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Fitch Ratings Calls for Housing Price Correction | Bedford NY Homes

Home prices are overvalued and price growth is not being driven by fundamentals but by technical factors that could easily change, advised Fitch Ratings Friday. The ratings service believes national prices are 10 percent overvalued, but will likely drop by no more than 2 percent due to inflation. Low prevailing mortgage rates, the limited supply of existing homes for sale (either due to the few foreclosure completions or the number of underwater borrowers who cannot sell), and the anemic levels of new home construction are facilitating affordability and feeding demand. They are also offsetting weak fundamentals like unemployment, low wage growth, Fitch said in a special report. In addition, Fitch stated it believes price movement is “highly dependent on the pace of distressed sales and liquidations.” For example, states such as Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia have been able to dispose of their distressed inventory quickly and have also seen “both steeper drops and quicker stabilization,” while states with long foreclosure timelines-New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut-may see price declines. In order to determine sustainability, Fitch conducted an analysis using its Sustainable Home Price (SHP) model. The ratings agency found 22 metros out of 41 are currently “undervalued” or “sustainable,” while five were categorized as “overvalued” by 5 to 10 percent. In 2010, 23 metro areas were overvalued by 10 to 25 percent. The report highlighted hardest hit metros such as Phoenix, Atlanta, and Riverside, noting they are now beginning to recover and are currently considered “undervalued.” New York and New Jersey, though, were categorized as overvalued by 10 percent to 15 percent, hindered by their large inventory of distressed properties and long foreclosure timelines, according to Fitch. And, high unemployment could hurt Los Angeles and Union, New Jersey and lead to a roughly 10 percent decline. On a national level, Fitch said price growth “is likely to be muted or even modestly negative in the near-term as liquidation volumes increase and expand supply, particularly in the lengthy judicial states where inventory has been off the market.” Fitch warned “short-term price movements can be misleading when the impact of distressed properties has been withheld from the market.” “Many models place a high value on price momentum, which can skew long-term projections. Another factor differentiating our model from many in the market is that our projections are in real terms as opposed to nominal dollars,” said Stefan Hilts, director of Fitch Ratings.

via realestateeconomywatch.com

Americans are Moving More Often | Bedford NY Real Estate

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Rising home values, affordable prices, pent up demand and fewer households underwater on there are motivating more American families to move more often. The average home buyer is expected to stay in a home only 13 years, down from a peak of 20 years in 2009.
Based on a long-run calculation that averages mobility tendencies over a number of years, the typical buyer of a single-family home-including first-time buyers as well as move up buyers- can be expected to stay in the home is now approximately 13 years, according to recent article published by the National Association of Home Builders.
The NAHB work updates a previous article that used data from the American Housing Survey (funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and conducted in odd-numbered years by the Census Bureau) through 2007. The new study incorporates AHS data through 2011.
The mobility tendencies observed in the 2011 data imply that the expected length of stay in an owner-occupied, single-family home would be about 16 years (the time it would take half of single-family buyers to move out). However, 2011 is likely to be an atypical year, so the article repeats the analysis using mobility tendencies observable in earlier years, with results as shown in the figure below.
If a single estimate is needed for how long buyers who move in today or in the near future can be expected to remain in their homes, the article recommends 13 years, based on the rounded average across all data points.
The article also shows that, over the 1987-2011 period, the expected length of stay in a single-family home has been consistently longer for trade-up buyers than for first-time buyers. Averaged over those years, the expected length of stay in a single-family home is about 11 and a half years for first-time buyers, compared to 15 years for buyers who have owned a home before.
The National Association of Realtors reported that the average tenure is still nine years in its recent 2012 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, up from six years before the housing crash in 2007, but the average buyers expectation is to live in theuir new home 15 years.

via realestateeconomywatch.com

Seth’s Blog: What people buy when they buy something on sale | Bedford Realtor

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via sethgodin.typepad.com

New Florida bill would speed up the foreclosure process | Bedford NY Real Estate

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via miamiherald.com

Bedford NY Realtor | Failing to Start, Why We Accept Mediocrity and How to Change

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via socialmediaexaminer.com

Foreclosures for sale: deals disappear on foreclosures for sale | Bedford NY Real Estate

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In four-county Metro Orlando, a RealtyTrac snapshot of more than 1,300 foreclosure sales in July and August revealed an average discount of 4 percent below the homes’ market value — only slightly more than what banks are shaving off repossessed homes nationwide.
“This is likely the result of home prices stabilizing and even increasing in many markets, along with a limited supply of bank-owned properties, giving the edge to the sellers,” said Daren Blomquist, a RealtyTrac vice president. “Unlike an individual homeowner selling his or her home, the banks are not emotionally attached to these properties or to a certain value that they think the properties are worth.”
The local price-slashing varies widely by lender and location, however.
Some Metro Orlando locales reported deep discounts in bank-owned homes — from 15 percent to 29 percent below market value, according to RealyTrac’s July-August sample. Those areas, which are disparate geographically and in terms of income levels, include:
Orlando’s 32806 ZIP code, an eclectic area between downtown and Conway.
Lady Lake, a haven for retirees in Lake County.
Orlando’s 32807 ZIP, with the working-class subdivisions of Azalea Park.
Maitland, a city of middle-class and lakefront neighborhoods.
Orange County’s 32818 ZIP code, which includes parts of the historically low-income Pine Hills area.
Discounts on bank-owned homes are important not only to deal hunters but also to other homeowners. Orlando’s housing market is so thin on for-sale listings that, although it could absorb more foreclosed homes without crippling property values, the market’s recovery could slow if banks slash prices to move their distress sales faster. And getting rid of properties quickly is attractive to lenders trying to minimize legal costs, homeowner-association dues, property taxes, repair bills and other fees.
Orlando real-estate broker Dean Asher, president of the statewide industry group Florida Realtors, said the market is moving in a direction that is conducive to investment groups armed with cash buying up multiple residential properties directly from large lenders. Homebuyers dependent on financing, he added, are having a difficult time competing for the bargains.
“Years ago, we would have gotten these [foreclosures] off the books and cleaned up” the market, Asher said. “We’re moving forward, but [banks,] they’ve been holding on to these assets, and as they’re tightening the discount, they are discouraging ordinary buyers.”
According to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, the much-larger gap between prices paid for bank-owned homes and those paid in “normal” home sales has also been shrinking. For example, in the Realtors’ core Orlando market, the single-family homes sold by lenders had a median price of $90,000 — or 42 percent less than November’s conventional sales, which had a midpoint price of $155,048. A year earlier, in November 2011, the gap had been 46 percent.

via articles.orlandosentinel.com

Construction Spending in Bedford New York | Bedford NY Real Estate

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via economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org

Bedford NY Real Estate | YouTube Videos That Missed The Top 10 Cut In 2012

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When YouTube released their Top 10 Viewed Videos of 2012, that meant a lot of videos that reached a very high level of engagement were left out of the party. Last year, I found a handful of videos that also deserved to be mentioned. YouTube is still hard to navigate when you are trying to narrow down a search properly for this type of list, as I complained about in that very post. YouTube very much doesn’t want you to know this stuff. But hey, it’s our secret. The following videos either didn’t make the cut because they didn’t meet certain criteria or they didn’t collect enough views in time for the Top 10 list.
The Videos That Didn’t Make It: Other Top YouTube Smashes From 2012
I had to weed through 40 pages of a vague search to come up with these. Some of these videos probably should have made the list. Some of these would have made the list if they had been released earlier. We’ve seen some absolutely amazing hits just in the past month alone. Oh, by the way, “Gangnam Style” got another 90 million views since it hit a billion. You ever get scared something is too popular? Anyway, let’s go through the videos that didn’t make the cut:
Dragon Baby (Patrick Bolvin. 24 million views)
Look, if you put a baby in a YouTube video, the chances of it doing well rise exponentially. If you make that baby fight a baby stuffed dragon with wicked awesome special effects, well, love is guaranteed:
‘My First Hardcore Song’ by 8 yr old Juliet OFFICIAL (thetinaxo. 24 million views)
If you can’t laugh and have fun with this, you are completely empty inside. This little girl rocks the house and lets out her inner L7 about her dog, fishes, and toys:
Golden Eagle Snatches Kid (MrNuclearCat. 40 million views)
This is a video that would have for certain made the top 10 had it been released earlier. Released a scant 2 weeks ago, this special effects video blew up and is being credited to three students from Canada’s National Animation and Design Centre:
I CAN SWING MY SWORD! (Minecraft Song) (Tobuscus. 25 million views)
It’s about guaranteed that if you can do something creative with Minecraft you can leverage its popularity to swing a huge hit, as Tobuscus did with this song:
“Minecraft Style” – A Parody of PSY’s Gangnam Style (Music Video) (Captain Sparklez. 40 million views)
Captain Sparklez did double-whammy leveraging with a combination of “Gangnam Style” and Minecraft. We talked about this one a couple of months ago, and it has since blasted off to over 40 million views:
DC SHOES: KEN BLOCK’S GYMKHANA FIVE: ULTIMATE URBAN PLAYGROUND; SAN FRANCISCO (DCshoesFILM. 37 million views).
We wrote about this amazing Ken Block ad for DC Shoes, which has become an annual tradition and gives us awesome footage of things we wish we could do if only we had the skills and a closed course:
Tomorrowland 2012 | official aftermovie (TomorrowlandChannel. 37 million views).
There’s a huge electronic dance music festival in Boom, Belgium and this 20 minute video takes in all the highlights. I had no idea something like this was so popular:
Extremely Scary Ghost Elevator Prank in Brazil (dogproduction. 55 million views)
Released just over a month ago is this fantastic elevator scare prank, which would have definitely been in the top 10 had it been released earlier. Unsuspecting passengers have to deal with a creepy girl and her creepy doll…both of which were not on the elevator when they got on:
Extremely Scary Corpse Elevator Prank in Brazil (dogproduction. 12 million views)
Just a week later we got to see the new prank, which raked in a bunch of views on its own:
So Real It’s Scary (LGBlogUK. 17 million views)
While we’re at it, we might as well continue this Halloween elevator madness with this ad from LG (which we talked about here), which made their new TV stand in as the floor of an elevator and got some passengers’ heart racing:
PEOPLE GETTING SCARED!!! (Thomas J. Tom. 25 million views).
Pranksters continue scaring the living daylights out of people with this hodgepodge of tomfoolery:
The Ultimate Girls Fail Compilation 2 (failarmy. 37 million views).
We men sometimes think of women as infallible when it comes to grace and intelligence and basically staying out of dangerous situations. Oh, how this video proves that thought wrong:
Master Chief vs. Leonidas. Epic Rap Battles of History Season 2 (ERB. 45 million views)
Either this genuinely didn’t make the cut, or YouTube wanted to make sure they “spread the wealth” because ERB’s “Obama Vs. Romney” was already there and they didn’t want to use three ERB videos. That’s kind of like not wanting to give someone the Oscar because they’ve won too many, but anyway, Epic Rap Battles had two other videos that could have made the top 10. Here’s one, pitting Master Chief from Halo and Leonidas from 300:
Mario Bros vs Wright Bros. Epic Rap Battles of History Season 2 (ERB. 40 million views).
ERB combined with Internet sensations Rhett and Link to create this battle between the video game plumbers and the forefathers of flight. We took a look at this one earlier in the year as well:
The Key of Awesome! : Call Me Maybe PARODY! The Key Of Awesome #58 (barelypolitical. 21 million views).
Barely Political scored another parody hit of a popular song, this time casting the girl as one of those “Fatal Attraction” types:
The Cinnamon Challenge … by GloZell and her Big Behind Earrings (glozell1. 24 million views).
This is YouTube’s bread and butter: people doing things that they shouldn’t and then reacting to it in a hilarious way:
We hope you had a great time in 2012 watching videos…now it’s on to 2013 and hopefully even more fantastic content!