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Google’s Blueprint for Search Domination | Armonk Real Estate

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Do you really think Google would reveal its plans on how they want search to evolve? I sure do. If you don’t believe me just ask Matt Cutts. Or better yet just watch him answering the question below.

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After bypassing the cyborg comments he makes some pretty profound statements that Google should be a “good assistant,” “understand the context,” and “synthesize information.” But more importantly he goes on to say that Google should be able to handle difficult syntax not just by data or knowledge but towards analysis and wisdom. Now what does that mean?

Quick Algorithm Recap

In the famous words of Hitch “You can’t know where you’re going until you know where you’ve been,” so to get a better understanding of the future lets back up a few years and look at what Google has done with previous algorithm updates. I am only going to hit on the high points, but if you want to go further I would recommend referencing SEO Moz’s Algorithm History.

  • Florida Update – November 2003
  • Paid Links – October 2007
  • Rel Canonical – February 2009
  • Social Signals – December 2010
  • Panda – February 2011
  • Google Authorship – June 2011
  • Penguin – April 2012
  • Knowledge Graph – May 2012
  • EMD Update – September 2012

Many of the previous algorithm updates and iterations listed were aimed to dismantle spam, technical manipulation, and improving their infrastructure. It took over a decade of progress before Google was even able to begin to tackle the context issue.

Google Authorship and the Knowledge Graph implementation was the catalyst to bring data together in a sensible format. The Knowledge Graph pulls data from reliable sources to show images, descriptions, background information, people involved, and other related information while Google Authorship connects content with a specific author. The Knowledge Graph is even more sophisticated than it would appear at first glance. Bill Slawski at SEO by the Sea has uncovered that the information in knowledge graphs can be dynamic depending on what users are searching for, so not all knowledge graphs are created equal.

                                               

Back to the Present

So what does Matt Cutts mean when he says that search will be going toward analysis and wisdom? The simple answer is Google wants to answer every single question the user has on the very first try and if possible before the user even asks the question.

In an article in the Guardian, Google’s CEO Larry Page said that they are trying to reduce every possible friction between the user, their thoughts, and the information they want to find. He even mentions brain implants to answer questions at the time a thought originates. Maybe Larry and Matt are in cahoots to make us all cyborgs. But I digress…

In order for Google to get to the point where they can answer every possible question a couple of things have to occur. They need to have access to a lot of data and a way to relationally put it together. Part of the data gathering process has already been explained above with Google Authorship and the Knowledge Graph, but lets continue going down the rabbit trail on more sources they are using to get data.

First they have Google Analytics which is installed on millions of websites. Have you ever wondered why Google Analytics is free for up to 10 million pageviews a month? It is the amount of data that is now at their disposal. Google makes it very easy for you to share your data with them. When you’re setting up a Google Analytics account, they have conveniently pre-checked all the data sharing settings for you even though they are technically optional. This data allows them to understand user behavior for individual websites but more importantly for different verticals.

 

Google’s Blueprint for Search Domination | Find and Convert.

Bernanke Says Premature Tightening Would Endanger Recover | Chappaqua NY Homes

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said raising interest rates or reducing asset purchases too soon would endanger the recovery as the economy remains hampered by high unemployment and government spending cuts.

“A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further,” Bernanke said today in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington.

Bernanke lamented the human and economic costs of anunemployment rate at 7.5 percent nearly four years into the recovery from the deepest recession since the Great Depression, and he said the Fed’s record easing is providing “significant benefits.” His comments echoed remarks by William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who said in an interview that it would take three to four months before policy makers will know whether a sustainable recovery is in place.

Fed officials “need to see inflation expectations remain in a desired range, they need to see that the peak home-buying season goes as well as it can, and they need to see that we have absorbed the bulk of the huge fiscal consolidation” before they reduce the pace of purchases from $85 billion a month, said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC inJersey City, New Jersey.

Stocks erased an early rally and Treasuries fell after Bernanke said the Fed could “take a step down in our pace of purchases” in the “next few meetings.”

Brady Question

“We’re trying to make an assessment of whether or not we have seen real and sustainable progress in the labor market outlook,” Bernanke said in response to a question from Representative Kevin Brady, the Texas Republican who chairs the committee. “If we see continued improvement and we have confidence that that is going to be sustained, then we could in — in the next few meetings, we could take a step down in our pace of purchases.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent to 1,659.54 at 2:54 p.m. in New York. Yields on the U.S. 10-year note rose above 2 percent for the first time since March.

“The market reacts pretty wildly to any hint of exit,” said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “It’s a small exit and a lot of people are trying to get out of it — like a rock concert.”

“The Fed is not looking to very quickly get out of this,” said Hanson, a former Fed economist. “There’s obviously a few members who want to wrap this up sooner than later, but Bernanke doesn’t seem eager to pull back on QE very soon. He wants to see more evidence that the economy really is moving on a forward path.”

More Progress

Many Fed officials said more progress in the labor market is needed before deciding to slow the pace of asset purchases, according to minutes of their last meeting released after Bernanke’s testimony.

“Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress” since the bond-buying program began in September, according to the record of the April 30-May 1 gathering released today in Washington. “But many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate.”

 

Bernanke Says Premature Tightening Would Endanger Recover – Bloomberg.

Home sales close in on three-and-a-half year high | Armonk Real Estate

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Home resales rose in April to the highest level in nearly 3-1/2 years and prices surged, offering the economy a buffer from the stiff headwinds posed by belt-tightening by Washington.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales advanced 0.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.97 million units, the highest level since November 2009.

The data underscored the housing market’s improving fortunes as it starts to regain its lost glory. Resales were 9.7 percent higher than the same period last year.

“It’s quite supportive of the overall economy,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “It’s a cushion against some of the other concerns in the economy.”

Economic activity appears to have slowed somewhat early in the second quarter as the effects of higher taxes and deep government spending cuts started filtering through.

Manufacturing, in particular, has been showing strains, but housing has held up surprisingly well, with the gains in home values helping to boost consumer confidence and retail sales.

The ripples from housing’s recovery have also extended to the jobs market, where construction employment has been rising.

That should limit the degree to which the economy slows this quarter. It expanded at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the first three months of the year.

U.S. stocks were narrowly mixed in afternoon trading. Treasury debt prices were lower while the dollar was higher against a basket of currencies.

PRICES SOAR

Tight supplies in some parts of the country have constrained the pace of home sales, but sellers are starting to wade back into the market, attracted by rising prices.

In April, the median home sales price increased 11 percent from a year ago to $192,800, the highest level since August 2008. It was the fifth consecutive month of double-digit gains.

With prices rising, more sellers put their properties on the market. The inventory of homes on the market rose 11.9 percent from March to 2.16 million.

That represented a 5.2 months’ supply at April’s sales pace, up from 4.7 months in March. It remained, however, below the 6.0 months that is normally considered a good balance between supply and demand.

The market has been helped by monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve that has kept mortgage rates near record lows. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear he was not yet ready to retreat from the U.S. central bank’s monthly $85 billion asset purchase program.

Adding to signs that the housing recovery was becoming firmly established, distressed properties – which can weigh on prices because they typically sell at deep discounts – accounted for only 18 percent of sales last month.

That was the lowest since the Realtors group started monitoring them in October 2008. These properties, foreclosures and short sales, had made up 21 percent of sales in March.

In another bright sign, properties are selling faster. The median time on market for homes was 46 days in April, down from 62 days the prior month. That was the fewest days since the NAR started monitoring that number in May 2011. Before the market collapsed in 2006, it usually took about 90 days to sell a home.

 

Home sales close in on three-and-a-half year high | Reuters.

MYRTLE BEACH: Better real estate market means scattered tight inventories | Waccabuc Real Estate

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There was a time not that long ago when Grand Strand Realtors were pleading for a lower inventory of foreclosures so sales of traditional homes could pick up.

That’s happened, as remains clear in the April real estate activity report by SiteTech Systems.

But behind the numbers, another potential problem could be lurking: low inventory.

The new low inventory, though, involves the number of traditionally-marketed homes for sale and available lots to put them on. While it’s not a crisis and no one’s saying it’s going to get that way, a tightening of available properties to sell to eager buyers could raise prices which, at some point, could suppress demand.

“The inventory is being pressured in all segments on the south end,” said Lee Hewitt, broker in charge at Garden City Realty.

Hewitt said he believes buyers will accept some price increases, but he’s not sure how much is too much that will cause them to put their money back in the bank.

“It’s going to be interesting how it plays out in the next three, four, five months,” he said.

It’s not just the Murrells Inlet area that is seeing a shrinking inventory, said Todd Woodard, SiteTech’s owner.

Inventories are tight in the Carolina Forest and Forestbrook/Socastee areas as well.

The situation has gotten serious enough, though, that it has prompted one Realtor to send an email seeking potential sellers.

Read more here: http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2013/05/21/3498105/better-real-estate-market-means.html#storylink=cpy

 

 

MYRTLE BEACH: Better real estate market means scattered tight inventories | Real Estate | MyrtleBeachOnline.com.

Katonah NY Weekly Real Estate Report | RobReportBlog

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Katonah NY Weekly Real Estate Report

5/22/2013
Homes for sale60
Median Ask Price$997,000.00
Low Price$359,000.00
High Price$18,995,000.00
Average Size3587
Average Price/foot$424.00
Average DOM98
Average Ask Price$1,954,480.00

 

 

Katonah NY Weekly Real Estate Report | RobReportBlog.

Housing inventory shortage lifts prices | Katonah NY Real Estate

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The home value forecast from Pro Teck Valuation Services reveals the impact low housing inventory has on home prices, which it calls the sold-to-list price ratio. 

In the May update, the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco and Chicago metro areas are highlighted to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective as well as in current market conditions to best predict home price appreciation in markets. 

“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. 

The sold-to-list price ratio typically fluctuates between 92% and 98%, but can exceed 100% in very hot markets, according to the authors of the home value forecast. 

“The sold-to-listed price ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices,” added O’Grady. 

The May home value forecast update also provides a listing of the top-10 best and worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. Sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory, days on market, sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity are all indicators of the best and worst markets.

“Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros,” said Michael Sklarz, principal of collateral analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast.

Sklarz added, “Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now.”

“The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to thirteen Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month,” added Sklarz.

 

Housing inventory shortage lifts prices | HousingWire.

Top housing markets for the next five years | Bedford Hills Real Estate

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Business Insider drew on the latest data to identify the best housing markets for the next five years. The top 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q4 2012 and Q4 2017.

Business Insider also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak, to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market.

Click here to visit Business Insider’s list of top housing markets.

Top housing markets for the next five years | HousingWire.

Home values rise 5% for sixth consecutive month | Bedford Real Estate

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For the sixth straight month, home value appreciation was at or exceeded 5%, according to data from Zillow. More specifically, home values rose in April to $158,300. 

Home values jumped 5.2% over year ago levels, Zillow ($59.41 0%)reported, reaching their highest level since June 2004.

A majority of the 365 metros — 55% to be exact — experienced home value appreciation in April from March. Sacramento saw the largest monthly increase, with home values jumping 3.4%. Las Vegas and San Francisco also reported monthly increases of 3% and 2.8%, respectively. 

Looking forward, home values from April 2013 through April 2014 are predicted to rise 4% to approximately $164,648, according to Zillow. This is a drop from the 5.2% annual rate of appreciation reported between April 2012 and April 2013 and indicates a shift in supply and demand in some of the hardest-hit markets. 

“April marks the sixth straight month of annual home value appreciation of 5% or above, the longest such streak since the height of the bubble in 2006. In the short-term, this has been welcome news for homeowners. But in the long-term, this cannot be sustained, and consumers entering the market today should not expect this kind of appreciation to last,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. 

Humphries added, “Overall, we expect home value appreciation to moderate as more supply comes on line over the next year, but in some areas, runaway home value appreciation, combined with expected interest rate hikes in coming years, runs a real risk of pricing out many potential buyers. Home values in these areas will have to flatten or even fall to come back in line.”

Chicago was the only metro that did not experience year-over-year home value increases. More than half of the 30 largest metros covered saw double-digit percentage increases.­

 

 

Home values rise 5% for sixth consecutive month | HousingWire.

Mortgage apps tumble, refis drop to lowest since late March | Pound Ridge Real Estate

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Mortgage applications tumbled this week as refinancing and purchase applications continued their downward trend.

Application volume fell 9.8% from one week earlier for the week ending May 17, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Also posting significant drops, the refinance Index decreased 12% from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted purchase index dropped 3% from one week earlier, the industry trade group said.

“Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March last week, leading to the largest single week drop in refinance applications this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics.

He added, “The refinance index has fallen almost 19% over the past two weeks and is back to its lowest level since late March. Purchase activity declined over the week but is still running about 10% above last year’s pace at this time.”

The refinance share of overall mortgage activity slightly fell to 74% of total applications.

Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity inched up to 5% of all mortgage applications.

The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a conforming loan balance continued to escalate, rising to 3.78% from 3.67%.

Additionally, the average 30-year, FRM with a jumbo loan balance rose to 3.93% from 3.87% compared to a week prior.

The average contract interest rate for the 30-year, FRM backed by the FHA surged to 3.53% compared to 3.43% the previous week.

The 5/1 ARM squeaked up to 2.60% from 2.55%, and the 15-year, FRM jumped to 2.96% from 2.88.

 

Mortgage apps tumble, refis drop to lowest since late March | HousingWire.

Ratio of Sold to List Prices Shows Inventory Shortages Driving Price Hikes | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

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The Sold-to-List Price Ratio, one of the leading market indicators for predicting home prices, is helping analysts predict home prices in markets with varying economic condition, shortages of available housing inventory and its impact on home prices. Pro Teck Valuation Services’ May Home Value Forecast (HVF) Update analyzes the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco, and Chicago metro areas to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective and in current market conditions.

“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Aside from anecdotal stories, Home Value Forecast shows that one of the most reliable leading indicators to support this theory is the Sold-To- List Price ratio.”

In May’s Home Value Forecast Update, the authors examine how the ratio of the sold price to the listing price (Sold-to-List Price Ratio) typically fluctuates between 92 percent and 98 percent, but in very hot markets can exceed 100 percent. The update takes a historical look (1978 to 2011) at the Honolulu metro Sold-to-List Price Ratio and the annual percent change in the median condominium sold price.

“The Sold-to-Listed Price Ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices,” added O’Grady.

In addition, the authors highlight quarterly value back to 1994 for the Tucson, AZ single family market and determine that the Sold-to-List Price Ratio exceeded 100 percent during the bubble period in 2006, which was indicative of a very frenzied market. The authors also demonstrate that the indicator moves directly with the market itself and can be a useful tool for determining if a market is “hot” as in San Francisco or in “normal” conditions as in Chicago, where the market could transition to heated conditions in the coming year.

This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.

“Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros,” said Michael Sklarz, Principal of Collateral Analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast. “Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now.”

May’s top CBSAs include:

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN

Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA

Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA

Reno-Sparks, NV

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI

Salt Lake City, UT

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

“The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to thirteen Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month,” added Sklarz.

The bottom CBSAs for May were:

El Paso, TX

Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

Akron, OH

Spokane, WA

Chattanooga, TN-GA

Dayton, OH

Peoria, IL

Baltimore-Towson, MD

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Rochester, NY

Clarksville, TN-KY

About HomeValueForecast.com

 

 

Ratio of Sold to List Prices Shows Inventory Shortages Driving Price Hikes | RealEstateEconomyWatch.com.