Business Insider drew on the latest data to identify the best housing markets for the next five years. The top 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q4 2012 and Q4 2017.
Business Insider also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak, to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market.
Click here to visit Business Insider’s list of top housing markets.
For the sixth straight month, home value appreciation was at or exceeded 5%, according to data from Zillow. More specifically, home values rose in April to $158,300.
Home values jumped 5.2% over year ago levels, Zillow ($59.41 0%)reported, reaching their highest level since June 2004.
A majority of the 365 metros — 55% to be exact — experienced home value appreciation in April from March. Sacramento saw the largest monthly increase, with home values jumping 3.4%. Las Vegas and San Francisco also reported monthly increases of 3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Looking forward, home values from April 2013 through April 2014 are predicted to rise 4% to approximately $164,648, according to Zillow. This is a drop from the 5.2% annual rate of appreciation reported between April 2012 and April 2013 and indicates a shift in supply and demand in some of the hardest-hit markets.
“April marks the sixth straight month of annual home value appreciation of 5% or above, the longest such streak since the height of the bubble in 2006. In the short-term, this has been welcome news for homeowners. But in the long-term, this cannot be sustained, and consumers entering the market today should not expect this kind of appreciation to last,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.
Humphries added, “Overall, we expect home value appreciation to moderate as more supply comes on line over the next year, but in some areas, runaway home value appreciation, combined with expected interest rate hikes in coming years, runs a real risk of pricing out many potential buyers. Home values in these areas will have to flatten or even fall to come back in line.”
Chicago was the only metro that did not experience year-over-year home value increases. More than half of the 30 largest metros covered saw double-digit percentage increases.
Home values rise 5% for sixth consecutive month | HousingWire.
Mortgage applications tumbled this week as refinancing and purchase applications continued their downward trend.
Application volume fell 9.8% from one week earlier for the week ending May 17, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Also posting significant drops, the refinance Index decreased 12% from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted purchase index dropped 3% from one week earlier, the industry trade group said.
“Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March last week, leading to the largest single week drop in refinance applications this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics.
He added, “The refinance index has fallen almost 19% over the past two weeks and is back to its lowest level since late March. Purchase activity declined over the week but is still running about 10% above last year’s pace at this time.”
The refinance share of overall mortgage activity slightly fell to 74% of total applications.
Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity inched up to 5% of all mortgage applications.
The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a conforming loan balance continued to escalate, rising to 3.78% from 3.67%.
Additionally, the average 30-year, FRM with a jumbo loan balance rose to 3.93% from 3.87% compared to a week prior.
The average contract interest rate for the 30-year, FRM backed by the FHA surged to 3.53% compared to 3.43% the previous week.
The 5/1 ARM squeaked up to 2.60% from 2.55%, and the 15-year, FRM jumped to 2.96% from 2.88.
Mortgage apps tumble, refis drop to lowest since late March | HousingWire.
Don’t let the white picket fences fool you.
Suburban poverty has grown faster than anywhere else in the country over the last decade, at a rate of 64% since 2000, according to “Confronting Suburban Poverty in America,” a new book by the Brookings Institute.
For the first time ever, the number of poor people in America’s largest suburbs outnumbers those in cities. It’s a nationwide trend that’s left pretty much no region untouched.
Eighty-five of the nation’s 95 largest metro areas saw a rise in poor households between 2000 and 2011.
“As jobs moved into suburbs—particularly lower-paying jobs in sectors like retail and hospitality—poverty did, too,” the authors write. “And job losses triggered by the Great Recession in industries like construction, manufacturing, and retail hit hardest in suburban communities and contributed to rising suburban unemployment and poverty.”
The increase in poverty was tracked by the Brookings Institute in “Confronting Suburban Poverty in America.”
Dallas metro area includes Fort Worth and Arlington. The increase in poverty was tracked by the Brookings Institute in “Confronting Suburban Poverty in America.”
Charlotte metro area also includes Gastonia and Rock Hill. The increase in poverty was tracked by the Brookings Institute in “Confronting Suburban Poverty in America.”
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
The Sold-to-List Price Ratio, one of the leading market indicators for predicting home prices, is helping analysts predict home prices in markets with varying economic condition, shortages of available housing inventory and its impact on home prices. Pro Teck Valuation Services’ May Home Value Forecast (HVF) Update analyzes the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco, and Chicago metro areas to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective and in current market conditions.
“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Aside from anecdotal stories, Home Value Forecast shows that one of the most reliable leading indicators to support this theory is the Sold-To- List Price ratio.”
In May’s Home Value Forecast Update, the authors examine how the ratio of the sold price to the listing price (Sold-to-List Price Ratio) typically fluctuates between 92 percent and 98 percent, but in very hot markets can exceed 100 percent. The update takes a historical look (1978 to 2011) at the Honolulu metro Sold-to-List Price Ratio and the annual percent change in the median condominium sold price.
“The Sold-to-Listed Price Ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices,” added O’Grady.
In addition, the authors highlight quarterly value back to 1994 for the Tucson, AZ single family market and determine that the Sold-to-List Price Ratio exceeded 100 percent during the bubble period in 2006, which was indicative of a very frenzied market. The authors also demonstrate that the indicator moves directly with the market itself and can be a useful tool for determining if a market is “hot” as in San Francisco or in “normal” conditions as in Chicago, where the market could transition to heated conditions in the coming year.
This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.
“Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros,” said Michael Sklarz, Principal of Collateral Analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast. “Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now.”
May’s top CBSAs include:
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA
Reno-Sparks, NV
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI
Salt Lake City, UT
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
“The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to thirteen Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month,” added Sklarz.
The bottom CBSAs for May were:
El Paso, TX
Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
Akron, OH
Spokane, WA
Chattanooga, TN-GA
Dayton, OH
Peoria, IL
Baltimore-Towson, MD
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Rochester, NY
Clarksville, TN-KY
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