Category Archives: Bedford Corners NY

Are Hedge Funds Blowing Bubbles? | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Last month the New Republic published a provocative article on hedge funds and real estate investing (Your New Landlord Works on Wall Street) by former TV producer David Dayen. He said out loud what many people have been whispering.

Dayen argued that Wall Street hedge funds, backed by billions from wealthy investors, are turning the once sleepy business of renting and managing houses into a festering real estate bubble that’s bound to burst and blow up everyone standing nearby, from tenants to hedge fund investors to homeowners to the entire national real estate economy. “It’s the next Wall Street gold rush, with all the warning signs of a renewed speculative bubble,” he said.

Another Bubble Brewing?

The essence of his case is that the billions hedge funds are pouring in the REO-to-rental business will jack up prices for distress sales far above their value as an asset.  Home values will follow and artificially inflate home prices once again, only to crash once more.  Two bubbles in less than ten years.  “There’s far less excuse for such nonchalance this time, coming just a few years after we saw the precise consequences of the bubble, and the means by which it grew,” he concluded.

In the interim, the funds will do a poor job rehabilitating the foreclosures they buy and make life miserable for their tenants, especially when compared to the “typical owner of a single-family property for rent is a local mom-and-pop business with a stake in the community who manage properties as a primary vocation.”

“For the most part, they have partnered with large property management companies to deal with day-to-day operations. The houses they purchase often come to them in substandard condition. And the management companies, with thin profit margins of their own, tend to renovate as little as possible before seeking renters,” writes Dayen.

Global luxury real estate market showing ‘strong momentum’ | Bedford Corners NY Homes

The international luxury real estate market remains relatively immune to the economic and political trends that drive the general housing market and is off to strong start in 2013, according to a report from high-end real estate affiliate network Christie’s International Real Estate.

The report compared 10 top property markets around the world: London, New York, Hong Kong, Paris, San Francisco, France’s Cote d’Azur, Toronto, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Miami. The company, a subsidiary of Christie’s auction house, also rolled out a new index, the Christie’s International Real Estate Index, which ranks markets across metrics such as record sales price, prices per square foot, percentage of non-local and international purchasers, and the number of luxury listings relative to population.

The 10 markets were also chosen for the network’s strong market share locally. Christie’s International Real Estate has 125 affiliated brokerages in 41 countries.

London, which topped the index, achieved a record sales price of more than $121 million for a residential property in 2012, followed by an $88 million sale in New York. In all of the cities studied except Dallas and Toronto, the highest sales price for the year exceeded $35 million, the report said.

Economist Robert Shiller has predicted U.S. home prices will rise only one or two percent a year in inflation-adjusted terms for the next half decade due to “lingering uncertainties” in world economies, the report said. By contrast, a study by the The Boston Consulting Group expects global sales of personal luxury goods, such as fine art, to grow about 7 percent annually through 2014, assuming there are no new major economic crises, the report added.

“Except where there is government intervention luxury residential real estate values will likely follow luxury goods and not the general housing market, and are therefore poised to increase in many of the cities studied in 2013,”  the report said. “This is particularly true as (high-net-worth individuals) turn their luxury investments toward nonconsumables and experiential luxury products that have lasting value.”

Forget housing and jobs … energy is the quiet killer | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Flashback to 2008 and you may recall the hot summer with skyrocketing gas prices that passed right before the financial markets collapsed.

What has been lost in all the financial news as of late is just how high energy prices soared in 2008, placing extreme pressures on consumers  before the meltdown.

Perhaps, high gas prices were not the cause of the crisis, but they certainly put a squeeze on spending, adding to the pain.

It’s easy to forget the precious role energy plays in personal budgets, but Deutsche Bank analysts are now warning us not to.

After all, with higher social security payroll taxes now in effect and unemployment above 7%, higher gas prices are the last thing consumers and economists want.

Here it is from the horse’s mouth. Deutsche Bank analysts explain their energy fears this way:

“We are keeping a watchful eye on energy prices, because gasoline prices have increased nearly 50 cents over the past three months, and this is occurring at the same time that households are adjusting to a 2% increase in the payroll (social security) tax. Our overall economic growth outlook for 2013 is largely dependent upon domestic economic drivers, so we are cognizant of the potential for rising gas prices to tax consumption by sapping households’ (and businesses’) wherewithal to spend.”

In other words, an energy hike could spook consumers, which in turn has the potential to derail confidence created by rising home prices and sales.

For-Sale Inventory Continues to Fall, But Is Relief on the Way? | Bedford Corners NY Homes

The shortage of available homes for sale has become a major trend in advance of the busy spring home shopping season. New research from Zillow indicates that while this inventory crunch is very real, it also could be beginning to ease somewhat.

The overall number of homes listed for sale nationwide on Zillow was down 16.6 percent year-over-year in late February. Zillow looked at all homes available for sale on Zillow on Feb. 24, 2013, and compared it to the number of homes available on Feb. 24, 2012. The analysis covers homes nationally and in the 99 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, and across bottom, middle and top price tiers.

Nationwide, the greatest year-over-year decreases in inventory were among more expensive homes, with the availability of top-tier properties falling 20.5 percent year-over-year. That was followed by middle-tier homes (-17.2 percent year-over-year) and bottom-tier homes (-9.1 percent year-over-year). Only five metro areas showed more homes for sale overall last month than in February 2012: El Paso, TX (+18.5 percent); Albuquerque, NM (+8.1 percent); Little Rock, AR (+7.7 percent); Fort Myers, FL (+1.5 percent); and Youngstown, OH (+0.2 percent).

“The supply of for-sale listings continues to dry up, driven in part by potential sellers trapped in negative equity and homeowners who won’t sell out of fear they won’t be able to find a suitable home to buy later,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “But the impact of constrained inventory will create the solution to the problem. Over the past year, inventory tightness has contributed to increases in home values in many markets. As home values rise, some homeowners will be freed from negative equity and able to list their homes, which will contribute to an easing of the inventory crunch. While this inventory is coming, it may still be a frustrating spring for buyers vying for what inventory is available. It’s important to be patient and not commit to paying beyond one’s comfort level in the heat of negotiations.”

Large California metros experienced the biggest decrease in homes for sale over the past year. Among the 30 largest metros covered by Zillow, four of the top five in inventory contraction are located in California: Sacramento (-48 percent); Los Angeles (-45.7 percent); San Francisco (-40.9 percent); and San Diego (-39.4 percent). Minneapolis-St. Paul (-36.7 percent) rounded out the top five.

But while the overall number of homes listed for sale in February was down significantly year-over-year almost across the board, the national drop was actually less severe than in January. In January, the number of for-sale listings was down 17.5 percent year-over-year, which could indicate an easing of the inventory crunch. Almost two-thirds (63) of the areas surveyed showed a smaller year-over-year decline in for-sale homes in February than in January.

As for-sale inventory shrinks, many potential buyers are turning to alternate means of finding their dream home. Over the past year, as the inventory crunch worsened, Zillow has observed a 132 percent increase in contacts to Make Me Move listings. Make Me Move is a tool current homeowners can use to tell others the price they may be willing to sell their home for, without actually putting it on the market — a “dream price” one might accept if it were offered. These listings have become one of the fastest growing listing types on Zillow, which include homes for rent, foreclosed homes, pre-foreclosure homes and homes for sale by owners or agents.

More information on our latest inventory research can be found on the Zillow Research Blog.

Year-over-year % Change In Homes For Sale Listed On Zillow, Feb. 24, 2013 vs. Feb. 24, 2012
Metro AreaBottom-Tier HomesMiddle-Tier HomesTop-Tier HomesAll Homes
UNITED STATES-9.1%-17.2%-20.5%-16.6%
New York-13.3%-23.2%-19.3%-18.9%
Los Angeles-56.8%-42.4%-38.2%-45.7%
Chicago-11.5%-15.2%-19.8%-16.2%
Dallas-Fort Worth-9.8%-20.6%-24.6%-20.7%
Philadelphia-8.2%-18.3%-25.2%-18.1%
Houston-16.6%-26.5%-25.5%-23.7%
Washington, DC-26.0%-21.4%-22.7%-23.3%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale18.1%3.5%-20.9%-6.9%
Atlanta-44.3%-33.9%-23.2%-32.1%
Boston-19.1%-28.2%-24.4%-24.2%
San Francisco-51.0%-40.0%-34.9%-40.9%
Detroit-18.3%-23.0%-24.4%-21.9%
Riverside, CA-38.2%-43.7%-29.6%-36.2%
Phoenix-42.2%-22.5%-20.7%-26.4%
Seattle-31.7%-13.2%-19.5%-21.2%
Minneapolis-St Paul-44.6%-31.2%-34.7%-36.7%
San Diego-43.0%-43.8%-32.1%-39.4%
Tampa, FL-15.0%-21.6%-22.1%-20.1%
St. Louis-7.0%-10.4%-19.9%-13.2%
Baltimore-16.4%-18.1%-16.3%-16.9%
Denver-27.0%-30.7%-35.6%-32.1%
Pittsburgh-2.5%-5.4%-4.0%-4.0%
Portland, OR-24.5%-15.1%-21.7%-20.5%
Sacramento, CA-61.5%-53.2%-33.4%-48.0%
Orlando, FL-28.6%-35.6%-21.5%-27.1%
Cincinnati6.2%0.9%-7.0%-0.5%
San Antonio-16.1%-21.3%-18.7%-18.7%
Cleveland-4.6%-7.4%-18.0%-10.5%
Kansas City-23.0%-32.4%-37.9%-32.4%
Las Vegas-30.3%-34.2%-31.2%-32.1%