Daily Archives: November 6, 2014

Builders Gain Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market | Bedford NY Real Estate

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market was up again in the third quarter, according to the latest release of NAHB’s 55+ Housing Market Index (55+HMI). The 55+ HMI release contains separate indices for single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Each is a weighted average of three components: present sales, expected sales, and traffic. The numbers are not seasonally adjusted, so they should only be compared year over year. On that basis, both were up in the third quarter.

The single-family 55+HMI jumped nine points from the third quarter of 2013, to 59—the highest third-quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008 and the 12th consecutive quarter of year over year improvements. All three components posted year-over-year increases: present sales jumped 13 points to 65, expected sales for the next six months climbed 10 points to 63 and traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 46.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2014/11/builders-gain-confidence-in-the-55-housing-market/

Mortgage Rates Move Higher for Second Consecutive Week | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Fredie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS^®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the second consecutive week amid better than expected economic data. This 30-year fixed-rate mortgage also rose above 4 percent for the first time in three weeks.

News Facts

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.02 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending November 6, 2014, up from last week when it averaged 3.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.16 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.21 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.27 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.97 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.94 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.96 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.45 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.43 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.61 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for theRegional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates continued to rise this week with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage eclipsing the 4 percent mark. The rate increases coincide with real GDP beating consensus expectations of 3.0 percent growth by growing at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter. The ISM Manufacturing Index also beat expectations registering 59 in October, up from September’s reading of 56.6.”

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Progress Toward Normal | Bedford Corners Real Estate

The economy and the housing market continue their gradual march back to normal as measured by the NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI). The index measures how close every metropolitan area is to their last normal level of single-family housing permits, employment and house prices. At the national level, the index rose to .90 in the third quarter from .89 in the second quarter.

The LMI has three components and two of them were responsible for the increase. The single-family permit index rose from .43 to .44 meaning total permits issued in the past three months were at 44 percent of the last normal period, which was 2000-20003. Home prices also rose to 1.3 from 1.27, which means house prices are 30 percent higher than the average in 2000-2003. Employment was the only component that did not change; remaining at .95 which means the last 12 months average employment was at 95% of the peak employment levels of 2007.

Of the 350 metro areas with their own LMI, 59 have a value at or over 1 meaning they have recovered and moved on from their last normal state. Seven metro areas were added to this list in the last year.

The recovered markets are dominated by energy producing areas with 15 in Texas, 8 in Louisiana and 3 in North Dakota. Smaller metro areas with universities or military bases have also done well. The change can be viewed in two ways. Progress toward normality depends on the speed of the recovery but also the length of the trip. Markets that sunk the most are moving forward but the collapse was so large, it will take some time for complete recovery to take place.

The map below shows five segments of the LMI from those markets beginning with the darkest green that are 98% or better toward normal down to the darkest red that are still less than 78% of the way back to normal.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2014/11/progress-toward-normal/