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U.S. Housing Stability Improves for Fourth Consecutive Month | Cross River Real Estate

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Freddie Mac today released its newly updated Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®) showing the U.S. housing market continuing to stabilize at the national level for the fourth consecutive month. Thirty-eight of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, and 40 of the 50 metros, are now showing an improving three month trend. Three additional metros entered their benchmarked stable ranges of housing activity including Buffalo, Boston and Nashville.

News Facts:

  • The national MiMi value stands at 74.9, indicating a weak housing market overall but showing a slight improvement (+0.37%) from November to December and a positive 3-month trend of (+1.09%). On a year-over-year basis, the U.S. housing market has improved (+4.41%). The nation’s all-time MiMi high of 121.7 was April 2006; its low was 57.2 in October 2010, when the housing market was at its weakest. Since that time, the housing market has made a 31 percent rebound.
  • Sixteen of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values in a stable range, with the District of Columbia (97.6), North Dakota (97.2), Montana (91.1), Hawaii (89.9) and Wyoming (89.1) ranking in the top five.
  • Eleven of the 50 metro areas have MiMi values in a stable range, with Los Angeles (86.4), Austin (86.3), San Jose (83.9), Houston (83.3), and Pittsburgh (83.3) ranking in the top five.
  • The most improving states month-over-month were Delaware (+1.87%), Michigan (+1.28%), North Carolina (+1.18%), Oregon (+1.18%) and Texas (+0.85%) On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Nevada (+19.87%), Colorado (+11.42%), Rhode Island (10.52%), Illinois (+10.14%), and Ohio (+9.27%)
  • The most improving metro areas month-over-month were Detroit (+1.40%), Tampa (+1.28), Kansas City (+1.13%), Louisville (+1.12%), and Charlotte (1.04%). On a year-over-year basis the most improving metro areas were Las Vegas (+19.76%), Denver (+12.14%), Chicago (+10.93%), Providence (+10.35%) and Columbus (+9.36%).
  • In December, 38 of the 50 states and 40 of the 50 metros were showing an improving three month trend. The same time last year, 47 states plus the District of Columbia, and 47 of the top 50 metro areas were showing an improving three month trend.

Quote attributable to Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer:

“Housing markets are getting back on track. The national MiMi improved for the fourth consecutive month. Nearly 80 percent of the state and metro housing markets MiMi tracks are improving or in their stable range of activity. We’ve even seen the MiMi purchase application indicator increase 0.07 percent on a year-over-year basis. Low mortgage rates and moderating house price growth are helping to keep payment-to-income ratios favorable for the typical family in most of the country. In fact, Los Angeles is the only metro market with an elevated MiMi payment-to-income indicator whereas most other markets remain quite affordable. And of course, labor markets are generally improving.

“As we mentioned last month, we’re keeping an eye on markets with deep ties to energy. We’ve seen some deterioration on a month-over-month basis in some of these energy markets. For example, Louisiana has seen its state employment situation deteriorate over the last several months. A declining employment indicator has caused its MiMi score to move from 86.7 in April down to 80.2.”

The 2015 MiMi release calendar is available online. The February release of MiMi includes revisions to the Purchase Applications indicator based on the latest The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data.

MiMi monitors and measures the stability of the nation’s housing market, as well as the housing markets of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the top 50 metro markets. MiMi combines proprietary Freddie Mac data with current local market data to assess where each single-family housing market is relative to its own long-term stable range by looking at home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios (changes in home purchasing power based on house prices, mortgage rates and household income), proportion of on-time mortgage payments in each market, and the local employment picture. The four indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market. Monthly, MiMi uses this data to show, at a glance, where each market stands relative to its own stable range of housing activity. MiMi also indicates how each market is trending, whether it is moving closer to, or further away from, its stable range. A market can fall outside its stable range by being too weak to generate enough demand for a well-balanced housing market or by overheating to an unsustainable level of activity.

Consumer Lending (And Risk) Grows | Cross River Real Estate

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A recent release from the Federal Reserve Board indicates that consumer credit outstanding grew by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.9% over the year of 2014, accelerating from the 6.0% growth rate recorded in 2013. At the end of 2014, there was $3.3 trillion in consumer credit outstanding.

The expansion in consumer credit outstanding over the year largely reflected an increase in non-revolving credit outstanding. Non-revolving credit is mostly composed of auto loans and student loans. According to the release, non-revolving credit rose by a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.2%, $183.6 billion, accounting for 86% of the total growth in consumer credit outstanding for the year. The increase in non-revolving credit outstanding in 2014 marks the 5th consecutive year of growth since the 0.6% decline in 2009. Over this 5-year period, growth in non-revolving credit has averaged 8.2% per year.

Revolving credit, largely composed of credit cards, also contributed to the annual growth of consumer credit outstanding in 2014. Over the year, revolving credit outstanding grew by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5%, $30.3 billion, accounting for 14% of the total growth in consumer credit outstanding. Despite its smaller contribution to growth in overall consumer credit outstanding, revolving credit outstanding continues to show signs of recovering. Since declining by 7.6% in 2010, revolving credit outstanding has experienced annual gains in the subsequent 4 years. Moreover, each year of growth in revolving credit has exceeded the increase in the prior year. The 3.5% growth rate in revolving credit recorded over 2014 is the highest rate of growth since the 7.6% increase in 2007.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/02/consumer-lending-and-risk-grows/

Mortgages in 2014: Winners and Losers | Cross River Real Estate

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More and more home buyers are finally getting the financing they need, according the year-end Elli Mae Originations Insights Report. But not everyone fared so well.

Two out of three applications for a mortgage were approved in November and December, the highest approval rate in years. Some 67.1 percent of applications were approved, up from 31 percent two years ago and well above the 2014 annual average of 63.3 percent.

Even more importantly, today more people with good but not perfect credit scores are getting mortgages to buy a home. The average FICO score for all loans in 2014 was 726, 12 points lower than 2013 and 22 points lower than it was 748 in 2012. However, the average FICO for a mortgage still higher than the median average FICO score of 692.

FHA borrowers with even lower FICO scores are more likely to get a mortgage approval than conventional borrowers. The average FICO score to buy a home in 2014 was only 684, down from 695 in 2013.

Yet there’s bad news for student loan debtors. Debt to income requirements for purchase loans barely budged in 2014. Average front end ratios for purchase loans were the same in 2014 as 2013: 24 percent. Back end ratios loosened slightly, rising only from 36 to 37 percent. The data may reflect the impact of the QM Rule, implemented in 2014, which limits DTI ratios to 43 percent. For first-time buyers saddled with high student loan debt, this is not good news.

Home buyers applying for conventional financing saw very little improvement in average FICO scores during the year. FICO scores remain very high compared to other loan types. In 2014 the average FICO was 755 for conventional loans, far above the average of 726 for all loan types. By comparison, the average FICO for conventional purchase loan borrowers was 759 in 2013 and 763 in 2012. In two years, the average FICO score for approved conventional purchase loans has changed only 8 points.

Borrowers with the credit and down payment for a conventional loan were also more likely to get approved. A higher percentage of conventional purchase loan applications were approved than any other loan type. In December, 62.8 percent were approved compared to 63.2 percent for FHA loans and 7.1 percent for all purchase loans.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/02/mortgages-in-2014-winners-and-losers/

Mortgage Loan Rates Drop to 18-Month Low | Cross River Real Estate

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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly report on mortgage applications Wednesday morning, noting a decrease of 3.3% in the group’s seasonally adjusted composite index for the week ending December 12. That followed a rise of 7.3% for the previous week. Mortgage loan rates fell on all loan types during the week.

On an unadjusted basis, the composite index decreased by 4% week-over-week. The seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased 7% compared to the week ended December 5. The unadjusted purchase index fell by 10% for the week and remains 5% lower year-over-year.

Adjustable rate mortgage loans accounted for 6.2% of all applications, down from 7.0% in the prior week.

The MBA’s refinance index rose from 60% in the prior week to 64%, and the market share for adjustable rate mortgage loan applications dropped to 6.2%.

The average mortgage loan rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from 4.11 to 4.06%, the lowest since May 2013. The rate for a jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from 4.07% to 3.99%. The average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from 3.35% to 3.33%.

 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-loan-rates-drop-18-122553203.html

 

US homebuilder sentiment slips in December | Cross River Real Estate

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U.S. homebuilders are feeling slightly less confident in their sales prospects heading into next year, even as their overall sales outlook remains favorable.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday slipped this month to 57, down one point from 58 in November.

Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as good, rather than poor.

Builders’ view of current sales conditions and their outlook for sales over the next six months also declined slightly. A measure of traffic by prospective buyers held steady.

The index also found sentiment had improved in the West and Northeast, but took a step back in the Midwest and South, which accounts for half of the new-home market.

The latest reading reflects a housing market that is slowly recovering, said David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist.

“As we head into 2015, the housing market should continue to recover at a steady, gradual pace,” Crowe said.

Housing, while still a long way from the boom of several years ago, has been recovering over the past two years.

New home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 homes in October, the highest point since May. Still, sales remain sharply below the annual rate of 700,000 seen during the 1990s.

At the same time, home prices continue to climb.

The median price of a home sold in October was $305,000, up 16.5 percent from a year ago. November data on new-home sales are due out next week.

The steady rise in home prices has held back many potential buyers, particularly first-time buyers. Many lack the savings and strong credit history needed to afford a home, causing them to rent or remain in their existing homes instead of upgrading.

 

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http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2025241287_apxbuildersentiment.html

Steady Job Growth in October | Cross River Real Estate

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The economy continues to produce jobs at a modest pace, although wages gains remain weak according to the most recent labor market reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Improvements in both areas should help support growth in both owner-occupied and rental housing demand in the coming year.

res constr employment

In October, home builders and remodelers added 8,000 jobs to the residential construction sector on a seasonal adjusted basis according to NAHB analysis of BLS data. Over the last 12 months, the industry has created 131,000 jobs. Since the low point of industry employment following the Great Recession, the residential construction industry has gained 333,700 positions, although employment remains 1.132 million lower than the peak level seen in early 2006. Employment growth for the sector has been steady recently, adding on average just a little more than 10,000 jobs per month over the last six months.

U rate

Of course, national employment conditions are a key factor driving housing demand. According to the most recent BLS data, total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 214,000 on a seasonal adjusted basis in October. After upward revisions for September and August, the economy added 673,000 positions over the last three months. In the separate household survey, the national unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.8% in October. Real wage growth continues to lag, posting only a 0.1% pickup in October after a 0.2% decline in September.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2014/11/steady-job-growth-in-october/

This Minimalist House in Queens Packs in Three Apartments | Cross River Real Estate

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flushing_comp.jpgPhotos by Michael Moran/New York Design Hunting

If one had to guess where this pared-back residence would most likely exist, probably every city in minimalist-loving Japan would seem more likely than the truth, that it actually sits in the far reaches of Queens, New York. As architects Devin O’Neill and Faith Rose reveal in the latest issue of New York Design Hunting, the structure’s exterior form, with its compact shape and noted dearth of frill, is actually inspired by the Levittown-style more typical of the surrounding homes. While the edifice is an outward nod to its neighbors, the internal design has nothing to do with the New York architecture of old. O’Neill and Rose were working off an incredibly specific challenge from the client: figure out how to coherently accommodate three branches of a family into one single structure.

 

 

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http://curbed.com/archives/2014/10/13/oneil-rose-architects-flushing-family-home.php

Londoners threaten to flee the capital over housing costs | Cross River Real Estate

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Londoners are threatening to leave the capital in their droves as many struggle to pay rocketing housing costs, as wealthy overseas and domestic cash buyers prop up housing prices.

The city could face a “brain drain” as employees look to relocating to more affordable parts of the country, according to research conducted by YouGov for London First.

The not for profit organisation that promotes London to investors said the capital is going to feel the economic consequences of London’s housing shortage with nearly half of those polled vowing to leave the city if prices keep climbing.

The majority of employees (56pc) find it difficult to pay rent or mortgages costs and work in London while three quarters of businesses warned that a lack of supply and costs are a “significant risk to the capital’s economic growth.”

London employees, employers, councillors and more than 1,000 members of the public were all polled on behalf of business group London First and global construction consultancy Turner & Townsend.

 

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11120163/House-prices-Londoners-threaten-to-flee-the-capital-over-housing-costs.html

Behold, The Astounding Interiors of the Beekman Condo-Hotel | Cross River Real Estate

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[The atrium, which is to be the centerpiece of the hotel. This will be The Living Room, located within the atrium, a lounge by Tom Colicchio. Colicchio will also be offering in-residence dining service for the residents at the condo tower.]
18 images

At long last. The conversion of the beautiful Temple Court building on Beekman Street into a hotel, with a condo tower that will rise behind it, has been in the works for years. Onlookers have been teased and titillated by a video of the beautiful, decrepit space ripe with potential, plus exterior views and one tantalizing interior peek. But today—today a tipster sends along the first extensive look into the interiors of the hotel and condos. Plus one floorplan. And some view shots. And yes, it is impressive.

While you peruse the renders, recall that 68 condominiums will be housed in a 51-story glassy tower adjacent to the 1883-built atrium-filled beauty, which will contain 287 hotel rooms. The condos will start at $1.2 million for the 20 one-bedrooms, $2.95 million for 38 two-bedrooms, and $3.7 million for eight three-bedrooms. Apartments will range from 700 to 3,550 square feet, while the two full-floor penthouses will also have private outdoor space. Penthouse pricing has not yet been announced, so of course, those asks will be higher.

 

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http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2014/09/23/behold_the_astounding_interiors_of_the_beekman_condohotel.php

Real Estate will be Hurt by Higher Rates | #CrossRiverRealEstate

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The prolonged flat, stable period of mortgage rates came to an end this week as rates on the more popular types of mortgages surged, according to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.

Fixed mortgage rates’ biggest one-week gain this year pushed them to their highest level since early May.

Rates were climbing even before the Federal Reserve’s announcement Wednesday about its plans to wind down its trillion-dollar stimulus program.

The 30-year fixed-rate average spiked to 4.23 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 4.12 percent a week ago and 4.5 percent a year ago. For the past 12 weeks, the 30-year fixed rate had drifted between 4.1 percent and 4.14 percent. This is the highest it has been since it was 4.29 percent on May 1.

The 15-year fixed-rate average jumped to 3.37 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 3.26 percent a week ago and 3.54 percent a year ago. The 15-year fixed rate had floated between 3.27 percent and 3.22 percent for the past 12 weeks. This is the highest it has been since it was 3.38 percent on May 1.

Hybrid adjustable rate mortgages were mixed. The five-year ARM average rose to 3.06 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 2.99 percent a week ago and 3.11 percent a year ago. This is the first time in six weeks the five-year ARM has risen above 3 percent.

The one-year ARM average fell to 2.43 percent with an average 0.4 point. It was 2.45 percent a week ago.

“Fixed-rate mortgage rates rose this week following the increase in 10-year Treasury yields being partially fueled by market speculation the Federal Reserve might change its interest rate guidance,” Frank E. Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.

 

 

 

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/where-we-live/wp/2014/09/18/mortgage-rates-soar-to-highest-level-since-early-may/