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An interesting example of the verity that no good deed goes unpunished. JP Morgan has pointed out that precisely and exactly because foreclosure on a defaulted mortgage is more difficult these days therefore they are lending less on such mortgages. This is, of course, something of a pity as one of the great strengths of the US economy has always been the speed with which economic mistakes get cleaned up. Whether bankruptcies (corporate or personal), foreclosures, loan defaults and so on, the system has always, until now at least, been very swift in cleaning them up. So that economic assets can be moved on to someone who can make better use of them.
Here’s the point that JP Morgan is making:
JPMorgan Chase JPM +0.86% & Co, the second-largest U.S. mortgage lender, is backing away from making home loans to less creditworthy borrowers after losing faith in its ability to recover much money from foreclosing on homes, even with government guarantees.
We could, of course, say that this is a good idea. They’re now not looking just to equity value of the home itself, nor to the various government guarantees, but also taking a closer look at the credit worthiness of the borrowers themselves. But there’s a little more detail as well:
“The cost to take a customer through the foreclosure process is just astronomical now,” Kevin Watters, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase’s Chase’s residential mortgage banking business in New York, told Reuters in an interview.
In addition to federal standards, states, and in some cases local governments, have written their own rules making it more expensive for banks to recover loan losses, he said. According to foreclosure data firm RealtyTrac, it took an average of 120 days to foreclose on a home at the beginning of 2007, just as the housing bubble was starting to burst. In the first quarter of 2014, it took 572 days, or more than 1.5 years.
In any economic system there will be those who make mistakes. And sure, it’s great that the system starts to analyse those who are likely to make such mistakes a little more. But on the other side it’s also true that the speed with which such mistakes are cleaned up is important. There’s nothing worse for an economy in general than having useful economic assets sitting unused simply because the bankruptcy (or foreclosure, whatever) process takes too long to come to some sort of resolution. We do, of course, want to be fair to people who get themselves into financial trouble. We also would prefer not to be turfing families out into the streets. But at the system level it is also hugely important that such mistakes be resolved, and resolved quickly. One of the reasons for the vibrancy of the US economy is that bankruptcy is both easy and not all that big of a deal. Mistakes can be written off and dealt with and everyone can then go on to try again.
read more…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/07/16/jp-morgan-if-foreclosures-are-more-difficult-then-well-lend-less-on-mortgages/
Given the recent string of record-breaking sales of ultra-luxury homes –$147 million in East Hampton, $120 million in Greenwich–one might get the idea that the value of high-priced abodes is skyrocketing. But that’s not the case at all. In fact, it turns out that prices for non-luxury homes are rising much faster.
To get at the real numbers, we asked Trulia TRLA +2.15% and Zillow Z +0.89% to cull their data on home prices. Looking at all for-sale, non-foreclosure listings, Trulia found that from May 2013 to May 2014, national home prices rose 6% in top-tier neighborhoods (zip codes where prices are in the top 10% for each city). Prices in neighborhoods not in the top tier rose at a significantly higher rate of 9.3%.
The trend is a reversal from the prior year (May 2012 to May 2013), when national home prices in luxury zip codes rose 9.2% and non-luxury rose 8.4%. (Before that, from May 2011 to May 2012, price gains in both luxury and non-luxury zips were about the same: 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.)
Looking at the data another way, Zillow explains part of the reason that non-luxury prices are growing faster than luxury. As the graphic below shows, the top third of the residential market fell less dramatically during the housing crash than the bottom third of homes. It’s also come up less in the past three years–but it had less far to travel to recover.
read more…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2014/07/16/data-driven-luxury-home-price-gains-slower-than-rest/
U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose in July to a six-month high as the view on both current and expected sales brightened, data from the National Association of Home Builders showed Wednesday.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index rose to 53 this month from 49 in June, the group said in a statement. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted the index would hit 50.
Readings below 50 mean more builders view market conditions as poor than favorable. The latest reading above 50 was in January, when the index hit 56.
“An improving job market goes hand-in-hand with a rise in builder confidence,” said NAHB chief economist David Crowe in a statement. “As employment increases and those with jobs feel more secure about their own economic situation, they are more likely to feel comfortable about buying a home.”
The single-family home sales component rose to 57 from 53. The gauge of single-family sales expectations for the next six months rose to 64, matching the highest since last September, from June’s reading of 58, while prospective buyer traffic edged up to 39 from 36 in its third consecutive monthly advance
read more…
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/07/16/homebuilder-sentiment-higher-in-july/