Monthly Archives: June 2016

Private Residential Construction Spending Stalls in April | Chappaqua Real Estate

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending for April dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $439.7 billion, down by 1.5% over the March upwardly revised estimate. Private nonresidential construction spending was also down 1.5%, the first decline in 2016.

Within private residential construction, spending on multifamily and improvements both declined in April. Multifamily spending decreased to $60.0 billion after two consecutive months of strong gains. Despite this monthly decline, multifamily spending was 21.4% higher than in April 2015. Private construction spending on home improvements fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $142.2 billion, down by 3.2% since last month. Compared to 2015 April estimates, spending on home improvements decreased 3.5%. Single-family spending stood at $237.5 billion, virtually unchanged since March but up by 12.9% year over year.

The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the strong growth in new multifamily construction since 2010, while new single-family construction and home improvements spending have drifted upward at a more modest pace. NAHB anticipates accelerating growth for new single-family spending over the rest of 2016.

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The pace of private nonresidential construction spending retreated after three consecutive monthly increases. It fell 1.5% on a monthly basis, but was 3.4% higher than the April 2015 estimate. The largest contribution to this year-over-year nonresidential spending gain was made by the class of lodging (25.3% increase), followed by office (24.4% increase) and amusement and recreation religious (11.9% increase).

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/06/private-residential-construction-spending-stalls-in-april/

Home Prices in March – Bubbles Anyone? | Armonk Real Estate

The Case-Shiller (CS) National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 1.1% in March, down from 3.8% in February. The Home Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.4% in March, faster than 6.2% in February.

After the boom and bust, home prices have been recovering from the trough since 2012. As of March 2016, the CS national house price index was at 97% of the February 2007 peak. Nine years after their collapse, house prices are re-approaching their housing bubble peak, but now this level is in line with longer term trend growth.

Figure1_Mar16

However, housing markets are local and the pace of price appreciation varied greatly in different markets during the boom, so proximity to earlier peaks may not mean the same thing in different markets.

House prices in Denver and Dallas now exceed their mid-2000s levels but these markets were among the most stable during the boom with the smallest increases and the shallowest declines, so new peaks shouldn’t be seen as warning signs of new bubble conditions.

In contrast several markets have current house prices that are at or near their previous peaks, but these peaks were significantly inflated during the boom, suggesting these markets may have supply and demand imbalances that are re-inflating price bubbles. These markets include San Francisco, Portland OR, and Seattle.

At the same time several markets are at or near peak levels, but the earlier peaks and declines were relatively restrained. This current proximity to earlier peaks suggests price increases reflect house price recovery, not bubbles. These markets include Boston, Charlotte NC, Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York and Chicago.

San Diego and Los Angeles are markets that are not as close to their earlier peaks as some markets, but those peaks reflected some of the most inflated house prices. Even a sizable gap between current and peak prices may reflect some ongoing supply and demand imbalance. The Washington DC and Miami markets share a similar distinction.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/05/home-prices-in-march-bubbles-anyone/