While the risks can be large, sometimes the biggest paydays on Wall Street come from making a contrarian bet on the most hated sector on the planet. This was never truer than during 2012.
The housing sector, which brought the financial system to its knees in 2008 and continued to be an albatross around the middle class for the next three years, was the hottest trade this year as consumer confidence improved and as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low. The central bank even went so far as to purchase mortgage-backed securities.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) surged more than 75 percent in 2012 as shares of homebuilders such as Pulte Homes and Lennar doubled or nearly doubled and construction-related stocks like Home Depot jumped. More complicated mortgage-backed securities were among the biggest winners for hedge funds brave enough to buy them.
“They took the painful writedowns and survived the hit,” said Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ and author of The Big Picture blog. “And have you priced a mortgage lately? It’s 3.25 percent for a 30-year fixed.”
True to its function as a discounting mechanism, these stocks starting moving higher early on in the year in anticipation of a relatively sizeable increase in home prices.
It got there when prices climbed at a 4.3 percent annual rate in October, according to the latest seasonally-adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index. That was higher than many economists predicted, but no surprise for buyers of these stocks.
“Since the businesses that were able to survive the home construction nuclear winter became so lean, they were highly leveraged to a pickup in business,” said Mitchell Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy. “The homebuilding sector was one of those stories that you knew it would turn around eventually, but it took a heck of a long time.”
To be sure, the Home Construction ETF is down more than 60 percent from its high back in 2006. And during those days, home prices were posting double-digit annual gains on a monthly basis, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.
(Read More: Robert Shiller: Don’t Await Housing Boom)
Many investors think the easy money has been made in this trade and there will be tough sledding ahead again for the sector as unemployment stays elevated and foreclosures pressure prices.
“A lot of people seem to think that if the market turns around, that means more of the same,” said Professor Robert Shiller, Yale economist and co-creator of those very indexes, in an interview with CNBC this month. “We might see home prices go up a little bit above inflation, but it is not likely that we’ll see a real boom.”
So what’s the most hated sector going into 2013? Going by ETF performance, it’s natural gas with the U.S. Natural Gas Fund(UNG) down 27 percent in 2012. Feeling lucky?
Tag Archives: Armonk Real Estate
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Fiscal cliff will lead to a recession and drop in real estate | Armonk Homes
Fiscal cliff intro: In the United States, the fiscal cliff is a term used to refer to the economic effects that could result from tax increases, spending cuts and a corresponding reduction in the US budget deficit, beginning in 2013 if existing laws are not changed by the end of 2012.
The deficit—the difference between what the government takes in and what it spends—is expected to be reduced by roughly half beginning in the first days of 2013.
This sharp decrease in the deficit in such a short period of time is known as the fiscal cliff.
However, the CBO estimates this sudden reduction will probably lead to a mild recession in early 2013.
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Homeowners’ Equity Reaches Highest Level in Four Years | Armonk NY Homes
In the third quarter, homeowners’ equity rose nearly 18 percent over the level of a year ago to reach the highest level recorded since the second quarter of 2008.
Homeowners’ equity reached $7714.3 billion, a 5.2 percent increase over the second quarter and an 18 percent increase over the level of $6526.9 in the third quarter of 20011. In 2007, homeowners’ equity reached $1.02 trillion, but fell to $7050.9 billion in 2008, according to the quarterly Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report.
CoreLogic previously reported that as of the second quarter, improving equity helped the number of underwater homeowners fall to 10,779,000, a 5.2 percent decline from the first quarter and 8.1 percent less than a year ago. About 22.3 percent of all homes with mortgage owed more on their homes than those properties are worth. That was an improvement from the first quarter, when there were about 11.4 million underwater homes, amounting to about 23.7% of all mortgaged homes. The number of underwater homeowners in the third quarter has not yet been reported.
The value of real estate owned by households increased about $370 billion over the second quarter as more and more markets reported improving home values. The Federal Housing Finance Administration reported earlier that home prices through the third quarter are rising at an annualized rate of 4.34 percent and rose 1.08 percent over the second quarter.
Total household net worth-the difference between the value of households’ assets and liabilities-was about $64.8 trillion at the end of the third quarter of 2012, $1.7 trillion more than at the end of the second quarter. Household debt decreased at an annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter. Home mortgage debt contracted 3 percent, continuing the downtrend that commenced in early 2008. Consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 4 ¼ percent, the eighth consecutive quarterly increase







