Daily Archives: January 7, 2011

Miller Samuel Real Estate Predictions for 2011

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Jonathan Miller,

president/CEO, Miller Samuel

Q: What do you think will happen with the residential market in New York City in 2011?

A: I don’t know if there is much to get excited about. I think in 2011 we may see a market that moves sideways, with certain possibilities for some price erosion. It really depends on where employment levels go and where credit goes. Hopefully we will see meaningful improvement. But unless we do, it’s hard to see housing lead us out of this. … [Also], it would likely vary borough by borough because some boroughs have a heavy concentration of foreclosures, which are anticipated to continue rising.

Q: After a massive falloff in early 2009, residential sales in Manhattan bounced back somewhat in 2010. Do you expect that to continue in 2011?

A: What is impressive about the market is how quickly we saw activity rebound from the dire levels of the first half of 2009. But the activity of 2010 was either partially stimulus, low interest rates, first-time tax credits or pent-up demand from 2009. Going into 2011 we don’t have much changing. That’s why I view it as more leveling off and possibly some slippage in some markets. Hopefully [there will be improvement] sooner than later, but as it stands right now it’s unrealistic to expect any kind of robust activity [this] year.

Q: Which price range of the residential market do you expect to do best in New York over the next year?

A: I would say the middle of the market that relies on conforming mortgage financing — a $729,000-to-$750,000 mortgage cap — which would mean under a million or low millions.

Q: What do you expect the biggest challenges to be in the coming year in the New York residential market?

A: No. 1 is what happens with municipal taxes; the budget shortfall for the city is a local concern. The other is interest rates as they begin to trend higher, because they have been manipulated and are artificially low. What happens when that pressure is removed would be another significant worry. The next is shadow inventory. Lenders are still in full pretend-and-extend mode. Lenders are doing everything they can to delay the inevitable. Inventory, aside from shadow inventory, is consistent with historic norms right now. So is sales activity, in general. The most important thing people can do in 2011 is to stop looking at 2003 to 2007. That was the anomaly.

Q: New development condos were obviously hit hard during the recession. How do you expect new development condos to perform in the coming year?

A: I think the days of new condo development are going to be on hiatus, at least for the next couple of years. The majority of the new product coming out is going to be rental, and even then it will be nowhere near the scale of new market entries that we saw. Ultimately a lot of the shadow will be converted to rental or sold over the next three to five years.

Q: What do you think will happen with lending in 2011?

A: It will probably get easier, but it won’t ease as quickly as we need to keep housing from seeing more weakness. If you think about where we are right now, no matter what you are being told, lenders are looking for reasons not to lend. We truly are building a triple-A mortgage portfolio with these banks because all of the new product is clean as a whistle; now triple A actually means something. From a long-term perspective it feels like we are going in the right direction, but it’s at a crawl.

Blog To Win

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1. Acknowledge Your Biggest Fans

Do you have fans that re-tweet your posts, email your articles to friends, and send new business your way? What have you done for them? Have you at least taken the time to thank them?

You should always monitor your brand, your website link and your own name (I use SocialMention). Every time someone says something nice about you, you should thank them. If you can do something else in return, by all means do.

2. Understand the Golden Rule of Blogging

Most blogs don’t appeal to the audience they’re writing for. The writing may be good, but the topics aren’t. Let’s say you sell furniture. Your blog shouldn’t be about your specials, the new employee you hired or about your vacation to Hawaii. Your blog should be about furniture.

Always ask yourself this question: who am I writing for? What kind of content do they want? It doesn’t matter if you don’t offer all the services you write about. For example, I own an Internet marketing agency and my audience is business owners. But, I don’t only write about online marketing; I write about topics that are of interest to business owners, such as lowering costs, motivating employees and off-line marketing.

Find out what your audience wants and give it to them.

3. Use Decoy Offers

Have you ever wondered why some stores sell an item for $100 and in the price tags says “Was $200″? It makes the current price look a lot better. Some people might think $100 is a lot of money for that item, but hey, it was $200, so you’re getting a great deal, right? Well, believe it or not, it works. This is because everything is either a great deal or an awful deal based on what you compare it with.

Psychologists call this “the principle of contrast.”  How can you use this to your benefit? My favorite way is to present two or more offers. One will be your current offer and then you’ll add some decoy offers. The decoy offers will be really bad deals, but they’ll make your main offer look great. For example, you can sell one can of your product at $19 and three cans at $25 with free shipping and feature this last offer as the weekly special. Try it; it works like a charm and there’s nothing unethical about it. You’ll keep your main offer and all you’re doing is making it look better by adding some not-so-attractive offers.

4. Write Your Marketing Copy First and Develop Your Product Around It

I’ve found this tactic to be extremely effective. Instead of creating a product and then writing the marketing message, I like writing the copy first because by trying to sell it with words, I get a much better understanding of what the audience really wants and I can give them that product or service.

5. People Buy from People, Not Companies

Your customers might have known your company first, but they bought from you because they liked you or the salesperson they dealt with. This is especially true in B2B. The takeaway here is: do a good job explaining how your company can help your clients but do an even better job connecting with your prospects at a personal level.

Read more: http://www.searchenginejournal.com/5-internet-marketing-tips-for-the-new-year/26780/#ixzz1AOyPIt3h

Empire State Building Goes Completely Green

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The Empire State Building may be an iconic part of New York, but right now the famous building is in a green state of mind.

It was announced that the building, which is the tallest in NYC, will undergo a multimillion dollar renovation process and is buying 100% wind power from Green Mountain Energy. A two-year contract was signed for 55 million kilowatt hours of renewable energy annually, which is expected to reduce energy use by 40%, and eliminate 100 million pounds of carbon dioxide emissions. Which, just to give you an idea, is equivalent to planting 150,000 trees— more than six times the number in Central Park.

“It was a natural fit for us to combine 100% clean energy with our nearly completed, groundbreaking energy efficiency retrofit work,” said Anthony E. Malkin, president of Malkin Holdings, which runs the building. “Clean energy and our nearly 40% reduced consumption of watts and BTUs gives us a competitive advantage in attracting the best credit tenants at the best rents.”

The initiative then not only benefits the environment, but hopes to draw in fresh tenants looking to improve their surroundings in eco-friendly style

Arah Schuur is the director of a conservation program at Bill Clinton‘s foundation and told USA Today that, “It’s the most recognizable building energy retrofit in the world.”

Schools in Bedford | Mount Kisco Elementary School | Mt Kisco Real Estate

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Mount Kisco Elementary School

 

<< Bedford Central School District

School Overview

 

Address

47 W Hyatt Ave

Mount Kisco, NY 10549

(914) 666-2677

School Website

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Profile

Grades: K – 5

School Type: Public

Student Enrollment: 500

Students Per Teacher: 10

Parent Reviews

(11 reviews)

11 Parent Reviews for Mount Kisco Elementary School

 

Info

MKES is the best kept secret in Westchester County. Excellent leadership and talented teachers create an environment where all children can reach their fullest potential. … Read more Read less

Posted by a parent on 10/08/09

Our school is great example of how a student body can embrace its diversity and make it its greatest strength! … Read more Read less

Posted by a parent on 10/08/09

We have an incredible staff at MKES. The Principal and teachers are committed to giving our kids the best education. My kids love going to school every day. They are getting a wonderful education and having a great school experience. … Read more Read less

Posted by a parent on 10/07/09

We like the school very much. Principal is exceptional. Never had a bad teacher. Hope it all continues for 2 more years! … Read more Read less

Posted by a parent on 08/06/09

I think that some of the teachers are certainly not very good, most of them are slightly grumpy, some more than others. I do think that they do much too much math, and i felt that they almost never challenged anyone who was good at spelling, and did not stress literecy not even half as much as they … Read more stressed math . Though i think the 3rd grade teachers are quite competent. Read less

Posted by a other on 05/09/09

Majority of students are Hispanic/Central American. My son felt out of place, overwhelmed and underappreciated. Not much of anything is given to smart/gifted kids as far as I could see. … Read more Read less

Posted by a parent on 01/22/09

It’s too bad Mount Kisco Elemetary and the town of Mount Kisco get such a ‘bad’ rap from the surrounding communities. My children have had the best experience and great education at MKES! The world is a diverse and every changing place so why not allow our children to experience it first hand. The … Read more faculty and principal at MKES have been outstanding. Allowing children to excel according to their learning style and needs. Staff is professional and communicates well with parents. Only wish they had continued the Dual Language program. Read less

Posted by a parent on 02/26/07

My child has attended this school since Kindergarten. His experience has been nothing but the best. Most Kindergarten teachers are great and focus on having the kids do their best at their own pace. The first grade team has been an outstanding experience for my child. The teachers work closely with … Read more each child based on their level of knowledge and encourage them to improve and do their best. My son now is a fantastic reader. The principal is outstanding. Always taking the time to speak to you, the children and also participate in their activities and learning. The school has a great parents association (MKESA).The extracurricular activities are fantastic. (e.g. after school courses). The school has a new building, added to the old, which opened this year. Read less

Posted by a parent on 05/08/06

I have found this school to be wonderful. They provide enriching programs for the students and care for their academic needs. My daughter has been very happy here for the last two years. … Read more Read less

Posted by a parent on 07/22/05

The teachers and the administrators are great at MKES. The challenge is the changing population of the children at the school and the school districts ability to provide adequate resources. Currently over 20% of the children are not proficient in English and that population is growing. It is definitely … Read more a cause for concern. Read less

Posted by a parent on 12/04/04

Mortgage Rates Have Hit Bottom in Lewisboro NY | Lewisboro NY Real Estate

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MORTGAGE rates in 2010 were the lowest in six decades, but a recent and sustained increase may indicate that consumers can expect to pay more in the new year to buy or refinance a home.

After hitting rock bottom in mid-November, fixed rates for 30-year mortgages, the most common type of home loan, have steadily risen.

With this year’s historically low rates, “there is a good chance that we have peaked, give or take a few basis points,” said HSH Associates, an independent publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information, in its most recent trends forecast. (One basis point is 0.01 percent.) According to Christopher J. Mayer, a senior vice dean and a professor of real estate, finance and economics at the Columbia University Business School, “The window of low rates could have left us.”

By Dec. 16, rates for a 30-year fixed loan rose for the fifth consecutive week, to 4.83 percent, up from 4.17 percent on Nov. 11, according to Freddie Mac, the government-controlled buyer of loans. Rates in the Northeast, which are often a tenth of a point or more above the national level, were on average the same as those across the nation. But by Thursday they had nudged downward, to 4.81 percent.

Mortgage rates typically track those of 10-year and 30-year Treasury and other government bonds. Yields, or interest rates, on those notes have been rising amid lender concerns that the White House’s deal with Congress on Dec. 7. to extend the Bush-era tax cuts and the Federal Reserve’s move in early November to buy back $600 billion in debt to stimulate economic growth will combine to fuel inflation and swell the budget deficit.

The 4.17 rate last month was the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971 — as well as the lowest since World War II, according to Weiss Research, a financial analysis and publishing firm in Jupiter, Fla. The high point last year was 5.21 percent, in April.

So if you took out a 30-year fixed note for $400,000 at the recent 4.83 percent, you are paying $93 less per month than you would have in April — but nearly $157 more than you would have at the 4.17 percent benchmark.

Refinancing or buying a home is still more affordable, compared with the rates of 6 percent to 8 percent over most of this decade. (A table of historical rates is at http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm)

 

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Notable Bedford NY Residents | Bedford NY Real Estate

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Takes 600 Days To Foreclose in NY | Chappaqua Real Estate

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Six hundred days. That’s how long, on average, mortgage loans in the foreclosure process in New York have been delinquent.

That’s the longest average in the nation, but not by much, according to LPS Applied Analytics, in Jacksonville, Fla. Loans in foreclosure in Florida, New Jersey, Hawaii and Maine have been delinquent more than 500 days, on average, while home loans in California and Nevada have been delinquent 461 and 427 days, respectively. In the two speediest states, Nebraska and Wyoming, loans in the foreclosure process are delinquent by an average of 358 days.

Those statistics raise a question: Why do foreclosures take so long?

Some states use a judicial process. The causes of delays in judicial foreclosure states include backlogged courts, antiquated systems and judges’ schedules, says Shari Olefson, an attorney with Fowler White Boggs in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and author of “Foreclosure Nation,” a book about the subprime mortgage crisis.

In one case, Olefson says, “We went down for the hearing and the judge said, that morning, you are moved to (another) judge, and we went to that judge, and the earliest hearing date he has is April.”

The problem may be most severe in Florida, which has the highest number of foreclosures in the country, according to Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac, a foreclosure information service in Irvine. The backlog in Florida has been so severe that the state has set up separate courts and brought in retired judges to handle foreclosure cases.

Government officials and agencies cause delays through temporary moratoriums, mandatory mediation sessions and loan modification or assistance programs such as the federal Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP.

Mortgage servicers — the companies that process monthly payments — have been equally ill-equipped to handle the large volume of foreclosures. While it may seem counterintuitive, they have reasons to drag their feet:

Servicers’ philosophies and directives are “constantly in flux,” Olefson says. One may need to raise cash to meet regulatory guidelines, while another may have too much inventory of unsold real estate on its books. Staid corporate cultures and high staff turnover contribute to slow decision-making.

Servicers don’t want to take on the legal and financial responsibilities of owning more homes. As soon as the foreclosure is completed, the lender “immediately assumes liability and carrying costs,” Sharga says. Examples of such costs include property taxes, casualty insurance, repairs and maintenance, and homeowner association dues.

Lenders are loath to write off losses on unpaid loans.

“Foreclosure typically isn’t making a profit, it’s minimizing a loss. It’s hard to get the (investors) who own the notes excited about spending more money to execute a foreclosure,” Sharga says. “Ironically, the longer these things take, the more it costs.”

Lenders securitized and sold many of their loans to investors, whose objectives may conflict. One investor may want to foreclose quickly and take the cash, Sharga says, while another might want to keep the loan and pressure the borrower to resume the payments. Disagreements lead to process paralysis.

Lenders may be especially unwilling to negotiate settlements with borrowers who own expensive homes and are believed to have fraudulently hidden other assets in offshore bank accounts, Olefson says.

“The banks are a lot less likely to settle because their feeling is that (the borrower) has assets somewhere or will have assets,” she says.

A rumor, whether true or not, that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. may take over a lender can cause disruptions and delays, Olefson says. Lenders, investors and borrowers alike tend to think they’ll get a better loan workout deal if the government agency steps in, but that’s a “complete misconception,” she says.

Years ago, foreclosures usually were uncontested, but today, homeowners are more likely to hire a foreclosure attorney to stall the outcome, Olefson says.

Bankruptcy and other court filings can delay a foreclosure, but such actions may be costly for the borrower. Default interest, force-placed insurance, property taxes and legal fees can all end up on the borrower’s account.

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Dealing With Bank REO’s | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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REO and short-sale transactions are expected to continue to make up a big part of the real estate landscape in 2011. Real estate coach and trainer Bernice Ross offers some of the following tips to avoiding common pitfalls when working with distressed properties.

1. Make sure you have the training. If you lack the experience in handling REOs, short sales, or foreclosures, you need to disclose that fact to your clients. You’re better off not taking on a transaction if you lack the proper training in navigating these complex deals. Instead, a smarter and safer business approach: Refer the business to another agent and take a referral fee, Ross says.

2. Determine if it’s a recourse or nonrecourse loan. You need to determine how many loans the owner of a distressed property has on the property and whether those loans are “recourse” or “nonrecourse” loans, Ross says. With a recourse loan, if a lender forecloses or grants a short sale, the lender can still seize other assets belonging to the defaulting home owner to cover the lender’s loss. With a nonrecourse loan, the lender’s only option is to foreclose on the property and they will not be able to seek such a deficiency judgment. It’s possible for an owner to have both recourse and nonrecourse loans on the same property.

Also, make sure your clients are fully informed about any tax ramifications prior to committing to any type of transaction, Ross notes, suggesting you have clients consult a tax professional before making any final decisions.

3. Have an attorney on call. Many lenders use language in their listings and sales contracts that note a “blanket indemnification of the lender.” That means if there’s a lawsuit you’ll have to defend yourself and the lender. Have an attorney review all lender listing agreements so that you can remove any blanket indemnification language, Ross says.

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$60 Million Florida Mansion for Sale In Key Biscayne

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A group of wealthy art collectors and philanthropists dined on risotto and listened to chamber music at a 10-bedroom estate on a private island off Florida’s Biscayne Bay last month. The mansion isn’t owned by a Russian oligarch or a certain NBA player who recently moved to town. It was built purely on speculation by developers in search of a buyer.

Its asking price: $60 million.

Despite the current housing slump, a small but growing group of developers and investors is building multimillion-dollar mega-mansions for wealthy potential buyers who’ve never seen them. Candace Jackson explains why.

Three years into the housing bust, at a time when home values are hitting new lows in many markets, a small group of developers has plunged into the risky business of betting millions on high-end speculative homes. They are erecting amenity-rich mansions for wealthy buyers that they hope will materialize. While the vast majority of the “spec” market remains moribund, some developers, pointing to a handful of big sales and the recent recovery of the stock market, believe the world’s wealthiest buyers are out again shopping for trophy mansions, often as second, third or fourth homes.

While there aren’t any national sales statistics for homes in this range, there are signs that purchases by the super-rich have begun to rebound. Though down from the peak three or four years ago, art auctions in New York and London in 2010 brought in total sales that far surpassed 2009, including an all-time auction record of $104.3 million for sale of a Giacometti sculpture in February, topped in May by a $106.5 million sale of a Picasso painting.

The current crop of newly built spec mansions on the market includes a five-bedroom, seven-bathroom ski home on 1.2 acres of land in Aspen, Colo.’s Red Mountain neighborhood. Built by a group of investors last year, it has hand-scraped wide-plank ash floors, an onyx-and-steel chandelier in the dining room and a garage that has a dock for charging hybrid or electric vehicles as well as a dog-washing facility. Price tag: $23.9 million. In New York’s Hamptons, an eight-bedroom farmhouse-style home in Sagaponack, built last year, is on the market for $26 million. In Los Angeles, a minimalist house with a 26-foot-long fire trough and a home theater with stadium seating is on the market for $13.7 million.

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Mortgage Rates Down This Week

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McLean, VA – Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®). The survey results showed lower mortgage rates for both long- and short-term rates.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.77 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 6, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.86 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.09 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.50 percent.

5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.75 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.77 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 3.24 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.31 percent.

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac, reports, “Mortgage rates began the new year a little lower this week and remained below those at the start of 2010, which should help aid the recovery in the housing market.”

“Low mortgage rates are an important factor in housing affordability, which in November was the highest since records began in 1971, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Not surprisingly, the Realtors® also reported that pending existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November to the strongest pace since April when the homebuyer tax credit expired. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases at the end of 2010 were roughly running at the same rate as the beginning of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.” Today’s Local Market Conditions Report