and Freddie, in other words, have in essence acted as if they are a government corporation and good bottom-line results have been flowing out for both consumers and taxpayers.  That is why NAR is opposed to the pure privatization of Fannie and Freddie.

Rents Accelerating | Waccabuc NY Real Estate

By now most are aware of the rising rent phenomenon.  Our Realtor® survey indicated only a sliver of the market will see falling rents, with a vast majority of areas experiencing positive though not higher than 5 percent rent growth.  According to the ‘rent index’ in the consumer price index as measured by government statisticians, rents are rising by 2.5 percent.

Rent growth will, more likely than not, accelerate higher.  Demand for rentals has been much greater than the supply coming onto the market.  It is just inevitable that rents will rise at a faster rate over the next 12 to 18 months, unless there is another economic recession or if there is sudden ramp-up housing permits for multifamily units.  Multifamily housing starts are slowly coming around.  But they are still well below normal and there is a lag time between starts and eventual completion.  In addition, the number of single-family homes available for rent is no doubt shrinking because of the overall decline in inventory of homes for sale.  Therefore, rent growth in 2013 may reach 5 percent on average.  San Jose may even witness 10 percent rent growth because of Facebook millionaires.