Monthly Archives: April 2012
Inflation, Producer Price Index | Bedford Hills Real Estate
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses inflation and the producer price index.
- Inflation may not become a problem. Producer prices show a decelerating trend with a price increase of 2.8 percent from one year ago, which is notably lower than the 6 to 8 percent rise over most of last year. The producer prices at both the intermediate and crude state of production also showed deceleration.
- Producer prices are not consumer prices but they generally have an impact over time, so a retreat in inflation pressure is overall good news. If inflation decelerates further then the monetary policy does not have to be tightened and can continue to remain loose for an extended time period. Also bond investors would not need additional premium in terms of higher interest rates to compensate for any future loss in the purchasing power of money.
- As everyone knows, gasoline prices and food prices have been clearly eating into consumers’ pocketbooks this year. But a slower pace in producer prices may portend no further acceleration to consumer prices. This does not mean consumers will be better off. It just means that the $4 per gallon at the gas pump, for example, could indeed stay with us, but it is now much less likely to reach a higher price of $5 per gallon any time soon.
- Because of some improvement in home sales and the anticipation of about a 25 percent jump in housing starts in each of the next two years, log and timber prices have been kicking higher.
- Separately, the number of people filing for unemployment checks for the first time rose in the past week, reversing the steadily declining trend. A rise to 380,000 in the past week is not anything alarming. The fact that it is less than 400,000 per week would be consistent with about 2 million net new job creations this year. Even in the best of economic times, there are always people who get fired or get laid-off each week and file for unemployed checks. Still, faster job recovery is needed to not only bring down the number of first-time filers, but bring measurably down the number of people who have been unemployed for more than half a year, which still remains at historically high levels.
Remarks At Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago Meeting, April 18, 2012 | Mount Kisco Real Estate
Jed Smith discussed the real estate outlook and associated economic risks at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago’s meeting of the Mortgage Partnership Finance and Advisory Council on April 18 in Chicago. Smith indicted that the current economic expansion is expected to continue for the next several years, but the current expansion is the weakest since the Great Depression and is characterized by high unemployment and underemployment, limited job growth, difficult credit conditions, and continued concern over a variety of basically unpredictable economic factors such as oil prices, sovereign state credit issues, and government deficits.
The good news is that Existing Home Sales, reported by NAR on a monthly basis, appear to have stabilized and seem to be on the upswing. According to the Realtors® Confidence Index survey, Realtors® are increasingly optimistic about the residential sales outlook. In addition, residential home prices seem to be stabilizing as inventories of homes for sale decline.
The bad news tempering the economic outlook is the jobs situation and government deficit. Job creation continues at well under 200,000 a month, and continued government deficits are not sustainable. Smith noted that some major policy changes in terms of government spending, taxes, and incentives are likely in the future—and there is always a risk that changing economic policies could make the overall economy worse.
Noting President Eisenhower’s famous quote about wanting a one armed economist (avoiding “on the other hand”) Smith noted that on a short term basis we should expect to see continued improvement in the economy and the residential and commercial real estate markets. Smith noted that there seems to be some additional pent-up demand that could come onto the market in the foreseeable future and that consumer surveys indicate that owning a home continues to be a key part of the American dream.
Fannie and Freddie Mistakes | North Salem NY Real Estate
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: the mere mention of them arouses passionate anger in many people. Rightly so. These two entities, which had taxpayer guarantees, ran their businesses as if they were privately owned. Fannie and Freddie made huge bets on the housing market. If it had been their money and their loss, then there would be no problem. But their mistakes took taxpayers down as well.
What went wrong and what needs to happen? Fannie Mae was born from the Great Depression in the 1930s to help bring mortgages to the ailing housing market of the time. Fannie was a government corporation (not a private corporation) with the single mission of increasing liquidity by buying up soundly underwritten mortgages. Because of Fannie and its government status, 30-year fixed rate mortgages became widely available. Canada and Britain, for example, do not have long-term mortgages, or least not at low cost, because they do not have a Fannie equivalent with government guarantees.
Fannie, as a government corporation, like the current the Federal Reserve for example, never needed taxpayer funding because its revenue always covered its cost of operation. Fannie was a very boring entity with very boring business model, always playing behind the scene of the housing market.
Then around 1970, Fannie was privatized. Freddie was introduced as a government sponsored enterprise at around this time to add some competition to Fannie. Even though the companies were private – with the right to pursue profits for shareholders – both still carried an implicit government backing in the marketplace, which we know in retrospect to have been an explicit government backing. But the mangers of Fannie and Freddie, even though they had easy borrowing costs because of their government ties, thought of themselves as profit-maximizers and were slowly and increasingly gambling with taxpayers’ money. During the good years, huge multi-million dollar bonus checks were paid out to managers. For many years, the Washingtonian magazine, which carries light local news about local events and restaurant recommendations, named Fannie and Freddie as two of the best places to work in the Washington D.C. area, evidently suggesting great perks to employees.
Then the housing market crash happened. And lo and behold – taxpayers were on the hook for massive losses. Such entities, with perverse incentives and the ability to mete out private profits during good times and taxpayer losses during bad times, should never have been permitted.
Currently the discussion is now over the reform, restructuring or even elimination of Fannie and Freddie. We should very mindful of what worked and what did not. What worked is the pre-1970s model as a government corporation that took a behind-the-scenes role. What did not is the strange model of private profit with taxpayer backing.
If the eventual goal is to make Fannie and Freddie into pure private companies then we should expect higher mortgage rates, more short-term mortgages, and the occurrence of total market freezes in times of a financial market crisis. Ask any commercial real estate practitioner about commercial mortgages in the past few years, mortgages which do not carry government backing. Ask jumbo loan borrowers about the mortgage rate they pay because of the purely private jumbo mortgage market. In addition, large ‘purely private’ financial institutions will always be considered too-big-to-fail and taxpayers will be asked to come to the rescue at some point in the future.
If the restructuring is to return these entities to their status as a government corporation then we will have steady mortgage liquidity, continuing availability of 30-year fixed rate mortgages, and probably no taxpayer bailout (as happened prior to the 1970s and like the Federal Reserve today).
It is my view that government can never produce interesting consumer products. A government bureaucratic culture is too stifling for entrepreneurs and innovators. The Apple iPhone, for example, simply could not be produced out of Washington. However, there is something that government may be good at and that is producing a boring product. There is next to nothing as boring as a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. It requires no innovation. If consumers have demonstrated good credit and are willing to stay well within their budget, then the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is one of the safest financial products on the market. And because of the government corporation status, consumers will be able to tap mortgages at a lower rate than would be possible under a pure privatization model. If the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was good for grandpa then it will be good for our grandkids in the future.
Though Fannie and Freddie still report headline financial losses because of legacy assets on the books from the housing bubble years, they have been raking in good internal profits on new mortgages underwritten for taxpayers since being taken over by the government in 2008. Fannie and Freddie, in other words, have in essence acted as if they are a government corporation and good bottom-line results have been flowing out for both consumers and taxpayers. That is why NAR is opposed to the pure privatization of Fannie and Freddie.
Rents Accelerating | Waccabuc NY Real Estate
By now most are aware of the rising rent phenomenon. Our Realtor® survey indicated only a sliver of the market will see falling rents, with a vast majority of areas experiencing positive though not higher than 5 percent rent growth. According to the ‘rent index’ in the consumer price index as measured by government statisticians, rents are rising by 2.5 percent.
Rent growth will, more likely than not, accelerate higher. Demand for rentals has been much greater than the supply coming onto the market. It is just inevitable that rents will rise at a faster rate over the next 12 to 18 months, unless there is another economic recession or if there is sudden ramp-up housing permits for multifamily units. Multifamily housing starts are slowly coming around. But they are still well below normal and there is a lag time between starts and eventual completion. In addition, the number of single-family homes available for rent is no doubt shrinking because of the overall decline in inventory of homes for sale. Therefore, rent growth in 2013 may reach 5 percent on average. San Jose may even witness 10 percent rent growth because of Facebook millionaires.
Are You Ready for B2B Mobile Marketing? | Katonah NY Real Estate
SEO Changes in 2012 | Cross River NY Real Estate
How is the Bedford NY area real estate market doing? | RobReportBlog
How is the Bedford NY area real estate market doing? | RobReportBlog
Clients are always asking “how is the market doing?’ Here are the numbers for the last six months compared to the same period the previous year.Homes selling for over $2,000,000 sales are flatSales $1,000,0000 to $2,000,000 sales down 20%Sales $500,000 to $1,000,000 sales up 6%Sales under $500,0000 sales up 28%The homes selling for less are doing better than the higher end.RobReportBlog | Katonah Real Estate sales down 5%, South Salem down 9%, Mt Kisco down 29%
RobReportBlog | Katonah Real Estate sales down 5%, South Salem down 9%, Mt Kisco down 29%
Real estate sales over the last six months compared to the same period last year.
Katonah down 5%
South Salem down 9%
Waccabuc up 200%
Cross River flat
North Salem up 6%
Mount Kisco down 29%
Bedford NY Luxury Real Estate market flat | RobReportBlog
Bedford NY Luxury Real Estate market flat | RobReportBlog
Over the last six months 20 homes have sold over $2,000,000 in the Bedford NY area. Last year the same amount of homes sold in the same period.










