Purchases of new U.S. homes plunged 13.4 percent in July, the most in more than three years, raising concern higher mortgage rates will slow the real-estate rebound.

Sales fell to a 394,000 annualized pace, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The reading was the weakest since October and was lower than any of the forecasts by 74 economists Bloomberg surveyed.

A jump in borrowing costs over the past three months may be prompting buyers to hold back, showing the difficult job ahead for Federal Reserve officials as they try to wean the economy from monetary stimulus while sustaining growth. The falloff in demand is in contrast to a surge in confidence among builders such as Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), which suggests they remain optimistic about the long-term outlook as employment improves.

“It’s definitely a rate shock,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae in Washington. “You could see another month or two of weak sales or it could go longer. This is a sustainable recovery, but we’ve also said it’s not robust. Along the way, there will be some hiccups. This is certainly a hiccup.”

Stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s posting its first two-day gain in three weeks, as investors weighed the housing data against signals from Fed policy makers on stimulus cuts. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4 percent to 1,663.5 at the close inNew York.

The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease to 487,000. Forecasts ranged from 445,000 to 525,000. The Commerce Department also marked down readings for each of the previous three months with June’s sales pace revised down to 455,000 from a previously reported 497,000 pace.

Economic Surprise

The difference between July’s outcome and the average estimate of economists surveyed was 7 times larger the poll’s standard deviation, or the average divergence between what each economist forecast and the mean. That was the biggest surprise since April 2010. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index, which includes companies such as Lennar Corp. (LEN) and KB Home (KBH), fell 1.5 percent in the first 30 minutes after the figures were released. It was down 3.1 percent at 1:12 p.m. in New York.

New-home purchases were 6.8 percent higher in July than the same period in 2012 on an adjusted basis, today’s report showed. The median price increased 8.3 percent last month from a year ago to $257,200.

That’s one reason builders are becoming more upbeat, with the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index rising this month to the highest level since November 2005.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-23/sales-of-new-homes-in-u-s-plunged-more-than-forecast-in-july.html