Category Archives: Waccabuc NY

Consumers’ views on home prices remain at record high | South Salem NY Real Estate

Home price expectations remained at a high in March, with almost half expecting an increase in the next year, according to data released Monday by government controlled mortgage buyer Fannie Mae.

The share of respondents who said home prices will increase in the next 12 months remained at 48% in March, matching February’s record high, according to Fannie

/quotes/zigman/226360 /quotes/nls/fnma FNMA . That share is up from 35% in March 2012. The data go back to June 2010, so after the housing bubble burst. The average 12-month home price change expectation fell slightly to 2.7%.

“Despite an uptick in concern expressed about the direction of the economy, it appears consumers believe that the housing recovery will march on,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, in a statement.

Another 37% of respondents said they expect prices to stay in the same in the coming year, while 10% expect prices to decline. Fannie’s poll included 1,004 Americans, and was conducted between March 2 and March 25.

Consumers’ upbeat views on housing prices follow months of positive news on the housing market. Year-over-year prices have been gaining since mid-2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index that follows 20 cities. Despite recent gains, home prices remain about one-third below bubble peaks.

However, when it comes to their personal finances and the economy, Americans remain concerned. According to Fannie Mae, the share of respondents who said the economy is on the right track fell three percentage points to 35% in March from 38% in February. Meanwhile, those expecting their personal-financial situation to worsen over the next 12 months rose four percentage points to 21% from 17%. These findings echo a recent report on consumer confidence that found gloomier expectations among respondents.

Why aren’t views on personal finances keeping pace with expectations for home prices? The answer may be found in wealth effects, which track increased spending from those who feel more confident given sustained asset-price gains.

“There is a growing understanding that households respond differently to wealth gains that are simply recover­ing from past losses, as opposed to gains that lift wealth to new highs. The former results in more muted wealth effects,” wrote Beata Caranci, deputy chief economist at TD Economics, in a Monday research note.

–Ruth Mantell

Read The Tell on Twitter @thetellblog

Read Ruth on Twitter @ruthmantell

CB Previews International Draws the Line on Pocket Listings | Waccabuc Real Estate

As inventories shrink and buyers frantically search for homes to buy off-market, “pocket listings” are becoming more prevalent, especially in luxury markets where the appeal of keeping the entire commission can be hard to resist for listing brokers.

However, many real estate leaders are pushing back against the practice of selling homes outside multiple listing services, which often results in the listing agency representing the buyer as well and earning both sides of the commission, known as dual agency. They’re concerned that large numbers of pocket listings will compromise the effectiveness of MLSs and skew the level playing field that is a hallmark of the cooperative system. The absence from the MLS of large numbers of properties for sale, especially if they are concentrated in a single price tier like luxury, diminishes the accuracy of listings-based market price reports that consumers and professionals rely upon to track market trends. Above all, these leaders worry that sellers are getting talked into staying off the MLS when it is not in their best interest.

In recent years, celebrities in the LA market and elsewhere have chosen not to list their homes to avoid publicity. More and more sellers of higher priced homes are using off-market sales techniques to test the market before for their homes before going onto the MLS. In super-heated Northern California markets, where prices are appreciating at double digit monthly rates and inventories are down by 40 percent on the year, sellers don’t need the MLS to find buyers and pocket listings have been on the increase. A number of agencies and at least one Web site now specialize in serving the pocket listing market, using social media to market pocket listings to networks of agents. (See Pricey Pocket Listings Put a Dent in MLS Dominance).

Off-market sales techniques and dual agency can cause serious legal problems for brokers and agents even in states like California where dual agency is legal. Concerned about the rise of off-market sales, the California Association of Realtors’ legal department distributed a Q&A on April 4 that discussed how pocket listings can lead to a civil suit for violating California Real Estate law for breach of fiduciary duty, how withholding information about listings violates the Realtor Code of Ethics and how the failure to make information available to all buyers can lead to federal Fair Housing Act violations. CAR is also hosting a webinar April 24 for members on “The Pressing Issue of Pocket Listings.”

In an interview with Real Estate Economy Watch, one of the nation’s leaders in luxury real estate spoke out against the pocket listings and shared her concern for their impact on organized real estate.

“If the seller is fully informed and provides written consent not to place their home on the MLS, then I’m not concerned,” said Betty Graham, president of Coldwell Banker Previews International/NRT, the Realogy franchise’s luxury brand. “But I’m not sure that’s the case in many of the pocket listings I have seen. The fact is that our first responsibility is a fiduciary responsibility to act in the seller’s best interest and with a pocket listing there is a great potential to violate that fiduciary responsibility.”

Ms. Graham has been observing pocket listings in the LA celebrity market for years. Before heading up Previews International, she was the president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in the greater Los Angeles area. In her 30 years as an agent and broker in Malibu and elsewhere in the LA market, she represented such luminaries as Rod Steiger, Dustin Hoffman, Charles Bronson, George C. Scott, Cecily Tyson, Cleavon Little, LeVar Burton, Madonna, Sean Penn, plus five transactions with Johnny Carson.

“Often sellers will start out off the MLS, and then change their mind. Jennifer Anniston didn’t list her Beverly Hills house on the MLS but after a month or so it didn’t sell. When she put it on the MLS she sold it immediately,” she said. Candy Spelling, widow of the late TV producer Aaron Spelling and mother of actress Tori, tried to sell her $150 million home as a pocket listing for two years and it sold in a few months once she listed it. The sale was the top price ever paid for a home in Southern California.

Ms. Graham said another risk in marketing pocket listings is private showings to select buyers. “Many luxury buyers want to be the first to see a new listing, and sometimes they will pay more if they are. But if they are not, their interest in that property may be diminished,” she said.

“When you list on the MLS, it is a level playing field where all buyers have equal access,” she said.

Finally, there is the problem caused when a seller hires more than one agency to handle a pocket listing. “A seller will often tell several brokers they can have a ‘pocket’ on the listing. Which listing broker should a buyer work through? This creates confusion in the brokerage community for a broker representing a buyer,” she said.

Coldwell Banker Previews International is a dominant force in Beverly Hills and the greater LA celebrity market, and under Betty Graham’s leadership, a force discouraging the use of pocket listings. Advocates of pocket listings, like Andrew Clark, co-founder of Pocketlistings.net, deny the ethical and legal concerns raised by Betty Graham, CAR and others, and talk about the benefits for brokers rather than the consequences for sellers.

“Pocket Listings are not illegal, they are not unethical, and they are not unfair. The only people that complain about them are the agents that don’t have the wherewithal to adjust to the changing landscape that is marketing real estate for sale. It’s high time an alternative to MLS comes along, and it’s just a matter of time before MLS, as we know it today, either adapts or goes away,” writes Clark. “The argument about hoarding commissions is just untrue.”

Housing prices appear strong on the surface | South Salem NY Real Estate

On the last Tuesday of each month, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices are released. Based on the most recent release of this information, average U.S. residential home prices have increased approximately 8.1 percent over the past 12 months.

Driven by a combination of persistently low mortgage borrowing rates, moderately improved unemployment rates and a reported scarcity of supply, the increased demand for the average residential home is pushing prices upward. Additionally, family formation rates are recovering from the downturn experienced during the recent recession.

Leading the price recovery over the past 12 months are areas such as Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas. Case-Shiller reports these areas have seen price increases of 23 percent, 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively, over the past 12 months. Some of these locations are also areas that suffered some of the greatest price declines several years ago.

A material portion of the overall demand for existing residential housing units is being driven by institutional buyers. Some estimates indicate as much as 20 percent to 30 percent of residential home purchases over the past couple years have come from various types of institutional buyers.

Fannie Mae sees housing upturn as ‘intact’ | Waccabuc NY Real Estate

Despite some bumps in the road, the housing upturn is “intact” and rising home prices are expected to boost household net worth and offset fiscal tightening, according to a monthly economic outlook released today by economists at Fannie Mae.

Tight inventories continue to restrain sales of existing homes. Although the number of homes on the market grew by nearly 10 percent from January to February, the 1.94 million homes for sale represented a 19.2 percent decline from the same time a year ago.

Pending sales of existing homes dipped 0.4 percent from January to February, but remained at their second-highest level in nearly three years, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

New-home sales also slipped from January to February and builder confidence was down for the second month in a row in March. But housing starts reached a near five-year high in February and new-home sales climbed 12.3 percent year-over-year.

Fannie Mae economists project that existing-home sales, which were up 9.4 percent last year, wlll grow by an additional 10.5 percent this year, to 5.15 million homes, and by 6.2 percent in 2014, to nearly 5.5 million homes. Sales of new single-family homes are expected to post even stronger growth — 15.1 percent this year and 44.1 percent in 2014.