Despite the greatest price increases in years, affordability has hardly budged from six year peaks and in many of the nation’s most expensive markets, it’s still rising.
Year-over-year price increases through the final months of last year, which range from 4.5 percent/5.5 percent for the Case-Shiller composites to NAR’s 11.5 percent, have made less than a dent in soaring affordability ratings, especially in some of the nation’s most expensive markets in California and the Northeast.
The NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index has fallen only 4.3 percent from its January 2012 high. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index is down only 4.6 percent from its multi-year peak in January 2012. Both measures use median income levels, interest rates and home price data to calculate affordability on national and local levels.
However, in many markets, especially the nation’s most expensive housing markets, affordability is still rising. These include San Francisco, Boston, San Diego, Washington DC, Las Vegas, West Palm Beach, New York City, Orlando and Sacramento. In some, the pace of increase have slowed, but none have registered two consecutive quarters of affordability decline, as measured by Home Value Forecast’s Affordability Forecast, which uses regional household income trends with interest rates and local housing prices and to calculate the proportion of local households that can afford the median priced house
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Elliman Releases Palm Beach FL Market Report | Pound Ridge Realtor
“There was a significant uptick in Palm Beach sales activity this quarter compared to the results last year. We also observed a significant shift towards high end properties as indicated by the jump in overall market prices and luxury market prices. The longer marketing times largely reflected older inventory being sold off. The market improvement has been an encouraging development that we expect to see through most of 2013.
As housing conditions change in South Florida, we strive to present our clients with timely insights on the markets we cover. In a region where housing markets are often mischaracterized and misunderstood, we firmly believe that neutral market analysis is one of the best resources we can offer to enable our clients to make more informed decisions. Douglas Elliman is firmly committed to providing information and services to meet our clients’ needs. Explore our full market report series covering south Florida including Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach at http://www.ellimanflorida.com/market-reports/“
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Worst Of Foreclosure Crisis Is Over But Problems Remain | Pound Ridge Realtor
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Beige Book notes momentum in mortgage demand, real estate | Pound Ridge NY Real Estate
All twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated expansion in economic activity, characterizing the pace of growth as modest or moderate, up from the previous report, according to December Beige Book.
Overall, loan demand was largely unchanged in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco districts, with most of these districts posting a continuation of slight to moderate growth in total volume.
The New York, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas districts posted stronger demand than previously, while the St. Louis district reported a slight decline.
Generally, demand for residential mortgages improved in Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.
Commercial real estate lending was also noted as a particular bright point for the New York, Cleveland, Kansas City and Dallas districts.
However, lenders in San Francisco remained reluctant to lend to real estate investors outside of the multifamily residential sector.
Overall loan demand was significantly unchanged in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco districts, with most of these districts reporting a continuation of slight to moderate growth in total volume.
The New York, Atlanta, Chicago and Dallas districts posted stronger demand than previously, while the St. Louis district posted a slight decline.
The banks in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City and San Francisco districts posted improvements in asset quality.
Lenders in Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco were described as “competing aggressively” for highly qualified borrowers.
In particular, the Atlanta district the stiff competition could lead to loosening credit standards, as there was some indication that banks were more willing to increase tolerance for risk.
Chicago banks also posted some loosening of standards. In comparison, lending standards remained largely unchanged in New York, Cleveland and Kansas City.
Real estate activity expanded or held steady in 11 of the 12 districts for existing home sales and leasing.
Also, nonresidential sales grew in 11 districts and nine districts for nonresidential construction.
Overall loan demand was steady in five districts, rising in four districts and falling in one district. Six districts also reported improving credit quality and or falling delinquency rates.
For instance, manufacturing in the Chicago district grew with contributions from auto and housing-related sectors.
Product flowing into supply channels for auto production and housing construction also contributed to Philadelphia district gains.
Existing residential real estate activities expanded in nine districts, reporting moderate to strong growth rates.
For example, contacts in the Boston district attributed their strong sales growth to low interest rates, affordable prices and rising rents.
All districts reporting on pricing levels posted increases with New York and Chicago reporting only minor increases.
Five districts also reported falling housing inventories. New residential construction, including repairs, expanded in all but one district of those reported.
For instance, contacts in the Kansas City district posted that increased lumber and drywall cost limited construction, causing a decrease for January.
via housingwire.com
Home Prices Surge Despite Distress | Pound Ridge Realtor
For nine straight months, national home prices have been in the positive, and the gains are only getting larger. The latest reading for November shows a 7.4 percent jump from a year ago, according to CoreLogic. That includes sale prices of distressed properties, bank-owned homes and short sales. This is the largest year-over-year jump since 2006 when we were at the height of the housing boom.
“As we close out 2012 the pending index suggests prices will remain strong,” wrote Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic in a release. “Given that the recently released Qualified Mortgage rules issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are not expected to significantly restrict credit availability relative to today, the gains made in 2012 will likely be sustained into 2013.”
Some had predicted price gains of between three and five percent in 2013, but these numbers seem to indicate the market could outpace expectations.
While competition among investors for distressed properties drove home price gains in much of 2012, the non-distressed market appears to be catching up. Excluding distressed sales, home prices still saw a healthy 6.7 percent annual gain in November, and analysts at CoreLogic are predicting an even larger 8.4 percent jump in December.
“For the first time in almost six years, most U.S. markets experienced sustained increases in home prices in 2012,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We still have a long way to go to return to 2005-2006 levels, but all signals currently point to a progressive stabilization of the housing market and the positive trend in home price appreciation to continue into 2013.”
Just six states, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Alabama saw annual price depreciation. New Jersey still has a huge backlog of distressed properties, as does Illinois. Arizona, Nevada and California are seeing big home price gains, as investors there continue to inhale properties to take advantage of the very lucrative rental market. Still, even excluding distressed sales, Nevada saw a 12 percent jump in home prices.
There are, however, still looming headwinds to home prices, as banks ramp up foreclosures especially in states that require these cases to go before a judge. That new inventory could slow price gains in those states. Inventory, or lack thereof, is the primary driver of much of these gains. There were just 2.03 million homes for sale in November, according to the National Association of Realtors, a 23 percent drop from November of 2011 and the lowest supply since September of 2005.
Some are concerned that low inventory and not increased demand is juicing prices faster than is healthy for the housing recovery. If prices start to outpace earnings and employment growth, and then more properties hit the market this Spring, these gains could take a U-turn.
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Pound Ridge NY Homes | The next ‘fiscal cliff’ fight has officially begun
In the next stage of the “fiscal cliff” fight — news outlets are already calling it the “debt ceiling fight,” though the White House would probably prefer to think of it as a sequester fight — the debate will essentially boil down to two questions: What kind of entitlement and spending cuts will Republicans be demanding? And will Democrats manage to get revenue on the table? On the Sunday morning shows, leaders from both parties laid down their opening positions.
The challenge for the Democrats will be to make the case that changes to the tax code shouldn’t stop with the George W. Bush tax cuts, which they’ve so monolithically focused on in the lead-up to Dec. 31. On Sunday, CNN’s Candy Crowley challenged Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to answer whether he thought “that taxes have been raised enough on the wealthy.” Durbin’s response was revealing: Rather than focus directly on the tax treatment of the wealthiest, he framed the need for more tax revenue in terms of broader “tax reform” to get rid of loopholes and deductions, eluding to the need to eliminate tax breaks for the “1 percent”:
I can tell you that there are still deductions, credits, special treatments under the tax code which ought to be looked at very carefully. We forgo about $1.2 trillion a year in the tax code, money that otherwise would go to the government, and when you look closely, some of those things are near and dear to us individually and to the economy — the mortgage interest deduction, charitable deductions, deductions for state and local taxes, but beyond that, trust me, there are plenty of things within that tax code, these loopholes where people can park their money in some island offshore and not pay taxes, these are things that need to be closed. We can do that and use the money to reduce the deficit.
Durbin, in essence, outlined the Democratic strategy for the next round of the “fiscal cliff” debate: Find revenue to offset the sequester by promising to get rid of “loopholes” in the tax code, framed as common-sense tax reform. (Tax policy experts Len Burman and Joel Slemrod have some ideas about where to start.)
The recent outcry over the corporate tax giveaways in the recent “fiscal cliff” deal could help them make the case for finding more revenue, as Durbin suggested (though the White House’s promise for revenue-neutral corporate reform could complicate matters). “Max Baucus has been the first to say we need to sit down and look at these,” he said. “And who knows who represents the algae lobby on Capitol Hill, but they must have been very happy with the outcome.”
However, Republicans have made their opening position as clear as well: They believe the debate over tax revenue has been closed altogether. “The tax issue is behind us. Now, the question is what are we going to do about the real problem. … Now it’s time to pivot and turn to the real issue, which is our spending addiction,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos.






