Daily Archives: March 16, 2011

Greenspan and the housing market slump MarketWatch First Take – MarketWatch

That quote would be pretty spot on if summing up the housing starts figures released Wednesday by the Commerce Department, showing a slump of 22.5%. See story on housing starts.

But it was said by a noted economic observer a day earlier — Alan Greenspan.

Trouble in the housing market

Stocks are falling after a weak report on housing starts, and another that shows producer prices rising sharply, as well as the continuing crisis in Japan. Kathleen Madigan and Paul Vigna report.

 “Even though there is a modest and actually a reasonable, good recovery in equipment and software, the structures part of capital investment is dead in the water.”

 

The former Federal Reserve chairman may not at first blush strike one as the right person to seek out for views on construction, seeing as he neither predicted nor prevented the housing crash. Near the end of 2006, when starts were about three times as high, Greenspan said he suspected that “we are coming to the end of this downtrend.”

He also saw bottoms in 2008 and 2009. So perhaps the best, current news for housing is that the man once called The Oracle isn’t forecasting a bottom anytime soon.

What the former Fed chairman is saying is that the slump in both residential and commercial construction is due to government activism.

Greenspan, who delivered a speech Tuesday defending his recently published academic paper, argues that government activism is what’s at fault. “Having disaggregated the stimulus program, it is really awesome how close the issue of the shortfall in capital investment, quarter by quarter, matches the official data on government deficits,” he said, according to a transcript of his remarks.

He says that a fifth of the pullback in capital investment is due to crowding out by the federal government deficit.

Of course, that’s always been Greenspan’s view, that the market will right itself if you just leave it alone. He says that’s the case of the stock market, and he’s right, if you ignore TARP, the auto bailouts and the Fed’s $2.3 trillion or so worth of quantitative easing.

So maybe Greenspan finally got it right this time, which would suggest that housing will come back just as soon as Washington tackles the deficit, which clearly won’t be tomorrow. Or maybe he’s right for the somewhat related issue that a huge inventory of cheap homes has yet to be absorbed. Or maybe, as most of his previous analysis has been, he’ll be off base again.

You never can tell with The Oracle that’s always right, until he’s wrong.

 

via marketwatch.com

Five Things You Need To Know About Japan’s Debt Crisis

japan tsunami

The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan (NYSE:EWJ) on Friday has caused tragic devastation to lives and property, but Japan may soon be over-whelmed by a debt crisis tsunami of epic proportions.

With crony deficit spending by the Japanese government having destroyed its economy over the last two decades; Japan now has a real national crisis that will force the government to engage in massive deficit spending.

There is a strong risk of a financial melt-down in the world’s most indebted nation.

After the credit-induced boom in the late 1980s, Japan’s high rate of growth stumbled and bank loan defaults sky-rocketed. Over the last twenty years, asset prices are down by 65% for the Nikkei stock index, 50% for residential real estate, and 70% for commercial real estate. The centrally planned Japanese government responded to this crisis of falling asset values with wave after wave of colossal deficit spending stimulus. Japan’s public debt rose from virtually nothing to 225% of gross domestic product, but the economy has remained stagnant.

Japan is sitting on central government debt approaching one quadrillion (one thousand trillion) Yen and central government revenues are approx ¥48 trillion. Their ratio of central government debt to revenue is a fatal 20x.

Both Japan and the USA need interest rates to stay low to fund their enormous deficits. According to J. Kyle Bass’ Hayman Capital, every 100 basis point change in the weighted-average cost of capital (interest rates) is roughly equal to 25% of Japan’s central government’s tax revenue.

Put another way, a 200 basis point move higher over time in Japan’s interest rates will increase their interest expense by more than ¥20 trillion. If Japan had to borrow at France’s rates (a AAA-rated member of the U.N. Security Council), the interest burden alone would bankrupt the island nation.

Japan has engaged in about the same level of 7% deficit spending as the US has averaged for the last two years, except Japan has sustained this level of spending for the last twenty years. Normally, heavy deficit spending quickly exhausts a nation’s internal markets to buy its own debt and the country is forced to auction bonds at higher and higher interest rates to outsiders; which also increases the costs of the debt and forces the nation to sell even more debt. At some point the country becomes so indebted that credit agencies downgrade the country’s quality rating to junk, foreigners refuse to buy new debt, and the country defaults. Japan has avoided this deficit financing end-game, because the nation has been able to finance 95% of its debt at home. Over the last year Greece with a third less and Ireland with less than half the debt to GDP ratio of Japan, imploded when foreigners refused to invest.

In the USA we’re not that far behind. According to Congressional Budget Office data, every one percentage point move in the weighted-average cost of capital at the end of the day will cost the US $142 billion annually in interest alone. A move back to 5% short rates will increase annual US interest expense by approx $700 billion annually vs. current US government revenues of $2.228 trillion.

As deficit spending has remained extraordinarily high for such a long period, Japan has maintained a 41% corporate tax rate; the highest in the world, 10% above the US and Europe and triple the fast growing Asian economies of Taiwan and Singapore. This has made Japan an unattractive location for private investment. The complete lack job security for young workers who can only find temporary employment has made life difficult for new families and caused the birth rate for Japanese women to be cut in half. Lower family formation has caused the household savings rate for the thrifty Japanese to fall from 5% at the end of the 1990’s to just above 2% currently.

Japan has maintained current-account surplus and has been sending more than 3% of its GDP abroad, providing more than $175 billion of funds this year for other countries to borrow. This paradox of a stunningly indebted nation financing the world is explained by a combination of high corporate saving and low levels of residential and non-residential fixed investment due to poor investment opportunities in Japan. That money is gone after this crisis. Millions of Japanese savers are about to start spending their savings on essentials, since they have lost their jobs and businesses due to the damage. Tokyo Electric Power Company will suffer losses of over $100 billion from its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant melt-down and most of Japan’s northern corporate facilities that hug the eastern coastline have been destroyed or incapacitated. Japan averages one earthquake every four minutes, but Friday’s quake and tsunami were both the largest in the history of the country. Earthquake insurance in Japan is very expensive and only 10% of homeowners buy coverage. Therefore, the Japanese government will be on the hook for several hundred billion in infrastructure and reconstruction costs.

Many naive analysts are commenting about how this natural disaster will be good for the Japanese economy, because of the substantial rebuilding program. That might have been true if Japan was not already on the verge of a man-made debt disaster prior to this natural disaster. Standard & Poor’s credit rating service (NYSE:MHP) had just downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt to AA- in mid-January. The huge increase in the costs for welfare and unemployment payments, the economic disruption, the scale of the devastation, the lack of insurance and the minimum five years to rebuild the country may take Japan’s credit rating down to “junk bond” levels. The earthquake and tsunami that have devastated Japan came with quickly and violently. The debt crisis tsunami has been building for twenty years and may be much more devastating to the future of Japan (NYSE:EWJ).

This post originally appeared at Wall St. Cheat Sheet.

New Link Research Tools Features: That’s What You’ve Been Dreaming about!

About 6 month ago I have done a detailed review of Link Research Tools – and most of our readers were amazed by the range of options available inside. Well, the creators haven’t stopped there. Throughout these 6 months they have been improving the tool with some awesome features that require a separate article.

Competitive Landscape Analyzer

This tool basically does all the competition comparison for you. All it needs is a keyword, your URL and the market (Google-countr and language).

It then goes out and compares the back links and a lot of different metrics for each of your competitors (up to 10) against yours.

This tool quickly answers questions like

If you have enough brand links, or not. The recent updates in Google make this a crucial information for your link building strategy…

  • Sometimes you really need more brand links

Sometimes you need more brand links

  • Sometimes you have enough and can do more links for the “money keyword” links

you can do more money keyword links

If you have enough themed links compared to the competition (it does the theming of the links automatically);

Missing a few well themed links here

If you have the right mix of links compared to the competition (e.g blog links vs. forum links vs. news/media links etc)

Do you need more blog links?

If you have enough or too less FOLLOW vs. NOFOLLOW links compared to your competition;

sometimes more NOFOLLOW links are recommended

Or if for example your back links are missing the number of retweets that your competition has

missing retweeted back links

All the above information (and more) can be generated by just entering a keyword, your URL and the market and the values that you want to analyze.

Based on these results you can quickly

  • Identify the reason(s) why you might have dropped from a top search position;
  • Develop your link building strategy to match up with the top 10;
  • Find out why your link building strategy might not work as expected;

This tool is more advanced than anything I’ve seen in the SEO tool market and I must admit I didn’t find enough time to play around with it as much as I wanted to. It’s so interesting I would love to dig through the results all day long.

This video takes you through the whole tool as well:

 

Link Alerts

That’s just what you are most likely to have been waiting for or even dreaming of! The tool that would track your referrals and external databases and report your newly-acquired (naturally generated) backlinks:

  • Track your backlinks efficiently to evaluate your content and marketing efforts;
  • Manage your online reputation: always be there to support brand-related sources;
  • Learn who your new friends are: support your supporters, etc

Of course you can also use the same to to hunt down the links that your competition is earning

  • where are your competitors building / earning links;
  • where are they losing links? this might be an option for you;
  • understand their tactics and patterns and replicate them;

The tool has a few options:

  • Track your referrals (needs to be authorized to Google Analytics or Statcounter);
  • Track backlinks detected by SEOmoz tool (requires free SEOmoz API). Majestic SEO integration is in beta test;
  • Track backlinks from other 13 sources:

Link Alerts

Link Alerts are generally updated multiple times a week depending on your link growth. You’ll get an email notice once you have a new alert generated.

Link Profile on Steroids

Besides tons of data, the tool was already able to process and organize, there have been added some very important filtering and analysis options:

  • Filter out sitewide links (you can set the number of pages per domain containing the backlink after which the link is considered sitewide);
  • Dynamic AJAX filters for all link profiles in ALL tools (this means you can easily look at the distribution of ACrank and other values for all keyword containing SEO or anything else);
  • More link types: my favorite is “mention” that lets you find pages linking to your site from within content. Obviously those are super-easy link building targets as it often only needs a brief email to make them convert the mention to a link.

Mention links

Brandable Reports & XLS/PDF exports

Agencies using the superhero account can now export all reports including all the link profile charts into nice PDF and XLS reports and send them directly, branded with their logo to the client. No more downloading and converting CSV files. The logo branding also works in the online interface, which is great for on-site work with the clients.

Social Media Statistics

Social media analysis is being heavily integrated in the reports. You can now see how the pages linking to your domain are liked, tweeted, dugg, stumbled and reditted:

Backlinks + social media statistics

You can also compare your social media efforts with your competitors:

Social media - competitive research

Local Links Detector

This is an invaluable addition for all locally-oriented businesses (which I don’t have expertise in, so I wasn’t able to enjoy the tool to its full potential). A great example of how to use the tool and where it can turn particularly useful is offered on the tool official page “Local Back Link Data – CITY and COUNTRY value” – and I guess these screenshots are worth thousands of words:

Backlink data filtered by state:

Filter Links by US state

Local link distribution:

Local City distribution for your links

More to look at…

There’s more videos out there where you can watch actual competitor research for “cheap flights” being done with the Link Research Tools in part 1 & 2 here and the 3rd part that analyzes impact of Retweets and Facebook likes here.
The 3rd video is especially interesting as it shows you how you can easily replicate experiments as the one done by SEOmoz in December yourself.

Currently there’s still a promo out on twitter where you can get free access to the tools for a tweet – you could try that.

I’d love to hear your opinion on all those awesome improvements!

Check out the SEO Tools guide at Search Engine Journal

New Link Research Tools Features: That’s What You’ve Been Dreaming about!

Race/ Ethnicity of Home Buyers, 2003-2010

Capture

 

  • The race/ethnicity of home buyers over the last 10 years has remained fairly unchanged.
  • White/Caucasian home buyers are typically 85 percent to 81 percent of the home buying market. In 2010, the share of white/Caucasian home buyers was 82 percent.
  • Black/African American home buyers and Hispanic/Latino home buyers each account of 6 percent of the home buying market.
  • Asian/Pacific Islander home buyers typically account for 5 percent of the home buying market.
  • For more information on the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers go to: http://realtors.org/research/research/home_buyers_sellers_maps