In his 2013 forecast, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Frank Nothaft, sees more than a million new households bolstering housing starts, driving apartment vacancy rates down to ten year lows and outpacing the boom in new apartment construction.
“The last few months have brought a spate of favorable news on the U.S. housing market with construction up, more home sales, and home-value growth turning positive. This has been a big change from a year ago, when some analysts worried that the looming ’shadow inventory’ would keep the housing sector mired in an economic depression. Instead, the housing market is healing, is contributing positively to GDP and is returning to its traditional role of supporting the economic recovery,” Nothaft says.
Here’s how Nothaft sees the coming year:
- Next year some regions will post faster house price gains, while some will be stagnant or see value loss fof the year, but overall, the housing recovery continue to strengthen property values and most U.S. house price indexes will likely rise by 2 to 3 percent, according to 2012 forecast from Freddie Mac’s chief economist,
- Look for fixed-rate mortgage rates to remain near their 65-year record lows for the first half of 2013 then begin rising a bit in the tail end of next year, but staying below 4 percent. In the single-family market, this means homebuyer affordability should remain very high in 2013 for those with good credit history, stable income, and sufficient savings.
- Household formation will be up. Unemployment, while still high, will likely drift down toward 7.5 percent; the resulting job and income gains will facilitate household formations – meaning that more members of the boomerang generation who have been living in their parents’ basements should start to move out. Look for net growth of 1.20 to 1.25 million households in 2013. These gains will help drive more housing construction and reduce vacancy rates further. Housing starts should be up around the 1.0 million pace (seasonally adjusted annual rate) by the fourth quarter of 2013.
- Vacancy rates have been trending lower for much of the past three years because household formations have outpaced new construction. To illustrate, in 2012, net household formations through the third quarter totaled 1.15 million but completions of newly built homes (both rental and for sale) were just under 700,000; the difference is made up by a reduction in vacancies. This trend will continue in 2013 and could bring total vacancy rates down to levels last seen a decade ago. While this is good news for property owners, tenants will likely see rents rise a bit faster than prices on all other goods.
- Refinance activity accounted for the bulk of residential lending in 2012 and will account for the bulk of it in 2013, too. But, simply put, we’ve seen the peak in refinancing. Homeowners who obtained a loan with a low mortgage rate in 2012 or refinanced through the Home Affordable Refinance Program are unlikely to refinance in 2013. Next year’s likely pickup in home sales won’t be enough to offset the coming drop in refinance activity. Consequently, total single-family originations will probably drop by about 15 percent in 2013. On the other hand, permanent financing on newly built apartment buildings, a pickup in property transactions, and refinancing of loans exiting “yield maintenance” terms are expected to increase multifamily lending by about 5 percent.
Tag Archives: Bedford Corners NY Homes
Luxury Prices Fall Despite Tight Inventories | Bedford Corners Real Estate
Though inventory shortages began at the lower price tiers, tight inventories have worked their way up to the luxury levels in the past two quarters. Expensive homes are selling faster than they were a year ago but third quarter prices are down in many markets compared to a year ago.
The median luxury property is taking nearly 200 days to sell this week, far above the 5.4-month supply for all price ranges. However, this is the time of year when inventories traditionally increase, especially in the upper price tiers. Last year in December, the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing reported that homes in its market profile were spending an average of 231 days on market and luxury properties in all markets it tracks were averaging 215 days on market at the end of the year, a year-long high.
During the spring buying season, luxury homes were selling much faster. Days on market for luxury homes fell to 120 days, down from 155 days at the outset of the buying season in February.
Luxury agents and brokers around the country report brisk activity up to the onset of the holiday season, an indication that demand is strong. Tighter inventories are not translating into higher prices at the million dollar plus end of the spectrum, however.
In the Hamptons, Town and Country Realty reports the greatest gain in third quarter activity was in the $3.5 million to $4.99 million price range and the only price range to see a statistical decline was the $5 million to $9.9 million range. Total number of sales in the Hamptons was up 17 percent.
Luxury home sales in the Denver metro area almost doubled in October compared to October 2011, according to John Rebchook of Inside Real Estate News, citing a report by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. However, the median sale price $1.31 million of a luxury home closed last month in the Denver market was off 4.8 percent from October 2011 and 3.9 percent from September. Homes also sold at a much faster pace year over year and sellers on average received a higher percentage of their asking price.
In Lake Tahoe, homes under and over the million-dollar mark both experienced significant increases in sales (37 and 33 percent, respectively) while overall prices fell around the lake. The median price of a home in Lake Tahoe is $330,000 (down 11 percent) and the average price is $538,289 (down 15 percent), according to Chase international.
Overall there was a 49 percent quarter-over-quarter and 39 percent year-over-year improvement in Lake Tahoe-area home sales, according to Better Homes and Gardens Mason-McDuffie Real Estate. In the third quarter, 122 homes changed hands, up from 82 homes sold in the second quarter and 88 homes sold in last year’s third quarter. In another sign the market is recovering, the average number of days a home was on the market before attracting a contract to purchase declined from 162 days a year ago to 101 days in this year’s third quarter.
In the greater Truckee area, the median price of a single-family detached home declined slightly from $451,129 in the second quarter to $450,083 in the third quarter, although it was up 3 percent from $437,261 in the third quarter of last year as the local real estate market continued to show signs of a recovery. Locally, a change in the mix of homes sold boosted the median sales price in Donner Lake by 50 percent year over year while low inventory pushed sales prices slightly higher in the Town of Truckee (+12% for the quarter and +7% for the year) and the Glenshire Area (+4 percent for the quarter and +3% compared with a year ago).
In Atlanta, while most of the real estate market is enjoying a nice rebound this year, luxury real estate is going backward. Sales of $2 million-plus single family detached resale homes are down 33 percent from 2011 (33 sales in 2012 vs. 49 during first 10 months of 2011) while sales of $3 million plus homes are down 67 percent (5 sales in 2012 vs. 15 in 2011). The average sales price for $2 million-plus homes is down 11 percent from 2011, while the average for $3 million-plus is up 1 percent. There are 112 single family detached new and resale homes in Buckhead currently on the market that are priced more than $2 million, which translates at the current rate of sale to a nearly four-year supply, according to Beacham and Company Realtors.
New York City is suffering from an acute lack of inventory throughout the sales marketplace, according to Warburg Realty. Foreign money is snapping up the high and mid-priced condominiums all over Manhattan. But the profound shortage of inventory which has developed in the co-op market defies expectations. Throughout the city, resident New Yorkers are hamstrung month after month in their new home searches. At $20 million, at $10 million, at $5 million, at $1 million – few new listings appear. The customers, hoping that there is still seasonality in the market ask, “Won’t there be a lot more inventory hitting the market in September?” Sadly, the answer was no. Many of these customers asked the same questions in April. There was no major spike in inventory in the spring and not much more in the fall. And we don’t anticipate one any time soon, at least not on the resale side, not even with the almost certain increase in the capital gains tax burden for sellers looming on the 2013 horizon.
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Unify your brand’s presence in the digital realm | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate
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“What the average homebuyer can do now in the palm of his or her hand was unthinkable just a few years ago,” said Brian Boero, partner and co-founder of real estate marketing, design and consulting firm 1000watt. “It’s an exciting new world.”
As a keynote speaker at Real Estate Connect New York City, Boero will speak about how the widespread adoption of Internet-enabled mobile devices and the integration of digital technology into seemingly every aspect of our lives should inform the strategic decisions of real estate companies. Real Estate Connect runs Jan. 16-18 at the Grand Hyatt New York.
Boero has had the opportunity to examine the business practices of many real estate companies firsthand. The biggest mistake made by many is not putting enough emphasis on unifying their brand’s presence in the digital realm, where many consumers now encounter it in intimate, new and compelling ways.
Brian BoeroFocusing on the digital side of business is not about being pretty, Boero said, but about doing things that have a measurable impact on the bottom line. First of all, it’s important for businesses to ask themselves, “What kind of experience do we want to create for our consumers?”
They should integrate their answer across all points — especially the digital ones — where the company touches consumers, Boero said.
And, he stressed, it’s important for companies to make sure their websites are solid before focusing on other arenas, like app development. For example, websites should include responsive design, where Web pages automatically resize to best fit the size of the browser screen or device that’s accessing it.
Boero, who has a master’s degree in political science, got into real estate by happenstance. In the mid-90s, he was working in the California Legislature at the state capitol in Sacramento when he met a Los Angeles Times reporter by the name of Bradley Inman.
In 1997, Boero recalls, Inman convinced him to come to the San Francisco Bay Area to help him run Inman News. Within a couple of years Boero was president of the organization. In 2004, he left Inman News to run real estate software company VREO Inc. as CEO, before co-founding 1000watt in 2007.
At 1000watt, Boero is focused on providing guidance to real estate companies like Realtor.com operator Move Inc., Lisle, Ill.-based multiple listing service Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc. (MRIS), and neighborhood information provider StreetAdvisor.
Brian Boero’s weekly “Friday Flash” blog at 1000watt, published most Fridays, provides a quick-hit, smart take on the notable real estate events that occur during the week. “The foreclosure play, Jay-Z and RIN Redux,” “RPR ecstasy, beautiful servers, and a second look at Facebook ads,” and “Emotional titillation, Realogy’s Roadshow, and a trivial pursuit” are a few recent titles showcasing Boero’s knowledge.
Boero, 1000watt co-founder Marc Davison, and 1000watt partner Joel Burslem have published a book of their selected writings from the firm’s first four years.
Mobile is clearly today, Boero said. And he has a hunch that tomorrow’s technology will have something to do with what he calls “people doing insane (things) on the Web,” like renting out a stranger’s apartment (AirBnB), having a stranger pick up your laundry (TaskRabbit), or hitching rides from people you don’t know (Lyft).
As the traditional barriers between people erode, transactional relationships increase, driven by the fact that smartphones and tablets, so widespread now, facilitate payments, location, directions and loads of other actions that make conducting business on the fly much easier.
This trend could increase the number of real estate transactions between strangers, he said. While the percentage of for-sale-by-owner home sales haven’t increased in recent years, Boero thinks it’s something to keep an eye on.
Outside of real estate, on most fall weekends Boero has his eyes on ducks he’s hunting from San Pablo Bay near San Francisco. But time away doesn’t preclude getting work done.
“I’ve been known to take conference calls from the duck pond,” he said.
3 attitude adjustments everyone should make now | Bedford Corners Realtor
Book Review
Title: “Get Your Shift Together: How to Think, Laugh, and Enjoy Your Way to Success in Business and in Life”
Author: Steve Rizzo
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Professional, 2012; 224 pages; $25A friend of mine has two remarkable little girls, ages 5 and 8, and they have very different personalities. The youngest is spritely, whimsical and exuberant. The oldest is brilliant, methodical and mightily capable. She taught me how to tie a square knot. She’s wont to say things like, “Tara, I can row from this side of the bay to that one, in a boat the size of a bathtub. By myself.” And she can.
But she’s young and well-parented, so she has not let her pragmatism dim the high priority she places on fun — not in the least. In fact, she’s somehow managed to find a perfect marriage between the two. After she pulled me out of some brooding moment with a silly story about a caper she pulled off with her schoolmates, she took the occasion of my laughter to say: “You know, every time you laugh, it adds two months to your life.”
I don’t know whether that’s true. Research uncovered in my Google search says that it does boost your immune system and your chances of survival, should serious disease strike — it also suggests that laughter adds life to the years we do have.
Article continues belowBut in any event, there’s one person I’m certain would agree with my little friend’s assessment: comedian-turned-motivator Steve Rizzo, whose new book “Get Your Shift Together: How to Think, Laugh, and Enjoy Your Way to Success in Business and in Life” launches right after Christmas.
Rizzo starts out by telling a series of stories — one about his own life as a Hollywood comedian opening for the likes of Eddie Murphy, Rodney Dangerfield and Jerry Seinfeld before he had the epiphany that his true calling was to motivate people, not “making it big” in the traditional sense. He tells another about his brother, who lost nearly all his intestines in Vietnam and has lived a full, wonderful life despite doctor’s foreboding prognoses.
Rizzo’s stories remind us that our circumstances impact our lives, but our attitudes and our responses create our final outcomes.
The rest of the book is broken into three parts, broken down to cover buckets of the “shifts” referenced in the title, laughter-drive attitude adjustments Rizzo says hold the potential to change your business and your life:
1. The shift to a happier mindset. Rizzo encourages readers to adopt the viewpoint that happiness is a choice, one they must consciously and constantly make if they truly want to have happy lives. He also makes a good case that most of us who are on a success path fail to enjoy the process — of achieving our goals and of daily living — and, thus, fail to enjoy the bulk of our lives.
The stress and other chronic negative emotions so many people live with on their way to reaching distant goals also hinder productivity and creativity, according to Rizzo, who prescribes personal choice as the key to shifting into everyday happiness and achieving your goals and dreams.
Advocating that happiness is a “personal right” we should simply, aggressively claim all through every day, at work and at home, Rizzo proclaims that “there is absolutely no reason why you can’t plan for the future, set goals, undergo your daily routine, deal with the unexpected and still make conscious choices to enjoy yourself while you do so.”
2. The instant shifting power of humor. Here, Rizzo focuses on helping readers practice their most important superpower: the power of choosing to think about the things that take place in their lives in a way that is positive, optimistic and happiness-promoting. He provides methodical guidance for learning how to shift your beliefs and feel better any time you need to.
Finding and focusing on the humor in tough situations is one of the key cures for negativity that Rizzo recommends, here and throughout “Get Your Shift Together.”
3. Shifts away from fear and the “big mouth in your head.” Rizzo, whose motivational stage name is The Attitude Adjuster, devotes the last section of the book to his insights on how to conquer fear (“the emotion from which anger, worry, guilt, self-doubt and all other negative emotions derive”) and something he calls the “Big Mouth in Your Head,” an “inner voice” that “plays off your deep-rooted fears and keeps you in a state of constant turmoil.
Laughter is, again, Rizzo’s go-to cure for these darkest emotions. He writes that “the moment you become aware of the deceiving ways of the Big Mouth and allow yourself to laugh in the face of fear, you enter into a higher state of consciousness.”
“Get Your Shift Together” is not a hard-hitting, step-by-step, chart-laden, personal growth book. Rather, it’s an entertaining, easy, yet inspiring read for those who are ready to start taking their happiness seriously.
Tara-Nicholle Nelson is a real estate broker, attorney and the author of two critically acclaimed books on real estate. Tara also speaks and writes on the art and science of life transformation at RETHINK7.com.
Gifts can be deductible business expenses, but IRS limits are strict | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate
Editor’s note: This column addresses IRS rules governing the tax deductibility of gifts claimed as business expenses. It should also be noted that the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) prohibits a person from giving or accepting anything of value in exchange for the referral of settlement service business, such as of title insurance, credit reports, appraisals, pest inspections, services rendered by a real estate agent or broker, or the origination of a federally-related mortgage loan. RESPA also prohibits real estate agents from receiving gifts or compensation in exchange for referring business to affiliated businesses.
The holidays are here. This means it’s time for gift giving. Giving gifts to clients and business associates are a great way to generate good will. But can holiday gift giving also general tax deductions? Yes, but subject to severe limits.
$25 gift rule
The basic rule is that if you give someone a gift for business purposes, your business expense deduction is limited to $25 per person per year. Any amount over the $25 limit is not deductible. If this amount seems awfully low, that’s because it was established in 1954!
A gift to a member of a client’s family is treated as a gift to the client, unless you have a legitimate nonbusiness connection to the family member. If you and your spouse both give gifts, you are treated as one taxpayer — it doesn’t matter if you work together or have separate businesses.
Company-wide gifts
The $25 limit applies only to gifts to individuals. It doesn’t apply if you give a gift to an entire company, unless the gift is intended for a particular person or group of people within the company such as the president or manager). Such company-wide gifts are deductible in any amount, as long as they are reasonable.
Example: Bob, is a commercial real estate broker whose best client is Acme Inc. Just before Christmas, he drops off a $100 cheese basket at the company’s reception area for all of Acme’s employees. He also delivers an identical basket to Acme’s president. The first basket left in the reception area is a company-wide gift, not subject to the $25 limit. The basket for Acme’s president is a personal gift and therefore is subject to the limit.
Incidental costs, such as engraving on jewelry, or packaging, insuring, and mailing, are generally not included in determining the cost of a gift for purposes of the $25 limit.
Entertainment tickets
There is a special twist if you gift a client with entertainment tickets, such as tickets to a football game. If you don’t attend the event with the client, you have the option of treating the tickets as a gift or as an entertainment expense. Gifts of up to $25 are 100 percent deductible, while entertainment expenses are only 50 percent deductible. So, with tickets that cost less than $50, you get a bigger deduction if you treat them as a gift. If they cost more, treat them as an entertainment expense.
Example: You pay $400 to a scalper for a pro football game ticket that has a face value of only $100. You give the ticket to a client but don’t attend the game yourself. If you treat the ticket as a gift, you may deduct only $25 of the expense. If you treat it as an entertainment expense, your deduction would be 50 percent of $400, or $200.
Inexpensive gifts
Inexpensive items such as key chains and pens are not considered gifts for purposes of the $25 limit so long as:
- they cost $4 or less a piece
- your company name is clearly and permanently imprinted them, and
- they are one of a number of identical items you widely distribute.







