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Monthly Archives: April 2012
U.S. homeownership hits record low: Gallup | South Salem NY Real Estate
The 62% of Americans who say they own their own home marks a new low since Gallup began tracking self-reported homeownership in 2001.
It’s down from 68% in 2011.
But those surveyed also said they thought it was a good time to buy and that they thought prices would rise this year.
While the recession and financial crisis took place in 2008-2009, homeownership rates didn’t begin to reflect the bursting of the housing bubble until 2010, when 65% of Americans reported owning their own home — the lowest level recorded before this year.
Fifty-three percent of Americans believe their house is worth more today than when they bought it, down significantly from 80% in 2008 and 92% in 2006.
Still, 70% of Americans surveyed said it’s a good time to buy a house.
Americans are also much more positive about the direction of housing prices this year than they were last year.
Thirty-three percent expect houses in their neighborhood to rise in price. Last year, only 28% expected prices to rise.
Results were based on telephone interviews conducted April 9-12 with a random sample of 1,016 adults in all 50 states.
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Rentals at College Towns | Cross River NY Real Estate
Many colleges and universities are already reporting record high applications and enrollments at their campuses. Unless a school is purposely trying to downsize (going for quality rather than quantity) the simple statistics of an ever-increasing number of people high school age (15-to-19 years old) assures a steady, rising stream of potential college students in the near future. The conversion rate from high school to college enrollment is no doubt rising, not because of better scholastic achievements but because of social pressure to attend college and from easier access to student loans and grants.
That means buying a rental property in college towns or in college areas of a large city may provide a good return on investment for those who are patient. The past demography data of the number of people in the 15-to-19 years old age group suggest an investment in college student rentals from about 1985 onward was likely to be difficult because of far fewer people in that age group. But investment from about 1995 onward should have provided good rental income.
Regarding the future, there may be a slight stalling in occupancy rate for the next 3 to 5 years. But after that, expect a huge growth in college enrollment. Students will pay the rent because of easy access to student loan programs. How the student loan is repaid after graduation is a separate question, particularly given that tuition has risen by over 600 percent in the past 30-years. Let’s hope student loans do not go the way of subprime mortgages (easy access but eventual default). These graduates are the future first-time homebuyers.
Government Home Price Data Shows National Growth | Bedford Hills NY Homes
NAR Research’s Home Price Monitor Series reviews national home prices by examining several widely cited national measurements. It is released monthly and allows REALTORS® to gain insight into the recent performance of national prices, factors affecting that performance, and the likely direction of prices in the months ahead. The Home Price Monitor includes the same data covered in the national media that clients will expect their REALTORS® to know and be able to comment on and provides different, more complete coverage of the information all in one place. Today’s blog post focuses on the recent release of the FHFA Price Index.
- For the first time since 2007, home prices measured by the government price index put out by FHFA that uses Fannie and Freddie loan data on home purchases increased in the year from February 2011 to February 2012.
- Monthly data from the same source showed that prices were up 0.3 percent nationally from January to February.
- Regionally, year over year prices showed growth in the Mountain, West South Central, East South Central, New England, and South Atlantic divisions. Small declines – less than 1 percent – were seen in other divisions. (For states by region, see the full FHFA report here.)
- One other notable observation, the FHFA house price index does NOT exclude distressed properties from evaluation. Other research has shown that distressed properties typically sell at a discount, and data series that attempt to exclude distressed sales tend to show better price performance.
- Get more information on other house price measures from NAR’s House Price Monitor here .
Mortgage Purchase Applications, Durable Goods | Bedford NY Real Estate
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses mortgage purchase applications and durable goods orders.
- There was a slight gain in the number of people submitting mortgage applications to buy a home in the latest week’s data. This data, from the Mortgage Bankers Association, however, does not have any information about approval rates and misses out completely on home purchases made with all-cash. This data has also not correlated well with home sales in the past year.
- The number of applications for refinances declined in the past week. But refinance activity year-to-date has been much better so far compared to the same period last year. Mortgage bankers who have been making a living solely off refinances should prepare for some increase in refinance through the summer months this year because of various government programs to help out underwater homeowners, but they should also prepare for a near-collapse in refinance business in 2013 as long-term mortgage rates will surely rise. Only the increases in mortgage originations for home purchases will be a source of income next year.
- Separately, durable goods orders recovered in March after a brief lull in the prior month. From a year ago, the heavy long-lasting manufacturing product orders are up by 9 percent. That is a solid gain. Due to huge cash holdings by companies that are bound to be released to the market and the housing market recovery, a possibility of a fresh economic recession in 2012 or 2013 is virtually zero.
- The GDP forecast for the first quarter is raised a bit to 2.8 percent growth. The second quarter GDP will likely be 2.5 percent.
International Transactions Continue at Two Percent of Market | Pound Ridge NY Homes
Sales of U.S. residential real estate to foreigners not residing in the U.S. continue to be in the 2 percent range, http://www.realtor.org/research/research/reps. Other NAR surveys have indicated that an additional 2 to 3 percent of residential sales are made to international customers residing in the U.S. Additional information on international activities is available at http://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportsintl.
