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Gasoline Prices Down 21% for the Year | Bedford Real Estate

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The consumer price index fell for the second consecutive month due to a large decrease in the price of gasoline. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis the consumer price index fell 0.4%. Over the past twelve months, prices on expenditures made by urban consumers increased just 0.8% before seasonal adjustments. The falling price of gasoline is positive for consumers in the short-term as this frees up income to spend on other goods and services.

Falling gasoline prices also pushed down the energy price index which fell for the sixth consecutive month. The gasoline index, a component of the energy price index, fell on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis 9.4% and over the past twelve months is down 21%. However, not all components of the energy index fell. The electricity index increased 0.8% for the month and the natural gas index increased 1.5% for the month.

The price of food increased for the month and has shown steady growth over the year. The food index increased 0.3% for the month and over the past twelve months increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustments. After declining in November, the index for dairy saw an increase of 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 0.3% for the month.

Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged for the month. Over the past twelve months core CPI increased 1.6% before seasonal adjustments.

Chart_1

The shelter index rose 0.2% month-over-month in December after increasing 0.3% month-over-month in November. Over the past twelve months, the shelter index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustments.

Because shelter costs represent a large share of the average consumer’s expenditures, a 0.2% month-over-month increase is worth exploring further. Although the increase in the shelter index partly reflects increases in rental prices, the BLS measure does not isolate the change in rental prices from the changes in the overall price index. NAHB constructs a real rent price index to isolate the change in rental prices. The NAHB constructed measure indicates whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than general inflation and provides some insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing, after controlling for overall inflation.

The NAHB constructed real rent index increased 0.2% in December month-over-month. Over the past year, growth in real rental prices outpaced growth in the CPI. Real rental prices rose by 1.7% from December 2013.

Chart_2

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/01/gasoline-prices-down-21-for-the-year/

1896 Victorian Home Gets a Contemporary Lift | Bedford Real Estate

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“With two children and the two of us working from home, our house is always buzzing with energy,” says interior designer Kristen Peña. “People are coming and going, and we love that. We love nothing more than having a bunch of kids laughing and playing around us while we work or relax.“ That is why it was important for Kristen and her husband, Luis, a director, to find a home in which they could raise a family and carve out a studio space dedicated to their work. After waiting patiently for five years, they found their dream house in their dream city — a 118-year-old Victorian in San Francisco’s Noe Valley neighborhood.

The house needed a heavy renovation, including adding a new foundation and removing an inefficient sunroom that wrapped around the back of the house. Construction began in 2006, when Kristen was pregnant with the couple’s second child. The couple worked with CCS Architecture to convert the two-bedroom, one-bathroom, single-story residence — with the master bed and bath off the kitchen — into a three-level home with four bedrooms and four bathrooms. They kept the home’s original character but added modern elements.

Eclectic Living Room by Le Michelle Nguyen
Le Michelle Nguyen
Houzz at a Glance
Who lives here: Kristen and Luis Peña, daughters Sadie and Emmi, and cat Penny
Location: Noe Valley neighborhood of San Francisco
Size: 3,800 square feet (353 square meters); 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms
Year built: 1896

They also wanted to keep a clear distinction between their living space and their workspace, which they achieved by creating a separate entrance for their offices on the ground level. On the upper levels, they focused on warming up their living spaces with art and vintage furnishings collected from their trips abroad, as they did in the living room shown here.

“My mother is a lovely homemaker. I know I got my sense of balance and visual strengths from her,” says Kristen, of K Interiors. “I think my mind was blown when I started traveling the world in college, and still to this day my interior style is very much influenced by my travels.”

Eclectic by Le Michelle Nguyen
Le Michelle Nguyen
Throughout the home, Kristen displays small vignettes featuring pieces the family has collected during travels abroad.

Decorating their home was Kristen’s first formal foray into interior design, which she now does professionally. She had been running her own clothing company but found she loved working with the architects on the design of the home as well as finding materials and products. The home she and Luis created reflects her design approach.

“In design I aim to create very open, contemporary, light-filled spaces,” she says. “I then soften the lines with layers of textures, treasures and art to create a cozy, warm, inviting space — a home!”

Eclectic Living Room by Le Michelle Nguyen
Le Michelle Nguyen
The front room is filled with light throughout most of the day, thanks to its large windows, making it an ideal spot for older daughter Sadie to work on homework in. The furnishings are a perfect example of Kristen’s design sense. She says, “I love to find vintage pieces and often rework them.” The armchair is vintage with new cushions made with fabric fromMark Alexander, while the rug is from Madeline Weinrib.
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http://www.houzz.com/ideabooks/34959260?utm_source=Houzz&utm_campaign=u896&utm_medium=email&utm_content=gallery4

A Big Mortgage Change Happened This Weekend: Should You Care? | Bedford Real Estate

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Saving up to buy a home might not be as much of a challenge as it used to be, now that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will allow some first-time homebuyers to make down payments of as little as 3%.

The change went into effect Saturday with the goal of making homeownership more accessible to Americans than it has been in a tight post-recession mortgage market. These low-down-payment loansapply to 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (The FHFA regulates Fannie and Freddie, which guarantee the majority of U.S. mortgages.)

What does this mean for you? Well, if you want to buy a home but don’t have a ton of cash on hand for a down payment and closing costs, you might be able to qualify for an affordable home loan. Keep in mind lenders will require you to pay private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you pay less than 20% upfront, a cost homebuyers often overlook when determining how much they can pay — you can figure out how much house you can afford using this free calculator and watch how your monthly payments change with different down payments.

Even with a low-down-payment mortgage, you can find ways to make the monthly payments more affordable. One of the first things you’ll want to look at before applying for a home loan is your credit score. Your credit standing not only affects the mortgage rate you qualify for, it also impacts how much you must pay in PMI. You can also get rid of PMI after you’ve built a certain amount of equity in your home, among other requirements, but it’s on you to go through the process of removing PMI from your loan.

With the new directive from the FHFA, buying your first home may be more attainable, but the decision requires just as much careful thought as it would if you needed to put down 20% of the home’s value to get a mortgage. Consider the overall impact on your life of buying a home, and make sure your credit is in good shape before applying for a mortgage. You’re entitled to free annual credit reports from each of the major credit reporting agencies, and you can get two of your credit scores for free every 30 days on Credit.com.

 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-mortgage-change-happened-weekend-120039626.html

Big money pushes Jackson’s real estate market | Bedford Real Estate

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People with a lot of money have continued to push the Jackson Hole real estate market in 2014 and in the third quarter, no matter what happened in any other segment of the market.

The people at the NeVille Group — associated with Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates and Christie’s International Real Estate — shared their recent stats and noted that the Hole “is synonymous with luxury and is an international marketplace for luxury real estate.”

There were 26 sales above $3 million during the third quarter, according to NeVille Group’s figures, and the average price in the sector was actually well beyond that, hitting an average of $5.7 million.

The number of transactions was up 18 percent over the same period last year, and the total dollar value of the sales was about $160 million, up 11 percent over the same period in 2013.

Other people recorded some of the same trends.

David Viehman of Re/Max Obsidan Real Estate wrote in the third-quarter update of his Jackson Hole Report that the upper end is strong, but not without its problems.

On the strength side, during the first nine months of the year, Viehman wrote, 73 deals were done in the $2 million-plus market, and 11 of those were for more than $5 million — impressive, but down by his calculations by 21 percent from the corresponding nine months in 2013.

He noted that while $2 million-plus sales were only 14 percent of all transactions they accounted for 52 percent of total dollar volume.

The third quarter showed, though, a bit more weakness in lower-priced segments — and perhaps the end of the bounce-back caused by short money and big inventory following the 2008 crash.

Viehman put the number of listings down 15 percent in the quarter, and the dollar volume down by 10 percent. That’s after years of fat inventory and, subsequently, a boom in sales when things began to look up.

Add to that decline in listings a fall in total transactions of 11 percent and a drop of 9 percent in the number of properties under contract and you have the explanation for something happening at the same time: Prices continue to rebound.

Average sale prices were up 7 percent, Viehman wrote, and median prices were up 13 percent.

With inventory surpluses of two years ago largely depleted, that’s caused a rise of 39 percent in the median sales price of property under contract.

As David NeVille and his people note, the median sale price of single-family homes in Jackson Hole hit $1.1 million in the past few months, up $300,000 from a year before. At the same time, sales in the under-$500,000 home market, hot a year ago, were down 73 percent since mid-year.

Compared to last year, NeVille said, sales in the $500,000-and-under sector fell from 33 last year to just nine this year. All of which seems to indicate that after the Great Recession and then the recovery of the past two or three years the market is finally looking to settle into a new level.

 

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http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/jackson_hole_daily/big-money-pushes-jackson-s-real-estate-market/article_be72ecef-a955-5f58-8393-700516608151.html?mode=print

NYC Real Estate news | Bedford NY Real Estate

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Brown Harris Stevens’ Twitter handle reads, simply, “@Established1873.” The brokerage trades upon its distinguished lineage and generally manages to keep its white-gloved hands out of industry drama. But when real estate startup Urban Compass poached elite broker Kyle Blackmon last week, BHS president Hall Willkie decided it was time for those gloves to come off.

“Kyle has made the decision that the equity proposition offered to him trumps a singular focus on brokerage,” Willkie said in a statement to The Real Deal. He questioned the wisdom of that decision in an internal BHS memo that stated: “The value of Kyle’s or anyone’s equity will be dependent on the success of Urban Compass’ founders implementing their vision of selling their company for substantially more than many industry experts believe is possible.”

Willkie’s statement echoed what many in the industry have whispered – or shouted under the cloak of anonymity – for months. Urban Compass, these sources say, is merely an idea – albeit a well-choreographed, Ivy League and McKinsey-branded one. But even with a $360 million valuation, they ask, is it really the future?

Tech leg up? 

A screenshot of the Urban Compass app

Urban Compass has always stressed that its competitive advantage is superior technology, both for the consumer and the broker. “Just the way Apple made buying and listening to music significantly different, I think this company can have the same effect on real estate,” Urban Compass president and top-ranked broker Leonard Steinberg told TRD in June. But it’s still unclear to many in the industry, including former employees, what exactly that advantage is.

“Urban Compass likes to think that from Day One their technology was really differentiated,” said a former broker who left the company earlier this month. “The reality is their technology looked better but was actually behind and they were piecing it together from scratch.”

“It wasn’t a game-changer by any means,” the agent added.

Robert Reffkin, CEO of Urban Compass, acknowledged the difficulty he’s faced in creating believers out of those who haven’t seen the technology first-hand. “It’s hard,” he said during an interview Tuesday night at the startup’s Union Square headquarters. “How would you explain why the iPhone is better than the Samsung? Your users have to feel it and see it.”

While the existence of the technology in of itself isn’t novel, the intuitiveness of its design is — something that even the firm’s skeptics acknowledge. An agent using the mobile app who wants to send feedback to the firm’s engineers, for example, simply has to shake her mobile phone and a portal will pop up. Also via the app, clients who receive a listing from an agent can click to see a street view of the property, courtesy of Urban Compass’ own mapping technology that is similar to Google Street View.

Saving time is at the crux of Reffkin’s agenda. The average New York City agent spends 89 percent of their time performing administrative tasks, he said, citing the firm’s data. He wants his agents to have more time to spend with clients.

Sources said Urban Compass agents purchased up to 15 licenses to Real Plus’ electronic listing exchange. As recently as August, brokers were using popular listing databases like StreetEasy, On-Line Residential and Realty MX in lieu of the company’s own search engine.

Adam Fleming, who was Urban Compass’ head of engineering until he moved to real estate startup Honest Buildings in June, said that Urban Compass’ thesis “is empowering customers and agents to find each other in the right way and right time.”

Fleming, who declined to say why he left Urban Compass, said that the firm had a “pretty nice algorithm” that matches customers with appropriate agents. “Agents receive tremendous support inside Urban Compass,” he said, “that they don’t get anywhere else.”

Cherry picking

From left: Julia Hoagland, Timothy Rothman and Howard Spiegelman

Blackmon is the latest in a long line of big names to join the firm since ex-Elliman stalwart Steinberg came over in June. These include Julia Hoagland from BHS, Timothy Rothman and Howard Spiegelman from the Corcoran Group, Eugene Litvak from Citi Habitats, Roy Kim from Extell Development and Jay Glazer from Warburg Realty.

Without a concrete advantage early on, Urban Compass offered equity to lure top producers to its ranks. “The only differentiating factor they could offer was equity,” said a former broker. And as the startup continued its phenomenal fundraising run, the appeal of that equity stake kept rising.

Reffkin confirmed to TRD that the firm has offered equity to top brokers.

“Every advisory business I know gives equity to the people that help build it,” he said. “A real estate brokerage should do the same. Some of these agents have built their companies with the brand they [help to] create.”

The head of a rival brokerage cited the equity as Urban Compass’ main draw. “Aside from the ones they [Urban Compass] bought – Julia Hoagland, Kyle Blackmon, Leonard Steinberg – they haven’t attracted any top brokers,” the brokerage head said.

Another former agent who was among Urban Compass’ first hires said that when she left the firm after 18 months, she walked away from an equity stake. “I didn’t believe it was worth anything at the end of the day,” she said. “The idea was that they were going to be different from other brokerages and that was always the plan. Then every time we executed one of the ideas that they had, they realized this doesn’t work.” In May, for example, the startup shifted from a neighborhood specialist-driven model to one more in line with a traditional brokerage’s, and pivoted from rentals to sales, which also put the firm on a mission to recruit top agents.

– See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2014/11/25/is-urban-compass-really-the-future/#sthash.gxcZ3jT8.dpuf

 

 

Flippers Flop Back Five Years | Bedford Real Estate

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Flipping has flopped to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2009, accounting for only 4 percent of all sales in the third quarter.

Only 26,947 single family homes were flipped nationwide in the third quarter of 2014 representing 4 percent of all U.S. single family home sales, down from 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014 and down from 5.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013.  Flipping, defined as purchasing a home is purchased and subsequently selling it again within 12 months –has reached its lowest level in four years.

However, investors’ profit margins soared this year.  Investors averaged a gross profit of $75,990 per flip on homes flipped in the third quarter of 2014, a 36 percent gross return on the initial investment — not including rehab costs and other expenses. The average gross return was up from 35 percent in the second quarter but down from 37 percent a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

“Flipping returned to its historic norm of 4 percent in the third quarter as home price appreciation cooled in many of the hot flipping markets across the country,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Meanwhile, the record-high average profits per flip in the quarter demonstrate that flippers are still filling an important niche in an aging housing market with historically low levels of new homes being built. The most successful flippers are buying older, outdated homes in established neighborhoods and rehabbing them extensively to appeal to modern tastes.

“The markets with an increase in flipping tend to be those with older, distressed, inventory still available that flippers can often buy at a discount and add value to,” Blomquist continued. “Those discounted distressed properties have become harder to find, but a recent jump in scheduled foreclosure auctions could provide more fodder for flippers in the next three to six months.”

Other high-level findings in the report:

Metro areas with the most flips in the third quarter were Miami (1,190 flips), Los Angeles (1,170 flips), Phoenix (1,147 flips), New York (1,070 flips) and Tampa (789 flips). Among these top five, Tampa was the only to post an increase in the share of home flips compared to a year ago.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/11/flippers-flop-back-five-years/

 

 

Liberal Politics Raise Housing Prices | Bedford Real Estate

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A post at Trulia called “Blue Markets Face Bigger Housing Challenges Than Red Markets” has been generating interest in media outlets typically read by blue voters, like The Atlantic and the Washington Post. The Post even considers itself “startled” by the connection between cities with liberal politics and higher housing prices:

Between these two poles, though (metro San Francisco voted for Obama by 58 points, metro Knoxville for Romney by 34 points), the relationship between housing affordability and politics across the country is startlingly strong.

But for those of us following the ongoing struggle to deal with rising housing costs in the city, this isn’t startling at all; in fact it makes perfect sense. As Megan McArdle points out in her take on the Trulia data, density (more people living in a smaller area) tends to bother people who already live in a city. Those that got there first are tempted to close the door behind them.

Density also multiplies the frictions over things such as noise, pets, public amenities and so forth that people have to put up with. Which increases the pressure for a resolution via the law…Consider, too, that the liberal base is composed of a large number of small interest groups with a long and successful history of lobbying government for laws. Those groups have paid a lot of attention to enabling this sort of action, making sure that their local political institutions have lots of avenues by which small groups can affect the legislative process. Everything has extensive community review, and it’s easy for local groups to file lawsuits that block some undesirable project.
Strategy and tactics in liberal politics was born out of organizing the mass movement, getting bodies into rooms where decisions are being made and using the pressure of large numbers of people, and when necessary, law suits to win. What happens in cities where there are lots of liberals is that when it comes time to grow the population, and things change and maybe get uncomfortable, the resolution is to organize for restrictions on the development and construction of new housing, policies that raise rents. And oddly, this means using the tactics pioneered by Saul Alinsky not to push for more building and more housing choice for renters and new people, but less by erecting more rules, taxes, and fees. Red and Blue Chart What’s ironic is that the more liberal cities agitate about the cost of housing, the more rules, fees, and taxes they propose. I’ve called this dynamic the “San Francisco Death Spiral,” a pattern of pressure by existing residents to make more rules on new housing because new housing is too expensive which results in higher prices and thus more agitation. The claims about gentrification and income inequality that seem to beleaguer bigger, liberal cities also are used to support the arguments for more limits on market rate housing and taxes on it to “solve” the housing problem. What’s encouraging about the Trulia data and graphics is that perhaps it will cause some soul searching among elected officials in liberal cities. Maybe those leaders might at least consider the idea that raising costs and limiting supply really do contribute negatively to housing prices. What’s needed in liberal cities is an economic and ideological reset: you can support taxes and regulation and government spending to solve social problems and also support the idea that sometimes reducing some or all of those things can solve social problems too. As liberal cities grow because they are progressive, open, and support diverse lifestyles, maybe their housing policies can be open and progressive too.

 

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogervaldez/2014/11/03/liberal-progressive-politics-raise-housing-prices/

Home Price Growth to Cool to 3 Percent in 2015 | Bedford NY Real Estate

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Usually when an asset starts to grow in value less quickly than it had before, it’s a bad sign. When it comes to the U.S housing market, however, analysts say it means healthy stabilization.

Home prices in the U.S. continued to decelerate in the third quarter this year, growing 6.5 percent from the same period in 2013, according to a report released Thursday from Zillow. The average home price was $176,500.

The annual rate of appreciation peaked at 8.1 percent in April and has fallen every month since then, quelling fears of a bubble in certain markets. Prices will continue to cool as certain market fundamentals, like job and wage gains, replace factors like decreased home supply and widespread investor activity that have driven price gains since the housing crisis.

“We’re transitioning from a fast form of recovery to a slow form of recovery, particularly since a lot of those factors driving us forward – household formation rates and income growth – have not fully recovered,” says Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist.

Typically in the U.S., property prices rise 3.5 percent per year, Humphries says, and since about the middle of 2013, they’ve gone up 6 to 8 percent a year.

“Because 65 percent of us own homes, we tend to value it when homes appreciate quickly, but that’s really bad for people who are not in the market … buyers. For them, really high price appreciation makes homes less affordable,” Humphries says.

The rate of home price appreciation decreased most in markets that had been considered the hottest during the housing recovery. For example, in San Francisco, home value growth slowed from 23.5 percent annually in the third quarter of 2013 to 8.2 percent over the past year. Zillow anticipates they’ll grow at 2.9 percent in 2015.

Changing market dynamics put more power in the hands of buyers than sellers, Humphries says. At the end of September, there were almost 19 percent more homes on the market than last year. Nearly 37 percent of listed homes on Zillow had at least one price cut in the past month, up from 33.6 percent in September 2013.

“Sellers have had their day in the sun for several years in a row now. It’s time to get back to a balanced market and for buyers to have their day,” Humphries says.

Brian Walters, a Redfin real estate agent who works in Alexandria, Virginia, has seen changing dynamics among his clients, too.
“It seems like buyers have definitely picked up on what’s going on in the marketplace a little bit faster than sellers,” Walters says. “They’re willing to go in and offer significantly lower than what would be expected to be successful offers that seem to pan out. They’re being a lot more aggressive during the home inspection period and asking for things to be repaired.”

 

 

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http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/10/23/zillow-home-price-growth-to-cool-to-3-percent-in-2015

Housing market stuck in downward spiral | Bedford NY Real Estate

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Home price growth continues to slow, according to today’s S&P/Case-Shiller index.

According to the index, home growth rates grew 6.2% nationwide for the 12-month period ending in June, much lower than the double-digit gains seen last year. The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 major cities through the U.S. increased 8.1% over the same period, down from a 9.4% in May and below economists’ expectations of 8.4%.

Home prices appear to be moderating but that’s good news says Shari Olefson, CEO of The Carnegie Group. “Those big increases that we saw last year were not sustainable and in general we’re still seeing an upward trend when you look at the big picture,” she says.

Still, it’s not all roses for Olefson. “What I wasn’t happy with are some of the trends we’re seeing in new construction,” she notes.

New homes sales fell by 2.4% from June to July, yet July’s new homes sales were up 12.3% from the previous year. “New construction appears to be up significantly from last year but when you dig beneath the surface what’s up are multifamily homes,” says Olefson. “Single family homes are up by just 1% which defies logic because we’ve had over 3 million single family units that have been converted to residential rentals.”

Some believe that these numbers mean that housing is approaching normal levels, but Olefson disagrees. She sees more potential buyers turning into renters and believes there’s a lack of suitable housing and loan products for what people can afford now.

 

 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-is-stuck-in-downard-spiral–shari-olefson-155251001.html

Fixed Mortgage Rates Edge Lower | Bedford NY Real Estate

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Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates following bond yields lower. Averaging 4.12 percent for the week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage once again is at its 2014 low.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.12 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending August 14, 2014, down from last week when it averaged 4.14 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.24 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.27 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.44 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.97 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.98 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.23 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.36 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.35 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.67 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates were down slightly amid a week of light economic reports. Of the few releases, retail sales were virtually unchanged in July after a 0.2 percent increase in June, ending five months of increases. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales were up 0.1 percent last month.”